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The WARmonger

@TheWARmonger_ • 24,672 subscribers

Baseball history and modern stats. Great players and important numbers. Defensive metrics and crazy splits. SABR member, published sports research.

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Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

237,660 views

Enjoyed some jokes about PCA not catching this ball yesterday. 1% out probability on this ball from Statcast, rounded up to 5%.

Enjoyed some jokes about PCA not catching this ball yesterday. 1% out probability on this ball from Statcast, rounded up to 5%.

163,168 views

Julio Rodríguez got his first five-star "catch" of the season yesterday on this 15% ball. +.85 OAA, just not in the usual way...

Julio Rodríguez got his first five-star "catch" of the season yesterday on this 15% ball. +.85 OAA, just not in the usual way...

180,384 views

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

1,410,895 views

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

359,979 views

The Phillies moving Trea Turner off SS is inevitable, because it has to be (see video quoted here). Here are two more notes about Trea: 1) He STILL has 99th % speed (over 30 ft/sec in 2025) 2) Few players have ever caught a 5% ball, here's one that Trea got to fairly easily in 2016. Jump of +7.0 feet above average:

The Phillies moving Trea Turner off SS is inevitable, because it has to be (see video quoted here). Here are two more notes about Trea: 1) He STILL has 99th % speed (over 30 ft/sec in 2025) 2) Few players have ever caught a 5% ball, here's one that Trea got to fairly easily in 2016. Jump of +7.0 feet above average:

1,097,948 views

By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)

By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)

1,001,037 views

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

1,106,931 views

Guess the catch probability! I'm only giving one hint: It has two nines in it.

Guess the catch probability! I'm only giving one hint: It has two nines in it.

1,024,359 views

Ronald Acuña Jr. had a tough day in the outfield yesterday, losing 3.22 OAA. He made a couple 99% catches, but missed four opportunities at 65% or easier (65%, 75%, 90%, 95%). Not sure what the "record" is for most OAA lost in a day, but guessing this is up there. w/Min Sub (Mitchell)

Ronald Acuña Jr. had a tough day in the outfield yesterday, losing 3.22 OAA. He made a couple 99% catches, but missed four opportunities at 65% or easier (65%, 75%, 90%, 95%). Not sure what the "record" is for most OAA lost in a day, but guessing this is up there. w/Min Sub (Mitchell)

110,539 views

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

958,386 views

Adolis Garcia with a 4-star grab on this play, just a 30% catch probability. No 4 or 5-star grabs for the Phils RF in all of 2025, got one in the first series of 2026. This just would have been a routine single last year.

Adolis Garcia with a 4-star grab on this play, just a 30% catch probability. No 4 or 5-star grabs for the Phils RF in all of 2025, got one in the first series of 2026. This just would have been a routine single last year.

238,670 views

Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.

807,277 views

This ball that Wilyer Abreu dropped last night had a 20% catch probability. The vast majority of MLB outfielders don't get to it to have a chance to drop it, it quite regularly just falls for a hit.

This ball that Wilyer Abreu dropped last night had a 20% catch probability. The vast majority of MLB outfielders don't get to it to have a chance to drop it, it quite regularly just falls for a hit.

44,018 views

Lots of requests for the late night/early morning walk-off play in Los Angeles. This ball had a 95% catch probability. 0% catch actuality. Nice route, Magellan.

Lots of requests for the late night/early morning walk-off play in Los Angeles. This ball had a 95% catch probability. 0% catch actuality. Nice route, Magellan.

754,190 views

Another PCA Classic yesterday, the difficult play he makes look routine. Just 40% catch prob. What is the eye test missing? Great jump, elite speed, and he was positioned well into right-center.

Another PCA Classic yesterday, the difficult play he makes look routine. Just 40% catch prob. What is the eye test missing? Great jump, elite speed, and he was positioned well into right-center.

163,335 views

Andy Pages made the first 5-star catch of the season last night, just a 5% catch probability on this one according to Statcast! Pages covered 93 feet in 4.9 seconds with the sliding grab. Add a big homer to his +1.2 OAA and Pages is off to a great start!

Andy Pages made the first 5-star catch of the season last night, just a 5% catch probability on this one according to Statcast! Pages covered 93 feet in 4.9 seconds with the sliding grab. Add a big homer to his +1.2 OAA and Pages is off to a great start!

204,545 views

Here's the Cody Bellinger catch to end today's Yanks/Guardians game. I wasn't going to post, but I've had multiple requests... This ball had a 99% catch probability according to Statcast. That may change given proximity to the wall. In my opinion, that's pretty tough on Cody, especially given the sun. But these are just measurements, and the sun is important context that's not included in those. A couple more notes: 1) The jump. -23.1 feet is really low, easily the weakest jump for an outfielder today. Only 9.1 feet in total for a ball that landed 66 feet away from where he started. 2) In the first comment I've shared the video from above home, you can see how far he went in the wrong direction at first. 3) This IS a really good recovery to make the grab, especially since he's barreling toward a wall in a road park he hasn't played in very much. 4) Excellent athletic finish, no issue with anybody considering this a really good catch to wrap up a win!

Here's the Cody Bellinger catch to end today's Yanks/Guardians game. I wasn't going to post, but I've had multiple requests... This ball had a 99% catch probability according to Statcast. That may change given proximity to the wall. In my opinion, that's pretty tough on Cody, especially given the sun. But these are just measurements, and the sun is important context that's not included in those. A couple more notes: 1) The jump. -23.1 feet is really low, easily the weakest jump for an outfielder today. Only 9.1 feet in total for a ball that landed 66 feet away from where he started. 2) In the first comment I've shared the video from above home, you can see how far he went in the wrong direction at first. 3) This IS a really good recovery to make the grab, especially since he's barreling toward a wall in a road park he hasn't played in very much. 4) Excellent athletic finish, no issue with anybody considering this a really good catch to wrap up a win!

708,971 views

Some people are tired of PCA highlights, but he just keeps making plays. Just 35% on this ball last night. The jump and speed are so good he's able to make a casual catch in front of the wall instead of slamming into it. +8 OAA and +9 DRS in 30 games.

Some people are tired of PCA highlights, but he just keeps making plays. Just 35% on this ball last night. The jump and speed are so good he's able to make a casual catch in front of the wall instead of slamming into it. +8 OAA and +9 DRS in 30 games.

139,763 views

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Throwback catch! Kevin Kiermaier (9/15/2017) Simply one of the best catches of all-time. 1% catch probability on this ball (rounded up to 5%). Covered 107 feet to rob JBJ, another CF wizard:
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Throwback catch! Kevin Kiermaier (9/15/2017) Simply one of the best catches of all-time. 1% catch probability on this ball (rounded up to 5%). Covered 107 feet to rob JBJ, another CF wizard:

The WARmonger

155,358 views • 1 month ago

Cruz Missile! Hardest hit ball ever recorded! (Statcast Era) 122.9 MPH off the bat. 432 feet.
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Cruz Missile! Hardest hit ball ever recorded! (Statcast Era) 122.9 MPH off the bat. 432 feet.

The WARmonger

777,267 views • 1 year ago

Ceddanne Rafaela is one of few outfielders who can catch a 5% probability ball without diving. Such an amazing jump and pursuit it barely draws a reaction from the announcers. It's measurably one of the toughest catches we'll see this year. The vast majority of outfielders aren't getting close to this one, and the few who do are fortunate to catch it on the dive:
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Ceddanne Rafaela is one of few outfielders who can catch a 5% probability ball without diving. Such an amazing jump and pursuit it barely draws a reaction from the announcers. It's measurably one of the toughest catches we'll see this year. The vast majority of outfielders aren't getting close to this one, and the few who do are fortunate to catch it on the dive:

The WARmonger

166,780 views • 3 months ago

This ball had a 99% catch probability for the CF and a 90% catch probability for the RF:
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This ball had a 99% catch probability for the CF and a 90% catch probability for the RF:

The WARmonger

619,733 views • 1 year ago

Trent Grisham with the unbelievable amazing diving catch that had a 99% catch probability! Really. Jump: -14.3 (😬) Route Efficiency: 85.9% (47/50 so far today) Good finish, though!
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Trent Grisham with the unbelievable amazing diving catch that had a 99% catch probability! Really. Jump: -14.3 (😬) Route Efficiency: 85.9% (47/50 so far today) Good finish, though!

The WARmonger

206,298 views • 1 year ago

A throwback gem! Kevin Kiermaier robs Jackie Bradley Jr. (2017) 5% catch probability Kiermaier covered 104 feet, up to 30.4 ft/sec Full extension on the catch
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A throwback gem! Kevin Kiermaier robs Jackie Bradley Jr. (2017) 5% catch probability Kiermaier covered 104 feet, up to 30.4 ft/sec Full extension on the catch

The WARmonger

155,778 views • 1 year ago

This new swing tool from MLB on Baseball Savant is so freaking cool! Fascinating to see how hitters can find success with different swings, and it will also end so many debates about what they are actually doing.
0:30
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This new swing tool from MLB on Baseball Savant is so freaking cool! Fascinating to see how hitters can find success with different swings, and it will also end so many debates about what they are actually doing.

The WARmonger

102,647 views • 1 year ago

Dillon Dingler set the new season standard today for the fastest throw on a catcher assist! An 88.1 MPH dart out of one knee stance to nail Bobby Witt Jr.!
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Dillon Dingler set the new season standard today for the fastest throw on a catcher assist! An 88.1 MPH dart out of one knee stance to nail Bobby Witt Jr.!

The WARmonger

104,860 views • 1 year ago

Corbin Carroll led MLB in ideal attack angle with 68.4% in 2025. That's the % of swings with an attack angle between 5 and 20 degrees (optimal for line drives and hard contact). Not to be confused with launch angle, which is the angle the ball takes off the bat. The whole "round ball, round bat" concept makes that tougher to control. Data and visuals from Baseball Savant/MLB:
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Corbin Carroll led MLB in ideal attack angle with 68.4% in 2025. That's the % of swings with an attack angle between 5 and 20 degrees (optimal for line drives and hard contact). Not to be confused with launch angle, which is the angle the ball takes off the bat. The whole "round ball, round bat" concept makes that tougher to control. Data and visuals from Baseball Savant/MLB:

The WARmonger

60,138 views • 8 months ago

Of 432 players who had 200+ swings in 2025, the lowest average attack angle belonged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1 degree.
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Of 432 players who had 200+ swings in 2025, the lowest average attack angle belonged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1 degree.

The WARmonger

38,455 views • 8 months ago

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