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Apple has 1000+ engineers on Siri. Google has thousands on Voice. Both hit 10% zero-edit accuracy. Meanwhile, 18 people at Wispr built something with 85% zero edit rate. >> $81M total funding >> 70% customer retention rate >>250+ Fortune 500 companies use it

23,591 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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we just raised another $25M after 10x'ing our ARR in 5 months. the crazy part is this almost never happened. 17 years ago, I watched Iron Man as a 10-year-old kid in Delhi. that night, I pulled my first all-nighter teaching myself to code. not because I wanted to build apps or make money. because I wanted to build Jarvis. my parents gave me 1 hour of screen time per day. so I coded in secret, sleeping every alternate night through middle school and high school. built 50+ apps. got a cease and desist from Google at age 12. all for this one obsession: making computers understand us like humans do. fast forward to today: - we've raised $81M total to build the voice operating system - growing revenue 40% month-over-month this year - 70% user retention after one year (unheard of in consumer) - teams at 270 of the Fortune 500 use Wispr Flow daily our Series A2 was led by Hans Tung at Notable Capital (who was an early investor in five companies that made it to $100B valuation like Slack, Tiktok, and Airbnb). we also brought on Steven Bartlett as an investor and partner. but here's what matters more than the money: we cracked voice input. not transcription - actual understanding. our users hit "send" in under 0.5 seconds without checking. they trust it blindly. that's never existed before. in a recent benchmark, Wispr came out as 3-4x more accurate than OpenAI, ElevenLabs, and Siri. and we're just getting started. voice input was step one. now we're building the assistant that actually does things for you. to my co-founder Sahaj Garg - there's no one else I'd rather build Jarvis with than my college roommate and closest friend. to our team pulling all-nighters and shipping magic - you're the reason that 10-year-old kid's dream is becoming real. we're hiring cracked engineers and growth marketers who want to build the future of human-computer interaction. the keyboard had a good 150-year run. time to build what comes next. PS: like, retweet, and bookmark to get wispr flow for free for 3 months ❤️ — Written with Wispr Flow

Tanay Kothari

904,253 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Google just STOLE Apple away from OpenAI... And it might decide who wins the AI race. Apple announced a multi-year $1 billion deal with Google to power the next generation of Siri using Gemini AI. Not ChatGPT. Gemini. This is the same Apple that 18 months ago announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into iPhones. Everyone thought that meant OpenAI won. Turns out it was an audition. And OpenAI failed. Here's why: June 2024: Apple announces OpenAI partnership. Sam Altman tweets: "very happy to be partnering with apple." Media declares OpenAI the winner of the AI race. December 2025: Sam Altman issues "code red" at OpenAI. Tells everyone to pause everything and ship ChatGPT 5.2 faster. Why the panic? Google released Gemini 3 and it was actually good. January 2026: Apple picks Google. ChatGPT stays as an "optional feature" for complicated queries. But Gemini becomes the DEFAULT intelligence layer for 2 billion Apple devices. The financial reality: Apple pays OpenAI $0 But Apple pays Google $1 BILLION per year That's a verdict. The excuse OpenAI gave for why they did it for free was "exposure to millions of iPhone users." Which basically means "we couldn't negotiate worth shit." Meanwhile Google walked away with both the money AND the distribution. Why Google won: Infrastructure ownership. OpenAI runs on Microsoft's Azure cloud. That creates a dependency chain: Apple → OpenAI → Microsoft. 3 companies. 3 points of failure. Google owns its entire stack. One relationship. Zero middlemen. Apple's statement said Google's technology provides "the most capable foundation." Not "most innovative." Not "best partner." Most CAPABLE. In other words, OpenAI's tech couldn't handle the scale. The Alphabet boost: Google's stock hit $4 trillion market cap after the announcement. Up 65% in 2024 on AI momentum alone. This deal validates Google's pivot from "search company" to "AI infrastructure company." Now they power Samsung's Galaxy AI AND Apple's Siri. Billions of mobile devices running on Gemini. OpenAI's big problem here: Still no profit. Ever. Anthropic is stealing enterprise customers. DeepSeek launched a price war forcing ChatGPT to cut prices. GPT-5 was overhyped and underwhelming. Circular financing deals are getting scrutinized. And now Apple just downgraded them from partner to backup option. That "code red" in December? Too little, too late. The reality everyone's missing: This isn't about chatbot quality. It's about who owns the infrastructure to power billions of devices. Google proved it with Samsung. Now Apple. OpenAI proved it can build a viral product but can't scale it profitably. Very different skill sets. Elon called it "unreasonable concentration of power for Google." He's right. But that's exactly why Apple chose them. Apple doesn't want a startup partner. They want a utility provider. Google is now the default AI for Android AND iOS. OpenAI is relegated to opt-in queries for people who specifically request ChatGPT. That's the difference between infrastructure and feature. The next 12 months: Apple launches Gemini-powered Siri in spring 2026. If it works, every iPhone user defaults to Google's AI. ChatGPT becomes the thing people use when Siri can't answer. The backup plan. My takeaway for entrepreneurs watching this: Distribution beats innovation. Google didn't necessarily build a better chatbot. They built better infrastructure and negotiated better terms. OpenAI won the hype race. Google won the business war. What do you think can save OpenAI now?

Ricardo

50,663 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

WOW. 😳 Apple just quietly won the 3D maps war at WWDC. Gaussian Splatting is coming to Apple Maps Flyover this fall. Apple Maps Flyover covers 300+ cities. Until yesterday, every single one was built on standard drone photogrammetry. The technology captures photos from the air and reconstructs 3D geometry from them. Gaussian Splatting does not reconstruct geometry. It represents the scene as millions of tiny 3D ellipsoids, each one carrying its own color and opacity information based on how light actually behaves in that location. The output is not a mesh model. It is a field of light. When you move through it, it does not crumble at the edges. The detail holds because it was never geometry to begin with. Apple has been hiring for this for years. Their SHARP model, published in research last year, generates photorealistic 3D scenes from a single image in under a second. Google has more sensor data than anyone. More Street View cars, more satellites, more capture history. On navigation accuracy and geodata depth, Google Maps is still ahead by most measures. But fidelity in 3D city rendering is a different competition, and Apple just set a bar in that. Most people will experience this in the fall without knowing the name of the technology. They will open Flyover, look at a city they know, and notice it looks different. Real, not rendered. That is the moment Gaussian Splatting stops being a research term and becomes something a billion people use. Bookmark this. It will look prescient by October.

Shruti

19,784 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon just said a financial crisis is coming. Bond yields just hit historic levels in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan simultaneously. The last time this happened was right before the 2008 financial crisis. And Dimon just confirmed that $5 to $6 TRILLION in leveraged loans are sitting out there right now and the companies holding that debt are going to have a very hard time refinancing at current rates. The equity values of those companies would be "considerably less" and a lot of those borrowers didn't hedge for higher rates. Then he said he personally would NOT buy credit spreads at these levels. The CEO of the largest bank in America just told you he thinks corporate debt is mispriced and he would not touch it with his own money. Then the interviewer asked about AI and everyone forgot he said it. Jamie Dimon warns about a recession every single year but this is the first year where the numbers are actually proving him RIGHT: 3 days ago the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.2%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year is sitting at 4.62%. The US government has $31 trillion in public debt and the average interest rate on that debt is 3.5%. They cannot refinance a single dollar of it at a lower rate than what they are currently paying. And they have $9.7 trillion in securities maturing THIS YEAR that needs to be rolled over. Meanwhile the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was just sworn in on Friday. Traders are now betting there will be ZERO rate cuts for the rest of 2026 and the probability of a rate HIKE is rising. The Iran war has pushed oil to four-year highs. Inflation reaccelerated in April to the highest annual rate in three years. And private credit defaults just hit a record high with a 9.2% default rate in their US private credit portfolio. Dimon laid out exactly how this plays out: He said sentiment can flip overnight and specifically named the crashes of 1973, 1982, 1994, and 2000 and said the setup before each one looked exactly like this. Everyone confident, everyone buying, liquidity everywhere. Then something shifts and people want cash. And when people want cash they sell risky assets at precisely the wrong time. Liquidity disappears at the exact moment everyone needs it. And he also told you where the money is going: JPMorgan had 35,000 employees in New York when he took over. Now it has 26,000. Texas went from 12,000 to 33,000. He said in the 1970s, New York had 120 Fortune 500 companies. 60 of them left in a single decade because of taxes and crime. And when the interviewer asked about the new NYC mayor raising taxes on the wealthy, Dimon basically told him to his face that the erosion has already started. The capital is already leaving. So let's put this together: - Bond yields at 19-year highs - $9.7 trillion in government debt to refinance this year - $5-6 trillion in leveraged corporate loans that cannot refinance at these rates - Private credit defaults at record levels - Inflation reaccelerating - No rate cuts coming - A Fed chairman who hasn't even settled into the chair yet - The CEO of America's biggest bank saying he would not buy corporate debt at current prices - And the same CEO quietly moving his bank out of New York Every single one of these signals was present before the crashes Dimon himself named.

Ricardo

187,418 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨A 25 YEAR OLD BUILT THE FASTEST GROWING SOFTWARE COMPANY IN HISTORY.. WITH ZERO MARKETING SPEND.. AND SPACEX JUST OFFERED $60 BILLION TO BUY IT.. His name is Michael Truell.. He started coding at 11.. Interned at Google at 18.. Dropped out of MIT to start a company that built AI tools for mechanical engineering.. That company failed.. So he pivoted.. And built Cursor.. An AI-powered code editor that writes software for you.. Here's how fast it grew.. $100 million in annual revenue in 12 months.. Fastest in SaaS history.. Broke every record ever set by Slack, Zoom, and Wiz.. $500 million by month 21.. $1 billion by November 2025.. $2 billion by February 2026.. Projected to hit $6 billion by end of year.. Zero marketing spend.. Not a single dollar.. Pure word of mouth from developers who couldn't stop talking about it.. Over 1 billion lines of code accepted per day.. Used by 70% of Fortune 1000 companies.. Every single one of Nvidia's 40,000 engineers uses it.. Coinbase hit 100% adoption among their developers.. And he did this with a team of four MIT co-founders.. One of them was a three-time International Math Olympiad competitor from Pakistan.. Another was a college squash captain with zero startup experience who built the entire product strategy.. They spent zero on sales.. Zero on ads.. Zero on growth hacking.. The product sold itself.. But here's where the story takes a turn nobody expected.. Even at $50 billion valuation.. Even generating billions in revenue.. They hit a wall.. Not a market wall.. A physics wall.. They couldn't get enough GPUs to train their next AI model.. The physical chips didn't exist in sufficient quantities for them to buy.. Money couldn't solve the problem.. Enter Elon Musk.. On April 21.. SpaceX announced a deal to potentially acquire Cursor for $60 billion.. The largest acquisition option in tech history.. The structure is insane.. SpaceX gives Cursor immediate access to Colossus.. xAI's supercomputer equivalent to one million Nvidia H100 GPUs.. For nine months of joint development.. At the end.. SpaceX can buy the company for $60 billion.. If they don't buy it.. They owe Cursor a $10 billion breakup fee.. The largest breakup fee in corporate history.. Think about what that means for Cursor.. Either they get acquired for $60 billion.. Or they walk away with $10 billion in cash and nine months of free training on the most powerful supercomputer on earth.. There is no losing scenario.. And here's why Musk wants it.. SpaceX is preparing for an IPO at $1.75 trillion.. The biggest IPO ever.. But aerospace alone can't justify that number.. By merging xAI into SpaceX.. And now acquiring Cursor.. Musk transforms SpaceX from a rocket company into an AI empire that owns the compute, the models, and the developer tools.. Cursor is the missing piece.. The application layer that puts xAI's models into the daily workflow of every Fortune 500 engineering team.. Oh and one more thing.. In 2022.. FTX's trading firm Alameda Research made a seed investment in Cursor.. During the FTX bankruptcy.. Liquidators sold that stake for $200,000.. That stake is now worth approximately $3 billion.. Sam Bankman-Fried called it the worst liquidation decision in venture capital history.. From a prison cell.. A failed mechanical engineering startup.. Pivoted by four kids from MIT.. Zero marketing.. Zero sales team.. Built the fastest growing software company in history.. And now SpaceX is writing a $60 billion check for it.. This is the most insane founder story in Silicon Valley history.. And most people haven't even heard of Michael Truell.

Evan Luthra

988,417 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

X is known for noise. I’m not here for noise. I keep seeing people trying to find faults where there are none. Traders arguing, going back and forth every year. Honestly, it’s getting old. Let’s do something real. I am GT, Global Trader, and this is an open challenge to any trader on the continent of Africa, especially in Ghana and Nigeria. If you believe you are a better trader than GT, step up. Here’s the challenge: We both start with a $10,000 account. Everything will be fully transparent and streamed live here on X, so everyone can see every trade. The goal: attempt to turn $10,000 into $1,000,000 before the end of March. We may not hit $1M and that’s fine. But by the end of the month, we will know: • Who took better trades • Who managed losses better • Who made more profit • Who truly has the edge in the market The trader with the highest profit by the end of March wins. And here’s the stake: $100,000. If I lose, I pay you $100,000. If you lose, you pay me $100,000. If $100,000 isn’t enough for you, we can negotiate and raise the stake. I’m not here for arguments. I’m not here for narratives. I’m here for results. So tag your mentors. Tag your idols. Tag anyone who believes they are better than Global Trader. This opportunity is open today and tomorrow only. If someone steps up and accepts the challenge, we start immediately. Let the market decide who the best trader in Africa truly is. GT.

Global Trader ( RealGT )

113,920 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Here's more analysis on the Apple and Google deal to make a new kind of Siri, after I had a cup of coffee. This is what OpenAI is doing: they're making a variety of new products and going after Apple. Apple didn't want to give OpenAI any more data to help a potential new competitor. The real problem for this OpenAI effort is that we're about to move to glasses. People don't believe me that we're about to move to glasses, but you should, because I just got back from CES and there was a ton of glasses there. For OpenAI to really get somewhere, they need to add a camera to an earphone. While I don't see that in this latest report, I won't be shocked to see a camera show up somewhere eventually. It is cameras that add understanding of the real world, which can lead to many new features that Apple's current AirPods Pro can't match. I believe Apple is developing such a product to go with their glasses, which makes a lot of sense. Also, Google's AI models are better at multimodality; this means they can use cameras in a much better way than even OpenAI's models can. This is why in Silicon Valley robotics companies, a lot of them use Google Gemini: because robots need multimodality. Apple's glasses, which are expected in 2027, have some significant advantages over the others. First, they have eye sensors in them, so it knows where the user is looking. It also can tell what the user is touching, holding, or gesturing towards. This new capability will give Siri a significant parlor trick: it will let Siri answer questions that no other search engine has been able to answer before. But the real reason I'm still bullish on Apple's glasses isn't technology—it's content. Apple has NBA rights and Formula One (among others) and a really great studio system, which has produced one of the biggest hits of the last six months. Pluribus. Apple also, because of its privacy stance, has a significant lead in consumer trust. Because of its retail stores, it also has a significant lead in the ability to: 1. Show people glasses 2. Get them fit properly 3. Get people trained On Saturday, I went to the main Apple store in Cupertino and watched one of the classes that they teach every few hours in an Apple store. The store was packed with people watching the class on a huge screen in the middle of the store. Apple has dramatically changed retail because of its stores, which gives it the most trusted brand in the business and gives it distribution to most of the world's richest people. While OpenAI has almost a billion users, it is unclear whether those users will switch ecosystems from Apple to OpenAI. Even if OpenAI's AI and devices can do a few more things, I'm not so sure anybody's going to care when Apple has very capable headphones that match up with their iPhones and has the world's richest people addicted to the Apple ecosystem (me included). Here is one of the secret Chinese suites at CES, which makes a series of glasses to sell to other brands. This gives you a sense of how fast the glasses world is moving. AI needs to not just tell you what it's seeing, but it needs to show you things to really make the solution complete. Also, Apple usually picks a much better design than anyone else. Because it's such a luxury brand, it can charge more than anybody else and be more profitable. I don't see anyone else being able to put together the whole solution the way Apple can. Therefore, I am still very bullish on Apple making a dramatic announcement about glasses sometime in the next 24 months. At CES, though, it's clear that many manufacturers will try. XREAL 👓 just got $100 million of funding to continue its glasses development, and officials of the company told me it will release its Android XR based glasses later this year. Short version: AI is coming to wearables in a big way, and Apple will do what it always does: come in late to the market and redefine it when it enters. It still has all the pieces to put together the puzzle, even though it doesn't have its own LLM so had to do a deal with Google for that. Yeah, others will be earlier to the market, and will win some buyers because of that, but buyers like me know that and will be happy to put down our other ones to buy Apple because of its advantages. With one big caveat: Apple has to deliver an amazing pair of glasses, and maybe a headphone with a camera, to keep the competition from taking its lunch. Also, behind the scenes there is a big patent battle brewing. Apple has quite a few, but I talked with Ann Greenberg at CES, who started Gracenote. She says she has several patents that will enable a large company to force others to license their technology and that she's already in final stages of selling those patents to a big company. All the big companies have patent portfolios they can use against each other, and particularly smaller, newer, competitors. Microsoft alone has dozens of patents it bought to start off its Hololens efforts, which it gave up on, but Microsoft still has almost 1,000 lawyers who would love to go after other companies for licensing deals. Plus, Google-funded Magic Leap has about 1,000 patents, so it'll be interesting to see if anyone buys the remnants of that company. The question is: can anyone disrupt Apple? Especially OpenAI?

Robert Scoble

275,056 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Microsoft just banned its own engineers from using AI. The tool was literally costing MORE than the humans it was supposed to replace. They lied to you about AI adoption and now the whole narrative is blowing up: Microsoft gave thousands of engineers access to Claude Code six months ago and encouraged them to use it. Engineers loved it and adoption exploded. But then the invoices arrived. Token-based pricing means every query, every code review, every debugging session costs money. At scale across 100,000 engineers, the numbers became so large that Microsoft issued an internal order to cancel nearly all Claude Code licenses by end of June and force everyone onto their own cheaper tool instead. The company that invested $5 billion in Anthropic just told its own people to stop using Anthropic's product because it costs too much. Uber's story is even worse... Their CTO Praveen Neppalli Naga told The Information that the budget he planned for the full year was "blown away already" by April. Uber had rolled out Claude Code in December 2025. By March, 84% of their 5,000 engineers were using it with 70% of all committed code coming from AI systems. Heavy users were burning $500 to $2,000 per month each. Naga himself spent $1,200 in a single two-hour demo session. The company had even built internal leaderboards ranking engineers by how much AI they used. They literally gamified the spending and then ran out of money. Now look at what Nvidia's own VP of applied deep learning Bryan Catanzaro said to Axios last month. Direct quote: "For my team, the cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees." This is a VP at the company that SELLS the chips saying that using AI is more expensive than paying humans. Think about what this means for the entire AI narrative. Every CEO on every earnings call for the past two years has said the same thing: AI will make us more efficient, reduce headcount, and cut costs. The stock market rewarded every company that said it. Fired workers, stock goes up. Announced AI adoption, stock goes up. But the actual companies deploying AI at scale are discovering the math doesn't work. The MORE employees use AI, the HIGHER the bill. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 24x increase in token consumption by 2030 as companies adopt AI agents. Gartner just published a report showing that even though individual token prices will drop 90% by 2030, total enterprise AI costs will go UP because agents consume exponentially more tokens per task than basic tools. Meta built an internal dashboard called "Claudeonomics" to track which employees use the most AI. Amazon started pushing engineers to "tokenmaxx," their internal term for consuming as many AI tokens as possible. Both companies are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure this year alone. And Microsoft, the company that bet its entire future on AI, just told 100,000 engineers to stop using the tool they liked best because the per-token bills got out of control. The companies building AI are telling investors it saves money. The companies using AI are finding out it costs more than the humans it was supposed to replace. And even the company that makes the chips just admitted it through its own VP. This is the gap nobody on Wall Street is pricing in. $725 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year across Big Tech. And the first companies to actually deploy these tools at scale are already pulling back because the economics don't work. What do you think?

Ricardo

2,958,193 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Google just acquired an Israeli Trojan horse to STEAL clients from AWS and Microsoft. $32 billion. All cash. For a cybersecurity startup called Wiz. It’s the largest acquisition in Google’s history. But nobody’s talking about what they ACTUALLY bought... Here’s why this is way bigger than you think: Wiz protects over half the Fortune 100. Their clients run on AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle. The platform scans every workload, every vulnerability, every misconfiguration across ALL of those clouds. Meaning Wiz has a god-level view of how the world's biggest companies use their competitors' infrastructure. And Google just bought that view for $32 billion. Now think about what Google Cloud's biggest problem has been for YEARS... They're stuck in third place. 13% market share. AWS has 30%. Azure has 20%. Google has been hemorrhaging money trying to close that gap and nothing has worked. Wiz changes that equation overnight. Because Wiz doesn't just protect cloud environments. It MAPS them. It knows which companies are running what workloads, where their vulnerabilities are, and where they're overpaying. Google now has a real-time blueprint of its competitors' biggest customers. And it gets crazier: The 4 founders of Wiz previously built Adallom, a cloud security startup that Microsoft acquired for $320 million in 2015. After that acquisition, those same founders ran Microsoft's entire Azure Cloud Security Group. They literally built the security infrastructure that Azure runs on today. Then they left. Started Wiz. Built a product that works across every cloud. Got 45% of the Fortune 100 as customers. Most of those customers are on AWS and Azure. And now they just handed ALL of that to Google. Google promised Wiz will remain "multi-cloud" and continue working with AWS, Azure, and Oracle. That's the public story. But here's the game theory every enterprise CTO is thinking about right now: If you're running sensitive workloads on AWS or Azure and your security layer is now owned by your competitor, how comfortable are you? Google doesn't need to do anything shady. The PERCEPTION alone is enough to start shifting enterprise decisions. And that's worth way more than $32 billion. But there's another layer... Wiz went from $0 to $100 million in revenue in 18 months. Fastest software company in history to hit that mark. By 2025, they were at $750 million. The founders said no to Google's first offer of $23 billion in 2024 because they wanted to IPO. 9 months later, they said yes to $32 billion. What changed? The IPO market collapsed. Tech IPOs dried up. Valuations got slashed. Wiz's leadership looked at the math and realized $32 billion in guaranteed cash beats an uncertain public offering in a hostile market. Google paid a 39% premium over the rejected offer. A multiple of 45-65x revenue. For a company founded 5 years ago by 4 guys who met in Israeli military intelligence. This is the BIGGEST tech acquisition of an Israeli-founded company ever. Bigger than Intel buying Mobileye for $15.3 billion. Bigger than anything in Israeli tech history. And Google is betting it will be worth every penny. Because the cloud war isn't about compute anymore. It's about TRUST. And the company that controls the security layer controls where enterprises put their most sensitive data. Google just bought the keys to every major cloud customer on the planet. The question is whether AWS and Microsoft let them keep using those keys. What do you think?

Ricardo

188,848 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The two companies that triggered the 2008 financial crisis just hit 2008-level risk AGAIN. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now running interest-rate risk on their $5 trillion mortgage portfolio at levels they haven't held since the months before the crash: Their "duration gap," the standard measure of how exposed their assets are to interest rate moves, has widened from negligible twelve months ago to roughly one full year today. A half-percentage point rate increase would now wipe $1.2 billion from Fannie's portfolio and $1.6 billion from Freddie's. 12 months earlier, the same rate move would have caused barely any damage. In plain English, the two companies that backstop roughly 70% of American mortgages just made themselves catastrophically vulnerable to the exact thing the Federal Reserve might do next year. And this did not happen by accident... Over the past twelve months they have added $135 billion to their retained mortgage portfolios. They have moved capital out of short-dated investments and into long-dated mortgage-backed securities. They have left the rate exposure unhedged on purpose, because hedging would push mortgage rates higher and the administration wants mortgage rates lower. The same pattern that broke them in 2008 is being REBUILT for political reasons in 2026. And then comes the part that makes this truly insane: While the GSEs were quietly leveraging up, the Federal Housing Finance Agency authorized them to start accepting Bitcoin as collateral for mortgage applications. So they are now stacking crypto exposure on top of leveraged interest rate exposure on top of $5 trillion in mortgage debt. The same regulators who once admitted publicly that these companies were too risky to operate without government oversight are now letting them take on the kind of stacked risk that nobody at any commercial bank would be allowed to touch. Here's how we got here: In January, Trump made a televised announcement directing Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion in additional mortgage-backed securities. The press treated it as a bold housing affordability move. But what it actually did was authorize the GSEs to use up their remaining portfolio headroom and tilt those portfolios deeper into long-duration assets. Six months later, Bloomberg now has the data showing what that "bold move" actually built... Richard Estabrook, a strategist at Oppenheimer, told Bloomberg that in the early years after the 2008 bailout, "the GSEs were in a sort of lockdown with strong risk oversight, maybe even excessively so." The guardrails put up after the last crisis have been quietly dismantled. The companies are now operating with less constraint than at any point since the conservatorship began. Every commercial property loan, every mortgage REIT in a portfolio, every multifamily fund, and every bank that holds these mortgage-backed securities is now sitting downstream of an interest rate bet that has no hedge. If the Fed has to raise rates again, or if the bond market revolts against the $39 trillion national debt, the same dominoes start falling that fell in 2008. The difference this time is that we built the dominoes back deliberately, in broad daylight, while telling the public it was housing policy. The 2008 crisis was caused in part by Fannie and Freddie running the same playbook: Congress wrote a thousand pages of legislation to prevent it from happening again, and the conservatorship was supposed to be the structural fix. 18 years later, that fix has been walked back, the leverage has been rebuilt, and regulators are stacking crypto on top of the same balance sheet that broke last time. This should be on every front page in the world.

Ricardo

14,753 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

1996. Steve Jobs is asked on television what went wrong at Apple. He hasn't worked there in over a decade. Within a year, Apple will buy his company NeXT and bring him back. Within 18 months, he'll be running the place. He doesn't know that yet. Nobody does. At this point, he's running NeXT, a small software company, and Pixar, which just released Toy Story. Apple is falling apart. The stock is collapsing. The company has lost over a billion dollars. Its market share has dropped from 18% to around 4%. WIRED will put Apple's logo on its cover, wrapped in barbed wire, with the word "Pray." The interviewer asks Jobs what happened. His answer is one paragraph, and it's basically the entire turnaround strategy he'll execute a year later. He says when he left Apple ten years earlier, they were ten years ahead of everybody else. It took Microsoft a full decade to copy what Apple had built. But Apple stopped. "Even though it invested cumulatively billions in R&D, the output has not been there, and people have caught up with it." He says Apple's advantage over Microsoft has eroded. And then this: "The way out is not to slash and burn. It's to innovate. That's how Apple got to its glory, and I think that's how Apple could return to it." When Apple bought NeXT in December 1996 and brought Jobs back as an advisor, things got worse before they got better. By September 1997, Apple was about 90 days from running out of money. The board made Jobs the interim CEO. He cut 70% of the product line, but not to save money. He cut it so the remaining 30% could be great. He launched Think Different. He built the iMac. Then the iPod. Then iTunes. Then the iPhone. Then the iPad. Every single one of those products was the "innovate, don't slash and burn" philosophy from this interview, applied over and over for 14 years. He also says something in this interview that stands out. He says the most exciting thing in software is the internet, and the reason is "no one owns it. It's a free-for-all. It's much like the early days of the personal computer." He says if any one company gets a dominant position, "the rate of innovation is going to drop precipitously." He's talking about Microsoft. But he could be talking about 2026. Apple is worth about $3.7 trillion today. When this interview was filmed, Apple was worth about $3 billion and falling fast. Jobs walked back into Apple nine months later with no title, no authority, and the same diagnosis he gave on camera in this clip. Video: Steve Jobs Television Interview, 1996. Original broadcast footage.

Anish Moonka

344,138 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten