Загрузка видео...

Не удалось загрузить видео

На главную

A former Citadel PM on why funds actually blow up. Feels relevant these days: "It's much more common that people say: I had this incredible thesis, incredible differentiation." "But I screwed up on portfolio construction and risk — I blew up that way, not the other way around." "Walk...

ethanrkho's profile picture

Ethan Kho

19,957 subscribers

114,292 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

Финансы
LIVE

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

Комментарии: 0

Нет доступных комментариев

Здесь появятся комментарии из оригинального поста

Похожие видео

ex-Citadel portfolio manager, just explained why almost every fund actually blows up. "90% of hedge fund failures, PM failures, analyst failures, it's bad portfolio construction, sizing, all those things." the logic: alpha is competitive. one good idea barely moves the needle, because the moment you build a book, correlation starts eating you. "any amount of correlation in a portfolio drags your sharpe ratio toward the market's." and the market's sharpe you can buy for free from Vanguard. so the entire game collapses to two things: generate a positive hit rate across enough independent bets, and kill the correlation between them. the funds that survive run 80-90% of their risk in idiosyncratic, stock-specific bets. only 10-20% is allowed to be factor exposure. and they treat every factor bet, momentum, crowding, "long the AI trade", like a single stock position, with the same hard limits and the same diligence. the ones who blow up almost always had the ideas. they just leaked P&L on risk they never meant to take. "what they got wrong was risk and portfolio construction." clip from "Odds on Open"
1:32

ex-Citadel portfolio manager, just explained why almost every fund actually blows up. "90% of hedge fund failures, PM failures, analyst failures, it's bad portfolio construction, sizing, all those things." the logic: alpha is competitive. one good idea barely moves the needle, because the moment you build a book, correlation starts eating you. "any amount of correlation in a portfolio drags your sharpe ratio toward the market's." and the market's sharpe you can buy for free from Vanguard. so the entire game collapses to two things: generate a positive hit rate across enough independent bets, and kill the correlation between them. the funds that survive run 80-90% of their risk in idiosyncratic, stock-specific bets. only 10-20% is allowed to be factor exposure. and they treat every factor bet, momentum, crowding, "long the AI trade", like a single stock position, with the same hard limits and the same diligence. the ones who blow up almost always had the ideas. they just leaked P&L on risk they never meant to take. "what they got wrong was risk and portfolio construction." clip from "Odds on Open"

Goshawk Trades

39,688 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (Rich Falk-Wallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana Arcana — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once
1:27:08

Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (Rich Falk-Wallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana Arcana — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once

Ethan Kho

524,387 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

mingyu who is always so full of love 🖤 🐶 you know how much i like people, right? if you take a look around you, there are so many people. but if you take a look at them at a slightly different perspective, i think they're all pretty and cool people. so i hope that you guys can also feel a lot of those happy emotions as you go on with your life. and that's not just the people around you - it could be seventeen, it can be a lot of other people, celebrities, even your neighbor. i just... hope that you can spend each day full of love. i'll also live well that way, alright?
0:30

mingyu who is always so full of love 🖤 🐶 you know how much i like people, right? if you take a look around you, there are so many people. but if you take a look at them at a slightly different perspective, i think they're all pretty and cool people. so i hope that you guys can also feel a lot of those happy emotions as you go on with your life. and that's not just the people around you - it could be seventeen, it can be a lot of other people, celebrities, even your neighbor. i just... hope that you can spend each day full of love. i'll also live well that way, alright?

🐶

53,424 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

The single best way to break into the Hedge Fund industry — and most people still won't do it: Derek Pilecki, 18-year track record, 21%+ annualized in financials, entire net worth in his own fund. "Since we have the internet, there's a way to break into the industry that didn't exist in the nineties." "You can write up stock ideas. You can research how to write up a stock idea. You can write up your own idea and post it to Seeking Alpha or create your own blog, post it to Twitter." "If you do that 10 times, you'll have a following." "There'll be professional money managers who will read your blog because you wrote up 10 small cap stocks and they own one or two of them." "They read your idea on this bank. They agreed with you. Now they wanna see what other banks you like." "You can find a job that way by just writing up stock ideas and posting them to the internet." "You can break into this industry if you're willing to do that work on your own and put yourself out there." You can just write up 10 stock ideas.
1:29

The single best way to break into the Hedge Fund industry — and most people still won't do it: Derek Pilecki, 18-year track record, 21%+ annualized in financials, entire net worth in his own fund. "Since we have the internet, there's a way to break into the industry that didn't exist in the nineties." "You can write up stock ideas. You can research how to write up a stock idea. You can write up your own idea and post it to Seeking Alpha or create your own blog, post it to Twitter." "If you do that 10 times, you'll have a following." "There'll be professional money managers who will read your blog because you wrote up 10 small cap stocks and they own one or two of them." "They read your idea on this bank. They agreed with you. Now they wanna see what other banks you like." "You can find a job that way by just writing up stock ideas and posting them to the internet." "You can break into this industry if you're willing to do that work on your own and put yourself out there." You can just write up 10 stock ideas.

Ethan Kho

200,481 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This man has a Bluetooth vibration plate that you stand on He wakes up in the middle of the night and people are talking on it, you can actually hear the conversation 2 people are clearly speaking through his vibration plate From what I can find on Reddit, there are a lot of other people that have had this happen to them too Apparently the device has a built-in speaker that doubles as a Bluetooth audio receiver and speaker, and it can connect to nearby phones even if your own Bluetooth is off So it’s essentially picking up someone else’s signal and playing it through your vibration plate
2:26

This man has a Bluetooth vibration plate that you stand on He wakes up in the middle of the night and people are talking on it, you can actually hear the conversation 2 people are clearly speaking through his vibration plate From what I can find on Reddit, there are a lot of other people that have had this happen to them too Apparently the device has a built-in speaker that doubles as a Bluetooth audio receiver and speaker, and it can connect to nearby phones even if your own Bluetooth is off So it’s essentially picking up someone else’s signal and playing it through your vibration plate

Wall Street Apes

1,116,867 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

your original birth certificate has a stamped number on it. that's a bond number. that bond number is traded on the stock market. the value of that bond number on the market is your value to them - which is commensurate with the amount of wealth they have stolen from you. that's called your minor estate. you can bitch all you want about whether nesara is a real thing or not - I could care less. one way or the other, this will all be sorted out. if I know, you know. If you know, then you can bet your ass they know that we all know. ncswic is not a tagline. you can take that to the bank.
0:59

your original birth certificate has a stamped number on it. that's a bond number. that bond number is traded on the stock market. the value of that bond number on the market is your value to them - which is commensurate with the amount of wealth they have stolen from you. that's called your minor estate. you can bitch all you want about whether nesara is a real thing or not - I could care less. one way or the other, this will all be sorted out. if I know, you know. If you know, then you can bet your ass they know that we all know. ncswic is not a tagline. you can take that to the bank.

The Rubber Duck ™

2,977,004 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Asmongold says he can never represent a mainstream movement because of how he looks "I know that I'm a ghoul and anybody that sees me and sees the way that I act are going to be immediately put off by it. I am a warlock. I cannot represent anything on its face because I am a degenerate ghoul." "I can work from the shadows, but I can never represent any sort of a movement because of the way that I look. People see the way somebody like me looks and then they are immediately like, whatever this guy is for, I'm on the other side." "Is there any other creator whose appearance is negatively discussed more on social media than me? I would say the answer to that is absolutely not. It's not even close."
1:39

Asmongold says he can never represent a mainstream movement because of how he looks "I know that I'm a ghoul and anybody that sees me and sees the way that I act are going to be immediately put off by it. I am a warlock. I cannot represent anything on its face because I am a degenerate ghoul." "I can work from the shadows, but I can never represent any sort of a movement because of the way that I look. People see the way somebody like me looks and then they are immediately like, whatever this guy is for, I'm on the other side." "Is there any other creator whose appearance is negatively discussed more on social media than me? I would say the answer to that is absolutely not. It's not even close."

Asmongold Updates

107,078 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Chamath: “The Palantir short is stupid.” “The Palantir short is stupid, and I think that those people will lose money.” “The thing that the people that are shorting this company don't understand is that all of these other businesses that you put up there, there is a viable competitor of some kind that you can switch to.” “Look at the one with the lowest multiple to sales, MongoDB. There's 90 versions of what MongoDB does.” “I'm not gonna say whether MongoDB is good or bad. It’s actually a good company. It's an extremely well run business, but it's not unique. It's just extremely well run.” “Snowflake is not unique, but it is well run.” “Palantir is both unique and well run, and there's no clear alternative, so there's no place to churn to.” “And so I think the reason why it has a premium valuation is because the duration and the durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you would typically see in any of these other companies.” “And if people took 1/1000th of a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion.”
0:54

Chamath: “The Palantir short is stupid.” “The Palantir short is stupid, and I think that those people will lose money.” “The thing that the people that are shorting this company don't understand is that all of these other businesses that you put up there, there is a viable competitor of some kind that you can switch to.” “Look at the one with the lowest multiple to sales, MongoDB. There's 90 versions of what MongoDB does.” “I'm not gonna say whether MongoDB is good or bad. It’s actually a good company. It's an extremely well run business, but it's not unique. It's just extremely well run.” “Snowflake is not unique, but it is well run.” “Palantir is both unique and well run, and there's no clear alternative, so there's no place to churn to.” “And so I think the reason why it has a premium valuation is because the duration and the durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you would typically see in any of these other companies.” “And if people took 1/1000th of a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion.”

The All-In Podcast

282,007 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Here's how I'd build a portfolio right now. I have about 30% in Bitcoin, a basket of AI companies I can get access to ( I own Astera Labs publicly, SpaceX privately). Always own a slug of the S&P. The Mag 7 has had its run but the other 493 are doing well this year. Some real estate and some gold. Then sit tight and bet the long term of the United States. This country is not going anywhere and here's why I believe that so deeply. Definitionally, everyone who came to this country was a risk taker. The people who got on a boat or a plane from somewhere else and said, I'm going to swing for the fences in America. When you swing for the fences you strike out sometimes and this is a culture that accepts getting your ass kicked and getting back up. That makes it neurally flexible and neurally plastic. I wouldn't bet against the people who live here. Phil Rosen
1:14

Here's how I'd build a portfolio right now. I have about 30% in Bitcoin, a basket of AI companies I can get access to ( I own Astera Labs publicly, SpaceX privately). Always own a slug of the S&P. The Mag 7 has had its run but the other 493 are doing well this year. Some real estate and some gold. Then sit tight and bet the long term of the United States. This country is not going anywhere and here's why I believe that so deeply. Definitionally, everyone who came to this country was a risk taker. The people who got on a boat or a plane from somewhere else and said, I'm going to swing for the fences in America. When you swing for the fences you strike out sometimes and this is a culture that accepts getting your ass kicked and getting back up. That makes it neurally flexible and neurally plastic. I wouldn't bet against the people who live here. Phil Rosen

Anthony Scaramucci

111,361 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire says Silicon Valley is undergoing a "Copernican" shift and waking up to the fact that it revolves around a set of much larger industries, not the other way around: "In Silicon Valley, [there's] almost this Copernican principle — where people used to believe that the world revolved around the Earth, then realized that it revolves around the sun." "There's a Silicon Valley parallel where people think that all of technology, all of industry, revolves around Silicon Valley, but it's actually kind of the opposite." "Silicon Valley is Earth, and there are these much bigger forces and bodies, which include energy, the chemical industry, these giant supply chains, and the semiconductor industry, which has been around for a very long time. It was pretty advanced, and people in Silicon Valley forgot about it." "I don't like the language of other industries pivoting into AI. I actually think it's the opposite." "I think it's like Silicon Valley is waking up from its toddlerhood and realizing that there were these giant industries that we underestimated, and they're actually really freaking good at what they do. And we can all benefit by working together."
2:17

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire says Silicon Valley is undergoing a "Copernican" shift and waking up to the fact that it revolves around a set of much larger industries, not the other way around: "In Silicon Valley, [there's] almost this Copernican principle — where people used to believe that the world revolved around the Earth, then realized that it revolves around the sun." "There's a Silicon Valley parallel where people think that all of technology, all of industry, revolves around Silicon Valley, but it's actually kind of the opposite." "Silicon Valley is Earth, and there are these much bigger forces and bodies, which include energy, the chemical industry, these giant supply chains, and the semiconductor industry, which has been around for a very long time. It was pretty advanced, and people in Silicon Valley forgot about it." "I don't like the language of other industries pivoting into AI. I actually think it's the opposite." "I think it's like Silicon Valley is waking up from its toddlerhood and realizing that there were these giant industries that we underestimated, and they're actually really freaking good at what they do. And we can all benefit by working together."

TBPN

238,386 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Edward Norton: "You're not on the spectrum, shut up" and the Silicon Valley trend that aggravates him Host: "It occurred to me, do you think you're neurodivergent at all" "Not in a claimable you know, nameable way... this is a pet peeve" "I may not be right about this but I feel like Silicon Valley has done a lot of cool things and a lot of really negative things to our society" "One of the ones that I find kind of aggravating what is I would call the romanticization of like the idea of being on the spectrum" "You get all these people who are just basically assholes wanting to credit that to them being on the spectrum it's like you're not on the spectrum, shut up" "Like you know stop it and don't do that, don't casually" Host: "Write off all your bad behaviour" "Yeah and also don't casually try to claim as a superpower a thing that for a lot of people is a real thing"
0:50

Edward Norton: "You're not on the spectrum, shut up" and the Silicon Valley trend that aggravates him Host: "It occurred to me, do you think you're neurodivergent at all" "Not in a claimable you know, nameable way... this is a pet peeve" "I may not be right about this but I feel like Silicon Valley has done a lot of cool things and a lot of really negative things to our society" "One of the ones that I find kind of aggravating what is I would call the romanticization of like the idea of being on the spectrum" "You get all these people who are just basically assholes wanting to credit that to them being on the spectrum it's like you're not on the spectrum, shut up" "Like you know stop it and don't do that, don't casually" Host: "Write off all your bad behaviour" "Yeah and also don't casually try to claim as a superpower a thing that for a lot of people is a real thing"

le.hl

1,378,058 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

BREAKING: A WHO official warns the Ebola strain involved in the current outbreak could have a fatality rate as high as 50%. Think about how terrifying that number is. Up to HALF of infected people could die based on previous outbreaks of this strain. That is why health officials are taking this so seriously right now. Because Ebola is not COVID. It does not spread the same way. But when outbreaks spiral out of control, the lethality can be absolutely catastrophic. Five out of ten people. That is the level of risk officials are warning about.
0:35

BREAKING: A WHO official warns the Ebola strain involved in the current outbreak could have a fatality rate as high as 50%. Think about how terrifying that number is. Up to HALF of infected people could die based on previous outbreaks of this strain. That is why health officials are taking this so seriously right now. Because Ebola is not COVID. It does not spread the same way. But when outbreaks spiral out of control, the lethality can be absolutely catastrophic. Five out of ten people. That is the level of risk officials are warning about.

Brian Allen

123,106 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Good morning and Happy Friday to everyone who noticed that, while even MILLI VANILLI bailed on trump's birthday, EVERYONE showed up for President Obama, including all the living Presidents, Stevie Wonder, Bruce Springsteen, John Legend, Jennifer Hudson, Common, Eddie Vedder, Tom Hanks, Stephen Spielberg... People showed up for the REAL ones. Michael Steele: "This is a moment that can be about the country. And I think a lot of people are looking at it that way."🙏💪
2:50

Good morning and Happy Friday to everyone who noticed that, while even MILLI VANILLI bailed on trump's birthday, EVERYONE showed up for President Obama, including all the living Presidents, Stevie Wonder, Bruce Springsteen, John Legend, Jennifer Hudson, Common, Eddie Vedder, Tom Hanks, Stephen Spielberg... People showed up for the REAL ones. Michael Steele: "This is a moment that can be about the country. And I think a lot of people are looking at it that way."🙏💪

BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️

343,073 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Chamath on H1-B visa: There's a lot of people that look at me and say 'That guy is part of the problem' you can see it in the comments on X." "I came on an H1B visa. Elon came on an H1B visa, okay? This is in the early 2000s. Why? Nobody was applying for these things. And who did you have? Forget about me, I'm relevant, but you had guys like him, you had these incredible scientists, Urs Hölzle that ends up at Google. These are giants, okay?" "What's happening now, for the last 15 or 20 years, you have farms of applications. 20,000 slots open up, so you can't stipulate abuse because what that means is so overwhelming that the next Elon or Urs Hölzle was already gone. I sure as shit would never say that the program works today." "So I think it's fair to say two things. We can stipulate the following two things: Immigration is really good. We should be attracting the best. But we should also make it fair for the best who have, for the last five years, been blocked because a handful of companies have abused this system. You need to stop and fix it so that you can reestablish trust with the American population at large. There's a lot of people that look at me and say, 'That guy's part of the problem.' You can see it in the comments on X. And I'm like, 'Wow, me?'" "No, I think that's because they see the abuses on the ground. They see the people that show up and they're like, 'This person is not smarter than me. All I can see is wage suppression.' We have a responsibility to the people who are working and paying into the system to answer their questions honestly. You can't stipulate and ignore it. You can't. Sometimes you gotta say, 'You know what? That was gross abuse.'"
2:01

Chamath on H1-B visa: There's a lot of people that look at me and say 'That guy is part of the problem' you can see it in the comments on X." "I came on an H1B visa. Elon came on an H1B visa, okay? This is in the early 2000s. Why? Nobody was applying for these things. And who did you have? Forget about me, I'm relevant, but you had guys like him, you had these incredible scientists, Urs Hölzle that ends up at Google. These are giants, okay?" "What's happening now, for the last 15 or 20 years, you have farms of applications. 20,000 slots open up, so you can't stipulate abuse because what that means is so overwhelming that the next Elon or Urs Hölzle was already gone. I sure as shit would never say that the program works today." "So I think it's fair to say two things. We can stipulate the following two things: Immigration is really good. We should be attracting the best. But we should also make it fair for the best who have, for the last five years, been blocked because a handful of companies have abused this system. You need to stop and fix it so that you can reestablish trust with the American population at large. There's a lot of people that look at me and say, 'That guy's part of the problem.' You can see it in the comments on X. And I'm like, 'Wow, me?'" "No, I think that's because they see the abuses on the ground. They see the people that show up and they're like, 'This person is not smarter than me. All I can see is wage suppression.' We have a responsibility to the people who are working and paying into the system to answer their questions honestly. You can't stipulate and ignore it. You can't. Sometimes you gotta say, 'You know what? That was gross abuse.'"

Tony Jacob | FindaClip.com

216,768 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

omg yujin got asked what kind of people he dislikes... 🐰: i think its the kind of people who let their mood become their attitude 🐰: if you are in a bad mood its actually unavoidable that the atmosphere gets heavy and your spirits drop then its not easy to take what other people say in a positive way... i know all of that is actually hard... 🐰: but the kind of people who make their bad mood incredibly obvious... i don't really like that. just people who let their mood become their attitude... im also working hard to not do that myself...
2:02

omg yujin got asked what kind of people he dislikes... 🐰: i think its the kind of people who let their mood become their attitude 🐰: if you are in a bad mood its actually unavoidable that the atmosphere gets heavy and your spirits drop then its not easy to take what other people say in a positive way... i know all of that is actually hard... 🐰: but the kind of people who make their bad mood incredibly obvious... i don't really like that. just people who let their mood become their attitude... im also working hard to not do that myself...

안나

123,959 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The way I see it personally, is that I'm not ok giving up on a guy with this level of care for the program, this level of care for winning, that has won here. I'm not ok giving up on the potential he has to win even more. I believe he can. I believe he will. #mubb
0:33

The way I see it personally, is that I'm not ok giving up on a guy with this level of care for the program, this level of care for winning, that has won here. I'm not ok giving up on the potential he has to win even more. I believe he can. I believe he will. #mubb

Big East Golden Eagle

21,379 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

a former PM at Citadel and D.E. Shaw, now trains institutional analysts, on where alpha actually exists: "my general prior is that alpha lives in the tails." "80% of stocks are mostly fairly priced. but there's a 10% tail on the right, 10% tail on the left where there's meaningful mispricing." "so the decomposition of generating alpha is finding a differentiated perspective and investing behind that differentiated perspective with conviction." 80% of the market is efficiently priced. the edge isn't in the middle, it's in the extremes that most people avoid because they're uncomfortable. same distribution in trading. most strategy ideas are noise. most parameter combinations are curve fit. few strategies that survive every validation test you throw at them.
3:46

a former PM at Citadel and D.E. Shaw, now trains institutional analysts, on where alpha actually exists: "my general prior is that alpha lives in the tails." "80% of stocks are mostly fairly priced. but there's a 10% tail on the right, 10% tail on the left where there's meaningful mispricing." "so the decomposition of generating alpha is finding a differentiated perspective and investing behind that differentiated perspective with conviction." 80% of the market is efficiently priced. the edge isn't in the middle, it's in the extremes that most people avoid because they're uncomfortable. same distribution in trading. most strategy ideas are noise. most parameter combinations are curve fit. few strategies that survive every validation test you throw at them.

Goshawk Trades

91,968 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Steve Jobs on why everything around you was made by people no smarter than you: "When you grow up, you tend to get told that the world is the way it is and your life is just to live your life inside the world. Try not to bash into the walls too much, have a nice family life, have fun, save a little money. But that's a very limited life." Steve believed most people live with a fundamental misconception. As he puts it: "Life can be much broader once you discover one simple fact. And that is—everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you." He continues: "And you can change it. You can influence it. You can build your own things that other people can use. And the minute that you understand that you can poke life and actually something will pop out the other side—that you can change it, you can mold it." On what matters most: "Maybe the most important thing is to shake off this erroneous notion that life is there and you're just going to live in it versus embrace it, change it, improve it, make your mark upon it. I think that's very important." His perspective on why you should change things: "However you learn that, once you learn it, you'll want to change life and make it better because it's kind of messed up in a lot of ways." The shift: "Once you learn that, you'll never be the same again."
1:28

Steve Jobs on why everything around you was made by people no smarter than you: "When you grow up, you tend to get told that the world is the way it is and your life is just to live your life inside the world. Try not to bash into the walls too much, have a nice family life, have fun, save a little money. But that's a very limited life." Steve believed most people live with a fundamental misconception. As he puts it: "Life can be much broader once you discover one simple fact. And that is—everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you." He continues: "And you can change it. You can influence it. You can build your own things that other people can use. And the minute that you understand that you can poke life and actually something will pop out the other side—that you can change it, you can mold it." On what matters most: "Maybe the most important thing is to shake off this erroneous notion that life is there and you're just going to live in it versus embrace it, change it, improve it, make your mark upon it. I think that's very important." His perspective on why you should change things: "However you learn that, once you learn it, you'll want to change life and make it better because it's kind of messed up in a lot of ways." The shift: "Once you learn that, you'll never be the same again."

Jaynit

48,518 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Asmongold says he could never represent or lead a campaign or any kind of movement because of the way he looks 👀😭 “I can work from the shadows. I can never represent any sort of a movement because of the way that I look. I think people see the way that somebody like me looks, and then they are immediately like, ‘You know what? I'm on the other side. Whatever. I'm a warlock.’ Isn't that bad? Is there any other creator whose appearance is negatively discussed more on social media than me? Think about that. Is there a single person?”
0:36

Asmongold says he could never represent or lead a campaign or any kind of movement because of the way he looks 👀😭 “I can work from the shadows. I can never represent any sort of a movement because of the way that I look. I think people see the way that somebody like me looks, and then they are immediately like, ‘You know what? I'm on the other side. Whatever. I'm a warlock.’ Isn't that bad? Is there any other creator whose appearance is negatively discussed more on social media than me? Think about that. Is there a single person?”

Prism

78,271 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад