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Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has a surprising theory about the "confidence" behind great founders: it might not be confidence at all. When the idea of confidence comes up, Bezos offers a different explanation: "You say it's confidence, but maybe it's just trying to compensate for that... accepting that that's... a human bias and trying to compensate against it." So what is the bias? "I think it's generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity." Your instincts don't just make the risks look bigger than they are. They also make the opportunities look smaller than they are. Both errors push you in the same direction: toward doing less. Bezos's correction: "The risks are probably not as big as you perceive and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive." This is why he says entrepreneurs "would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature." Seen this way, the founder who looks fearless may not have a different personality from you. They may simply have accepted that their instincts are tilted and learned to adjust for it on purpose. That's not a trait you're born with. It's a correction you can choose to make. And if you don't make it, Jeff Bezos warns there's a cost: "Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy." Let the bias set your ambitions, and you'll get small results that seem to prove small was all that was possible.show more

Big Brain Business

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38,023 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Profilbild von Big Brain Business

Big Brain Businessvor 15 Tagen

Full video from @nytimesevents:

Profilbild von Sentient Yoghurt

Sentient Yoghurtvor 15 Tagen

Been there. When I turned down the acquisition offer, every instinct screamed risk. A year on, the downside I feared never showed up. The maths was fine, my gut was the problem.

Profilbild von НАТА МИТЕНКА

НАТА МИТЕНКАvor 15 Tagen

Гм).. Есть мысли, Алексей Николаевич?

Profilbild von Garret McCann

Garret McCannvor 15 Tagen

I like that. If you believe you can, you will. If you believe you’ll survive the risk you’ll try. After you succeed you find it’s easier than you thought.

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Jeff Bezos: “Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy” Bezos is asked where he gets the confidence to even attempt to build companies of such massive scale, like Amazon and Blue Origin. He responds: “I think it’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well-advised to try and bias against that. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… You say it’s confidence, but maybe I’m just accepting that human bias and trying to compensate against it. The second thing I would point out is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Video source: New York Times Events (2024)

Jeff Bezos: “Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy” Bezos is asked where he gets the confidence to even attempt to build companies of such massive scale, like Amazon and Blue Origin. He responds: “I think it’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well-advised to try and bias against that. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… You say it’s confidence, but maybe I’m just accepting that human bias and trying to compensate against it. The second thing I would point out is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Video source: New York Times Events (2024)

Startup Archive

272,557 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Agreed. I particularly enjoyed this part where he shared advice for how founders can foster the confidence to take on big challenges— “It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity… the risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… The second thing is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophesy.” Thanks to David Senra for telling to watch this one yesterday.

Agreed. I particularly enjoyed this part where he shared advice for how founders can foster the confidence to take on big challenges— “It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity… the risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… The second thing is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophesy.” Thanks to David Senra for telling to watch this one yesterday.

Rob Mohr

18,065 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Zack Polanski, "Why do we hear this phrase all the time, unconscious bias?" Professor Keon West, "It's incredibly comfortable" "In the UK it's so hard to have a conversation about racism or sexism" "You won't hear people say: I did that and that was a racist thing to do" "You can go on TV and say you hate seeing a bunch of black and brown faces - like Reform UK's Sarah Pochin - and say you cannot be racist, it must be a misunderstanding" "Similarly men will say all sorts of things but not say that was sexist" "I think that is considered so impolite and so hurtful, to own up to that bias, that we sneak in a word in front of that, 'unconscious', and suddenly we don't have to feel quite so bad" "And everybody has it" "That focus that makes us calmer about the bias, that's really for the benefit of the people feeling bias" "It's not at all for the benefit of the people on the receiving end of the bias"

Zack Polanski, "Why do we hear this phrase all the time, unconscious bias?" Professor Keon West, "It's incredibly comfortable" "In the UK it's so hard to have a conversation about racism or sexism" "You won't hear people say: I did that and that was a racist thing to do" "You can go on TV and say you hate seeing a bunch of black and brown faces - like Reform UK's Sarah Pochin - and say you cannot be racist, it must be a misunderstanding" "Similarly men will say all sorts of things but not say that was sexist" "I think that is considered so impolite and so hurtful, to own up to that bias, that we sneak in a word in front of that, 'unconscious', and suddenly we don't have to feel quite so bad" "And everybody has it" "That focus that makes us calmer about the bias, that's really for the benefit of the people feeling bias" "It's not at all for the benefit of the people on the receiving end of the bias"

Farrukh

70,597 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Jeff Bezos just explained why changing your mind is a sign of intelligence, not weakness: "You have to be able to be decisive and make decisions quickly. And that's a very hard thing to do as organizations get larger, because so many people have opinions." "The thing to realize is most decisions are reversible. Very rarely are they high-consequence irreversible decisions. By the way, when they are, you should go slowly. Of course. But most decisions can be made by a single high-judgment individual. And if they go the wrong direction, you stop, you back up. It's a two-way door. You come in, you look at it again, and you change your mind." "In politics, people call you a flip-flopper if you change your mind. How foolish would it be to get new data, to have new analysis, to see something in a fresh way, to have that beginner's mind, have a better idea, and not change your mind." "I've noticed that people who are right a lot change their mind a lot." — Jeff Bezos (Jeff Bezos) P.S. We build content infrastructure for founders and athletes. 1.5M views/week average. Your voice, cross platform, compounding daily. If you need massive distribution or want to build your brand, apply here:

Lewis 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

77,540 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Arteta: “To be fair, it's a bit different when you finish second and when you win it with your phone, and that's a sport and it's a big lesson in life as well because the margins are so small and it can go either way. “When you just accomplish it, you realise, yeah, how immense it is, how big it is for so many people. I mean, just to witness the happiness and the enjoyment, all the things that I've seen from all of our supporters, families in different countries, it's just so good.”

Arteta: “To be fair, it's a bit different when you finish second and when you win it with your phone, and that's a sport and it's a big lesson in life as well because the margins are so small and it can go either way. “When you just accomplish it, you realise, yeah, how immense it is, how big it is for so many people. I mean, just to witness the happiness and the enjoyment, all the things that I've seen from all of our supporters, families in different countries, it's just so good.”

Connor Humm

39,215 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Rick Rubin: "Make what you love, not what you think people will like" "If you want to live in a creative way, which will benefit everything in your life, be a better person in your family, do a better job starting a new business, it's all the same. I don't really know anything about music. It's more a way of looking at the world and wanting it to be the best it could possibly be. And doing whatever it takes to be the best it could possibly be." Rubin shares how his career happened: "From the beginning, I never thought any of the things I'm doing were possible or realistic. I just did things out of the love of them, thinking I would have real jobs. That my passion would be my hobby, and I'd have a job to support my hobby. And it just magically turned out different than that without me knowing it was possible." On why some things connect and others don't: "The stars line up at certain times for certain things to happen. Sometimes you can make something great, and it doesn't connect for whatever reason. Sometimes you make two things you think are the two best things you've ever made. One of them connects with the world. One of them doesn't. And it might not have anything to do with what's in the art. It might be that it came out the same day as something else. Or there was a bigger story at the time. There's so much to it that we don't understand." He continues: "All we can do is make something good and put it out and hope for the best. That's all there is. We never know why things work. Even if you make a piece of art and it works, you may not know why." On talent versus work ethic: "There are a lot of talented people who never make it because they don't have the work ethic. It's not just talent, talent's a piece. And you could argue for some people, the work ethic trumps the talent." Rubin explains what real collaboration is: "Having worked with a lot of bands, I see there's often this friction where people are trying to get their idea in. That's not a collaboration. A real collaboration is when everyone who's there is working together towards whatever is the best thing for the whole. Whether it's your idea or someone else's idea, it doesn't matter. If you're invested in the collaboration, you want the best idea to win. You don't want your idea to win." On what makes art great: "What makes it great is the personal. With all of its imperfections. With all of its quirkiness. That's what makes it great. How you see the world that's different from how everyone else sees the world. That's why you're an artist. That's your purpose in sharing your work with the world." He warns against being derivative: "There are these derivative voices where they're finding what they think other people want to hear, and they start saying it because they've heard other people say similar things that are now successful. Even if they have some short-term success doing that, it's not revolutionary. It doesn't change the world. It doesn't last. The people who you first see and you might not like that you come to like because you don't understand them at first, those are the ones that change the world. Those are the ones you dedicate your fandom to for life." Rubin shares his philosophy on taste: "You can't second-guess your own taste for what someone else is going to like. We're not smart enough to know what someone else is going to like. To make something thinking, 'Well, I don't really like it, but I think this group of people will like it,' it's a bad way to play the game of music or art. You have to do what's personal to you. Take it as far as you can go. Really push the boundaries. And people will resonate with it if they're supposed to resonate with it." He describes creativity as catching waves: "We're really talking about magic. The universe conspiring on our behalf if we let it. Being in this flow of catching these waves that anyone can catch. If you're trying to catch it, you're open to it, you see it coming, you take off on every chance you get. And sometimes the ride happens. It's remarkable how it happens. It doesn't come from preconception. It's not an idea. It's through the doing." Rubin explains how ideas exist in the universe: "Have you ever had that experience where you have an idea for something, you don't do it, and then six months later you see someone else has done it? It's not because they took your idea. It's that it's time for that, and you can act on it or not. The best artists are the ones who have the best antenna for this material that's available. It's coming through. The best comedians see the best jokes. They see them coming. We all live in the same world; the way you see it, you have the best joke because you see it best." He closes with how to stay open: "If we listen to what's going on around us, you can overhear a conversation in a coffee shop, and it is the setup for an idea you're working on. You hear a phrase you don't commonly use. My experience is: when you are open and looking for these clues in the world, they're happening all the time. And they're happening often right when you need them."

Rick Rubin: "Make what you love, not what you think people will like" "If you want to live in a creative way, which will benefit everything in your life, be a better person in your family, do a better job starting a new business, it's all the same. I don't really know anything about music. It's more a way of looking at the world and wanting it to be the best it could possibly be. And doing whatever it takes to be the best it could possibly be." Rubin shares how his career happened: "From the beginning, I never thought any of the things I'm doing were possible or realistic. I just did things out of the love of them, thinking I would have real jobs. That my passion would be my hobby, and I'd have a job to support my hobby. And it just magically turned out different than that without me knowing it was possible." On why some things connect and others don't: "The stars line up at certain times for certain things to happen. Sometimes you can make something great, and it doesn't connect for whatever reason. Sometimes you make two things you think are the two best things you've ever made. One of them connects with the world. One of them doesn't. And it might not have anything to do with what's in the art. It might be that it came out the same day as something else. Or there was a bigger story at the time. There's so much to it that we don't understand." He continues: "All we can do is make something good and put it out and hope for the best. That's all there is. We never know why things work. Even if you make a piece of art and it works, you may not know why." On talent versus work ethic: "There are a lot of talented people who never make it because they don't have the work ethic. It's not just talent, talent's a piece. And you could argue for some people, the work ethic trumps the talent." Rubin explains what real collaboration is: "Having worked with a lot of bands, I see there's often this friction where people are trying to get their idea in. That's not a collaboration. A real collaboration is when everyone who's there is working together towards whatever is the best thing for the whole. Whether it's your idea or someone else's idea, it doesn't matter. If you're invested in the collaboration, you want the best idea to win. You don't want your idea to win." On what makes art great: "What makes it great is the personal. With all of its imperfections. With all of its quirkiness. That's what makes it great. How you see the world that's different from how everyone else sees the world. That's why you're an artist. That's your purpose in sharing your work with the world." He warns against being derivative: "There are these derivative voices where they're finding what they think other people want to hear, and they start saying it because they've heard other people say similar things that are now successful. Even if they have some short-term success doing that, it's not revolutionary. It doesn't change the world. It doesn't last. The people who you first see and you might not like that you come to like because you don't understand them at first, those are the ones that change the world. Those are the ones you dedicate your fandom to for life." Rubin shares his philosophy on taste: "You can't second-guess your own taste for what someone else is going to like. We're not smart enough to know what someone else is going to like. To make something thinking, 'Well, I don't really like it, but I think this group of people will like it,' it's a bad way to play the game of music or art. You have to do what's personal to you. Take it as far as you can go. Really push the boundaries. And people will resonate with it if they're supposed to resonate with it." He describes creativity as catching waves: "We're really talking about magic. The universe conspiring on our behalf if we let it. Being in this flow of catching these waves that anyone can catch. If you're trying to catch it, you're open to it, you see it coming, you take off on every chance you get. And sometimes the ride happens. It's remarkable how it happens. It doesn't come from preconception. It's not an idea. It's through the doing." Rubin explains how ideas exist in the universe: "Have you ever had that experience where you have an idea for something, you don't do it, and then six months later you see someone else has done it? It's not because they took your idea. It's that it's time for that, and you can act on it or not. The best artists are the ones who have the best antenna for this material that's available. It's coming through. The best comedians see the best jokes. They see them coming. We all live in the same world; the way you see it, you have the best joke because you see it best." He closes with how to stay open: "If we listen to what's going on around us, you can overhear a conversation in a coffee shop, and it is the setup for an idea you're working on. You hear a phrase you don't commonly use. My experience is: when you are open and looking for these clues in the world, they're happening all the time. And they're happening often right when you need them."

Jaynit

109,609 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

"All the drivers here, they're exceptional. And such a huge part that, I don't know if it gets commented on, is having confidence in the vehicle that you're driving, with the tool that you're using." "When you lose that confidence, you shed a lot of time." "So the confidence has finally come back. And that's what you're seeing today. It's literally just having the confidence to be able to throw that car into the corner, and it's going to stick. And also, just after driving it for so long, you get used to it." [2023 🩷]

"All the drivers here, they're exceptional. And such a huge part that, I don't know if it gets commented on, is having confidence in the vehicle that you're driving, with the tool that you're using." "When you lose that confidence, you shed a lot of time." "So the confidence has finally come back. And that's what you're seeing today. It's literally just having the confidence to be able to throw that car into the corner, and it's going to stick. And also, just after driving it for so long, you get used to it." [2023 🩷]

sim

56,985 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Google co-founder Larry Page on why aiming bigger is often easier than playing it safe: He shares a philosophy he picked up early on that shaped how he thinks about ambition and goal-setting: "I went to a leadership seminar once in Michigan where I came from and they have this great slogan which is have a healthy disregard for the impossible." He explains what that actually means in practice: "You should set really stretched goals that you're not sure you can achieve but are sort of reasonable. You don't want completely outlandish goals." Then he shares the counterintuitive insight that took him by surprise when he was building Google: "One thing that I didn't quite realize when I was starting Google is that it's often easier to have aggressive goals." Most people assume the opposite. They pick smaller, safer targets because they seem more attainable. But Larry argues that approach actually works against you: "A lot of times people pick very specific things they want to do because they think they'll be easier to attain. And what happens if you're being more specific, smaller markets, that kind of thing, you also get less resources." The real question isn't how much you need to get started. It's whether your idea holds up: "The question is, can you make a really good case for what you're doing? Does it make sense? Do you have a really big advantage?" He gives a concrete example: "If you're building robots that are 10 times less complicated than your competitors, that's probably a good business, right? And maybe it takes a lot of money to get started up, maybe it's easier than doing something simpler." Larry's closing point reframes the entire premise: "It's okay to solve a hard problem. That's why you get paid if you're a company."

Google co-founder Larry Page on why aiming bigger is often easier than playing it safe: He shares a philosophy he picked up early on that shaped how he thinks about ambition and goal-setting: "I went to a leadership seminar once in Michigan where I came from and they have this great slogan which is have a healthy disregard for the impossible." He explains what that actually means in practice: "You should set really stretched goals that you're not sure you can achieve but are sort of reasonable. You don't want completely outlandish goals." Then he shares the counterintuitive insight that took him by surprise when he was building Google: "One thing that I didn't quite realize when I was starting Google is that it's often easier to have aggressive goals." Most people assume the opposite. They pick smaller, safer targets because they seem more attainable. But Larry argues that approach actually works against you: "A lot of times people pick very specific things they want to do because they think they'll be easier to attain. And what happens if you're being more specific, smaller markets, that kind of thing, you also get less resources." The real question isn't how much you need to get started. It's whether your idea holds up: "The question is, can you make a really good case for what you're doing? Does it make sense? Do you have a really big advantage?" He gives a concrete example: "If you're building robots that are 10 times less complicated than your competitors, that's probably a good business, right? And maybe it takes a lot of money to get started up, maybe it's easier than doing something simpler." Larry's closing point reframes the entire premise: "It's okay to solve a hard problem. That's why you get paid if you're a company."

Big Brain Business

11,961 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on the possibility of players leaving who have been here a long time: "It's a really, really tough moment, you need to face that reality. But you need to face it with real honesty and transparency because when you are on the other side, that's exactly what you need. "You might not like what you've been told, but if it's truthful, if it's the reality, if it's honest and it's going to help you to make better decisions and have more clarity for the next steps in your career, you have to do that. "These are always very difficult conversations, but they need to be done. It's like when a player doesn't feel that he belongs or he's important, he wants to have a different chapter, I think that communication has to exist and it has to be both ways. "We all know, everything has a start and has an end. When it comes to the end, I think our duty, our responsibility is to do it in the best possible way, maintaining the respect and admiration for the player and the relationship, but understanding that at the end, we need to make football decisions."

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on the possibility of players leaving who have been here a long time: "It's a really, really tough moment, you need to face that reality. But you need to face it with real honesty and transparency because when you are on the other side, that's exactly what you need. "You might not like what you've been told, but if it's truthful, if it's the reality, if it's honest and it's going to help you to make better decisions and have more clarity for the next steps in your career, you have to do that. "These are always very difficult conversations, but they need to be done. It's like when a player doesn't feel that he belongs or he's important, he wants to have a different chapter, I think that communication has to exist and it has to be both ways. "We all know, everything has a start and has an end. When it comes to the end, I think our duty, our responsibility is to do it in the best possible way, maintaining the respect and admiration for the player and the relationship, but understanding that at the end, we need to make football decisions."

Connor Humm

143,296 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

To be a successful founder, you have to believe that what you're working on is going to work — despite knowing it probably won't! That sounds like an oxymoron, but it's really not. Believing that what you're building is going to work is an essential component of coming to work with the energy, fortitude, and determination it's going to require to even have a shot. Knowing it probably won't is accepting the odds of that shot. It's simply the reality that most things in business don't work out. At least not in the long run. Most businesses fail. If not right away, then eventually. Yet the world economy is full of entrepreneurs who try anyway. Not because they don't know the odds, but because they've chosen to believe they're special. The best way to balance these opposing points — the conviction that you'll make it work, the knowledge that it probably won't — is to do all your work in a manner that'll make you proud either way. If it doesn't work, you still made something you wouldn't be ashamed to put your name on. And if it does work, you'll beam with pride from making it on the basis of something solid. The deep regret from trying and failing only truly hits when you look in the mirror and see Dostoevsky staring back at you with this punch to the gut: "Your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing." Oof. Believe it's going to work. Build it in a way that makes you proud to sign it. Base your worth on a human on something greater than a business outcome.

To be a successful founder, you have to believe that what you're working on is going to work — despite knowing it probably won't! That sounds like an oxymoron, but it's really not. Believing that what you're building is going to work is an essential component of coming to work with the energy, fortitude, and determination it's going to require to even have a shot. Knowing it probably won't is accepting the odds of that shot. It's simply the reality that most things in business don't work out. At least not in the long run. Most businesses fail. If not right away, then eventually. Yet the world economy is full of entrepreneurs who try anyway. Not because they don't know the odds, but because they've chosen to believe they're special. The best way to balance these opposing points — the conviction that you'll make it work, the knowledge that it probably won't — is to do all your work in a manner that'll make you proud either way. If it doesn't work, you still made something you wouldn't be ashamed to put your name on. And if it does work, you'll beam with pride from making it on the basis of something solid. The deep regret from trying and failing only truly hits when you look in the mirror and see Dostoevsky staring back at you with this punch to the gut: "Your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing." Oof. Believe it's going to work. Build it in a way that makes you proud to sign it. Base your worth on a human on something greater than a business outcome.

DHH

96,739 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Scott on why conviction in an idea is dangerous as an investor but required as a founder: "From the investor seat, I don't think you want to be in love with an idea. That's a risky thing because you'll find a way to express that by investing and make some compromises on the team because you know this idea is just so good, its time has come. But if the team isn't there, 90% of the time it doesn't work. Then there's a whole thing can you swap out the team? But the whole Founders Fund thesis was always no, you need the founder to run the company. But on the company side, you have to be in love with the idea. It's not that rational to start a company. There's a lot easier, more comfortable ways to make money if that's the goal. So it's got to be about what the company is doing specifically. If you want to actually start a company, it better be something that you're really passionate about, or you think that the problem is really important."

Scott on why conviction in an idea is dangerous as an investor but required as a founder: "From the investor seat, I don't think you want to be in love with an idea. That's a risky thing because you'll find a way to express that by investing and make some compromises on the team because you know this idea is just so good, its time has come. But if the team isn't there, 90% of the time it doesn't work. Then there's a whole thing can you swap out the team? But the whole Founders Fund thesis was always no, you need the founder to run the company. But on the company side, you have to be in love with the idea. It's not that rational to start a company. There's a lot easier, more comfortable ways to make money if that's the goal. So it's got to be about what the company is doing specifically. If you want to actually start a company, it better be something that you're really passionate about, or you think that the problem is really important."

Patrick OShaughnessy

33,016 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Elon Musk: We have to have free speech in order for civilization to advance. “It's a bigger deal than you'd think. It's the kind of thing that you don't know what you're missing until you don't have it. In a lot of places, people don't have it. It's important to bear in mind that the nature of free speech is, the acid test for it is, are people you don't like allowed to say things that you don't like? Otherwise it's not free. It can't be just be things that you like because eventually somebody's not going to like what you say and they're going to shut you up. That's the essence of free speech. That's why it's the First Amendment in this country. And if we lose that, I think we lose the bedrock of democracy.” From: NBC Universal Marketing Conference, April 18, 2023

Elon Musk: We have to have free speech in order for civilization to advance. “It's a bigger deal than you'd think. It's the kind of thing that you don't know what you're missing until you don't have it. In a lot of places, people don't have it. It's important to bear in mind that the nature of free speech is, the acid test for it is, are people you don't like allowed to say things that you don't like? Otherwise it's not free. It can't be just be things that you like because eventually somebody's not going to like what you say and they're going to shut you up. That's the essence of free speech. That's why it's the First Amendment in this country. And if we lose that, I think we lose the bedrock of democracy.” From: NBC Universal Marketing Conference, April 18, 2023

ELON CLIPS

33,631 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

UFO Revolution: S2E3 - 2027 and the Approaching Craft. Is it a Lie? "You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That 100 f**king percent is the lie you are going to be told." ~Corbell (Well, I was not expecting this. And right now, I don't know what to think. But we all know it's been hinted at by various folks, including Lue Elizondo. So what's going on?) ~ Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell: "Your government now wants you to know one truth, and that truth is that UFOs are real. They've already done told you. Sometimes, when you want somebody to know a truth, it's so you can set them up to believe a lie, and that's coming. I have zero doubt that lie is coming." Producer: "What is the lie?" Corbell: "Specifically, you want me to say it right now, for real, real? On camera, to be put in the show?" Producer: "Yes." Corbell: "Okay. Problem with that: If we tell the lie before it's told, they can adapt. That wouldn't be wise. I'll tell you privately, but I would really think about if you want to put this in your show. For real. That's a real thing I'm telling you. So, will you think about it before putting it in your show?" Producer: "Absolutely." Corbell: "Okay. So UFOs are real, and they've been here a long time, and that's the truth. But the lie is coming. All indications, like ALL of them, is that that lie is going to be that there is a craft slowly making its way to us here on Earth. And that is the lie they're gonna want you to believe. "It's nuanced, how they explain that, the nature of that threat. But that 100 f**king percent is the lie you are going to be told. You even got a date. People been whispering a date for a long time now. I know where that lie comes from. I know, specifically, what document from the 70s initiated the idea of that lie. A classified document. That is the lie you will be told. You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That's the lie. "Maybe I'm wrong. Hope I'm wrong. I sent you two texts today with a year (Messages showing 2027 are shown on a cell phone). Not from me. Nope, I'm not gonna propagate that lie. I'm not gonna be part of it, I'm not going to say it to the camera. Everybody knows. Just start paying attention. And they'll change the date - especially if they see this - things will change. Because maybe I'm trustworthy, maybe I'm worthy of your trust, maybe I've told you the truth the whole way through it and now and you can verify it. If that's the case, then I'm f**king dangerous. "You've been told the truth about UFOs for a long time now. It's been pretty orchestrated, it's been pretty clear, and it's using people that are telling the truth and wanna tell the truth. Ultimately, they want you to know something. They want you to know UFOs are real. Thank God, we're finally there, we're all there now. They want you to know the truth. But why [do] they want you to know that truth now. I hope I'm wrong, but it's terrifying. Think about it "Maybe it's good to get ahead of it, call it out now, before they do it. I'll be called crazy. That's okay."

UFO Revolution: S2E3 - 2027 and the Approaching Craft. Is it a Lie? "You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That 100 fking percent is the lie you are going to be told." ~Corbell (Well, I was not expecting this. And right now, I don't know what to think. But we all know it's been hinted at by various folks, including Lue Elizondo. So what's going on?) ~ Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell: "Your government now wants you to know one truth, and that truth is that UFOs are real. They've already done told you. Sometimes, when you want somebody to know a truth, it's so you can set them up to believe a lie, and that's coming. I have zero doubt that lie is coming." Producer: "What is the lie?" Corbell: "Specifically, you want me to say it right now, for real, real? On camera, to be put in the show?" Producer: "Yes." Corbell: "Okay. Problem with that: If we tell the lie before it's told, they can adapt. That wouldn't be wise. I'll tell you privately, but I would really think about if you want to put this in your show. For real. That's a real thing I'm telling you. So, will you think about it before putting it in your show?" Producer: "Absolutely." Corbell: "Okay. So UFOs are real, and they've been here a long time, and that's the truth. But the lie is coming. All indications, like ALL of them, is that that lie is going to be that there is a craft slowly making its way to us here on Earth. And that is the lie they're gonna want you to believe. "It's nuanced, how they explain that, the nature of that threat. But that 100 fking percent is the lie you are going to be told. You even got a date. People been whispering a date for a long time now. I know where that lie comes from. I know, specifically, what document from the 70s initiated the idea of that lie. A classified document. That is the lie you will be told. You're gonna be told that there is a craft on its way to Earth. That's the lie. "Maybe I'm wrong. Hope I'm wrong. I sent you two texts today with a year (Messages showing 2027 are shown on a cell phone). Not from me. Nope, I'm not gonna propagate that lie. I'm not gonna be part of it, I'm not going to say it to the camera. Everybody knows. Just start paying attention. And they'll change the date - especially if they see this - things will change. Because maybe I'm trustworthy, maybe I'm worthy of your trust, maybe I've told you the truth the whole way through it and now and you can verify it. If that's the case, then I'm f**king dangerous. "You've been told the truth about UFOs for a long time now. It's been pretty orchestrated, it's been pretty clear, and it's using people that are telling the truth and wanna tell the truth. Ultimately, they want you to know something. They want you to know UFOs are real. Thank God, we're finally there, we're all there now. They want you to know the truth. But why [do] they want you to know that truth now. I hope I'm wrong, but it's terrifying. Think about it "Maybe it's good to get ahead of it, call it out now, before they do it. I'll be called crazy. That's okay."

Joe Murgia

785,120 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Andy Reid shares the 4 things that players crave the most - and it's not what you think. "They want consistency. So I try to make it as consistent as possible." "But most of all, in your relationship with them, they don't want you to tell them a lie. They want the truth." "Sometimes the truth is good. And sometimes it's not so good. But they want that." You can't build a strong relationship without consistency and honesty. "I've found over the years that's the best way - as tough as it is for a coach - to tell somebody that's giving you their all every day, and they're making a living at this, that listen... you're not going to make it here." The hardest conversations are often the most important ones. "I try to give them the whys." Don't just deliver the news. Explain it. Help them understand. People want to be respected and they want to trust you. Give them: 1. Direction 2. Consistency 3. The Truth 4. The Why's By doing this, you build connection, trust, and a strong relationship as a result. (🎥 HeadCoachU with Bronco Mendenhall)

Andy Reid shares the 4 things that players crave the most - and it's not what you think. "They want consistency. So I try to make it as consistent as possible." "But most of all, in your relationship with them, they don't want you to tell them a lie. They want the truth." "Sometimes the truth is good. And sometimes it's not so good. But they want that." You can't build a strong relationship without consistency and honesty. "I've found over the years that's the best way - as tough as it is for a coach - to tell somebody that's giving you their all every day, and they're making a living at this, that listen... you're not going to make it here." The hardest conversations are often the most important ones. "I try to give them the whys." Don't just deliver the news. Explain it. Help them understand. People want to be respected and they want to trust you. Give them: 1. Direction 2. Consistency 3. The Truth 4. The Why's By doing this, you build connection, trust, and a strong relationship as a result. (🎥 HeadCoachU with Bronco Mendenhall)

Coach AJ 🎯 Mental Fitness

30,015 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

AI agents don’t feel the pain that humans do. 3 takeaways from Mario Zechner(Mario Zechner), creator of Pi - the minimalist, self-modifying agent that OpenClaw is built on: #1 - Automation bias: agents quickly wow us and win false trust: “There are moments of brilliance in agents where they spit out perfectly fine simple code. As the steering engineer you can look at that and think: ‘Wow, this is amazing. I can just sit back and not care because it's doing the thing how I would do it.’ Two minutes later you have another agent running that spits out the worst, horrible, garbage code, but you might not notice because you have fallen into automation bias and think your agent is doing the job well.” #2 - Humans have a different capacity for learning than agents: “Agents don't learn. You can put as much stuff in your AGENTS.md, build a memory system, but it's not the same type of learning that a human does. Humans are failable as well, but they have some capability of learning.” #3 - Feeling pain is inherently human and drives us to make things well: “Humans feel pain. I think that's one of the defining things about humans. If the pain gets too big, you as a human are incentivized to fix the cause of your pain. In a code base, the cause is usually terrible interfaces and terrible complexity that you want to get rid of because you can no longer maintain that system.”

AI agents don’t feel the pain that humans do. 3 takeaways from Mario Zechner(Mario Zechner), creator of Pi - the minimalist, self-modifying agent that OpenClaw is built on: #1 - Automation bias: agents quickly wow us and win false trust: “There are moments of brilliance in agents where they spit out perfectly fine simple code. As the steering engineer you can look at that and think: ‘Wow, this is amazing. I can just sit back and not care because it's doing the thing how I would do it.’ Two minutes later you have another agent running that spits out the worst, horrible, garbage code, but you might not notice because you have fallen into automation bias and think your agent is doing the job well.” #2 - Humans have a different capacity for learning than agents: “Agents don't learn. You can put as much stuff in your AGENTS.md, build a memory system, but it's not the same type of learning that a human does. Humans are failable as well, but they have some capability of learning.” #3 - Feeling pain is inherently human and drives us to make things well: “Humans feel pain. I think that's one of the defining things about humans. If the pain gets too big, you as a human are incentivized to fix the cause of your pain. In a code base, the cause is usually terrible interfaces and terrible complexity that you want to get rid of because you can no longer maintain that system.”

The Pragmatic Engineer

11,282 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Jeff Bezos: “Any high-performing organization has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth telling” As Jeff explains in the clip below: “Truths often don’t want to be heard. Important truths can be uncomfortable, awkward, exhausting, challenging. They can make people defensive, even if that’s not the intent. But any high-performing organization—whether it’s a sports team, a business, a political organization, or activist group—has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth telling.” And one of the things you have to do to support this kind of culture is talk about it: “You have to talk about the fact that it takes energy to do that. And you have to remind people that it’s ok that it’s uncomfortable. You have to literally tell people: it’s not what we’re designed to do as humans… we mostly survive by being social animals—cordial and cooperative.” He continues: “You also want to set up your culture so that the most junior person can overrule the most senior person.” And in every meeting Jeff attends, he always speaks last: “I know from experience that if I speak first, even very strong-willed, highly-intelligent participants of that meeting will [wonder if their ideas are incorrect because they’re different from Jeff’s]… Ideally you try to have the most junior go first and then go in order of seniority so that you can hear everyone’s opinion in an unfiltered way… Because we really do change our opinions—if somebody you really respect says something, it makes you change your mind a little.” Jeff also points out that a lot of the most powerful truths aren’t always based on data—they turn out to be hunches, are based on anecdotes, or are intuition-based: “You may feel yourself leaning in. It may resonate with a set of anecdotes you have. And then you may be able to say: ‘something about that feels right. Let’s go collect some data on that and try to see if we can know if it’s right.’” And lastly he discusses fighting inherent biases. For example, most companies usually have an optimism bias. As Jeff explains: “If there are two interpretations of a new set of data—one is happy and the other is unhappy—it’s a little dangerous to jump to the conclusion that the happy interpretation is right. You may want to compensate for that human bias of trying to find the silver lining and say ‘that might be good, but I’m gonna go with it’s bad for now until we’re sure.’”

Jeff Bezos: “Any high-performing organization has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth telling” As Jeff explains in the clip below: “Truths often don’t want to be heard. Important truths can be uncomfortable, awkward, exhausting, challenging. They can make people defensive, even if that’s not the intent. But any high-performing organization—whether it’s a sports team, a business, a political organization, or activist group—has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth telling.” And one of the things you have to do to support this kind of culture is talk about it: “You have to talk about the fact that it takes energy to do that. And you have to remind people that it’s ok that it’s uncomfortable. You have to literally tell people: it’s not what we’re designed to do as humans… we mostly survive by being social animals—cordial and cooperative.” He continues: “You also want to set up your culture so that the most junior person can overrule the most senior person.” And in every meeting Jeff attends, he always speaks last: “I know from experience that if I speak first, even very strong-willed, highly-intelligent participants of that meeting will [wonder if their ideas are incorrect because they’re different from Jeff’s]… Ideally you try to have the most junior go first and then go in order of seniority so that you can hear everyone’s opinion in an unfiltered way… Because we really do change our opinions—if somebody you really respect says something, it makes you change your mind a little.” Jeff also points out that a lot of the most powerful truths aren’t always based on data—they turn out to be hunches, are based on anecdotes, or are intuition-based: “You may feel yourself leaning in. It may resonate with a set of anecdotes you have. And then you may be able to say: ‘something about that feels right. Let’s go collect some data on that and try to see if we can know if it’s right.’” And lastly he discusses fighting inherent biases. For example, most companies usually have an optimism bias. As Jeff explains: “If there are two interpretations of a new set of data—one is happy and the other is unhappy—it’s a little dangerous to jump to the conclusion that the happy interpretation is right. You may want to compensate for that human bias of trying to find the silver lining and say ‘that might be good, but I’m gonna go with it’s bad for now until we’re sure.’”

Startup Archive

1,201,462 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🚨TRUMP: I'm not a fan of what Russia's doing either, just so you understand. All right? But it's a lot different. You're talking about a country that has been evil for 47 years (Iran). JOURNALIST: Sir, if you end up hitting those Iranian power plants, how is that different from what Russia has been doing in Ukraine by hitting Ukrainian power plants? TRUNP: Well, I think it's a lot different, and if you look at the nuclear weapons that they wanted to have (Iranians), that they wanted to possess, a lot of things are different. I'm not a fan of what Russia's doing either, just so you understand. All right? But it's a lot different. You're talking about a country that has been evil for 47 years (Iran). They've been horrible. Death all over the world, not just us. Look at the way they attacked unexpectedly all of those countries surrounding them. That, it was not supposed to... Nobody was even thinking about it, but they wanted to take over the Middle East, and they wanted to knock out Israel permanently. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would've been able to do that

🚨TRUMP: I'm not a fan of what Russia's doing either, just so you understand. All right? But it's a lot different. You're talking about a country that has been evil for 47 years (Iran). JOURNALIST: Sir, if you end up hitting those Iranian power plants, how is that different from what Russia has been doing in Ukraine by hitting Ukrainian power plants? TRUNP: Well, I think it's a lot different, and if you look at the nuclear weapons that they wanted to have (Iranians), that they wanted to possess, a lot of things are different. I'm not a fan of what Russia's doing either, just so you understand. All right? But it's a lot different. You're talking about a country that has been evil for 47 years (Iran). They've been horrible. Death all over the world, not just us. Look at the way they attacked unexpectedly all of those countries surrounding them. That, it was not supposed to... Nobody was even thinking about it, but they wanted to take over the Middle East, and they wanted to knock out Israel permanently. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they would've been able to do that

Kateryna Lisunova

17,446 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten