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🇮🇷🇺🇸 A cruise missile kills a target once. An interceptor gets spent every single time something flies at you, and it takes more than one per incoming. That asymmetry is the whole war, says veteran correspondent Elijah Magnier. The U.S. still has bombers, carriers, subs and regional bases. What...

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Mario Nawfal

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114,586 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't need to win. It just needs to not lose. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier on why that distinction is the whole ballgame. Elijah's read: since 1945 the U.S. has sold itself as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. If Iran controls Hormuz, that image cracks. And the dollar sits downstream of that image. Now add Bab el-Mandeb. Another 8 to 9 million barrels a day disrupted. Two chokepoints at once is when outside powers stop watching. As for another MOU: he says the last one was violated almost immediately. So what would a second piece of paper actually be worth? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
6:06

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't need to win. It just needs to not lose. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier on why that distinction is the whole ballgame. Elijah's read: since 1945 the U.S. has sold itself as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. If Iran controls Hormuz, that image cracks. And the dollar sits downstream of that image. Now add Bab el-Mandeb. Another 8 to 9 million barrels a day disrupted. Two chokepoints at once is when outside powers stop watching. As for another MOU: he says the last one was violated almost immediately. So what would a second piece of paper actually be worth? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

80,032 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is playing a brutal war of economics: launch cheap drones and force the U.S. and its Gulf allies to burn expensive, increasingly scarce interceptors. “If these drones and missiles reach or do not reach the desired objective on the ground, they have reached the desired objective in the air.” Every interception can therefore count as a success. Iran is not only targeting bases and ships, but the very stockpile defending them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
1:52

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is playing a brutal war of economics: launch cheap drones and force the U.S. and its Gulf allies to burn expensive, increasingly scarce interceptors. “If these drones and missiles reach or do not reach the desired objective on the ground, they have reached the desired objective in the air.” Every interception can therefore count as a success. Iran is not only targeting bases and ships, but the very stockpile defending them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

79,840 просмотров • 26 дней назад

🇮🇷 By hitting Jordan, Iran is draining the exact interceptor stockpiles that Israel relies on as its backup missile defense Veteran war correspondent and military analyst Elijah Magnier, breaks it down: Gulf countries have all their infrastructure above ground, Iran has all its missiles buried underground, and 70 days of low-intensity conflict has let Iran quietly restock while the other side depletes. Oil for oil, power for power. Everybody suffers equally, and Iran can last longer. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
2:00

🇮🇷 By hitting Jordan, Iran is draining the exact interceptor stockpiles that Israel relies on as its backup missile defense Veteran war correspondent and military analyst Elijah Magnier, breaks it down: Gulf countries have all their infrastructure above ground, Iran has all its missiles buried underground, and 70 days of low-intensity conflict has let Iran quietly restock while the other side depletes. Oil for oil, power for power. Everybody suffers equally, and Iran can last longer. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

167,550 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇶🇦 One chokepoint could erase 15 million barrels of oil per day and over 20% of the world's gas supply simultaneously. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "Iran is not looking for concessions. Iran is imposing conditions, which is a big difference." The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a bargaining chip. It's a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
5:57

🇮🇷🇶🇦 One chokepoint could erase 15 million barrels of oil per day and over 20% of the world's gas supply simultaneously. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "Iran is not looking for concessions. Iran is imposing conditions, which is a big difference." The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a bargaining chip. It's a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

127,822 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Gulf is entering a dangerous new phase as the U.S. and Iran move toward a direct military collision over the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah Magnier talked about why Trump is doubling down on "Project Freedom" despite sixteen U.S. bases in the region having suffered severe damage. Elijah warned that with Iran now citing international law to justify strikes on any territory used to launch American attacks, the stakes are higher than ever. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
7:02

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Gulf is entering a dangerous new phase as the U.S. and Iran move toward a direct military collision over the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah Magnier talked about why Trump is doubling down on "Project Freedom" despite sixteen U.S. bases in the region having suffered severe damage. Elijah warned that with Iran now citing international law to justify strikes on any territory used to launch American attacks, the stakes are higher than ever. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

62,467 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier expects the active bombing phase of the war to pause for at least several weeks once the Oman-Iran arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz is in place. He says the Iranians know the Americans are quietly behind the talks. By publicly claiming the deal as his own, Trump is effectively acknowledging the end of U.S. dominance over the strait and accepting greater Iranian control. Elijah argues this shows the limits of Trump’s strategic thinking. He started the war after being told it would be over in days, ignored his own intelligence agencies, and now jumps from Iran developing nuclear material to Iran using nuclear weapons. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
3:46

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier expects the active bombing phase of the war to pause for at least several weeks once the Oman-Iran arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz is in place. He says the Iranians know the Americans are quietly behind the talks. By publicly claiming the deal as his own, Trump is effectively acknowledging the end of U.S. dominance over the strait and accepting greater Iranian control. Elijah argues this shows the limits of Trump’s strategic thinking. He started the war after being told it would be over in days, ignored his own intelligence agencies, and now jumps from Iran developing nuclear material to Iran using nuclear weapons. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

82,678 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇮🇷 Iran keeps widening the war on purpose, because an unbearable status quo is what forces a deal. Military analyst Elijah Magnier explains the logic behind every new front. Persistent long-range strikes expose structural defense holes while cranking diplomatic pressure to maximum. The strategy has one destination: make standing still cost more than signing. And Elijah is clear about what unlocks it all. Until sanctions relief and the core economic terms land on the table, the fronts keep multiplying, and every party gets shoved closer to a final settlement. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
7:55

🇮🇷 Iran keeps widening the war on purpose, because an unbearable status quo is what forces a deal. Military analyst Elijah Magnier explains the logic behind every new front. Persistent long-range strikes expose structural defense holes while cranking diplomatic pressure to maximum. The strategy has one destination: make standing still cost more than signing. And Elijah is clear about what unlocks it all. Until sanctions relief and the core economic terms land on the table, the fronts keep multiplying, and every party gets shoved closer to a final settlement. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

35,824 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has been mined, and even if the war stops tomorrow, demining takes 8 to 12 months minimum. Elijah J. Magnier says Iran is routing all ships through its national waters, giving it the legal right to charge fees on every vessel with no time limit and extra penalties for countries that participated in the war. The message to Gulf states is simple: the U.S. failed to protect itself and failed to protect you. Saudi, the Emirates, and Iraq are already looking towards Pakistan and Turkey instead. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
8:47

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has been mined, and even if the war stops tomorrow, demining takes 8 to 12 months minimum. Elijah J. Magnier says Iran is routing all ships through its national waters, giving it the legal right to charge fees on every vessel with no time limit and extra penalties for countries that participated in the war. The message to Gulf states is simple: the U.S. failed to protect itself and failed to protect you. Saudi, the Emirates, and Iraq are already looking towards Pakistan and Turkey instead. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

82,522 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 More bombing will not change the reality on the ground: Hamas is still in Gaza, Hezbollah is still in Lebanon, and the same ruling system remains in Iran. Elijah J. Magnier says Trump and Netanyahu achieved nothing except creating domestic solidarity inside Iran, and the Strait stays closed until every sanction is lifted and war compensation is paid in full. Iran has said things will never return to how they were before the war, and Trump is the one who has to pay the price for starting it. "Donald Trump did not win to impose his terms. That is his problem, not Iran's." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
7:54

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 More bombing will not change the reality on the ground: Hamas is still in Gaza, Hezbollah is still in Lebanon, and the same ruling system remains in Iran. Elijah J. Magnier says Trump and Netanyahu achieved nothing except creating domestic solidarity inside Iran, and the Strait stays closed until every sanction is lifted and war compensation is paid in full. Iran has said things will never return to how they were before the war, and Trump is the one who has to pay the price for starting it. "Donald Trump did not win to impose his terms. That is his problem, not Iran's." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

90,928 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Before any war, the generals ask the politician one question: what do you want us to achieve? Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says that's the question nobody in Washington can currently answer. And it's why the bombing hasn't produced anything. So the campaign has pressure as its only objective. Elijah's read: Trump has tried it, it's failed, and he won't accept the failure. And Iran can turn the screw without firing a shot, cut crossings from 150 ships a day to 50 and let the rest of the world absorb it. If the only way to reopen the Strait is to stop: how does Trump sell stopping as anything but losing? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
4:22

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Before any war, the generals ask the politician one question: what do you want us to achieve? Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says that's the question nobody in Washington can currently answer. And it's why the bombing hasn't produced anything. So the campaign has pressure as its only objective. Elijah's read: Trump has tried it, it's failed, and he won't accept the failure. And Iran can turn the screw without firing a shot, cut crossings from 150 ships a day to 50 and let the rest of the world absorb it. If the only way to reopen the Strait is to stop: how does Trump sell stopping as anything but losing? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

56,904 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 A handful of drones and sea mines can beat the entire US bombardment campaign at Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier lays out the brutal asymmetry of narrow water. Halting global transit takes almost nothing, while months of massive offshore strikes have failed to reopen anything. Cheap mines close the strait. Billion-dollar campaigns can't unclose it. Which leads to Elijah's bottom line: until the underlying diplomatic terms get settled, forcing that corridor open safely stays virtually impossible, no matter what gets bombed. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
2:16

🇮🇷🇺🇸 A handful of drones and sea mines can beat the entire US bombardment campaign at Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier lays out the brutal asymmetry of narrow water. Halting global transit takes almost nothing, while months of massive offshore strikes have failed to reopen anything. Cheap mines close the strait. Billion-dollar campaigns can't unclose it. Which leads to Elijah's bottom line: until the underlying diplomatic terms get settled, forcing that corridor open safely stays virtually impossible, no matter what gets bombed. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

57,532 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier has a clear take on the latest Hormuz talks. He says people panicking over Trump’s recent threats forget that he has done this several times before: talk tough about bombing Iran, then pull back. Trump is speaking more to the media, the stock market and oil prices than to the Iranians themselves. The real negotiations are happening directly between Oman and Iran, with a long-running backchannel through Witkoff that never stopped. Elijah sees Trump as a skillful negotiator who is often negotiating with himself. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
3:05

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier has a clear take on the latest Hormuz talks. He says people panicking over Trump’s recent threats forget that he has done this several times before: talk tough about bombing Iran, then pull back. Trump is speaking more to the media, the stock market and oil prices than to the Iranians themselves. The real negotiations are happening directly between Oman and Iran, with a long-running backchannel through Witkoff that never stopped. Elijah sees Trump as a skillful negotiator who is often negotiating with himself. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

58,127 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The IRGC vows to target any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. naval escorts. Elijah Magnier argued this "tit-for-tat" escalation is caused by Trump’s stubbornness regarding lifting sanctions on Iran. Elijah suggested that until the U.S. admits the war is a failure and lifts the blockade, the world’s most vital energy artery will remain a kill zone the world cannot withstand. "No ship will accept an escort because it's about insurance companies and ship owners. They will not accept ships going through a volatile Strait of Hormuz." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
10:28

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The IRGC vows to target any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. naval escorts. Elijah Magnier argued this "tit-for-tat" escalation is caused by Trump’s stubbornness regarding lifting sanctions on Iran. Elijah suggested that until the U.S. admits the war is a failure and lifts the blockade, the world’s most vital energy artery will remain a kill zone the world cannot withstand. "No ship will accept an escort because it's about insurance companies and ship owners. They will not accept ships going through a volatile Strait of Hormuz." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

63,806 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is now trapped in a war he can't win, easily leave, or escalate without falling into Iran's trap America went to war over Tehran's nuclear program, yet months later, U.S Tomahawks are hitting Iranian islands because Washington still can’t force open the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier says Trump has ended up exactly where Iran wants him. The nuclear program has disappeared from the negotiations, so has Iran’s missile program, and even its support for regional allies is no longer the immediate issue. The fight has come down to something much more fundamental: who controls safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And Elijah argues that's a fight Iran is uniquely equipped to drag out. America can bomb radars, launchers and facilities along Iran’s coast, and it can clear mines and escort tankers. But Iran only needs a few drones, missiles or mines to demonstrate that Washington still cannot guarantee safe navigation. Every time America declares the Strait secure, Tehran gets another opportunity to prove it isn't. Now Trump is reportedly considering periodic strikes, but what will that achieve? Iran already considers itself at war, so more bombing gives Tehran another opportunity to retaliate, disrupt shipping and keep the economic and political cost rising. Unless those bombs can reopen Hormuz and force Tehran to concede, Trump isn't demonstrating that he has an answer. He's showing that he's run out of them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
44:32

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is now trapped in a war he can't win, easily leave, or escalate without falling into Iran's trap America went to war over Tehran's nuclear program, yet months later, U.S Tomahawks are hitting Iranian islands because Washington still can’t force open the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier says Trump has ended up exactly where Iran wants him. The nuclear program has disappeared from the negotiations, so has Iran’s missile program, and even its support for regional allies is no longer the immediate issue. The fight has come down to something much more fundamental: who controls safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And Elijah argues that's a fight Iran is uniquely equipped to drag out. America can bomb radars, launchers and facilities along Iran’s coast, and it can clear mines and escort tankers. But Iran only needs a few drones, missiles or mines to demonstrate that Washington still cannot guarantee safe navigation. Every time America declares the Strait secure, Tehran gets another opportunity to prove it isn't. Now Trump is reportedly considering periodic strikes, but what will that achieve? Iran already considers itself at war, so more bombing gives Tehran another opportunity to retaliate, disrupt shipping and keep the economic and political cost rising. Unless those bombs can reopen Hormuz and force Tehran to concede, Trump isn't demonstrating that he has an answer. He's showing that he's run out of them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

296,535 просмотров • 26 дней назад

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The MoU is vague in parts and the nature of this war ensures no one will be leaving anything uncapitalized. Elijah Magnier argues that Iran is entitled to force all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to obtain its approval first His reasoning is simple: If Israel is using the full 60-day period the agreement gives it to withdraw from Lebanon, why shouldn't Iran use the 30 days the MoU grants it to exercise its own rights over the Strait? "This is why a passage through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian approval is not going to happen." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
1:48

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The MoU is vague in parts and the nature of this war ensures no one will be leaving anything uncapitalized. Elijah Magnier argues that Iran is entitled to force all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to obtain its approval first His reasoning is simple: If Israel is using the full 60-day period the agreement gives it to withdraw from Lebanon, why shouldn't Iran use the 30 days the MoU grants it to exercise its own rights over the Strait? "This is why a passage through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian approval is not going to happen." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

67,676 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Hormuz is the only Coca-Cola in the desert, and Iran just named the price. Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the war itself rewrote who owns the strait. Before February, everyone sailed freely. Then Washington decided it wanted Hormuz as its prize, and Tehran saw the opening: "The Iranians said, right, this is what you really badly want. I'm afraid you're not going to take it, because now it is the time to sort out all our problems and differences." The rules are simple: lift the sanctions, return the frozen money, stop the war, and navigation returns as before. Want it badly enough, and you know what to do. That's the whole negotiation in one sentence. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
2:57

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Hormuz is the only Coca-Cola in the desert, and Iran just named the price. Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the war itself rewrote who owns the strait. Before February, everyone sailed freely. Then Washington decided it wanted Hormuz as its prize, and Tehran saw the opening: "The Iranians said, right, this is what you really badly want. I'm afraid you're not going to take it, because now it is the time to sort out all our problems and differences." The rules are simple: lift the sanctions, return the frozen money, stop the war, and navigation returns as before. Want it badly enough, and you know what to do. That's the whole negotiation in one sentence. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

85,410 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier believes the current phase of the war is over. He says Trump is looking for a way out so he can claim he ended it and declare victory. Iran, however, sees this as its last real opportunity and will not simply pause for years without results. Iran wants its more than $110 billion in frozen assets returned, sanctions lifted and compensation for the war. The interim Hormuz arrangement gives 60 days with no fees, after which Iran could start charging if it still feels its national security is under pressure from sanctions. He says Tehran will not move to nuclear talks until the broader demands, including regional issues, are addressed. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
2:18

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier believes the current phase of the war is over. He says Trump is looking for a way out so he can claim he ended it and declare victory. Iran, however, sees this as its last real opportunity and will not simply pause for years without results. Iran wants its more than $110 billion in frozen assets returned, sanctions lifted and compensation for the war. The interim Hormuz arrangement gives 60 days with no fees, after which Iran could start charging if it still feels its national security is under pressure from sanctions. He says Tehran will not move to nuclear talks until the broader demands, including regional issues, are addressed. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

80,080 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🇮🇷 Iran retaliates from exactly where the attack originates, and every Gulf capital knows it. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier explains why the entire region is now quietly lining up to cut a deal. "They have to live with them for many long years. They don't have to live with the Americans." The Gulf isn't choosing Iran. It's choosing survival. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
19:04

🇮🇷 Iran retaliates from exactly where the attack originates, and every Gulf capital knows it. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier explains why the entire region is now quietly lining up to cut a deal. "They have to live with them for many long years. They don't have to live with the Americans." The Gulf isn't choosing Iran. It's choosing survival. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

62,876 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Without the ability to threaten shipping through the Strait, Tehran loses its biggest source of leverage over the U.S. Elijah Magnier believes Iran is deliberately targeting ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz because not doing so would put Iran at a perceived disadvantage it can't tolerate, whatever the terms of the MoU may be. "The Iranians are saying you can't cherry-pick. You can't say you want free navigation, then where is my leverage?" Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
1:51

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Without the ability to threaten shipping through the Strait, Tehran loses its biggest source of leverage over the U.S. Elijah Magnier believes Iran is deliberately targeting ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz because not doing so would put Iran at a perceived disadvantage it can't tolerate, whatever the terms of the MoU may be. "The Iranians are saying you can't cherry-pick. You can't say you want free navigation, then where is my leverage?" Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

138,452 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran isn't refusing a deal out of stubbornness, but because a bad peace is more dangerous to the regime than the war itself. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "The Iranians understand very well that Donald Trump is seeking a victory they cannot offer him. This is why there is no deal for now." If the war ends without sanctions lifted, Iran loses its people. They know it, and so does Washington. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
10:21

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran isn't refusing a deal out of stubbornness, but because a bad peace is more dangerous to the regime than the war itself. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "The Iranians understand very well that Donald Trump is seeking a victory they cannot offer him. This is why there is no deal for now." If the war ends without sanctions lifted, Iran loses its people. They know it, and so does Washington. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

73,734 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад