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APPLE RESEARCH SCIENTIST JUST SHOWED HOW 4 MAC STUDIOS RUN A TRILLION PARAMETER MODEL LOCALLY ZERO COSTS 13:18 she shows the main thing - connect 4 Mac Studios and you get 1TB of shared memory - exactly enough to run a trillion parameter model right on your desk Apple's...

47,399 просмотров • 21 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Karpathy told Dwarkesh that a 1 billion parameter model, trained on clean data, could hit the intelligence of today's 1.8 trillion parameter frontier. That is a 1,800x compression claim. The math behind it is more defensible than it sounds. When researchers at frontier labs look at random samples from their training corpus, they see stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, forum spam, autogenerated gibberish. Not Wikipedia. Not the Wall Street Journal. The actual pretraining dataset is mostly noise, and the model is burning parameters to vaguely remember all of it. One estimate pegs Llama 3's information compression at 0.07 bits per token. Well-structured English carries around 1.5 bits per token of real information. The trillion-parameter model is holding a roughly 5% resolution image of the internet it trained on. So when a lab ships a 1.8 trillion parameter model, the overwhelming majority of those weights are handling rough memorization. They are compression overhead for a noisy training set, taking up capacity that could be doing reasoning instead. Karpathy's proposal is to separate the two. Build a cognitive core: a small model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization. Pair it with external memory the model queries when it needs a fact. A 1 billion parameter reasoner plus retrieval beats a 1.8 trillion parameter model trying to do both. The data already supports this direction. GPT-4o runs at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5 level performance fell 280x between 2022 and 2024, driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The trend line is pointing where Karpathy says it should. The real implication for anyone tracking the AI trade: data quality is the actual constraint. The companies winning the next phase will be the ones who figured out what to train on, and what to throw away.

Aakash Gupta

507,835 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Andrej Karpathy just made one of the most interesting arguments about AI model design that most people are completely missing. His take is that frontier AI models are not too big because the technology is complex and too big because the training data is garbage. When you or I think of the internet, we picture Wall Street Journal articles, Wikipedia entries, serious writing. That is not what a pretraining dataset looks like. When researchers at frontier labs look at random documents from the actual training corpus, it is stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, spam, gibberish. One estimate puts Llama 3's information compression at just 0.07 bits per token meaning the model has only a hazy recollection of most of what it trained on. So we build trillion parameter models not because we need a trillion parameter brain but because we need a trillion-parameter compression engine to squeeze some intelligence out of a firehose of noise. Most of those parameters are doing memory work, not cognitive work. Karpathy's prediction is separate the two entirely. Build a cognitive core, a model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization and pair it with external memory that it can query when it needs facts. He thinks a cognitive core trained on high-quality data could hit genuine intelligence at around one billion parameters. For reference, today's flagship models run between 200 billion and 1.8 trillion parameters with most of that weight dedicated to remembering the internet's slop. The trend is already moving his direction. GPT-4o operates at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion-parameter GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5-level performance dropped 280-fold between 2022 and 2024 driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The real bottleneck in AI right now is not compute but rather data quality.

Milk Road AI

200,209 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Jensen Huang told a room of global investors that AI is not one industry. It is five stacked on top of each other. Most people are investing in layer four and ignoring layers one through three entirely. He called it the five-layer cake. Layer one is energy. Jensen said this is the single greatest opportunity for the energy industry in a hundred years. The first time in a century that the grid in most countries can actually attract serious capital. Nuclear, solar, wind, hydrogen, it does not matter what form. If it produces energy, it gets funded. Siemens, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi. That is why they are all doing so well right now. Layer two is chips, computers, networking, and silicon photonics. Everything that processes the intelligence. Layer three is infrastructure. Land, power, buildings, data center operations. Every single one in short supply today. Layer four is the model layer. OpenAI, Anthropic. The layer everyone talks about. Layer five is applications. Every startup applying AI to financial services, legal, healthcare, logistics, transportation. Last year alone, a hundred billion dollars of venture capital went into this layer. The single largest VC year in the history of humanity. Then he said the number that stopped me cold. We are putting one trillion dollars into this five-layer cake this year. That sounds enormous. Jensen thinks the AI industry will eventually run at twenty trillion dollars per year. We are one trillion in of a twenty trillion dollar per year ecosystem. Most people watching AI are staring at layer four. Jensen was describing layers one through five as a single compounding system where every layer feeds the one above it. The people who understand that will invest differently than the people who do not.

Ihtesham Ali

97,514 просмотров • 1 месяц назад