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BREAKING: France just quietly started a countdown that affects every crypto holder. Its national cyber agency will no longer certify any security product. Without quantum-safe encryption after 2027. The announcement never mentions crypto. Not once. But here is what it doesn't have to say. Bitcoin and Ethereum both run...

71,798 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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People are losing their minds over the idea of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin, but the panic is largely detached from reality. If you listen to Eric Yakes, the fear-mongering is completely off base. The theoretical threat relies on quantum computers factoring large prime numbers fast enough to crack current cryptography. To date, the largest number a quantum computer has successfully factored is 15. "Neven's Law" says quantum power grows at a doubly exponential rate. It's a projection people are using to raise money for their projects, rather than a measurement we are seeing in real life. Compare that to Moore's Law, which we actually watched happen in real time. While physical qubits are increasing and error rates are slowly declining, there is a massive technical hurdle: error rates scale exponentially with qubit count. Adding more power creates more "noise," making the machine harder to stabilize. "But institutional capital is worried!" That's fine. Institutional capital has been wrong about Bitcoin for a decade. If they're selling on quantum FUD, that's cheap sats for the rest of us. Bitcoin devs have been on this for years and are taking steps to mitigate the risk. BIP-360 was just merged into the Bitcoin GitHub repository and Chaincode Labs has published plenty of serious research. If a real threat emerges, every stakeholder is incentivized to adopt quantum-resistant signatures and consensus won't be the obstacle people think it is. Start paying attention to what's actually being built and take your finger off the panic button. Full breakdown 👇

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Joe Rogan just said what nobody in finance wants to hear about quantum computing. Rogan: “It’s over. Like there’s no privacy.” He’s not being hyperbolic. He’s being early. Every dollar in every bank account on Earth is protected by one thing. Math. Not vaults. Not guards. Not governments. Math problems that current computers can’t solve fast enough to break. That’s it. RSA encryption. Elliptic curve cryptography. The same math guarding your savings account guards sovereign wealth funds. Defense networks. Nuclear launch protocols. Quantum computing doesn’t pick the lock. It removes the door. A quantum system at sufficient scale breaks RSA encryption in hours. The same problem would take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe. This isn’t theoretical. Google, IBM, and China are racing toward fault-tolerant quantum systems. The timeline isn’t a century. It’s a decade. Maybe less. Rogan: “I think the real problem is the financial market. It’s all numbers, right? It’s all just ones and zeros.” He’s right. And it’s worse than he thinks. The first entity to reach that threshold doesn’t gain an advantage. They gain access. Every encrypted financial transaction ever recorded. Every classified document. Every crypto wallet. Every private key. Every medical record. Every secret ever sent over a wire becomes a postcard. China holds more quantum computing patents than any nation on Earth. Their research runs without public oversight or shareholder pressure. They’ve been harvesting encrypted Western data for years. Intelligence agencies have a name for the strategy. Harvest now, decrypt later. Rogan: “If somebody controls that before we do, if somebody breaks through with this type of technology and then just shuts all the other ones off.” If a foreign power achieves this before post-quantum encryption is deployed, there is no countermove. You can’t un-read stolen data. You can’t restore trust in a system whose entire security model became fiction overnight. People talk about AI as the defining technology of the century. They might be wrong. AI needs data and compute and infrastructure to be dangerous. Quantum computing just needs to exist. One breakthrough. One machine. One moment where the math that protects everything stops being hard enough. Most people heard Rogan and thought exaggeration. The ones paying attention heard a countdown. We built the entire modern world on one assumption. That certain math problems would stay unsolvable forever. Nobody promised us that.

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