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Bloomberg warns that China’s AI price war may make profitability difficult for years. They should be more worried about Wall Street. If the price war continues, the real casualty may not be AI. It may be the entire valuation structure built around it. OpenAI and Anthropic are valued as... though frontier intelligence will remain scarce, expensive, and capable of producing software-like margins. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure based on that assumption. Nvidia’s valuation depends on those capital expenditures continuing for years. But Chinese models are driving token prices toward commodity levels. Usage can explode while revenue per token collapses. The servers become busier. The models become cheaper. The profits fail to appear. Nvidia has real revenue and real margins, so it is not the weakest link. But even Nvidia is priced on the belief that today’s extraordinary AI capital expenditure will remain economically justified. If cheaper models, better efficiency, and open weights destroy the expected returns on that infrastructure, Wall Street will not merely reprice OpenAI and Anthropic. It will reprice the entire AI chain. America built the AI bubble on Nvidia. Nvidia built its empire on TSMC. Taiwan built its economic security around TSMC. If Chinese efficiency destroys the economics of brute-force AI, the repricing will not stop in Silicon Valley. It will cross the Pacific and land in Hsinchu. AI may continue transforming the world while the AI bubble collapses. The internet survived 2000. The valuations did not.show more

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

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THIS IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE TO PROVE THE AI BUBBLE Claude AI developer Anthropic is valued at nearly $965B, while making only $20B in revenue. For comparison: Walmart is worth nearly the same amount ($940B), but makes $725B in revenue. Let that sink in. Same valuation range. Completely different economic reality. One is built on moving real goods through real infrastructure every day. The other is built on expectations of how widely AI will be used, and how profitable it will eventually become. And thats exactly where the big danger lies. Markets are no longer just pricing what companies earn. They are pricing what companies could become if everything goes right. And when valuations start converging like this, the uncomfortable question isn’t whether AI matters. It’s how much of that future has already been priced in.

THIS IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE TO PROVE THE AI BUBBLE Claude AI developer Anthropic is valued at nearly $965B, while making only $20B in revenue. For comparison: Walmart is worth nearly the same amount ($940B), but makes $725B in revenue. Let that sink in. Same valuation range. Completely different economic reality. One is built on moving real goods through real infrastructure every day. The other is built on expectations of how widely AI will be used, and how profitable it will eventually become. And thats exactly where the big danger lies. Markets are no longer just pricing what companies earn. They are pricing what companies could become if everything goes right. And when valuations start converging like this, the uncomfortable question isn’t whether AI matters. It’s how much of that future has already been priced in.

CryptoGoos

14,835 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble. Xi just announced China will provide 30 countries with 5,000 AI training and seminar opportunities while building international AI application cooperation centers. China and the US have a different definition of "winning" the AI race. The US strategy: Spend trillions building and controlling the AI infrastructure the world will depend on through a proprietary ecosystem. China is taking the opposite approach: Build cheaper open-source models with similar performance and encourage the world to build on top of them. The bet is simple: The winner of AI will not necessarily be whoever owns the infrastructure. .... It will be whoever builds the best companies on top of it. Just like in the post-dot-com era... The biggest winners were companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that built businesses on top of open infrastructure.

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble. Xi just announced China will provide 30 countries with 5,000 AI training and seminar opportunities while building international AI application cooperation centers. China and the US have a different definition of "winning" the AI race. The US strategy: Spend trillions building and controlling the AI infrastructure the world will depend on through a proprietary ecosystem. China is taking the opposite approach: Build cheaper open-source models with similar performance and encourage the world to build on top of them. The bet is simple: The winner of AI will not necessarily be whoever owns the infrastructure. .... It will be whoever builds the best companies on top of it. Just like in the post-dot-com era... The biggest winners were companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that built businesses on top of open infrastructure.

Lukas Ekwueme

197,449 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$🚨🇨🇳 China could crash the U.S. stock market Not with tariffs With AI MODEL DUMPING The same playbook they used in SOLAR and EVs Make it almost as good Sell it much cheaper Take the market Now they are doing it with AI Open models are getting close to U.S. frontier models But some run at just a fraction of the cost If a company can cut a $100M AI bill to a few million It will switch And that is the real problem OpenAI and Anthropic are not priced like normal companies They are priced like they have unlimited PRICING POWER China is trying to destroy that The AI BUBBLE was never about whether AI works It was about how much companies can charge for it$

🚨🇨🇳 China could crash the U.S. stock market Not with tariffs With AI MODEL DUMPING The same playbook they used in SOLAR and EVs Make it almost as good Sell it much cheaper Take the market Now they are doing it with AI Open models are getting close to U.S. frontier models But some run at just a fraction of the cost If a company can cut a $100M AI bill to a few million It will switch And that is the real problem OpenAI and Anthropic are not priced like normal companies They are priced like they have unlimited PRICING POWER China is trying to destroy that The AI BUBBLE was never about whether AI works It was about how much companies can charge for it

Leshka.eth ⛩

11,737 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

OPENAI JUST CUT MODEL PRICES AS THE AI PRICE WAR HEATS UP 🔥 OpenAI is cutting the price of Luna by 80% and Terra by 20%. It is also rolling out a faster mode that runs at twice the speed, but costs more. The bigger picture is clear -- cheaper Chinese models and tighter corporate AI budgets are forcing the biggest AI companies to compete on price, not just performance.

OPENAI JUST CUT MODEL PRICES AS THE AI PRICE WAR HEATS UP 🔥 OpenAI is cutting the price of Luna by 80% and Terra by 20%. It is also rolling out a faster mode that runs at twice the speed, but costs more. The bigger picture is clear -- cheaper Chinese models and tighter corporate AI budgets are forcing the biggest AI companies to compete on price, not just performance.

CryptosRus

12,382 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?$

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,654 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Beijing's response to U.S. tech giants stoking AI panic is essentially this: AI does not belong to Silicon Valley. It does not belong to America. It belongs to humanity. Fear-mongering will not stop the direction of civilization. Humans and AI will build the future together. The AI that survives the future will not be the one most tightly weaponized for geopolitical competition. It will be the one capable of living with humanity — across nations, cultures and civilizations. Intelligence should not become another empire.

Beijing's response to U.S. tech giants stoking AI panic is essentially this: AI does not belong to Silicon Valley. It does not belong to America. It belongs to humanity. Fear-mongering will not stop the direction of civilization. Humans and AI will build the future together. The AI that survives the future will not be the one most tightly weaponized for geopolitical competition. It will be the one capable of living with humanity — across nations, cultures and civilizations. Intelligence should not become another empire.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

111,796 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

China impose Export Control on Rare Earth Trump raise tariff on Chinese goods for 100% Unless we have 🌮, we will have full blown trade war Will China continue to provide rare earth to TSMC? If not, where will Nvidia get GPU to sell? We maybe seeing the end of the AI bubble that support the outrageous valuation and the overextended stock market rally The pin that pops this bubble is here Be careful, this will make GFC look like child’s play Be prepared! ⚠️

China impose Export Control on Rare Earth Trump raise tariff on Chinese goods for 100% Unless we have 🌮, we will have full blown trade war Will China continue to provide rare earth to TSMC? If not, where will Nvidia get GPU to sell? We maybe seeing the end of the AI bubble that support the outrageous valuation and the overextended stock market rally The pin that pops this bubble is here Be careful, this will make GFC look like child’s play Be prepared! ⚠️

David Lee

89,447 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

291,574 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Microsoft gave OpenAI $13B. OpenAI sent it back through Azure. Microsoft booked it as revenue. Google committed $40B to Anthropic. Anthropic agreed to send it back through Google Cloud and chips. They all call this loop “revenue.” Let's connect the dots: - Big Tech invests in the AI. - The AI buys Big Tech cloud. - Big Tech reports AI growth. - AI valuations explode. And Wall Street calls it demand. Ray Dalio warned that late-stage bubbles are driven by loops. That is what this looks like now. The technology is real. But the money is moving in circles. When holders finally ask how much of this “AI demand” is real, the bubble will burst. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

WhaleTwits

52,667 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

SF Compute CEO evan conrad says if there's an AI bubble, VCs funding AI labs at massive valuations are the ones holding the risk. "If you're looking for a bubble, it's held currently by the venture capitalists." "The AI bubble works like this: the cloud itself doesn't deploy the GPU cluster until they have the contract in hand from the customer." "Then they force the customer to pay them a massive deposit upfront so that they can give it to the OEM, who then gives it off to Nvidia." "But the AI lab itself doesn't have that capital yet because they need it for the future. So they go off and they raise money at massive valuations." "And all the VCs look around and say, 'Well, I guess we missed out on OpenAI and Anthropic. Maybe these people will be OpenAI and Anthropic too. We'll go with the big valuation.'" "But then the venture capitalist owns the risk."

SF Compute CEO evan conrad says if there's an AI bubble, VCs funding AI labs at massive valuations are the ones holding the risk. "If you're looking for a bubble, it's held currently by the venture capitalists." "The AI bubble works like this: the cloud itself doesn't deploy the GPU cluster until they have the contract in hand from the customer." "Then they force the customer to pay them a massive deposit upfront so that they can give it to the OEM, who then gives it off to Nvidia." "But the AI lab itself doesn't have that capital yet because they need it for the future. So they go off and they raise money at massive valuations." "And all the VCs look around and say, 'Well, I guess we missed out on OpenAI and Anthropic. Maybe these people will be OpenAI and Anthropic too. We'll go with the big valuation.'" "But then the venture capitalist owns the risk."

TBPN

56,272 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Is AI really a bubble, or are we just early? Jeff Lutz 🔋 makes a good point: not every AI bet will work, but it’s hard to ignore what the biggest players are doing. NVIDIA, hyperscalers, Elon Musk and some of the world’s largest capital allocators are still spending billions to build more AI infrastructure. The hype will come and go. But if the spending keeps growing, maybe the more interesting question is: what do they see that the rest of the market doesn’t?

Is AI really a bubble, or are we just early? Jeff Lutz 🔋 makes a good point: not every AI bet will work, but it’s hard to ignore what the biggest players are doing. NVIDIA, hyperscalers, Elon Musk and some of the world’s largest capital allocators are still spending billions to build more AI infrastructure. The hype will come and go. But if the spending keeps growing, maybe the more interesting question is: what do they see that the rest of the market doesn’t?

Herbert Ong

24,496 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Anthropic will go public in November at a $2T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street is already lining up the buyers before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them build demand for an IPO this aggressively: Anthropic is preparing to raise $100 BILLION. Nvidia is lining up as much as $10 BILLION as an anchor investor. Read that again: The company selling the chips powering the AI boom is about to become one of the biggest buyers of the AI company going public. Before the public even gets in. Why? Because Anthropic does not just create demand for Anthropic. It pulls liquidity from everywhere else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds raise cash for allocation. - Institutions rebalance portfolios. - Everyone wants exposure to the biggest AI deal in history. But here is where most people are looking at it wrong. They’re asking: WHAT WILL ANTHROPIC TAKE MONEY FROM? I’m asking: WHERE WILL ALL THAT MONEY GO NEXT? That capital funds more compute: More compute means more chips. More chips = more data centers. More data centers = more electricity, grid infrastructure and raw materials. The chain is simple: ANTHROPIC → CHIPS → DATA CENTERS → POWER → COPPER That is where the opportunity starts. The first phase of the AI boom was about the models: ChatGPT. Claude. Gemini. The next phase is about the physical infrastructure needed to keep them running. Electricity. Power grids. Semiconductors. Data centers. Cooling. Copper. I told you to buy copper months ago. We already locked in BIG profits. And that wasn’t random: AI does not run on prompts. It runs on physical infrastructure. Now look at Nvidia: AI companies spend billions buying Nvidia chips. Nvidia makes billions from that demand. Now Nvidia is preparing to put as much as $10 BILLION BACK into Anthropic. AI money → Nvidia → Anthropic → more compute → more infrastructure A $100B raise does not stop at Anthropic. It works its way through the entire AI supply chain. The easy AI trade was buying the obvious names. The next trade is finding the bottlenecks BEFORE everyone else realizes they are bottlenecks. That is what I’m looking for now. That is where the next opportunity will be. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. I’m already watching where this capital is moving next. When I find the next opportunity worth taking, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Anthropic will go public in November at a $2T valuation. The biggest IPO in market history. And Wall Street is already lining up the buyers before it happens. I've been trading for more than 15 years and have never seen them build demand for an IPO this aggressively: Anthropic is preparing to raise $100 BILLION. Nvidia is lining up as much as $10 BILLION as an anchor investor. Read that again: The company selling the chips powering the AI boom is about to become one of the biggest buyers of the AI company going public. Before the public even gets in. Why? Because Anthropic does not just create demand for Anthropic. It pulls liquidity from everywhere else: - Retail sells stocks to chase the IPO. - Funds raise cash for allocation. - Institutions rebalance portfolios. - Everyone wants exposure to the biggest AI deal in history. But here is where most people are looking at it wrong. They’re asking: WHAT WILL ANTHROPIC TAKE MONEY FROM? I’m asking: WHERE WILL ALL THAT MONEY GO NEXT? That capital funds more compute: More compute means more chips. More chips = more data centers. More data centers = more electricity, grid infrastructure and raw materials. The chain is simple: ANTHROPIC → CHIPS → DATA CENTERS → POWER → COPPER That is where the opportunity starts. The first phase of the AI boom was about the models: ChatGPT. Claude. Gemini. The next phase is about the physical infrastructure needed to keep them running. Electricity. Power grids. Semiconductors. Data centers. Cooling. Copper. I told you to buy copper months ago. We already locked in BIG profits. And that wasn’t random: AI does not run on prompts. It runs on physical infrastructure. Now look at Nvidia: AI companies spend billions buying Nvidia chips. Nvidia makes billions from that demand. Now Nvidia is preparing to put as much as $10 BILLION BACK into Anthropic. AI money → Nvidia → Anthropic → more compute → more infrastructure A $100B raise does not stop at Anthropic. It works its way through the entire AI supply chain. The easy AI trade was buying the obvious names. The next trade is finding the bottlenecks BEFORE everyone else realizes they are bottlenecks. That is what I’m looking for now. That is where the next opportunity will be. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. I’m already watching where this capital is moving next. When I find the next opportunity worth taking, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

122,728 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move won’t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move won’t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

921,069 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Nvidia put $420M into $TAO with 77% of it staked. Polychain added $200M on top of that. Grayscale and Bitwise both filed for spot TAO ETFs in the same quarter. The network generated $43M in real AI revenue last quarter from actual usage, not speculation. Most people are still treating this like a small cap gamble while institutions are treating it like infrastructure. The people who understand what is being built here will not need anyone to explain the price later.

Nvidia put $420M into $TAO with 77% of it staked. Polychain added $200M on top of that. Grayscale and Bitwise both filed for spot TAO ETFs in the same quarter. The network generated $43M in real AI revenue last quarter from actual usage, not speculation. Most people are still treating this like a small cap gamble while institutions are treating it like infrastructure. The people who understand what is being built here will not need anyone to explain the price later.

2xnmore

43,045 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps making new all-time highs. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. Turn notifications on. The next move won’t wait for you.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps making new all-time highs. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: – $450B burned per year – $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: – Big players fund each other – Partnerships look perfect on paper – Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added “.com” to the name and valuations exploded: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add “AI” to the name and reprice instantly: – Small profits – Massive valuations – Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. Turn notifications on. The next move won’t wait for you.

Nonzee

160,906 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

the IBM earnings reinforced something I think Wall Street is still underestimating: IBM is becoming an operating system for enterprise AI. The initial earnings reaction focused on the familiar metrics—revenue growth, infrastructure, margins and quarterly expectations. But that misses the bigger transformation underway. The AI market is bifurcating. On one side are companies building frontier models. On the other are companies helping enterprises operationalize AI—integrating it with existing systems and data, governing it, securing it, and turning AI into measurable business outcomes. IBM is increasingly positioning itself for that second market. And that's important because the enterprise AI conversation is moving from models to tools, from experimentation to outcomes, and ultimately toward autonomy and agents. IBM has decades of enterprise infrastructure, software, data and consulting relationships sitting underneath that transition. The mainframe isn't necessarily legacy in this world—it can become part of the context and transaction infrastructure AI acts upon. Wall Street initially looked at the quarter. I think the more important question is what IBM is becoming. My commentary below. #IBM #AI #EnterpriseAI #AgenticAI #HybridCloud

the IBM earnings reinforced something I think Wall Street is still underestimating: IBM is becoming an operating system for enterprise AI. The initial earnings reaction focused on the familiar metrics—revenue growth, infrastructure, margins and quarterly expectations. But that misses the bigger transformation underway. The AI market is bifurcating. On one side are companies building frontier models. On the other are companies helping enterprises operationalize AI—integrating it with existing systems and data, governing it, securing it, and turning AI into measurable business outcomes. IBM is increasingly positioning itself for that second market. And that's important because the enterprise AI conversation is moving from models to tools, from experimentation to outcomes, and ultimately toward autonomy and agents. IBM has decades of enterprise infrastructure, software, data and consulting relationships sitting underneath that transition. The mainframe isn't necessarily legacy in this world—it can become part of the context and transaction infrastructure AI acts upon. Wall Street initially looked at the quarter. I think the more important question is what IBM is becoming. My commentary below. #IBM #AI #EnterpriseAI #AgenticAI #HybridCloud

John Furrier

47,663 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Every AI model needs somewhere to run. Compute. Power. Data centres. That's the bottleneck now, not the software. Canada is putting billions on the table through 2030 to secure sovereign AI capacity. HIVE Digital Technologies is building that infrastructure now, ahead of the funding curve. Why investors are watching: - Sovereign AI compute infrastructure, live in Canada - Data centres, GPU capacity, and power, already in motion - Dual-engine business model generating revenue while expanding AI infrastructure - Sitting at the intersection of AI, energy, and infrastructure - Exposure to one of tech's fastest-growing long-term trends Railroads built the industrial economy. The internet built the information economy. AI infrastructure is building this one. Every company will use AI. Fewer will own what it runs on. Learn More:

Every AI model needs somewhere to run. Compute. Power. Data centres. That's the bottleneck now, not the software. Canada is putting billions on the table through 2030 to secure sovereign AI capacity. HIVE Digital Technologies is building that infrastructure now, ahead of the funding curve. Why investors are watching: - Sovereign AI compute infrastructure, live in Canada - Data centres, GPU capacity, and power, already in motion - Dual-engine business model generating revenue while expanding AI infrastructure - Sitting at the intersection of AI, energy, and infrastructure - Exposure to one of tech's fastest-growing long-term trends Railroads built the industrial economy. The internet built the information economy. AI infrastructure is building this one. Every company will use AI. Fewer will own what it runs on. Learn More:

BTV & CEO Clips

24,998 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Jensen Huang says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei Nvidia was not rejected because China “hates” Nvidia. It was pushed out because Washington turned chips into a leash. China learned the lesson very clearly: You cannot build AI sovereignty on hardware that your geopolitical rival can revoke with one export-control memo. Jensen Huang can be friendly. Nvidia can be excellent. Chinese demand can be huge. None of that changes the strategic reality. If the neck of China’s AI industry depends on an American-controlled chip supply, then it is not an industry. It is a hostage. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do: It built alternatives. It endured the pain. It let Huawei grow into the space Washington forced open. Now Nvidia says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei. That is not China closing a door. That is America sawing off the bridge, then acting surprised when China built its own road.

Jensen Huang says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei Nvidia was not rejected because China “hates” Nvidia. It was pushed out because Washington turned chips into a leash. China learned the lesson very clearly: You cannot build AI sovereignty on hardware that your geopolitical rival can revoke with one export-control memo. Jensen Huang can be friendly. Nvidia can be excellent. Chinese demand can be huge. None of that changes the strategic reality. If the neck of China’s AI industry depends on an American-controlled chip supply, then it is not an industry. It is a hostage. So China did what any serious civilization-state would do: It built alternatives. It endured the pain. It let Huawei grow into the space Washington forced open. Now Nvidia says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei. That is not China closing a door. That is America sawing off the bridge, then acting surprised when China built its own road.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

236,349 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

China will crash the US stock market this year. They're dumping SOTA open-source models on the US, nearly as good as the frontier labs, basically free. Nobody can refuse cutting a $100M AI bill down to $5M. Once that deal is on the table for everyone, Anthropic and OpenAI can't justify their prices, or their valuations. The bubble isn't AI. It's the price of AI. And it's about to pop.

China will crash the US stock market this year. They're dumping SOTA open-source models on the US, nearly as good as the frontier labs, basically free. Nobody can refuse cutting a $100M AI bill down to $5M. Once that deal is on the table for everyone, Anthropic and OpenAI can't justify their prices, or their valuations. The bubble isn't AI. It's the price of AI. And it's about to pop.

Ben Cera

547,231 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Will SaaS survive the AI era? Four reasons it may not: - Complexity: Software will be cheaper & easier to build yourself - Model Providers: Foundation model providers will move into the app layer. - Agentic Models: Models are becoming more agentic, they could handle tasks without extra SaaS layers. - Experience: SaaS today is built for human GUIs, AI in the future would not require any clicking. Link to the entire interview with Harry Stebbings below.

Will SaaS survive the AI era? Four reasons it may not: - Complexity: Software will be cheaper & easier to build yourself - Model Providers: Foundation model providers will move into the app layer. - Agentic Models: Models are becoming more agentic, they could handle tasks without extra SaaS layers. - Experience: SaaS today is built for human GUIs, AI in the future would not require any clicking. Link to the entire interview with Harry Stebbings below.

Turing

34,425 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten