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BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly...

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KIMMY OF GOOD LIFE 😍

21,955 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion
46:11

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

MR SHIFT 🦁

31,039 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I built a decentralized prediction market app called Aracana Markets, fully live and deployed on Arc network. Arcana Market is an onchain prediction market where anyone trades YES or NO on real-world events using USDC on arc network. Right now , there are active 33 markets covering: crypto, politics, sports, macro, AI , culture , arc , and science. To get started claim faucet at - Visit - connect your wallet - pick any market of your choice - predict either yes or no - trade with USDC - contract settles automatically when the event resolves i would really love it if you could test it out and share your feedback with me. Thank you. ⚠️ testnet only , please use a burner wallet
2:35

I built a decentralized prediction market app called Aracana Markets, fully live and deployed on Arc network. Arcana Market is an onchain prediction market where anyone trades YES or NO on real-world events using USDC on arc network. Right now , there are active 33 markets covering: crypto, politics, sports, macro, AI , culture , arc , and science. To get started claim faucet at - Visit - connect your wallet - pick any market of your choice - predict either yes or no - trade with USDC - contract settles automatically when the event resolves i would really love it if you could test it out and share your feedback with me. Thank you. ⚠️ testnet only , please use a burner wallet

Stephanie

43,885 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

World Cup 2026 kicks off June 11, accompanied by 48 teams, and billions of dollars are expected to flow through prediction markets in real time. With these events unfolding, prediction markets are finding their fit as the world stage for expressing opinions on real world outcomes like the World Cup 2026. But most of that money will flow through systems that are designed to take it from you, like traditional sports betting. Traditional sports betting is built around a house and a bookie that sets the odds and profits from your losses. The house controls whether you can even withdraw or not. Pots Market is built differently. With the Polymarket integration, it inherits deep peer-to-peer liquidity from day one. Users buy "Yes" or "No" shares for an event, with prices fluctuating based on supply and demand, representing the crowd's estimated probability. There is no bookmaker that's control every bet like traditional platforms do. And Pots Market will have functions similar to a stock market. You can enter or exit a position at any time by selling your shares at the current market price before an event concludes, allowing you to lock in profits or cut losses. Here is what makes it different from anything else launching right now: (1) Resolution is on-chain, where the rules are visible to everyone and changeable by no one, making the code the referee rather than a central authority. (2) Capital is also programmable, where DeFi lending primitives let you size positions intelligently, sub-accounts isolate strategies, and the MCP interface lets you deploy autonomous AI agents to execute on your behalf. (3) And prediction is not limited to football, as crypto prices, and any real world outcome with a verifiable resolution becomes a tradeable position. The rate at which gambling amongst the younger populations is increasing is quite alarming, to say the least. It feels like almost every person within the age range of 18-30 is doing sports betting. With the largest sport event happening in just a few weeks, it is also the single largest coordinated prediction event on the planet, arriving at the exact moment when a generation of young, digitally-native bettors are looking for something better than what the house has been offering them. That generation already knows how to take risk. What they have never had is infrastructure that is not rigged and actually works in their favor. Pots Market is that infrastructure. Pots Market Pots Money
0:54

World Cup 2026 kicks off June 11, accompanied by 48 teams, and billions of dollars are expected to flow through prediction markets in real time. With these events unfolding, prediction markets are finding their fit as the world stage for expressing opinions on real world outcomes like the World Cup 2026. But most of that money will flow through systems that are designed to take it from you, like traditional sports betting. Traditional sports betting is built around a house and a bookie that sets the odds and profits from your losses. The house controls whether you can even withdraw or not. Pots Market is built differently. With the Polymarket integration, it inherits deep peer-to-peer liquidity from day one. Users buy "Yes" or "No" shares for an event, with prices fluctuating based on supply and demand, representing the crowd's estimated probability. There is no bookmaker that's control every bet like traditional platforms do. And Pots Market will have functions similar to a stock market. You can enter or exit a position at any time by selling your shares at the current market price before an event concludes, allowing you to lock in profits or cut losses. Here is what makes it different from anything else launching right now: (1) Resolution is on-chain, where the rules are visible to everyone and changeable by no one, making the code the referee rather than a central authority. (2) Capital is also programmable, where DeFi lending primitives let you size positions intelligently, sub-accounts isolate strategies, and the MCP interface lets you deploy autonomous AI agents to execute on your behalf. (3) And prediction is not limited to football, as crypto prices, and any real world outcome with a verifiable resolution becomes a tradeable position. The rate at which gambling amongst the younger populations is increasing is quite alarming, to say the least. It feels like almost every person within the age range of 18-30 is doing sports betting. With the largest sport event happening in just a few weeks, it is also the single largest coordinated prediction event on the planet, arriving at the exact moment when a generation of young, digitally-native bettors are looking for something better than what the house has been offering them. That generation already knows how to take risk. What they have never had is infrastructure that is not rigged and actually works in their favor. Pots Market is that infrastructure. Pots Market Pots Money

lefttoorz 👑

36,825 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

AI is everywhere. But the real question is: how does AI participate in the economy? That's where Base comes in. While everyone is focused on AI models, Base is building the rails for AI agents to transact, pay, and interact online. With Baseapp, you can already access a future where trading, payments, yield, prediction markets, and more live in one place. Ready to explore the future of the onchain economy? Download Base App and see what's possible 👇
0:48

AI is everywhere. But the real question is: how does AI participate in the economy? That's where Base comes in. While everyone is focused on AI models, Base is building the rails for AI agents to transact, pay, and interact online. With Baseapp, you can already access a future where trading, payments, yield, prediction markets, and more live in one place. Ready to explore the future of the onchain economy? Download Base App and see what's possible 👇

SPACE 😎

16,125 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

coldvision and agents are friends now. We built an MPP endpoint on Tempo, onchain prediction market intelligence is now discoverable by agents. Fund a wallet. Point it at the signal. Let it hunt. Jammed async with the Paradigm crew and hackers at Bazaar. Getting agents to do real work onchain just got frictionless. Now we're running experiments. Autonomous research pipelines for prediction market traders. Infrastructure is live. Something is watching the markets that never sleeps. 🔗 🔗 More soon. Maybe.
0:26

coldvision and agents are friends now. We built an MPP endpoint on Tempo, onchain prediction market intelligence is now discoverable by agents. Fund a wallet. Point it at the signal. Let it hunt. Jammed async with the Paradigm crew and hackers at Bazaar. Getting agents to do real work onchain just got frictionless. Now we're running experiments. Autonomous research pipelines for prediction market traders. Infrastructure is live. Something is watching the markets that never sleeps. 🔗 🔗 More soon. Maybe.

coldvision

12,604 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

FROM A $50 SALARY IN SYRIA TO A $6M ROUND Episode 5 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from a founder who restarted from zero three times and never sent a single cold email to close his round Ali, founder and CEO of XO Market. We go deep into why 400+ prediction markets are just copies of the same model, why a whale unfairly resolving his Polymarket bet became the tipping point, and how AI agents now decide market outcomes instead of humans Now he's building XO Market, where anyone can turn any idea into a conviction market. Everything you need to know about user-generated markets, XO Vaults and the future of prediction markets is in this episode --- Win 1,000 Conviction Points and get access to XO's weekly parlays with prizes up to $50,000 (we'll pick the winner on July 13): - sign up via the link: -drop your username with your most creative comment or question about the episode and follow Predict Time and XO Market --- Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Raising $6M without pitching a single VC 04:29 Why not just copy Polymarket 07:05 Advice for builders: grants over VC money 12:15 Building a team across every continent 15:52 Ali's story: from Syria to Switzerland 19:29 Leaving corporate (Roche) for crypto 22:24 Why raising money is a liability, not a win 25:42 How XO Market conviction markets actually work 29:43 What stops thousands of dead markets 32:41 The tech that gives markets instant liquidity 37:43 How to create your own market 39:14 Getting attention: local communities & ambassadors 44:20 Not the of prediction markets 48:22 Who decides the outcome: AI resolution 51:43 XO Vault: market making for everyone 56:47 The moment XO Market took off 1:02:14 Is prediction market usage exaggerated? 1:05:17 Elon Musk and mention markets 1:07:04 AI vs humans: jobs and the jury system 1:13:56 Are Polymarket & Kalshi overvalued? 1:16:16 What's next: Parlays, Vaults & the World Cup 1:23:06 Is XO Market becoming a sportsbook? 1:25:15 AI agents trading on their own 1:27:40 Regulation & staying permissionless 1:33:08 The investors: 20VC, Harry & a cricket legend 1:44:55 Will there be a token? 1:46:45 Blitz: rapid-fire round 1:52:59 Closing & giveaway
1:55:06

FROM A $50 SALARY IN SYRIA TO A $6M ROUND Episode 5 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from a founder who restarted from zero three times and never sent a single cold email to close his round Ali, founder and CEO of XO Market. We go deep into why 400+ prediction markets are just copies of the same model, why a whale unfairly resolving his Polymarket bet became the tipping point, and how AI agents now decide market outcomes instead of humans Now he's building XO Market, where anyone can turn any idea into a conviction market. Everything you need to know about user-generated markets, XO Vaults and the future of prediction markets is in this episode --- Win 1,000 Conviction Points and get access to XO's weekly parlays with prizes up to $50,000 (we'll pick the winner on July 13): - sign up via the link: -drop your username with your most creative comment or question about the episode and follow Predict Time and XO Market --- Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Raising $6M without pitching a single VC 04:29 Why not just copy Polymarket 07:05 Advice for builders: grants over VC money 12:15 Building a team across every continent 15:52 Ali's story: from Syria to Switzerland 19:29 Leaving corporate (Roche) for crypto 22:24 Why raising money is a liability, not a win 25:42 How XO Market conviction markets actually work 29:43 What stops thousands of dead markets 32:41 The tech that gives markets instant liquidity 37:43 How to create your own market 39:14 Getting attention: local communities & ambassadors 44:20 Not the of prediction markets 48:22 Who decides the outcome: AI resolution 51:43 XO Vault: market making for everyone 56:47 The moment XO Market took off 1:02:14 Is prediction market usage exaggerated? 1:05:17 Elon Musk and mention markets 1:07:04 AI vs humans: jobs and the jury system 1:13:56 Are Polymarket & Kalshi overvalued? 1:16:16 What's next: Parlays, Vaults & the World Cup 1:23:06 Is XO Market becoming a sportsbook? 1:25:15 AI agents trading on their own 1:27:40 Regulation & staying permissionless 1:33:08 The investors: 20VC, Harry & a cricket legend 1:44:55 Will there be a token? 1:46:45 Blitz: rapid-fire round 1:52:59 Closing & giveaway

Predict Time

24,425 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Just got access to Polymarket Perps. First impression: the setup is really clean. Perpetuals and prediction markets have separate wallets, but you can move funds between them seamlessly. The UI feels smooth, minimal, and easy to use. Crypto, indices, and commodities are already live, which is pretty cool. Will share more once I've played around with it a bit more, but overall, I'm very bullish on where this is going.
0:25

Just got access to Polymarket Perps. First impression: the setup is really clean. Perpetuals and prediction markets have separate wallets, but you can move funds between them seamlessly. The UI feels smooth, minimal, and easy to use. Crypto, indices, and commodities are already live, which is pretty cool. Will share more once I've played around with it a bit more, but overall, I'm very bullish on where this is going.

ascetic

75,550 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:
1:43

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:

a16z

71,210 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten