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Another PCA Classic yesterday, the difficult play he makes look routine. Just 40% catch prob. What is the eye test missing? Great jump, elite speed, and he was positioned well into right-center.

The WARmonger

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163,335 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

The WARmonger

437,897 views • 1 year ago

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

The WARmonger

324,332 views • 1 year ago

another angle… the leg strength this takes is insane… and the squat uses up the speed into the jump too yet it's a huge jump… there is truly no difficult entry he can't do into a quad

another angle… the leg strength this takes is insane… and the squat uses up the speed into the jump too yet it's a huge jump… there is truly no difficult entry he can't do into a quad

Rose_ 🕊️🪶🏹

53,897 views • 2 months ago

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

The WARmonger

958,386 views • 1 year ago

Pretty routine catch by Cam Smith, no? No. Only 60% of MLB outfielders catch this ball, and most make it look much tougher, many even diving. Why? It's what happens before the camera is on the play. The jump, and then the route. Jump: +5.6 feet above average Route: 99% route efficiency (Oh, and he homered twice as well, let the kids play!)

Pretty routine catch by Cam Smith, no? No. Only 60% of MLB outfielders catch this ball, and most make it look much tougher, many even diving. Why? It's what happens before the camera is on the play. The jump, and then the route. Jump: +5.6 feet above average Route: 99% route efficiency (Oh, and he homered twice as well, let the kids play!)

The WARmonger

318,530 views • 1 year ago

You didn't notice this play, did you? Not a single request. Makes sense, he didn't even need to dive. 35% catch probability. Isaac Collins is #1 in the league in jumps, leading PCA and Rafaela by nearly two feet. His jump on this ball was +11.7 feet above average, just astounding. Collins had to cover 115 feet. He makes it look incredibly easy, all due to that jump.

You didn't notice this play, did you? Not a single request. Makes sense, he didn't even need to dive. 35% catch probability. Isaac Collins is #1 in the league in jumps, leading PCA and Rafaela by nearly two feet. His jump on this ball was +11.7 feet above average, just astounding. Collins had to cover 115 feet. He makes it look incredibly easy, all due to that jump.

The WARmonger

356,852 views • 1 year ago

Daulton Varsho: Catch Probability 25%... he now has an MLB-leading 11 "non-routine" outfield outs this season (oh, and the jump was absolutely elite too)

Daulton Varsho: Catch Probability 25%... he now has an MLB-leading 11 "non-routine" outfield outs this season (oh, and the jump was absolutely elite too)

Chris Black

326,705 views • 2 years ago

Fernando Tatis Jr. had a nearly perfect catch in Yankee Stadium, and he executed it so well that it hasn't gotten much acclaim! Just 15% initial catch probability, what makes this catch so special happens before the camera is on him. +6.9 feet of jump above average, and back toward the wall. The route efficiency was elite, 97.9%. Not only are very few outfielders getting to this, most who do have to make it look spectacular.

Fernando Tatis Jr. had a nearly perfect catch in Yankee Stadium, and he executed it so well that it hasn't gotten much acclaim! Just 15% initial catch probability, what makes this catch so special happens before the camera is on him. +6.9 feet of jump above average, and back toward the wall. The route efficiency was elite, 97.9%. Not only are very few outfielders getting to this, most who do have to make it look spectacular.

The WARmonger

133,791 views • 1 year ago

Some people are tired of PCA highlights, but he just keeps making plays. Just 35% on this ball last night. The jump and speed are so good he's able to make a casual catch in front of the wall instead of slamming into it. +8 OAA and +9 DRS in 30 games.

Some people are tired of PCA highlights, but he just keeps making plays. Just 35% on this ball last night. The jump and speed are so good he's able to make a casual catch in front of the wall instead of slamming into it. +8 OAA and +9 DRS in 30 games.

The WARmonger

139,763 views • 3 months ago

Just ran into Steve Letarte and he’s like “go look at the line for the merchandise tent.” Huh? Well, he was right…check this out. 🤯

Just ran into Steve Letarte and he’s like “go look at the line for the merchandise tent.” Huh? Well, he was right…check this out. 🤯

Jeff Gluck

83,347 views • 1 month ago

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

The WARmonger

237,660 views • 1 month ago

Play Two: PCA robs Tommy Edman on a liner into the gap. Just a 10% probability, and he doesn't even have to dive! Why? An otherworldly +14.8 feet above average in his jump.

Play Two: PCA robs Tommy Edman on a liner into the gap. Just a 10% probability, and he doesn't even have to dive! Why? An otherworldly +14.8 feet above average in his jump.

The WARmonger

30,970 views • 1 year ago

Leo Carlsson didn't score here, but it shows just how well he supports the play as a center, and the work that's behind his great start. #FlyTogether

Leo Carlsson didn't score here, but it shows just how well he supports the play as a center, and the work that's behind his great start. #FlyTogether

Nathan "Grav" Murdock

41,258 views • 9 months ago

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

The WARmonger

345,170 views • 1 year ago

Catch of the Day- By the Numbers The first 5-star catch of the season for the reigning champ, Pete Crow-Armstrong! PCA did what he does best, making a 5% probability play look much easier than it was. 69 feet in 3.9 seconds with a smooth sliding grab.

Catch of the Day- By the Numbers The first 5-star catch of the season for the reigning champ, Pete Crow-Armstrong! PCA did what he does best, making a 5% probability play look much easier than it was. 69 feet in 3.9 seconds with a smooth sliding grab.

The WARmonger

112,677 views • 4 months ago

This is just such a great play by Barkov you literally just look at what he did and you say Jesus Christ

This is just such a great play by Barkov you literally just look at what he did and you say Jesus Christ

Rob Gucci

331,605 views • 1 year ago

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

The WARmonger

359,979 views • 4 months ago

There is just no way he got that far Into the water. Not like he was running very fast. We used to jump off waterfalls with some serious speed and would get maybe 20 feet away from the falls... I don't buy it

There is just no way he got that far Into the water. Not like he was running very fast. We used to jump off waterfalls with some serious speed and would get maybe 20 feet away from the falls... I don't buy it

Rick D

39,772 views • 3 months ago

When Art Briles took the HC job at Houston, he brought the offense he developed at Stephenville HS…👀 Take a look at this under-center Dart scheme where they fake the Wingback Dart and the QB keeps on what looks like a Speed Option Could very well be a dive read as well

When Art Briles took the HC job at Houston, he brought the offense he developed at Stephenville HS…👀 Take a look at this under-center Dart scheme where they fake the Wingback Dart and the QB keeps on what looks like a Speed Option Could very well be a dive read as well

AJ Forbes

128,512 views • 2 months ago

🚨 5-Star Alert 🚨 We have one, folks. Kyle Isbel in St. Louis. 15% catch probability. +6.8 feet of jump above average, positioned well into LF. He got up to 26.4 ft/sec in short time, full extension on the catch! Full field view is a must (1st comment, full-screen it)

🚨 5-Star Alert 🚨 We have one, folks. Kyle Isbel in St. Louis. 15% catch probability. +6.8 feet of jump above average, positioned well into LF. He got up to 26.4 ft/sec in short time, full extension on the catch! Full field view is a must (1st comment, full-screen it)

The WARmonger

166,614 views • 1 year ago