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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't need to win. It just needs to not lose. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier on why that distinction is the whole ballgame. Elijah's read: since 1945 the U.S. has sold itself as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. If Iran controls Hormuz, that image cracks. And... show more

Mario Nawfal

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80,032 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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$🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 The fragile U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is already fracturing as Israel sets its sights on major military operations inside Beirut. Veteran war analyst Elijah Magnier warns that because the preliminary Pakistani-mediated framework explicitly included Lebanon, Tehran is ready to restart a multi-front conflict if the ceasefire terms are violated. Magnier observes that Donald Trump's perceived protection of Benjamin Netanyahu risks plunging the entire region back into a brutal war of attrition that will choke global shipping at both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺$

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 The fragile U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is already fracturing as Israel sets its sights on major military operations inside Beirut. Veteran war analyst Elijah Magnier warns that because the preliminary Pakistani-mediated framework explicitly included Lebanon, Tehran is ready to restart a multi-front conflict if the ceasefire terms are violated. Magnier observes that Donald Trump's perceived protection of Benjamin Netanyahu risks plunging the entire region back into a brutal war of attrition that will choke global shipping at both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

28,076 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 A cruise missile kills a target once. An interceptor gets spent every single time something flies at you, and it takes more than one per incoming. That asymmetry is the whole war, says veteran correspondent Elijah Magnier. The U.S. still has bombers, carriers, subs and regional bases. What it doesn't have is an endless interceptor supply covering Israel, the Gulf bases and the fleet simultaneously. Iran floods it with cheap drones and decoys and lets the arithmetic do the work. Elijah doesn't see another 40 days in this. A week or 2, then what? Iran needs a handful of drones to keep Hormuz closed. So if bombing can't reopen the Strait, what's the buildup actually for? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇮🇷🇺🇸 A cruise missile kills a target once. An interceptor gets spent every single time something flies at you, and it takes more than one per incoming. That asymmetry is the whole war, says veteran correspondent Elijah Magnier. The U.S. still has bombers, carriers, subs and regional bases. What it doesn't have is an endless interceptor supply covering Israel, the Gulf bases and the fleet simultaneously. Iran floods it with cheap drones and decoys and lets the arithmetic do the work. Elijah doesn't see another 40 days in this. A week or 2, then what? Iran needs a handful of drones to keep Hormuz closed. So if bombing can't reopen the Strait, what's the buildup actually for? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

114,586 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Over 900 ships and 20,000 sailors are currently trapped in a maritime stalemate that is holding the global economy hostage. Elijah Magnier argued that it's Trump's fault as he refused to lift the blockade on Iran despite their good faith gesture of opening the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Over 900 ships and 20,000 sailors are currently trapped in a maritime stalemate that is holding the global economy hostage. Elijah Magnier argued that it's Trump's fault as he refused to lift the blockade on Iran despite their good faith gesture of opening the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

65,497 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier expects the active bombing phase of the war to pause for at least several weeks once the Oman-Iran arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz is in place. He says the Iranians know the Americans are quietly behind the talks. By publicly claiming the deal as his own, Trump is effectively acknowledging the end of U.S. dominance over the strait and accepting greater Iranian control. Elijah argues this shows the limits of Trump’s strategic thinking. He started the war after being told it would be over in days, ignored his own intelligence agencies, and now jumps from Iran developing nuclear material to Iran using nuclear weapons. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier expects the active bombing phase of the war to pause for at least several weeks once the Oman-Iran arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz is in place. He says the Iranians know the Americans are quietly behind the talks. By publicly claiming the deal as his own, Trump is effectively acknowledging the end of U.S. dominance over the strait and accepting greater Iranian control. Elijah argues this shows the limits of Trump’s strategic thinking. He started the war after being told it would be over in days, ignored his own intelligence agencies, and now jumps from Iran developing nuclear material to Iran using nuclear weapons. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

82,678 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The MoU is vague in parts and the nature of this war ensures no one will be leaving anything uncapitalized. Elijah Magnier argues that Iran is entitled to force all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to obtain its approval first His reasoning is simple: If Israel is using the full 60-day period the agreement gives it to withdraw from Lebanon, why shouldn't Iran use the 30 days the MoU grants it to exercise its own rights over the Strait? "This is why a passage through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian approval is not going to happen." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The MoU is vague in parts and the nature of this war ensures no one will be leaving anything uncapitalized. Elijah Magnier argues that Iran is entitled to force all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to obtain its approval first His reasoning is simple: If Israel is using the full 60-day period the agreement gives it to withdraw from Lebanon, why shouldn't Iran use the 30 days the MoU grants it to exercise its own rights over the Strait? "This is why a passage through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian approval is not going to happen." Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

67,676 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Gulf is entering a dangerous new phase as the U.S. and Iran move toward a direct military collision over the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah Magnier talked about why Trump is doubling down on "Project Freedom" despite sixteen U.S. bases in the region having suffered severe damage. Elijah warned that with Iran now citing international law to justify strikes on any territory used to launch American attacks, the stakes are higher than ever. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Gulf is entering a dangerous new phase as the U.S. and Iran move toward a direct military collision over the Strait of Hormuz. Elijah Magnier talked about why Trump is doubling down on "Project Freedom" despite sixteen U.S. bases in the region having suffered severe damage. Elijah warned that with Iran now citing international law to justify strikes on any territory used to launch American attacks, the stakes are higher than ever. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

62,467 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇾🇪🇸🇦 Elijah Magnier: The war in Yemen may be destroying America’s alternative to Hormuz Washington’s long-term answer to the Strait of Hormuz has a rather inconvenient problem: the alternative route is also becoming a battlefield. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says the renewed Saudi-Houthi war is increasingly about the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia can bypass part of the Hormuz problem by moving oil west toward Red Sea export terminals. But the Houthis can attack those terminals, target Saudi energy infrastructure and threaten shipping through Bab el-Mandeb. Magnier says that is exactly where the pressure is moving. Instead of opening another front directly against U.S. carriers, he expects the Houthis to concentrate on something everybody eventually notices: The price of oil. That creates an ugly strategic loop. Hormuz is restricted, so exporters look west. The western route runs toward the Red Sea. Yemen then threatens the Red Sea. Magnier says diesel and jet fuel are already tight, while the full economic consequences of disrupted energy flows have yet to arrive. “The real suffering hasn’t started. Wait for the winter.” The plan was to make Hormuz less important. Instead, the war may be making Bab el-Mandeb just as important. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇾🇪🇸🇦 Elijah Magnier: The war in Yemen may be destroying America’s alternative to Hormuz Washington’s long-term answer to the Strait of Hormuz has a rather inconvenient problem: the alternative route is also becoming a battlefield. Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says the renewed Saudi-Houthi war is increasingly about the Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia can bypass part of the Hormuz problem by moving oil west toward Red Sea export terminals. But the Houthis can attack those terminals, target Saudi energy infrastructure and threaten shipping through Bab el-Mandeb. Magnier says that is exactly where the pressure is moving. Instead of opening another front directly against U.S. carriers, he expects the Houthis to concentrate on something everybody eventually notices: The price of oil. That creates an ugly strategic loop. Hormuz is restricted, so exporters look west. The western route runs toward the Red Sea. Yemen then threatens the Red Sea. Magnier says diesel and jet fuel are already tight, while the full economic consequences of disrupted energy flows have yet to arrive. “The real suffering hasn’t started. Wait for the winter.” The plan was to make Hormuz less important. Instead, the war may be making Bab el-Mandeb just as important. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

221,288 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Before any war, the generals ask the politician one question: what do you want us to achieve? Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says that's the question nobody in Washington can currently answer. And it's why the bombing hasn't produced anything. So the campaign has pressure as its only objective. Elijah's read: Trump has tried it, it's failed, and he won't accept the failure. And Iran can turn the screw without firing a shot, cut crossings from 150 ships a day to 50 and let the rest of the world absorb it. If the only way to reopen the Strait is to stop: how does Trump sell stopping as anything but losing? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Before any war, the generals ask the politician one question: what do you want us to achieve? Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier says that's the question nobody in Washington can currently answer. And it's why the bombing hasn't produced anything. So the campaign has pressure as its only objective. Elijah's read: Trump has tried it, it's failed, and he won't accept the failure. And Iran can turn the screw without firing a shot, cut crossings from 150 ships a day to 50 and let the rest of the world absorb it. If the only way to reopen the Strait is to stop: how does Trump sell stopping as anything but losing? Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

56,904 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Without the ability to threaten shipping through the Strait, Tehran loses its biggest source of leverage over the U.S. Elijah Magnier believes Iran is deliberately targeting ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz because not doing so would put Iran at a perceived disadvantage it can't tolerate, whatever the terms of the MoU may be. "The Iranians are saying you can't cherry-pick. You can't say you want free navigation, then where is my leverage?" Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Without the ability to threaten shipping through the Strait, Tehran loses its biggest source of leverage over the U.S. Elijah Magnier believes Iran is deliberately targeting ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz because not doing so would put Iran at a perceived disadvantage it can't tolerate, whatever the terms of the MoU may be. "The Iranians are saying you can't cherry-pick. You can't say you want free navigation, then where is my leverage?" Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

138,452 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇷🇶🇦 One chokepoint could erase 15 million barrels of oil per day and over 20% of the world's gas supply simultaneously. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "Iran is not looking for concessions. Iran is imposing conditions, which is a big difference." The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a bargaining chip. It's a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇮🇷🇶🇦 One chokepoint could erase 15 million barrels of oil per day and over 20% of the world's gas supply simultaneously. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "Iran is not looking for concessions. Iran is imposing conditions, which is a big difference." The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a bargaining chip. It's a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

127,822 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Elijah Magnier says Trump’s latest strikes were driven less by strategy than by the need to answer Iran after promising retaliation. And that creates exactly the dynamic Tehran wants. “We’re going back to tit for tat. And who’s going to stop first? The Iranians are not going to stop.” Magnier’s point is that Iran doesn’t need to defeat the U.S. military. It only needs to keep Hormuz unsafe enough to sustain the pressure while making every American retaliation another reason for the cycle to continue. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Elijah Magnier says Trump’s latest strikes were driven less by strategy than by the need to answer Iran after promising retaliation. And that creates exactly the dynamic Tehran wants. “We’re going back to tit for tat. And who’s going to stop first? The Iranians are not going to stop.” Magnier’s point is that Iran doesn’t need to defeat the U.S. military. It only needs to keep Hormuz unsafe enough to sustain the pressure while making every American retaliation another reason for the cycle to continue. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

87,349 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce

🇺🇸 Trump says he will control the Strait of Hormuz, but that word "will" says everything about who actually holds it right now. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier says it plainly: "Without the coordination with Iran, no ships will cross." Emirati tankers are getting hit back to back, only 4 to 5 million of 20 million barrels are moving, and CENTCOM already told commanders this strategy is going nowhere. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸 Trump says he will control the Strait of Hormuz, but that word "will" says everything about who actually holds it right now. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier says it plainly: "Without the coordination with Iran, no ships will cross." Emirati tankers are getting hit back to back, only 4 to 5 million of 20 million barrels are moving, and CENTCOM already told commanders this strategy is going nowhere. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

49,274 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran isn't refusing a deal out of stubbornness, but because a bad peace is more dangerous to the regime than the war itself. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "The Iranians understand very well that Donald Trump is seeking a victory they cannot offer him. This is why there is no deal for now." If the war ends without sanctions lifted, Iran loses its people. They know it, and so does Washington. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran isn't refusing a deal out of stubbornness, but because a bad peace is more dangerous to the regime than the war itself. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier just laid it all out. "The Iranians understand very well that Donald Trump is seeking a victory they cannot offer him. This is why there is no deal for now." If the war ends without sanctions lifted, Iran loses its people. They know it, and so does Washington. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

73,734 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A deal on the Strait of Hormuz is close, and Trump is about to declare "victory" in a war he did not win. Elijah Magnier, veteran war correspondent who has covered conflicts across the Middle East for decades, has a blunt assessment of where this ends: Iran will have TOTAL control of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, a reality that did not exist before February 28th. Trump hasn't achieved regime change or a nuclear deal, Hormuz is now formally under Iranian supervision, and the Gulf states are being forced to recognize Iran as the dominant regional power, whether they like it or not On why Iran will not make it easy: "This is the last opportunity, and because it is the last opportunity, Iran is not going to step back on lifting all the sanctions and having the money back" On Lebanon, he believes only a finalized Iran deal gives Tehran the leverage to truly force Israel into a genuine Lebanon ceasefire. Neither of us feel this war will restart, as Trump NEEDS a way out of this, even if the victory he sells bears no resemblance to the one he promised. Pleasure as always, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A deal on the Strait of Hormuz is close, and Trump is about to declare "victory" in a war he did not win. Elijah Magnier, veteran war correspondent who has covered conflicts across the Middle East for decades, has a blunt assessment of where this ends: Iran will have TOTAL control of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, a reality that did not exist before February 28th. Trump hasn't achieved regime change or a nuclear deal, Hormuz is now formally under Iranian supervision, and the Gulf states are being forced to recognize Iran as the dominant regional power, whether they like it or not On why Iran will not make it easy: "This is the last opportunity, and because it is the last opportunity, Iran is not going to step back on lifting all the sanctions and having the money back" On Lebanon, he believes only a finalized Iran deal gives Tehran the leverage to truly force Israel into a genuine Lebanon ceasefire. Neither of us feel this war will restart, as Trump NEEDS a way out of this, even if the victory he sells bears no resemblance to the one he promised. Pleasure as always, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

284,621 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier has a clear take on the latest Hormuz talks. He says people panicking over Trump’s recent threats forget that he has done this several times before: talk tough about bombing Iran, then pull back. Trump is speaking more to the media, the stock market and oil prices than to the Iranians themselves. The real negotiations are happening directly between Oman and Iran, with a long-running backchannel through Witkoff that never stopped. Elijah sees Trump as a skillful negotiator who is often negotiating with himself. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Veteran Middle East correspondent Elijah Magnier has a clear take on the latest Hormuz talks. He says people panicking over Trump’s recent threats forget that he has done this several times before: talk tough about bombing Iran, then pull back. Trump is speaking more to the media, the stock market and oil prices than to the Iranians themselves. The real negotiations are happening directly between Oman and Iran, with a long-running backchannel through Witkoff that never stopped. Elijah sees Trump as a skillful negotiator who is often negotiating with himself. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

58,127 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has been mined, and even if the war stops tomorrow, demining takes 8 to 12 months minimum. Elijah J. Magnier says Iran is routing all ships through its national waters, giving it the legal right to charge fees on every vessel with no time limit and extra penalties for countries that participated in the war. The message to Gulf states is simple: the U.S. failed to protect itself and failed to protect you. Saudi, the Emirates, and Iraq are already looking towards Pakistan and Turkey instead. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz has been mined, and even if the war stops tomorrow, demining takes 8 to 12 months minimum. Elijah J. Magnier says Iran is routing all ships through its national waters, giving it the legal right to charge fees on every vessel with no time limit and extra penalties for countries that participated in the war. The message to Gulf states is simple: the U.S. failed to protect itself and failed to protect you. Saudi, the Emirates, and Iraq are already looking towards Pakistan and Turkey instead. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

82,522 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 A signed deal would be the start of the problem, not the end. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier breaks down why the gaps between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran make any agreement almost impossible to hold. "This is the beginning of a diplomatic battle that is never ending, and it will not end." Don't celebrate the ceasefire. The real fight hasn't even started. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 A signed deal would be the start of the problem, not the end. Military & Political Analyst Elijah Magnier breaks down why the gaps between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran make any agreement almost impossible to hold. "This is the beginning of a diplomatic battle that is never ending, and it will not end." Don't celebrate the ceasefire. The real fight hasn't even started. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

24,262 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops in Jordan with ZERO warning. Trump even labeled it a "surprise attack." Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier, who has covered conflicts across the Middle East from inside war zones for decades, broke it all down for me: Iran's message with the Jordan strike is simple: the U.S. started this war without permission, and Iran will fire whenever it chooses until the MOU is implemented, not just when America fires first... "Trump can decide when to start the war, which he did with Netanyahu in February, but he is not the one who decides when to end it." He says Iran is deliberately distributing the pain: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, Iraq, Jordan, and beyond. The strategy? To make the economic cost felt by everyone until the world turns to Washington and says "enough." "This will become one of the biggest strategic blunders of, at least, my generation." And yet Elijah remains optimistic, because in his experience, things only get solved when they become everyone's problem. And that it is. Thanks for the discussion, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. troops in Jordan with ZERO warning. Trump even labeled it a "surprise attack." Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier, who has covered conflicts across the Middle East from inside war zones for decades, broke it all down for me: Iran's message with the Jordan strike is simple: the U.S. started this war without permission, and Iran will fire whenever it chooses until the MOU is implemented, not just when America fires first... "Trump can decide when to start the war, which he did with Netanyahu in February, but he is not the one who decides when to end it." He says Iran is deliberately distributing the pain: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, Iraq, Jordan, and beyond. The strategy? To make the economic cost felt by everyone until the world turns to Washington and says "enough." "This will become one of the biggest strategic blunders of, at least, my generation." And yet Elijah remains optimistic, because in his experience, things only get solved when they become everyone's problem. And that it is. Thanks for the discussion, Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

319,694 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇷 By hitting Jordan, Iran is draining the exact interceptor stockpiles that Israel relies on as its backup missile defense Veteran war correspondent and military analyst Elijah Magnier, breaks it down: Gulf countries have all their infrastructure above ground, Iran has all its missiles buried underground, and 70 days of low-intensity conflict has let Iran quietly restock while the other side depletes. Oil for oil, power for power. Everybody suffers equally, and Iran can last longer. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

🇮🇷 By hitting Jordan, Iran is draining the exact interceptor stockpiles that Israel relies on as its backup missile defense Veteran war correspondent and military analyst Elijah Magnier, breaks it down: Gulf countries have all their infrastructure above ground, Iran has all its missiles buried underground, and 70 days of low-intensity conflict has let Iran quietly restock while the other side depletes. Oil for oil, power for power. Everybody suffers equally, and Iran can last longer. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

167,550 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨"For the first time in the history of Iran, Iran goes to war on behalf of an ally. Since 1982, in academia, we've been bombarded by people saying Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and that Hezbollah will fight on behalf of Iran to damage Israel to make Iran happy. Well, we saw in June 2025 that Iran went to war on its own. Hezbollah refused to intervene. And we have seen how Iran went to war on behalf of Hezbollah and Lebanon to stop the bombardment of the suburb of Beirut, where there are between 700,000 and 800,000 Lebanese," says Elijah Magnier (Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺) in our recent interview. ➤ Watch the full episode on Substack:

🚨"For the first time in the history of Iran, Iran goes to war on behalf of an ally. Since 1982, in academia, we've been bombarded by people saying Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and that Hezbollah will fight on behalf of Iran to damage Israel to make Iran happy. Well, we saw in June 2025 that Iran went to war on its own. Hezbollah refused to intervene. And we have seen how Iran went to war on behalf of Hezbollah and Lebanon to stop the bombardment of the suburb of Beirut, where there are between 700,000 and 800,000 Lebanese," says Elijah Magnier (Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺) in our recent interview. ➤ Watch the full episode on Substack:

Lena Petrova

10,814 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce