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🚨ANALYSIS: CLAIM OF MULTIPLE FISSILE WARHEADS First… precision matters. “Multiple fissile warheads” implies MIRV capability carrying multiple nuclear reentry vehicles. There is no verified evidence that Iran has deployed operational nuclear MIRVs in active combat. What videos like this usually show are one of three things: Cluster munitions dispersing...

13,982 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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On the Oreshnik and the eternal question about the warhead There is a particular type of commentator who, after every Oreshnik strike, routinely asks the same question. Was there even a warhead in it this time? The question is meant to suggest that the weapon, without a classical explosive payload, is somehow fake or less dangerous. What it really reveals is that the person asking does not understand how the system works. A conventional ballistic missile carries explosives or a nuclear warhead. The destruction comes from the detonation at the target. The missile is essentially the delivery service. The Oreshnik works differently. It is an intermediate-range missile (range around 5000 kilometers) carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). These reentry vehicles enter the atmosphere at roughly Mach 10 to Mach 12, with Russian sources claiming higher in some cases. That works out to 3 to 3.5 kilometers per second on terminal approach. This is where the physics comes in. Kinetic energy is calculated as E = 0.5 times mass times velocity squared. Velocity enters the equation as a square. A reentry vehicle of a few hundred kilograms, on impact alone, releases energy in the range of several tons of TNT equivalent. With multiple submunitions per missile, that adds up. A tungsten or steel core entering the ground at this speed produces temperatures of several thousand degrees through friction and compression shock. Bunkers and hardened installations are not destroyed by an explosion, they are destroyed by the sheer force and heat of the impact itself. The technical term is kinetic penetration. Now to the actual answer for the warhead-askers. Yes, the Oreshnik is nuclear-capable. This was part of the design from the start, not a retrofit, but a built-in configuration option. Russian officials have stated this openly. The carrier is there. The only question is what it carries. But that is exactly the point the warhead-asker skips over. The whole point of the Oreshnik is that even in its conventional configuration it achieves an effect that previously required nuclear weapons against hardened targets. To destroy an underground command bunker, historically you needed a small tactical nuclear weapon. Today a reentry vehicle at Mach 10 with a few hundred kilograms of mass is enough. No radioactive fallout, no crossing of the nuclear threshold, no political price attached to a nuclear use. In a strike on a major city, the nuclear configuration would, in this conflict, almost certainly not be deployed. Not because it does not exist, but because it is neither necessary nor politically tenable for that purpose. The conventional version is sufficient to send a message without crossing the threshold above which entirely different chains of escalation are set in motion. In short. The question "was there a warhead in it?" misses the point. The Oreshnik does not need a large warhead, because its velocity is the weapon. It can carry a nuclear warhead, at any time. It just does not do so in the current conflict, because it does not have to.

Zlatti71

36,467 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇷🇺 RUSSIA'S "UNINTERCEPTABLE" HYPERSONIC MISSILE GOES LIVE IN BELARUS - BY NEW YEAR'S Belarus just confirmed: the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system will be on combat duty in December 2025. That means Putin will have nuclear-capable missiles that can hit anywhere in Europe, travel at Mach 10+, and evade existing European defenses - deployed roughly 60 km from Minsk by year’s end. What Oreshnik is: An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) derived from Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. It carries multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) - six warheads, each dispersing submunitions, a capability previously associated almost exclusively with nuclear systems. Estimates go up to 36 submunitions per missile. The speed: Putin claims speeds up to Mach 10. Ukrainian military officials told CNN it reached Mach 11. Russian officials insist its warheads are effectively immune to interception. The range: Russia’s missile forces chief says Oreshnik can reach all of Europe. Russian state media claims: 11 minutes to Poland 17 minutes to NATO headquarters in Brussels First combat use: November 21, 2024 - strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. The missile reportedly carried inert or “dummy” warheads, but the kinetic energy alone caused significant damage. A CSIS director noted that even non-explosive hypersonic impacts can be devastating. Why it matters: Most European missile defenses are ineffective against Oreshnik. It flies above the engagement envelope of many systems and descends too quickly for terminal defenses like Patriot. Only Arrow 3 and SM-3 Block IIA have theoretical intercept capability - and inventories are limited. The conventional threat: In a NATO conflict, Russia could strike air bases, command centers, and missile sites with conventional Oreshniks, achieving strategic effects without using nuclear weapons. Foreign Policy notes it may take dozens of Iskanders to neutralize a major air base, but far fewer Oreshniks. Production status: August 1, 2025: Putin says Oreshnik entered service and first batch delivered November 4, 2025: Putin claims serial production underway The constraint: Zelensky claims Russia can produce only about six Oreshnik missiles per year. Ukrainian forces also claim one system was destroyed at Kapustin Yar, leaving two operational. The deployment: Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed combat duty by December: “Oreshnik is a scary weapon. It will be put on combat duty in December.” Satellite imagery in late August 2025 showed launch-site preparation about 60 km south of Minsk. The strategic shift: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Adding IRBMs places most European capitals within minutes of impact and shortens NATO reaction time dramatically. Expert assessment: Nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis says Oreshnik combines existing technologies rather than introducing revolutionary ones. A University of Oslo defense expert estimates no more than 10% new components. However, analyst Mathieu Boulegue argues its real value is psychological - intimidating Western audiences rather than changing battlefield dynamics. Putin’s messaging: Putin warned Oreshnik could be used against NATO allies enabling Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. In December 2024, he said the missile brings Russia “close to having no need to use nuclear weapons.” The context: The November 2024 strike came days after Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear response to include certain conventional attacks supported by nuclear powers. What’s actually happening: Russia is deploying intermediate-range missiles banned under the INF Treaty until the U.S. withdrawal in 2019 - capable of delivering conventional or nuclear warheads along trajectories Europe struggles to intercept. Decades of NATO base consolidation mean airpower is concentrated in a few high-value sites, making them uniquely vulnerable to Oreshnik’s submunition dispersal. Bottom line: By December 31, 2025, Russia will have Oreshnik missiles on combat alert in Belarus - roughly 60 km from Minsk - aimed at NATO bases, command centers, and capitals. 11 minutes to Warsaw. 17 minutes to Brussels. Conventional or nuclear. You don’t know which until impact. The deterrence calculus has shifted. Russia can now threaten massive conventional damage without crossing the nuclear threshold - using missiles Europe largely cannot stop. And they’re going live in 2 weeks. Source: The Kyiv Independent, CNN, Defense Feeds, Foreign Policy, Business Standard, TASS

Mario Nawfal

46,590 次观看 • 6 个月前