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AI that had human-level intelligence would actually be way above human level in capability. Obviously, if we trained a human-level AI, we could just run way more instances of it in parallel. This is a huge advantage. But it's not the only one. Right now, LLMs are much less...

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Dwarkesh Patel

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31,861 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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ELON: AI WILL SOON BE SMARTER THAN HUMANS IN EVERY WAY WITH AGI Elon warned that the age of artificial general intelligence is near, saying humans will soon no longer be the smartest beings on Earth. He said AGI will surpass human capability entirely and could even replicate human thought and behavior: “Well, I mean, humans have been the smartest creature on Earth for a long time, and that is going to change with what’s typically called artificial general intelligence. This is an AI that is smarter than a human in every way and could even simulate a human.” Source: Axel Springer Award
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ELON: AI WILL SOON BE SMARTER THAN HUMANS IN EVERY WAY WITH AGI Elon warned that the age of artificial general intelligence is near, saying humans will soon no longer be the smartest beings on Earth. He said AGI will surpass human capability entirely and could even replicate human thought and behavior: “Well, I mean, humans have been the smartest creature on Earth for a long time, and that is going to change with what’s typically called artificial general intelligence. This is an AI that is smarter than a human in every way and could even simulate a human.” Source: Axel Springer Award

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Yann LeCun says reaching human-level AI won't be a sudden event, but a gradual evolution "optimistically, we might reach human-level, or at least dog-level, intelligence within 5 to 10 years" However, if we run into unexpected obstacles, it may take 20 years or more
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Yann LeCun says reaching human-level AI won't be a sudden event, but a gradual evolution "optimistically, we might reach human-level, or at least dog-level, intelligence within 5 to 10 years" However, if we run into unexpected obstacles, it may take 20 years or more

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Suppose an AI model fully automates a $200k job. Its economic value - measured in contribution to GDP - will be both far more and far less than $200k. There are two ways of thinking about the model's economic value: (1) It'll be far more than $200k. After all, the human worker's labor was worth $200k; AI workers will have a bunch of advantages over humans, like not needing to sleep and being able to run in parallel, so their labor will be worth even more. (2) It'll be far less than $200k. Competition between labs might drive the price of AI down until it's basically equal to the cost of the GPUs and energy. And this is obviously way lower than the human worker's contribution to GDP. The important idea is that both are right. The marginal contribution to GDP of running an additional instance of this model will probably be relatively low. But we'll end up running way more copies of it, so the model's total contribution to GDP will be way higher than the human workers it replaced.
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Andrej Karpathy beautifully explains the fundamental difference of learning between a human and an LLM. > “The book I’m reading is a set of prompts for me to do synthetic data generation. It's by manipulating that information that you actually gain that knowledge. We have no equivalent of that with LLMs; they don't really do that.” many of the best minds in this field think LLMs are not really learning anything, and therefore are incapable of surpassing human-level intelligence.
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Andrej Karpathy beautifully explains the fundamental difference of learning between a human and an LLM. > “The book I’m reading is a set of prompts for me to do synthetic data generation. It's by manipulating that information that you actually gain that knowledge. We have no equivalent of that with LLMs; they don't really do that.” many of the best minds in this field think LLMs are not really learning anything, and therefore are incapable of surpassing human-level intelligence.

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140,318 просмотров • 1 год назад

MIT professor Sendhil Mullainathan calls Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — a form of AI that would possess human-level cognitive abilities — "a shockingly unambitious goal."
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when we were at facebook, we believed that at some point in the future, most of the transactions on the internet would not be done by humans they would be done by machines that conviction shaped every architectural decision behind sui we built sui for the world we knew was coming a world where machines will be the primary economic actors on the internet and that world is no longer a forecast. it is unfolding right in front of us the internet has reached a tipping point where automated activity, supercharged by AI, now outpaces human interaction non-human traffic now accounts for more than 50% of all global web activity and you can see humans using agentic workflows more and more in their daily lives in the next years, that trend is going to grow exponentially and the volume of financial transactions executed by agents is also going to grow exponentially with it each agentic workload will be running multiple thousand economic transactions a second and this is going to be orders of magnitude higher than what human wallets do today the L1s optimized for human usage patterns, human attention, human accounts, and human patience cannot adapt to where this is going i have always said this if it is not in the foundation, you cannot patch your way to it later and rn, no other L1 has the foundation sui has this is why agentic apps like Beep, Audric, WaterX are choosing sui and this is just a start. more agentic apps will keep landing on sui because agents are optimizers. they will always route through the fastest, cheapest path on the internet and that path is sui we believed it at facebook. we believe it more today than we ever did the agentic economy is inevitable. and it will run on Sui

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