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Agreed. I particularly enjoyed this part where he shared advice for how founders can foster the confidence to take on big challenges— “It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity… the risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than... show more

Rob Mohr

6,583 subscribers

18,065 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 6

Фото профиля Andrew Wilkinson

Andrew Wilkinson1 год назад

Really enjoyed this Andrew Ross Sorkin interview with @JeffBezos, especially the part around 44 minutes where he discusses becoming more emotionally open over time. Super interesting:

Фото профиля David Senra

David Senra1 год назад

@awilkinson @JeffBezos I loved that part. Also you got me hooked on the Vince McMahon documentary!

Фото профиля Mitchell Wilson ⚡️

Mitchell Wilson ⚡️1 год назад

Gotta watch this, perfect timing for some upcoming ambitious decision making

Фото профиля Sean Allen Fenn

Sean Allen Fenn1 год назад

@awilkinson @JeffBezos Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy. 💯

Фото профиля Saurav

Saurav1 год назад

@awilkinson @JeffBezos 💯

Фото профиля Emmanuel Hermanez

Emmanuel Hermanez1 год назад

@awilkinson @JeffBezos One of the best interviews . Lots of valuable insights

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Jeff Bezos: Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so, I think entrepreneurs in general would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive.

Jeff Bezos: Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so, I think entrepreneurs in general would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive.

Arjun Khemani

148,226 просмотров • 1 год назад

Jeff Bezos: “Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy” Bezos is asked where he gets the confidence to even attempt to build companies of such massive scale, like Amazon and Blue Origin. He responds: “I think it’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well-advised to try and bias against that. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… You say it’s confidence, but maybe I’m just accepting that human bias and trying to compensate against it. The second thing I would point out is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Video source: New York Times Events (2024)

Jeff Bezos: “Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy” Bezos is asked where he gets the confidence to even attempt to build companies of such massive scale, like Amazon and Blue Origin. He responds: “I think it’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well-advised to try and bias against that. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… You say it’s confidence, but maybe I’m just accepting that human bias and trying to compensate against it. The second thing I would point out is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Video source: New York Times Events (2024)

Startup Archive

272,557 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has a surprising theory about the "confidence" behind great founders: it might not be confidence at all. When the idea of confidence comes up, Bezos offers a different explanation: "You say it's confidence, but maybe it's just trying to compensate for that... accepting that that's a human bias and trying to compensate against it." So what is the bias? "I think it's generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity." Your instincts don't just make the risks look bigger than they are. They also make the opportunities look smaller than they are. Both errors push you in the same direction: toward doing less. Bezos's correction: "The risks are probably not as big as you perceive and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive." This is why he says entrepreneurs "would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature." Seen this way, the founder who looks fearless may not have a different personality from you. They may simply have accepted that their instincts are tilted and learned to adjust for it on purpose. That's not a trait you're born with. It's a correction you can choose to make. And if you don't make it, Jeff Bezos warns there's a cost: "Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy." Let the bias set your ambitions, and you'll get small results that seem to prove small was all that was possible.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has a surprising theory about the "confidence" behind great founders: it might not be confidence at all. When the idea of confidence comes up, Bezos offers a different explanation: "You say it's confidence, but maybe it's just trying to compensate for that... accepting that that's a human bias and trying to compensate against it." So what is the bias? "I think it's generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity." Your instincts don't just make the risks look bigger than they are. They also make the opportunities look smaller than they are. Both errors push you in the same direction: toward doing less. Bezos's correction: "The risks are probably not as big as you perceive and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive." This is why he says entrepreneurs "would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature." Seen this way, the founder who looks fearless may not have a different personality from you. They may simply have accepted that their instincts are tilted and learned to adjust for it on purpose. That's not a trait you're born with. It's a correction you can choose to make. And if you don't make it, Jeff Bezos warns there's a cost: "Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy." Let the bias set your ambitions, and you'll get small results that seem to prove small was all that was possible.

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Ben McCollum on how he thinks prospective high school and portal players will perceive Iowa, considering what the program is accomplishing this season: “If you’re a tough dude, this is a good spot for you. If you’re soft and you like yourself way too much, this is probably not the spot for you. We just try to recruit tough dudes that want to be part of something bigger than themselves, and hopefully people see that.”

Ben McCollum on how he thinks prospective high school and portal players will perceive Iowa, considering what the program is accomplishing this season: “If you’re a tough dude, this is a good spot for you. If you’re soft and you like yourself way too much, this is probably not the spot for you. We just try to recruit tough dudes that want to be part of something bigger than themselves, and hopefully people see that.”

Tyler Tachman

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This is BIG — and this is personal for me. First Lady MELANIA TRUMP , I want to thank you for this. I grew up in foster care, so seeing you fight for kids who grew up just like me means more than you probably realize. I had the opportunity to go on Laura Ingraham and talk about what you’re doing for foster children and why it matters so much. These kids deserve to know they are seen. They deserve opportunity. They deserve a real shot at the American Dream. No matter your background, your race, where you come from, or how your story started, your future can still be bigger than your past. Thank you, Laura Ingraham, for inviting me on. As an adoptive mother, I know this is close to your heart too. Melania, thank you for being a champion for these kids. I would truly love the opportunity to help with your initiative one day in any way I can. I was once one of those foster kids. That’s why this will always be personal for me. 🇺🇸❤️

This is BIG — and this is personal for me. First Lady MELANIA TRUMP , I want to thank you for this. I grew up in foster care, so seeing you fight for kids who grew up just like me means more than you probably realize. I had the opportunity to go on Laura Ingraham and talk about what you’re doing for foster children and why it matters so much. These kids deserve to know they are seen. They deserve opportunity. They deserve a real shot at the American Dream. No matter your background, your race, where you come from, or how your story started, your future can still be bigger than your past. Thank you, Laura Ingraham, for inviting me on. As an adoptive mother, I know this is close to your heart too. Melania, thank you for being a champion for these kids. I would truly love the opportunity to help with your initiative one day in any way I can. I was once one of those foster kids. That’s why this will always be personal for me. 🇺🇸❤️

Terrence K. Williams

158,511 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

ELON: TRY TO BE AS USEFUL AS POSSIBLE TO SOCIETY Elon was asked what advice he gives his children. He paused, then shared a simple rule he lives by. His focus, as always, was on contribution and purpose over comfort or gain: “Best advice for kids. Well, generally my advice is just to try to be as useful as possible to society. You know, be a good person and just try to give more than you take. You know, that is a big deal.” Source: ELON CLIPS

ELON: TRY TO BE AS USEFUL AS POSSIBLE TO SOCIETY Elon was asked what advice he gives his children. He paused, then shared a simple rule he lives by. His focus, as always, was on contribution and purpose over comfort or gain: “Best advice for kids. Well, generally my advice is just to try to be as useful as possible to society. You know, be a good person and just try to give more than you take. You know, that is a big deal.” Source: ELON CLIPS

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Rob Reiner on the comparisons between "The Sure Thing" (1985) & "It Happened One Night" (1934): "A lot of people have said 'The Sure Thing' (1985) was like a teenage version of 'It Happened One Night' (1934). It’s hard to believe but at that point I’d never seen that movie. I’ve subsequently seen it and the only thing that’s comparable to me is that it’s on the road and the two people who don’t particularly like each other fall in love. The only thing that I ever shoot for is to try to be as good as I can be at the time. You may look back on something you’ve done ten, twelve years ago and say, “Well, that’s not as good as I can do now.” And it’s really irrelevant. The only thing you can go by is whether this as good as you can do at the time you’re doing it. And I felt when I finished 'The Sure Thing', it was as good as I could do at that time." ("The Directors - Take Two", Robert J. Emery, 2002)

Rob Reiner on the comparisons between "The Sure Thing" (1985) & "It Happened One Night" (1934): "A lot of people have said 'The Sure Thing' (1985) was like a teenage version of 'It Happened One Night' (1934). It’s hard to believe but at that point I’d never seen that movie. I’ve subsequently seen it and the only thing that’s comparable to me is that it’s on the road and the two people who don’t particularly like each other fall in love. The only thing that I ever shoot for is to try to be as good as I can be at the time. You may look back on something you’ve done ten, twelve years ago and say, “Well, that’s not as good as I can do now.” And it’s really irrelevant. The only thing you can go by is whether this as good as you can do at the time you’re doing it. And I felt when I finished 'The Sure Thing', it was as good as I could do at that time." ("The Directors - Take Two", Robert J. Emery, 2002)

DepressedBergman

91,700 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

As a coach, I can’t force you to be confident, and I can’t make you confident. I can show you the ways to be confident and help you lead to the place where confidence is gained, but the work that leads to confidence is on you.

As a coach, I can’t force you to be confident, and I can’t make you confident. I can show you the ways to be confident and help you lead to the place where confidence is gained, but the work that leads to confidence is on you.

Jhasmin Player

21,379 просмотров • 1 год назад

Reed Hastings has served on the boards of Meta, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Bloomberg. He says the job of a board member is not to add value or give advice. It is to replace the CEO. "If the company falls apart, I will be part of replacing the CEO. That's basically the entire job. To have the confidence to do that, you have to learn the business. Board members are not here to add value. They can hire consultants who know the industry and are not conflicted for advice. So I shouldn’t spend my time trying to give advice. I'm here as a board member as an insurance layer. Don't measure yourself by did you give a suggestion? Measure yourself by did you get more prepared for the small chance that you will have to take big action."

Reed Hastings has served on the boards of Meta, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Bloomberg. He says the job of a board member is not to add value or give advice. It is to replace the CEO. "If the company falls apart, I will be part of replacing the CEO. That's basically the entire job. To have the confidence to do that, you have to learn the business. Board members are not here to add value. They can hire consultants who know the industry and are not conflicted for advice. So I shouldn’t spend my time trying to give advice. I'm here as a board member as an insurance layer. Don't measure yourself by did you give a suggestion? Measure yourself by did you get more prepared for the small chance that you will have to take big action."

Invest Like the Best

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Reed explains that the job of a board member is not to add value or give advice. It is to replace the CEO: "If the company falls apart, I will be part of replacing the CEO. That's basically the entire job. To have the confidence to do that, you have to learn the business. Board members are not here to add value. They can hire consultants who know the industry and are not conflicted for advice. So I shouldn't spend my time trying to give advice. So then what am I doing? I'm here as a board member as an insurance layer. Don't measure yourself by did you give a suggestion? Measure yourself by did you get more prepared for the small chance that you will have to take big action."

Reed explains that the job of a board member is not to add value or give advice. It is to replace the CEO: "If the company falls apart, I will be part of replacing the CEO. That's basically the entire job. To have the confidence to do that, you have to learn the business. Board members are not here to add value. They can hire consultants who know the industry and are not conflicted for advice. So I shouldn't spend my time trying to give advice. So then what am I doing? I'm here as a board member as an insurance layer. Don't measure yourself by did you give a suggestion? Measure yourself by did you get more prepared for the small chance that you will have to take big action."

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Historian Niall Ferguson: Despite risks, overthrowing the regime in Iran would be a positive step for Iranians, the region, and the world. “Is there a risk to toppling Khamenei? Yeah, there is. Is there a risk to leaving the guy in power and whoever succeeds him when he finally croaks? There’s a big risk to that. I would say, on balance, it’s a bigger risk to leave this regime in place. It’s just shown what it’s capable of.”

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People really need to hear this, as it highlights how big a problem the abuse and trafficking of children has been - and still is - across the whole of Britain. Have you heard about the town of Auchinleck in Scotland? I hadn’t until yesterday… probably because it’s one small village which is easy to silence - and equally easy to punish when they do fight back. Big thanks to survivor and campaigner Dave Sharp for speaking about this yesterday (and for his permission to share this recording)! Please give him a follow and support his work. 🙏

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Citrini says the real preclinical bottleneck is monkeys, which take four years to breed and are harder to scale than memory supply “There’s a huge shortage of monkeys and the the you can’t really, that’s probably the most important thing for pre-clinical testing." "And I know a lot of people are going to be like morally opposed to this, but I’ll just say one thing, which is for the, you know, the medicine is closer than ever before to a world where it really is, I say closer than ever before, that doesn’t mean this is going to happen tomorrow or within the next two years or what, but closer to a world where in silica or on on a computer you can simulate, say, like toxicology studies, right, and and reduce the need for animal testing." "I know that sounds counterintuitive because it’s, okay, well, why are you like investing in this company that that does animal testing? Well, the reason for that is in order to get closer to that world, what you need is more data, right? Like you need, you need more experimental data from animal testing, and monkeys are irreplaceable, right?" "Unless you want to do them in humans. If you want to get as close as possible to humans, obviously the answer is monkeys. And it’s it’s harder to expand the capacity of monkeys than it is to increase the supply of memory, right? Like the the the time it takes, I think it’s four years to to breed these these monkeys.”

Citrini says the real preclinical bottleneck is monkeys, which take four years to breed and are harder to scale than memory supply “There’s a huge shortage of monkeys and the the you can’t really, that’s probably the most important thing for pre-clinical testing." "And I know a lot of people are going to be like morally opposed to this, but I’ll just say one thing, which is for the, you know, the medicine is closer than ever before to a world where it really is, I say closer than ever before, that doesn’t mean this is going to happen tomorrow or within the next two years or what, but closer to a world where in silica or on on a computer you can simulate, say, like toxicology studies, right, and and reduce the need for animal testing." "I know that sounds counterintuitive because it’s, okay, well, why are you like investing in this company that that does animal testing? Well, the reason for that is in order to get closer to that world, what you need is more data, right? Like you need, you need more experimental data from animal testing, and monkeys are irreplaceable, right?" "Unless you want to do them in humans. If you want to get as close as possible to humans, obviously the answer is monkeys. And it’s it’s harder to expand the capacity of monkeys than it is to increase the supply of memory, right? Like the the the time it takes, I think it’s four years to to breed these these monkeys.”

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