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Are we heading for a "Super El Niño"?🦸🌀 El Niño is declared when Pacific temperatures rise 0.5°C above average. Forecasts suggest 2026 could see rises of 2–3°C. Find out how the @IFRC is getting to reduce humanitarian impacts ➡️

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New NMME modeling shows the *strongest El Niño on record* unfolding from October 2026 through at least January 2027. Sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are forecast to soar 3.1˚C above average, reaching a peak in November.
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New NMME modeling shows the *strongest El Niño on record* unfolding from October 2026 through at least January 2027. Sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are forecast to soar 3.1˚C above average, reaching a peak in November.

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A remarkable 3.5˚C rise in central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures is possible by November, shows new ECMWF, which would mark the strongest El Niño on record. Possible strength scenarios range from +2.8˚C to +4.3˚C, with sweeping consequences on global climate into 2027.
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A remarkable 3.5˚C rise in central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures is possible by November, shows new ECMWF, which would mark the strongest El Niño on record. Possible strength scenarios range from +2.8˚C to +4.3˚C, with sweeping consequences on global climate into 2027.

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There are some notable warning signs around the developing El Niño, which is expected to strengthen between October and December 2026. According to NOAA: — More than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño — 69% chance it could be stronger than any El Niño recorded since 1950 — Pacific waters are already more than 2°C above normal in parts of the region — It could bring major shifts in rainfall, heat and storms across different parts of the world — If the Madden-Julian Oscillation aligns with El Niño, its effects could be amplified Credit:Weather With Travis / NOAA CPC
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A freight train of warm water chugging beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean is a big reason why a super El Niño may form this year. Ocean waters have peaked around 7.5˚C (13.5˚F) above average, breaking records. And now, it's nearing the western shores of South America 🧵
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A freight train of warm water chugging beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean is a big reason why a super El Niño may form this year. Ocean waters have peaked around 7.5˚C (13.5˚F) above average, breaking records. And now, it's nearing the western shores of South America 🧵

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El Niño has officially returned and could be severe. The UN is warning the world to prepare. The Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures “nearly everywhere” and fuel more extreme weather, according to World Meteorological Organization. Here are 5️⃣ facts you need to know⤵️
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El Niño has officially returned and could be severe. The UN is warning the world to prepare. The Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures “nearly everywhere” and fuel more extreme weather, according to World Meteorological Organization. Here are 5️⃣ facts you need to know⤵️

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Dr. Sahar Tajbakhsh, President of the Iranian Meteorological Organization: - Current modeling shows that El Niño will most likely bring higher than normal precipitation in Iran this fall (~70% chance). This will continue until mid-Esfand (that start of March). - El Niño is also projected to cause a rise in temperatures. This will start in the end of 2026. 2027 is projected to be a hot year. - As a result of climate change, Iran is getting gradually warmer. On average the temperatures across the country are going up by 0.4 C per decade. This year has been a warmer year than the last one.
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Dr. Sahar Tajbakhsh, President of the Iranian Meteorological Organization: - Current modeling shows that El Niño will most likely bring higher than normal precipitation in Iran this fall (~70% chance). This will continue until mid-Esfand (that start of March). - El Niño is also projected to cause a rise in temperatures. This will start in the end of 2026. 2027 is projected to be a hot year. - As a result of climate change, Iran is getting gradually warmer. On average the temperatures across the country are going up by 0.4 C per decade. This year has been a warmer year than the last one.

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A "super" El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is forecast to trigger a global supply shock, according to new research by Deutsche Bank. Impacts like extreme droughts in key growing regions could threaten harvests of staples like coffee, fruit, and chocolate.
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A "super" El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is forecast to trigger a global supply shock, according to new research by Deutsche Bank. Impacts like extreme droughts in key growing regions could threaten harvests of staples like coffee, fruit, and chocolate.

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The world’s oceans are under heat stress, with average sea surface temperatures hitting 21°C, surpassing the record highs of 2023 and 2024. They’re expected to rise further as El Nino, a natural climate pattern that warms the tropical Pacific for months, develops.
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The world’s oceans are under heat stress, with average sea surface temperatures hitting 21°C, surpassing the record highs of 2023 and 2024. They’re expected to rise further as El Nino, a natural climate pattern that warms the tropical Pacific for months, develops.

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Are you a dairy farmer or feedlot operator in need of high-quality forage silage? Now is the time to stock up before the Super El Niño impacts supply. We have plenty of silage available and ready for delivery secure yours today.
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A Kelvin wave is carrying ocean waters that have reached 13.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average in parts of the deep ocean. It could contribute to one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with increasing risks for drought, rain and record heat.
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79,939 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Water along SoCal's coast has been HOT...well, for the Pacific at least. Sea surface temperatures are in the mid 70S, which is about 5-10° above normal for August. And did you know this has NOTHING to do with El Niño?! This is an ongoing marine heatwave since May 2025. CBS News Bay Area
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Water along SoCal's coast has been HOT...well, for the Pacific at least. Sea surface temperatures are in the mid 70S, which is about 5-10° above normal for August. And did you know this has NOTHING to do with El Niño?! This is an ongoing marine heatwave since May 2025. CBS News Bay Area

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The atmosphere absorbs 7% more moisture for every 1°C temperature increase. Currently any moisture left in the soil & plants is being sucked out of them. The Super El Niño peaks in October ish, I’d highly recommend stocking up on food. The El Niño of 1877 killed 55m, this one is predicted to be much worse, let’s hope the death toll is lower, though I doubt it will be considering the starting point, surface sea temperatures are at levels never seen before by humans, the med hit 27.71°C this July. The next year will wake everyone up to the reality of the climate emergency, it’s going to be a very rough ride & it could very easily have been avoided, even Thatcher understood the situation. Stock up food supplies, time’s up!
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The atmosphere absorbs 7% more moisture for every 1°C temperature increase. Currently any moisture left in the soil & plants is being sucked out of them. The Super El Niño peaks in October ish, I’d highly recommend stocking up on food. The El Niño of 1877 killed 55m, this one is predicted to be much worse, let’s hope the death toll is lower, though I doubt it will be considering the starting point, surface sea temperatures are at levels never seen before by humans, the med hit 27.71°C this July. The next year will wake everyone up to the reality of the climate emergency, it’s going to be a very rough ride & it could very easily have been avoided, even Thatcher understood the situation. Stock up food supplies, time’s up!

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#EXCLUSIVE || "The energy risk may be behind us, but there is a strong possibility of an El Niño. In fact, there is now a 65% chance of a super El Niño affecting Asia and India this year. If that happens and food inflation rises sharply, I would strongly argue that the government should cut diesel and petrol prices. We do not want an inflation spiral in the economy or inflation expectations to rise."- Dr Sajjid Z Chinoy to Rajdeep Sardesai #NewsToday #ElNino #FuelPrice #India
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#EXCLUSIVE || "The energy risk may be behind us, but there is a strong possibility of an El Niño. In fact, there is now a 65% chance of a super El Niño affecting Asia and India this year. If that happens and food inflation rises sharply, I would strongly argue that the government should cut diesel and petrol prices. We do not want an inflation spiral in the economy or inflation expectations to rise."- Dr Sajjid Z Chinoy to Rajdeep Sardesai #NewsToday #ElNino #FuelPrice #India

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14,786 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Will we be a witness to El Niño history? It’s very possible! Every new model run exceeds our expectation for the “potential” strength of this upcoming El Niño event. The vast majority of models say a “Super” El Niño is coming. The caveat is that this is just a forecast, it’s early and it may fall short. Regardless though, while curbing our Atlantic Hurricane season, it can have a devastating impact to biodiversity like the Galápagos Islands. The 1982 event wiped out 97% of their penguin 🐧 population! Here’s a look at how El Niño evolves, the warning signs we are already seeing, and how it cripples the islands. (Remember the animation contained inside an idealized visual, it’s not exact) One last note: I’m not using the RONI here because I am simply making an apples to apples comparison of SST anom in the 3.4 region. When discussing the weather/ climate impact of an El Niño event I do agree that the RONI is the better metric. But this video focuses on the Biodiversity of the Galapagos Islands in which absolutes (not relative) matters more. #ElNino #florida
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Will we be a witness to El Niño history? It’s very possible! Every new model run exceeds our expectation for the “potential” strength of this upcoming El Niño event. The vast majority of models say a “Super” El Niño is coming. The caveat is that this is just a forecast, it’s early and it may fall short. Regardless though, while curbing our Atlantic Hurricane season, it can have a devastating impact to biodiversity like the Galápagos Islands. The 1982 event wiped out 97% of their penguin 🐧 population! Here’s a look at how El Niño evolves, the warning signs we are already seeing, and how it cripples the islands. (Remember the animation contained inside an idealized visual, it’s not exact) One last note: I’m not using the RONI here because I am simply making an apples to apples comparison of SST anom in the 3.4 region. When discussing the weather/ climate impact of an El Niño event I do agree that the RONI is the better metric. But this video focuses on the Biodiversity of the Galapagos Islands in which absolutes (not relative) matters more. #ElNino #florida

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Guess who's back, back again. La Niña's back, tell a friend. For the fifth time in six years, La Niña is back. Is the La Niña trend being influenced by rising global temperatures? Given how important El Niño and La Niña are to weather patterns, it's critical to figure this out!

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Just when you thought the fertilizer shortage was bad enough, now NOAA is predicting a "Super El Niño", the likes of which we haven't seen since 1878. This means elevated temperatures, widespread draught, crop failures and famine over the next 2-3 years. It can't be a coincidence the U.S. is cutting off supply chains and shutting down the Strait of Hormuz right now. China and the U.S. know what's coming.

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Another El Niño Record! Watch as heat “back ups” at the end. The heat building below the surface, which fuels the strength of El Niño, is higher than it’s ever been measured. This animation shows the heat just below the Tropical Pacific Ocean, moving from the West Pacific Warm Pool where it’s stored, to the East Pacific Surface where El Niño forms. Notice how at the end of the movie there’s a “heat backup” - like a traffic jam. That means there’s a lot more heat waiting under the surface to intensify our current El Niño event. It lends more evidence that this will be the strongest El Niño on record, and may end up reaching the high-end model scenarios. We’re already seeing the impacts: from a quiet Atlantic hurricane season, to an already invigorated subtropical jet stream with heavy rain along the #Gulf Coast, to big heat waves around the Globe. Come winter it will mean a very intense subtropical jet stream with a lot of heavy rain in the Southeast & #florida and likely frequent squall lines with severe weather and potential tornadoes 🌪️ #ElNino Thanks Alex Boreham for the great subsurface animation!
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Another El Niño Record! Watch as heat “back ups” at the end. The heat building below the surface, which fuels the strength of El Niño, is higher than it’s ever been measured. This animation shows the heat just below the Tropical Pacific Ocean, moving from the West Pacific Warm Pool where it’s stored, to the East Pacific Surface where El Niño forms. Notice how at the end of the movie there’s a “heat backup” - like a traffic jam. That means there’s a lot more heat waiting under the surface to intensify our current El Niño event. It lends more evidence that this will be the strongest El Niño on record, and may end up reaching the high-end model scenarios. We’re already seeing the impacts: from a quiet Atlantic hurricane season, to an already invigorated subtropical jet stream with heavy rain along the #Gulf Coast, to big heat waves around the Globe. Come winter it will mean a very intense subtropical jet stream with a lot of heavy rain in the Southeast & #florida and likely frequent squall lines with severe weather and potential tornadoes 🌪️ #ElNino Thanks Alex Boreham for the great subsurface animation!

Jeff Berardelli

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Melting glaciers are a growing disaster risk for mountain communities – and those in the valleys below. 📢 We need urgent action to slow climate-driven glacial melt, and reduce disaster risks. Discover how disaster risks cascade ➡️
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UNDRR

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The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877. (+2.9 vs +2.7 using ONI) While this peak intensity may or may not occur, all signs are pointing to a Super El Niño - a “natural” oscillation. That will expel stored heat from the deep Tropical Pacific - on top of significant longterm warming - heating Earth to record levels not measured before in late 2026-2027, powering extreme heat waves, droughts, and rain storms… while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane season 1/ #ElNino #extremeweather #science
3:03

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877. (+2.9 vs +2.7 using ONI) While this peak intensity may or may not occur, all signs are pointing to a Super El Niño - a “natural” oscillation. That will expel stored heat from the deep Tropical Pacific - on top of significant longterm warming - heating Earth to record levels not measured before in late 2026-2027, powering extreme heat waves, droughts, and rain storms… while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane season 1/ #ElNino #extremeweather #science

Jeff Berardelli

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