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BITCOIN AMPLIFICATION DRIVES TOTAL RETURNS A company paying 14% for preferred capital can outperform a company paying 6% - when greater amplification captures a sufficiently large positive Bitcoin spread. I think the actual math behind how much amplification drives total returns will shock you. In this video I explain...

14,317 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

5 Kommentare

Profilbild von Adam Livingston
Adam Livingstonvor 4 Tagen

Please like this video on YouTube and subscribe to my channel to support my MISSION of spreading the ORANGE GOSPEL to the masses!

Profilbild von William Wallets
William Walletsvor 4 Tagen

@Werkman Banger per usual

Profilbild von Adam Livingston
Adam Livingstonvor 4 Tagen

@Werkman Thank you my dear friend!

Profilbild von Not_Sure
Not_Surevor 4 Tagen

Solid work spreading the orange gospel — always good to see more Bitcoin conviction content out there. I’ve been getting a lot out of what you and @Rowan_A1b post too.

Profilbild von Đỗ Khoa | Solomon Do
Đỗ Khoa | Solomon Dovor 4 Tagen

Totally agree on amplification driving returns. You and @mozlyxy are my go to finance accounts.

Ähnliche Videos

Bitcoin vs. Amplified Bitcoin I ran 500,000 paired Monte Carlo simulations over four years. Bitcoin starts at $86,000, with a 40% geometric CAGR assumption and 40% annualized volatility. The amplified model takes 1.5× each simulated daily Bitcoin return, producing roughly 60% volatility. Same Bitcoin shocks. Same $86,000 starting investment. Different sensitivity. Median ending value: Bitcoin: $330,057 - 3.84× Amplified Bitcoin: $508,584 - 5.91× At the 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $1.235 million Amplified Bitcoin: $3.676 million At the 99th percentile: Bitcoin: $2.132 million Amplified Bitcoin: $8.327 million The probability of finishing at 10× or more rises from 11.6% to 33.1%. Amplified Bitcoin finishes ahead in 85.9% of the paired simulations. But the wider upside distribution comes with a materially rougher ride. Median maximum drawdown increases from 42.2% to 57.7%. The probability of finishing below the starting investment rises from 4.7% to 7.0%. A company targeting sustained amplified exposure needs to actively manage its capital structure and Bitcoin exposure. Issuing preferred equity once does not permanently lock in 1.5× stock-price sensitivity, and balance-sheet amplification is not the same as market beta. These are the mathematical results of a maintained-sensitivity projection, not a forecast for any company. Financing costs, preferred dividends, dilution, valuation changes, and company-specific risks are excluded. Volatility is vitality:

Adam Livingston

27,726 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

Great post by Matt here explaining why Bitcoin amplification can matter dramatically more than cost of capital. A lot of people like to obsess over the dividend rates, but what actually hits the common stock? It is cost × scale × amplification. Here’s an actual sensitivity test with two mathematical examples. I ran the exact same Bitcoin treasury model twice. They have the same BTC purchases, same preferred issuance, same capital structure, and same BTC path. The only thing I changed was the dividend rate on new preferred capital: 13% vs. 15%. If Bitcoin ends at $150K: 13% prefs → 26,662 sats/share 15% prefs → 26,466 sats/share Difference: 0.74% If Bitcoin ends at $250K: 13% prefs → 32,225 sats/share 15% prefs → 32,062 sats/share Difference: 0.50% Obviously, cheaper capital is better when everything else is equal. But that's the point. A 200 bps difference in preferred cost moved the modeled common-equity outcome by less than 1%. Matt's math is right. Now take the thought experiment one step further. Assume two companies each begin with $100M of common equity, Bitcoin rises 50%, and both can invest their preferred proceeds into Bitcoin. Company A can raise $50M of preferred capital at 13%. $150M of Bitcoin appreciates to $225M. Subtract $50M of preferred principal and $6.5M of dividends. Ending common equity: $168.5M Common equity return: +68.5% Company B has to pay 15%, but its investor base and liquidity allow it to raise twice as much: $100M. $200M of Bitcoin appreciates to $300M. Subtract $100M of preferred principal and $15M of dividends. Ending common equity: $185M Common equity return: +85.0% So the company paying the higher cost of capital produces the higher common-equity return: 13% financing → +68.5% 15% financing → +85.0% That is a 16.5 percentage point advantage despite paying 200 bps more for capital. Assuming an unchanged valuation multiple and no common-share dilution (could be accretive economically), those are also approximately the stock returns. This is why obsessing over the lowest possible preferred coupon can miss the bigger variable. Cost of capital matters, but how much accretive capital can you raise and deploy is a lot more important. Amplification overwhelmingly drives shareholder returns:

Adam Livingston

20,110 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

Long but VERY IMPORTANT POST on the importance of Bitcoin amplification while Bitcoin is cheap. Bitcoin treasury X has spent months litigating preferred dividends. "9% is smart. 13% is expensive. 15% is reckless." If you're underwriting a long-term bull thesis, you're arguing about the wrong variable. So I built a model. Three hypothetical companies. Same $10 stock. Same Bitcoin per share. Bitcoin compounds 25% a year for ten years, $75k to ~$698k. mNAV is pinned at 1.0x the entire time. No premium, no reflexivity, no ATM magic. The only difference is how much amplification they buy (preferred notional ÷ Bitcoin holdings) and what they pay for it: A: 9% dividend, sliding to 0% by year ten. 10% amplification. B: 13% dividend. 35% amplification. C: 15% dividend. 60% amplification. The preferred is senior, perpetual, and a fixed-dollar claim. Proceeds buy Bitcoin. Each company keeps issuing at a steady monthly pace, and every dividend gets paid by issuing common at NAV. Every coupon dollar costs shareholders real Bitcoin. Year ten: A: $123 B: $146 C: $166 Just owning Bitcoin: $93 The ranking is perfectly backwards to cost of capital. The cheapest money finished dead last. So let's be generous. Give Company A a 0% dividend rate from day one. Yup. Free money, forever. $134. Still last. C could pay 17% and still tie free money. Over the decade C pays $5.3 billion in dividends. A pays $84 million. C nearly quadruples its share count funding those coupons and still grows Bitcoin per share 78%. A grows it 32%. The first-order math explains it: Extra return ≈ (preferred per $1 of equity) × (Bitcoin return − dividend) A has the better spread: 25 minus 9 is 16 points. C's is 10. But C carries $1.50 of preferred per dollar of equity. A carries 11 cents. The dividend is a subtraction. Amplification is a multiplier. You can't subtract your way past someone who's multiplying. It also tells you exactly when the coupon matters: in proportion to the amplification it's attached to. A cheap coupon on a sliver of amplification is just a very efficient way to own less Bitcoin. Now the attribution. Treat your Bitcoin path as the given, since that is literally the thesis you're underwriting, and run Shapley over the two players left: amplification and mNAV. Remember... mNAV sat at 1.0x for ten years, so its Shapley value is exactly zero. Bitcoin paid every company the same +$83. Amplification, net of every dividend: A +$30, B +$53, C +$73. All of the outperformance is amplification, and mNAV hasn't even entered the equation. Put any premium you like on top. It multiplies an amplified NAV. Timing is the part people miss. A fixed-dollar claim locked in while Bitcoin is cheap gets melted by the run. Company C issues preferred every single month and still drifts from 60% amplification to 21% by year ten. The bull market de-levers you for free. Run C's exact playbook but wait for Bitcoin to double before starting: $150 instead of $166. Same coupon, same ratio, worse entry. The real question if you are a Bitcoin bull is "how fast do you think Bitcoin compounds?" If your answer is under 20%, the coupon is the least of your problems. If you think Bitcoin is cheap, amplify while it's cheap. Penny pinching the coupon is optimizing the toll on a road you're barely driving on. Hypothetical model, not investment advice. Explainer video below:

Adam Livingston

17,845 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag