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BITCOIN is about to EXPLODE: Bitcoin is sitting around $63k, down roughly 50% from the ATH, basically stapled to its 4-year moving average. So I ran 20,000 historically conditioned Monte Carlo paths from here. The model uses actual historical Bitcoin return blocks and conditions on the kind of state... we’re in now: BTC near its 4-year MA 90-day return deeply negative drawdown near 50% realized volatility compressed long-term moving average still rising Then I asked a simple question: What tends to happen next if Bitcoin behaves like Bitcoin? Here’s the raw 24-month distribution: 10th percentile: $79K 25th percentile: $108K Median: $179K 75th percentile: $255K 90th percentile: $402K Median outcome: $63K → $179K That’s roughly a +183% total return (68% CAGR) In the middle of a bear market. While everyone is currently examining a -2.7% candle like the Warren Commission examining the Zapruder film. The path to those outcomes is also aggressively Bitcoin. Across the simulations: 93.3% suffer a 30%+ drawdown somewhere along the way. Median maximum drawdown: -42.7% So the model is basically saying: “Congratulations. You may become much richer. First, however, Bitcoin would like to put your nervous system in a Home Depot paint shaker.” The simulation practically expects emotional property damage. But when I look at this distribution, the question becomes less: “What if Bitcoin drops again?” and more: “What if this is the part everyone remembers later as obvious?” Bear markets are where conviction gets tested. Sometimes they’re also where the future CAGR is quietly being manufactured while everyone else is refreshing the chart and developing a magnesium deficiency:show more

Adam Livingston

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59,659 просмотров • 14 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Bitcoin is the apex asset. There isn't a close second place. I charted the 2-year moving average of Bitcoin, gold, and SPY from Jan. 1, 2020 to May 22, 2026. The results are disgusting. Bitcoin 2Y MA: +1,073% Gold 2Y MA: +157% SPY 2Y MA: +118% Bitcoin’s smoothed long-term trend vaporized them. BTC’s cumulative 2Y moving-average return was roughly 6.8x gold’s return and 9.1x SPY’s return. Gold did its job. It protected purchasing power better than most fiat garbage. SPY did what corporate America does, climbed the liquidity escalator while everyone pretended earnings growth wasn’t being embalmed by monetary debasement. But Bitcoin was the actual escape vehicle. Bitcoin volatility is loud. Fiat decay is quiet. The 2-year moving average strips away the noise and shows you the signal: Bitcoin is repricing the world slowly, then violently, then permanently.

Bitcoin is the apex asset. There isn't a close second place. I charted the 2-year moving average of Bitcoin, gold, and SPY from Jan. 1, 2020 to May 22, 2026. The results are disgusting. Bitcoin 2Y MA: +1,073% Gold 2Y MA: +157% SPY 2Y MA: +118% Bitcoin’s smoothed long-term trend vaporized them. BTC’s cumulative 2Y moving-average return was roughly 6.8x gold’s return and 9.1x SPY’s return. Gold did its job. It protected purchasing power better than most fiat garbage. SPY did what corporate America does, climbed the liquidity escalator while everyone pretended earnings growth wasn’t being embalmed by monetary debasement. But Bitcoin was the actual escape vehicle. Bitcoin volatility is loud. Fiat decay is quiet. The 2-year moving average strips away the noise and shows you the signal: Bitcoin is repricing the world slowly, then violently, then permanently.

Adam Livingston

65,375 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Bitcoin is down ~47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126K. Fear & Greed at single digits. "BTC to zero” Google searches at 5-year highs. ETF outflows mounting. People are calling for $40K, even $25K. So I animated 15 years of drawdown data to put this moment in context. - - - Left: BTC price (log scale), colored by drawdown regime. Right: The distribution of every single day Bitcoin has spent at each drawdown depth from an ATH, built up in real time as price evolves. Importantly, the distribution evolves and is not static - the peaks/valleys grow over time - but what is the trend in how they’re evolving? This tells you something important about what Bitcoin is becoming. - - - There are 3 predominant drawdown regions: 🟢Green = 0 to -15% (Regime 1) ⚪️White = -15% to -35% (Transition) 🔴Red = ≤ -35% (Regime 2) Watch it build. 2011: -92.7% bottom. The histogram is a thin red smear. Almost all of Bitcoin's short existence spent deep underwater. 2013-2015: Another cycle, another -72% drawdown. The distribution fills in a fat red tail between -60% and -80%. Over 1,500 days in drawdown. Most of them brutal. 2017: BTC makes a brief ATH at $11,562, but the histogram tells us that with 2,524 drawdown days, red still dominates. Bitcoin had spent most of its life getting punished. 2018: -78.4%. The -60 to -80% band fills in further. Again, Bitcoin getting punished. This has been the story of the old Bitcoin. Then something shifts. By 2021, the green bars near 0% start growing much more. Bitcoin is beginning to spend more time near its highs than it used to. The distribution is migrating left. 2022 bottom: -68.5%. Still deep, but shallower than every prior cycle bottom. Each cycle's worst drawdown has gotten less severe: -92.7% → -87% → -84% → -77% → -68.5% The floor keeps rising, the green keeps growing, and the red tail is still there - but it's shrinking as a share of the whole. The transition zone is gaining more share too, but still markedly less time there than red or green (for example we just recently spent nearly 90 days in this zone after the Oct ‘25 ATH). This is what maturation looks like in the data. Not the absence of drawdowns, but the gradual compression of their severity and the accumulation of time spent near highs. - - - So where are we now? Down ~47% from $126K. Sentiment is the worst since June 2022. Everyone's asking if this is 2018 again. Probably not. Bitcoin has spent a structurally larger share of time in Regime 1 than ever before, especially in this cycle. Green-white oscillations are replacing the deep red plunges. The dives into Regime 2 are getting shallower. We could still go lower from here, but the data is compressing the downside, cycle over cycle. Whether the market believes that right now is a different question… - - - Worth a boomark 📙, as you might need to come back to this a few times to digest 🧠

Bitcoin is down ~47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126K. Fear & Greed at single digits. "BTC to zero” Google searches at 5-year highs. ETF outflows mounting. People are calling for $40K, even $25K. So I animated 15 years of drawdown data to put this moment in context. - - - Left: BTC price (log scale), colored by drawdown regime. Right: The distribution of every single day Bitcoin has spent at each drawdown depth from an ATH, built up in real time as price evolves. Importantly, the distribution evolves and is not static - the peaks/valleys grow over time - but what is the trend in how they’re evolving? This tells you something important about what Bitcoin is becoming. - - - There are 3 predominant drawdown regions: 🟢Green = 0 to -15% (Regime 1) ⚪️White = -15% to -35% (Transition) 🔴Red = ≤ -35% (Regime 2) Watch it build. 2011: -92.7% bottom. The histogram is a thin red smear. Almost all of Bitcoin's short existence spent deep underwater. 2013-2015: Another cycle, another -72% drawdown. The distribution fills in a fat red tail between -60% and -80%. Over 1,500 days in drawdown. Most of them brutal. 2017: BTC makes a brief ATH at $11,562, but the histogram tells us that with 2,524 drawdown days, red still dominates. Bitcoin had spent most of its life getting punished. 2018: -78.4%. The -60 to -80% band fills in further. Again, Bitcoin getting punished. This has been the story of the old Bitcoin. Then something shifts. By 2021, the green bars near 0% start growing much more. Bitcoin is beginning to spend more time near its highs than it used to. The distribution is migrating left. 2022 bottom: -68.5%. Still deep, but shallower than every prior cycle bottom. Each cycle's worst drawdown has gotten less severe: -92.7% → -87% → -84% → -77% → -68.5% The floor keeps rising, the green keeps growing, and the red tail is still there - but it's shrinking as a share of the whole. The transition zone is gaining more share too, but still markedly less time there than red or green (for example we just recently spent nearly 90 days in this zone after the Oct ‘25 ATH). This is what maturation looks like in the data. Not the absence of drawdowns, but the gradual compression of their severity and the accumulation of time spent near highs. - - - So where are we now? Down ~47% from $126K. Sentiment is the worst since June 2022. Everyone's asking if this is 2018 again. Probably not. Bitcoin has spent a structurally larger share of time in Regime 1 than ever before, especially in this cycle. Green-white oscillations are replacing the deep red plunges. The dives into Regime 2 are getting shallower. We could still go lower from here, but the data is compressing the downside, cycle over cycle. Whether the market believes that right now is a different question… - - - Worth a boomark 📙, as you might need to come back to this a few times to digest 🧠

Sminston With 👁

31,188 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Saylor says Strategy could become a $2 trillion company. The vision is ambitious. His long-term goal is to build a Bitcoin-backed credit business: “We think the company will be more valuable if Bitcoin backed credit is successful.” “This is like Netflix or Amazon.” “They were providing free shipping for a long time. When everyone in the country started using their product, they won.” “We want to create the world’s best credit.” The comparison is certainly interesting. Amazon and Netflix became giants because they built products used by hundreds of millions of people. Strategy’s model is different. It is built around Bitcoin appreciation, capital markets and the ability to create financial products around BTC. If Bitcoin continues its long-term growth, the strategy could look revolutionary. If Bitcoin enters another prolonged bear market, the model will face its biggest test. Either way, this is one of the most fascinating experiments happening in public markets. History will decide whether this was genius… Or one of the biggest risks ever taken by a company.

Saylor says Strategy could become a $2 trillion company. The vision is ambitious. His long-term goal is to build a Bitcoin-backed credit business: “We think the company will be more valuable if Bitcoin backed credit is successful.” “This is like Netflix or Amazon.” “They were providing free shipping for a long time. When everyone in the country started using their product, they won.” “We want to create the world’s best credit.” The comparison is certainly interesting. Amazon and Netflix became giants because they built products used by hundreds of millions of people. Strategy’s model is different. It is built around Bitcoin appreciation, capital markets and the ability to create financial products around BTC. If Bitcoin continues its long-term growth, the strategy could look revolutionary. If Bitcoin enters another prolonged bear market, the model will face its biggest test. Either way, this is one of the most fascinating experiments happening in public markets. History will decide whether this was genius… Or one of the biggest risks ever taken by a company.

That Martini Guy ₿

17,406 просмотров • 11 дней назад

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Anthony Scaramucci (Anthony Scaramucci): CZ called a super cycle, ETFs arrived, Trump came in - and Bitcoin is still down over 50% from the top. What broke? Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com): nothing. A 50%-plus drawdown is the correction phase of the 4-year cycle, not a bear market. He dates the historical re-entry window to August-October 2026, with $50-60K as where long-term buyers reload. Prices near $58-59K are already in the zone.

Anthony Scaramucci (Anthony Scaramucci): CZ called a super cycle, ETFs arrived, Trump came in - and Bitcoin is still down over 50% from the top. What broke? Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com): nothing. A 50%-plus drawdown is the correction phase of the 4-year cycle, not a bear market. He dates the historical re-entry window to August-October 2026, with $50-60K as where long-term buyers reload. Prices near $58-59K are already in the zone.

Podcast Alpha

23,283 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

14,499 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic & What Comes Next (full episode) Root 🥕 with Walker⚡️ Is Bitcoin in a bear market? When will we hit the bottom? How long until bitcoin hits $1M? Walker sits down with Bitcoin analyst Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term. CHAPTERS: 00:00 TRAILER: A Bitcoin Bear Market? 01:54 Current Vibe Check on Bitcoin 11:14 ETF Holdings and Institutional Adoption 17:17 The Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin 22:14 ETFs and Retail Demand 27:30 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles 36:23 Comparing Bitcoin to Prior Cycles 41:37 Diminishing Returns and Gold’s Price Action 50:41 What a Broken Bitcoin Spiral Looks Like 57:54 Measuring Bitcoin in Fiat 1:04:24 DCAing into Bitcoin

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic & What Comes Next (full episode) Root 🥕 with Walker⚡️ Is Bitcoin in a bear market? When will we hit the bottom? How long until bitcoin hits $1M? Walker sits down with Bitcoin analyst Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term. CHAPTERS: 00:00 TRAILER: A Bitcoin Bear Market? 01:54 Current Vibe Check on Bitcoin 11:14 ETF Holdings and Institutional Adoption 17:17 The Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin 22:14 ETFs and Retail Demand 27:30 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles 36:23 Comparing Bitcoin to Prior Cycles 41:37 Diminishing Returns and Gold’s Price Action 50:41 What a Broken Bitcoin Spiral Looks Like 57:54 Measuring Bitcoin in Fiat 1:04:24 DCAing into Bitcoin

THE Bitcoin Podcast

10,535 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."

Sense Receptor

136,648 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $79K. Now everyone thinks the bull market is back. But almost nobody understands what actually triggered the move. It started in U.S. Treasuries. The Treasury DOUBLED the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks: $2B → at least $4B per operation. Long-term yields immediately dropped. Then Bitcoin moved: $65,400 → $69,500 More than $4,000 almost instantly. Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was back in the conversation. Bitcoin kept moving: $69,500 → $79,000 And by then the short squeeze was doing the rest. Leveraged shorts were getting destroyed. Forced buying pushed BTC even higher. $4 BILLION has now been liquidated in just 48 hours. So the chain reaction was simple: TREASURY EXPANDS BUYBACKS ↓ YIELDS FALL ↓ TRUMP REVIVES CRYPTO HOPIUM ↓ BITCOIN PUMPS ↓ SHORTS GET LIQUIDATED ↓ FORCED BUYING SENDS BTC TO $79K But here’s what everyone is missing: This is NOT QE. The Fed did NOT turn the money printer back on. And while everyone is celebrating the pump, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction. The latest FOMC minutes showed a September RATE HIKE is still on the table. That is not the macro setup I expect at the beginning of a clean Bitcoin bull run. And we’ve seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied. Everyone thought the bear market was over. Then the bull trap failed and BTC collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief that the bottom was already in. And macro is even worse now. War risk is still unresolved. Oil remains elevated. The energy shock is not gone. Now there is one level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. Reaching it means nothing. HOLDING it does. If Bitcoin reaches $83K-$85K and gets rejected, the bull trap remains intact. If it breaks above and actually holds, then the structure changes. Until that happens: MY PLAN HASN’T CHANGED. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $79K. Now everyone thinks the bull market is back. But almost nobody understands what actually triggered the move. It started in U.S. Treasuries. The Treasury DOUBLED the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks: $2B → at least $4B per operation. Long-term yields immediately dropped. Then Bitcoin moved: $65,400 → $69,500 More than $4,000 almost instantly. Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was back in the conversation. Bitcoin kept moving: $69,500 → $79,000 And by then the short squeeze was doing the rest. Leveraged shorts were getting destroyed. Forced buying pushed BTC even higher. $4 BILLION has now been liquidated in just 48 hours. So the chain reaction was simple: TREASURY EXPANDS BUYBACKS ↓ YIELDS FALL ↓ TRUMP REVIVES CRYPTO HOPIUM ↓ BITCOIN PUMPS ↓ SHORTS GET LIQUIDATED ↓ FORCED BUYING SENDS BTC TO $79K But here’s what everyone is missing: This is NOT QE. The Fed did NOT turn the money printer back on. And while everyone is celebrating the pump, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction. The latest FOMC minutes showed a September RATE HIKE is still on the table. That is not the macro setup I expect at the beginning of a clean Bitcoin bull run. And we’ve seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied. Everyone thought the bear market was over. Then the bull trap failed and BTC collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief that the bottom was already in. And macro is even worse now. War risk is still unresolved. Oil remains elevated. The energy shock is not gone. Now there is one level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. Reaching it means nothing. HOLDING it does. If Bitcoin reaches $83K-$85K and gets rejected, the bull trap remains intact. If it breaks above and actually holds, then the structure changes. Until that happens: MY PLAN HASN’T CHANGED. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

478,447 просмотров • 5 дней назад

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.

Mason

141,126 просмотров • 1 год назад

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Steven Lubka ☀️

29,280 просмотров • 1 год назад

The hardest part of the cycle is still ahead. BTC is already down roughly 49% from its ATH. Most people think the worst is behind. But that's not true. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. Now the final phase is starting, and that's the one that usually creates the real cycle bottom. Here's what I'm watching: $62K-$63K is the key line. BTC has defended it every time so far. Lose it, and I expect a move into the mid-$50Ks. The real bottom zone sits around $45K-$49K, where the 200-week MA and realized price historically converge near major cycle lows. The timing also fits. Four-year cycle structure, on-chain data and broader market positioning all point toward October-December 2026. That's when I expect maximum fear. When everyone starts saying Bitcoin is dead. And historically, that's exactly when the real bottom starts forming. I called the recent Bitcoin dump, $126k top in October 2025, and $15k bottom in November 2022. If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too. Follow now. I'll call every major move.

The hardest part of the cycle is still ahead. BTC is already down roughly 49% from its ATH. Most people think the worst is behind. But that's not true. Two phases of this bear market are already complete. Now the final phase is starting, and that's the one that usually creates the real cycle bottom. Here's what I'm watching: $62K-$63K is the key line. BTC has defended it every time so far. Lose it, and I expect a move into the mid-$50Ks. The real bottom zone sits around $45K-$49K, where the 200-week MA and realized price historically converge near major cycle lows. The timing also fits. Four-year cycle structure, on-chain data and broader market positioning all point toward October-December 2026. That's when I expect maximum fear. When everyone starts saying Bitcoin is dead. And historically, that's exactly when the real bottom starts forming. I called the recent Bitcoin dump, $126k top in October 2025, and $15k bottom in November 2022. If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too. Follow now. I'll call every major move.

Kabuki🔴

19,154 просмотров • 24 дней назад

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.

Adam Livingston

111,280 просмотров • 12 дней назад

We're deep in the bear market, and everyone is expecting deeper corrections from here. That's exactly why this is the moment to have a game plan. In this video I break down every scenario for Bitcoin, what I'll do in each one, and the exact altcoin positions I'm watching. What I cover: – Bitcoin: holding the 200-week MA right now. As long as that holds, this is the cycle bottom. If it breaks, I'll show you the levels and how I de-risk. – The STRC depeg: why the panic dragging Bitcoin down is overblown, and what's actually going on under the hood. – Ondo: why 25-27 cents is my accumulation zone if we sweep the lows. – NEAR: my largest position, and the levels where I'm adding. – Wormhole: the bullish divergence I'm tracking for a potential double. We're hitting the same bottoming levels we saw in 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2022. Accumulating here is the key part of this entire market period. Full breakdown 👇🏼

We're deep in the bear market, and everyone is expecting deeper corrections from here. That's exactly why this is the moment to have a game plan. In this video I break down every scenario for Bitcoin, what I'll do in each one, and the exact altcoin positions I'm watching. What I cover: – Bitcoin: holding the 200-week MA right now. As long as that holds, this is the cycle bottom. If it breaks, I'll show you the levels and how I de-risk. – The STRC depeg: why the panic dragging Bitcoin down is overblown, and what's actually going on under the hood. – Ondo: why 25-27 cents is my accumulation zone if we sweep the lows. – NEAR: my largest position, and the levels where I'm adding. – Wormhole: the bullish divergence I'm tracking for a potential double. We're hitting the same bottoming levels we saw in 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2022. Accumulating here is the key part of this entire market period. Full breakdown 👇🏼

Michaël van de Poppe

34,763 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant

Michaël van de Poppe

527,636 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

EVERYONE IS BEARISH. EVERYONE IS CALLING FOR LOWER TARGETS. BITCOIN IS “DONE” ,THAT’S WHAT THEY SAY. BUT LOOK AROUND. THERE’S NOT A SINGLE BEARISH NEWS STORY. EVERY FUNDAMENTAL IS BULLISH. EVERY INSTITUTION IS BUYING. THE U.S. PRESIDENT IS BULLISH ON BITCOIN. ADOPTION IS GROWING FASTER THAN EVER. THE ONLY THING THAT’S DOWN IS PRICE. AND THAT’S EXACTLY HOW THEY PLAY YOU. THEY CRASH THE MARKET TO MAKE YOU FEAR. THEY SHAKE YOU OUT. THEY TAKE YOUR COINS. SENTIMENT IS DEAD. TIMELINES ARE FULL OF BEARS. THIS IS MAX PAIN. THIS IS WHERE BITCOIN BOTTOMS. IF YOU STILL THINK THIS IS A BEAR MARKET, YOU DESERVE TO MISS WHAT’S COMING. BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC. THIS IS YOUR LAST WARNING. I'VE BEEN HERE FOR 10+ YEARS, AND I'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON EVERYTHING LIKE I ALWAYS DO. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS SO YOU DON'T MISS ANY INFORMATION, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

EVERYONE IS BEARISH. EVERYONE IS CALLING FOR LOWER TARGETS. BITCOIN IS “DONE” ,THAT’S WHAT THEY SAY. BUT LOOK AROUND. THERE’S NOT A SINGLE BEARISH NEWS STORY. EVERY FUNDAMENTAL IS BULLISH. EVERY INSTITUTION IS BUYING. THE U.S. PRESIDENT IS BULLISH ON BITCOIN. ADOPTION IS GROWING FASTER THAN EVER. THE ONLY THING THAT’S DOWN IS PRICE. AND THAT’S EXACTLY HOW THEY PLAY YOU. THEY CRASH THE MARKET TO MAKE YOU FEAR. THEY SHAKE YOU OUT. THEY TAKE YOUR COINS. SENTIMENT IS DEAD. TIMELINES ARE FULL OF BEARS. THIS IS MAX PAIN. THIS IS WHERE BITCOIN BOTTOMS. IF YOU STILL THINK THIS IS A BEAR MARKET, YOU DESERVE TO MISS WHAT’S COMING. BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC. THIS IS YOUR LAST WARNING. I'VE BEEN HERE FOR 10+ YEARS, AND I'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON EVERYTHING LIKE I ALWAYS DO. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS SO YOU DON'T MISS ANY INFORMATION, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.

Crypto Fergani

22,055 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from DOTSWAP•DOTSWAP - Official has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott | Bound from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from DOTSWAP•DOTSWAP - Official has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott | Bound from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Leonidas 🧡 $DOG

63,009 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

🔥BITCOIN MOONING - MSTR GOING TO $1,000 - EASILY!🔥 THE STRUCTURE IS UNBREAKABLE. THE BEARS HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED BECAUSE THEY HAVE LOST. Here I break down the completely deranged mechanism by which Strategy could grind its way to $1,000 per share while the average finance guy is still clutching a discounted cash flow model like it’s a rosary during an electrical fire. We go deep into: MSTR issuance STRC acceleration Bitcoin absorption CEBE math drag compression amplification ...and the deeply offensive possibility that the market is still dramatically underestimating how violent this structure could become if Bitcoin keeps repricing higher. The bear case at this point is basically a support group for people who saw the machine, heard the gears turning, watched it inhale billions of dollars and tens of thousands of Bitcoin, then concluded it was “too dilutive” because their brain was assembled at a regional airport:

🔥BITCOIN MOONING - MSTR GOING TO $1,000 - EASILY!🔥 THE STRUCTURE IS UNBREAKABLE. THE BEARS HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED BECAUSE THEY HAVE LOST. Here I break down the completely deranged mechanism by which Strategy could grind its way to $1,000 per share while the average finance guy is still clutching a discounted cash flow model like it’s a rosary during an electrical fire. We go deep into: MSTR issuance STRC acceleration Bitcoin absorption CEBE math drag compression amplification ...and the deeply offensive possibility that the market is still dramatically underestimating how violent this structure could become if Bitcoin keeps repricing higher. The bear case at this point is basically a support group for people who saw the machine, heard the gears turning, watched it inhale billions of dollars and tens of thousands of Bitcoin, then concluded it was “too dilutive” because their brain was assembled at a regional airport:

Adam Livingston

25,431 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад