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$ASTS may ultimately be much more than a satellite phone network because the same physical architecture is already generating government radar revenue and attracting sovereign constellation funding. But the valuation still ultimately depends on the core broadband network working at scale which means 13 satellites need to become ~45...

138,099 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Thomas Laffont on how Coatue values SpaceX: “The quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more they launch.” “The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches, which intuitively makes sense. If your business is the launch business, the more you launch, the higher your value should be. So I think we see that in the data. But there's another fundamentally different ratio that I want to point you to, which is, what if we took the valuation, we divided it by the number of launches, what would that look like? Well, you can see it was kind of in a fixed range for a while, and then it really started to move up. And we believe that markets are rational, and so we started thinking, well, why is it that the market is valuing SpaceX higher on a per launch basis when it's launching more than when it was just starting out? And my fundamental view, and we'll kind of call this our Coatue framework, is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch. So in phase one, which we call pre-constellation, you're just trying your rockets. And we know rockets are hard, and maybe you have a few government customers, and that's a one-time revenue business, and it's unpredictable. Then you get into your initial ramp, and now you might have one constellation. So why is a constellation important? Well, it's an end market and it's a recurring revenue business. The more satellites you put up, the more subscribers you have, the more revenue, etc. Now you can move from ramp into scale. Now you don't just have one constellation, you have multiple constellations. So now you move into being a scaled business, which ultimately becomes a platform. And we know how valuable these platforms are in this technology age. And platform means not only do you have many more customers in your core business, but you also have new businesses. It could be space datacenters, it could be the optionality of the Moon and Mars, and other space applications.” Elon Musk SpaceX $SPCX --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.

The All-In Podcast

39,029 次观看 • 3 个月前

"I used to be a bitcoiner. The transition to a new store of value only happens once every 3,000 years. That's the main prize -- just focus on that. But [security] is the criteria that ultimately convinced me to flip from Bitcoin to ETH." "I have a higher degree of certainty that Ethereum will be around longer [than Bitcoin]. The reason for that is because Bitcoin relies on proof-of-work, which is less efficient than proof-of-stake and doesn't scale with the value of the network. And as the block subsidy of Bitcoin halves every four years, it is increasingly becoming more and more reliant on transaction fees to fund the security budget paid to miners." "If you look at [Bitcoin's] security budget right now, about 0.6% of revenue to miners is transaction fees... The problem with that is if Bitcoin becomes 'digital gold', flips gold, and becomes a $30 trillion asset, but it only costs $10-20 billion to attack it, that's too asymmetric." "You want the security budget to scale with the market cap, similar to how countries spend a % of their GDP on defense. The more valuable something is, the more you need to spend to protect it." "Ethereum, with the Merge, migrated to proof-of-stake, which is fundamentally more secure because it's less reliant on transaction fees and it scales with the value of the network. If 1/3rd of ETH is staked and then you need 1/3rd of those ETH to censor the network, you're looking at roughly 10% of the total market cap as the cost to attack the network." "So if Ethereum flips Bitcoin and gold and becomes a $30 trillion asset, it'll cost ~$3 trillion to attack the Ethereum network versus Bitcoin at like $10 billion." "The other aspect here is that as AI hyperscalers invest more and more in AI, proof-of-work becomes increasingly vulnerable because the cost to attack the Bitcoin network is starting to look close to the quarterly CapEx these hyperscalers are spending on their data centers." Full interview on Bankless with Vivek Raman discussing the new Etherealize "Productive Money" report below.

Michael McGuiness

120,514 次观看 • 5 个月前

I think Starlink is wildly undervalued. It’s a $1+ trillion company in the making on its own. A lot of people still think Starlink is just “internet from space,” but in reality, it’s one of the most important communications networks ever built. In 2025 alone, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue, accounting for roughly 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue. It served more than 10 million customers globally and generated $4.4 billion in operating profit w/ EBITDA margins of 63%. Starlink is a cash machine. Fyi, independent analysts forecast Starlink will generate approximately $20 billion in revenue, $14 billion in EBITDA, and over $8 billion in free cash flow in 2026… plus consumer broadband will continue to expand rapidly, while aviation, maritime, Starshield, and direct-to-cell services will open entirely new markets. The real advantage is that Starlink owns the entire stack. SpaceX builds the satellites, they launch the satellites, they operate the network, and they manufacture the user terminals. No competitor comes close to that level of vertical integration…. On top of this, starship will make the story even more crazier with next-generation satellites, 100+ satellites per launch, dramatically lowering launch costs, and thousands of new satellites being deployed each year, the cost of serving additional customers continuing to fall, while the network & tech keep getting stronger. If you really want to understand why SpaceX is at a $2T valuation… start with Starlink. Starlink already generates the majority of SpaceX’s revenue, profit, and free cash flow. It helps fund Starship development, supports expansion across the company, and provides the financial engine behind SpaceX’s long-term ambitions. The bull case is based on real revenue, real profits, real customers, and a moat that gets wider every year… NOT hype. The way I see it, Starlink will become the most valuable communication company in human history and a $1 trillion valuation doesn’t sound crazy to me for this business/technology alone.

Teslaconomics

28,352 次观看 • 3 个月前