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THIS DEVELOPER JUST RAN A TRILLION PARAMETER MODEL ON 4 MAC STUDIOS - 10X FASTER AND 5X CHEAPER THAN CLOUD CODE 19:00 he says it out loud. "we just ran a trillion parameter model. 30 something tokens per second. wow." RDMA over Thunderbolt made the cluster 10x faster than...

79,665 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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Karpathy told Dwarkesh that a 1 billion parameter model, trained on clean data, could hit the intelligence of today's 1.8 trillion parameter frontier. That is a 1,800x compression claim. The math behind it is more defensible than it sounds. When researchers at frontier labs look at random samples from their training corpus, they see stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, forum spam, autogenerated gibberish. Not Wikipedia. Not the Wall Street Journal. The actual pretraining dataset is mostly noise, and the model is burning parameters to vaguely remember all of it. One estimate pegs Llama 3's information compression at 0.07 bits per token. Well-structured English carries around 1.5 bits per token of real information. The trillion-parameter model is holding a roughly 5% resolution image of the internet it trained on. So when a lab ships a 1.8 trillion parameter model, the overwhelming majority of those weights are handling rough memorization. They are compression overhead for a noisy training set, taking up capacity that could be doing reasoning instead. Karpathy's proposal is to separate the two. Build a cognitive core: a small model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization. Pair it with external memory the model queries when it needs a fact. A 1 billion parameter reasoner plus retrieval beats a 1.8 trillion parameter model trying to do both. The data already supports this direction. GPT-4o runs at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5 level performance fell 280x between 2022 and 2024, driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The trend line is pointing where Karpathy says it should. The real implication for anyone tracking the AI trade: data quality is the actual constraint. The companies winning the next phase will be the ones who figured out what to train on, and what to throw away.

Aakash Gupta

508,149 views • 3 months ago

Andrej Karpathy just made one of the most interesting arguments about AI model design that most people are completely missing. His take is that frontier AI models are not too big because the technology is complex and too big because the training data is garbage. When you or I think of the internet, we picture Wall Street Journal articles, Wikipedia entries, serious writing. That is not what a pretraining dataset looks like. When researchers at frontier labs look at random documents from the actual training corpus, it is stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, spam, gibberish. One estimate puts Llama 3's information compression at just 0.07 bits per token meaning the model has only a hazy recollection of most of what it trained on. So we build trillion parameter models not because we need a trillion parameter brain but because we need a trillion-parameter compression engine to squeeze some intelligence out of a firehose of noise. Most of those parameters are doing memory work, not cognitive work. Karpathy's prediction is separate the two entirely. Build a cognitive core, a model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization and pair it with external memory that it can query when it needs facts. He thinks a cognitive core trained on high-quality data could hit genuine intelligence at around one billion parameters. For reference, today's flagship models run between 200 billion and 1.8 trillion parameters with most of that weight dedicated to remembering the internet's slop. The trend is already moving his direction. GPT-4o operates at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion-parameter GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5-level performance dropped 280-fold between 2022 and 2024 driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The real bottleneck in AI right now is not compute but rather data quality.

Milk Road AI

200,409 views • 3 months ago