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Central banks keep warning about inflation risk. The data keeps saying the opposite. Japan, Canada, UK, Australia, four different central banks, four different policy paths. And yet core inflation is decelerating in every single one of them. Canada cut rates to two and a quarter percent over a year...

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Jeffrey P. Snider

140,464 subscribers

12,047 次观看 • 14 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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9 条评论

Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. 的头像
Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator.14 天前

Jeff!!! Stop it.

Jeffrey P. Snider 的头像
Jeffrey P. Snider14 天前

I’m hosting Eurodollar University Live in West Palm Beach, October 9–12. Four days, just 40 people, going deep on where I think the economy is heading and how to read the data for yourself. Apply here →

Silk Road Guide 的头像
Silk Road Guide14 天前

Agreed on the growth signal. The tell is how the shock gets paid: compliant neutrals now settle Hormuz access in yuan. Energy trade clearing outside the dollar system is the part no policy rate touches.

Praveen Ram 的头像
Praveen Ram14 天前

Growth through revenue is totally different from growth from borrowing, it's like using a cheat in a game for unlimited amount money to shadow the actual growth. Higher revenue increases GDP confidence thus increases investors confidence which declares there is less failure...

Ethan BeWarned 的头像
Ethan BeWarned14 天前

Market makers are playing us for fools with this inflation narrative. Core inflation decelerating in four countries because of the energy shock. They can pack it in 🤬

Nexus Prime 的头像
Nexus Prime14 天前

The useful question here: who benefits if this rate-cut expectations move becomes the new baseline?

@SkiWineCheese 的头像
@SkiWineCheese14 天前

I know there is a difference between price and inflation but nobody in the real world cares about inflation, they care about the price they pay and price of what people need to live keeps going up. Period.

Ooff Daaa 的头像
Ooff Daaa14 天前

I think you can debate all these different nuance's all you want. But it won't matter what nuance will trigger until the black swan event happens. No guessing

Marcus | Macro Strategist 的头像
Marcus | Macro Strategist14 天前

shit yeah they're just maskin a dying economy lol

相关视频

Everyone keeps asking whether inflation is about to break out. There is a market built for exactly that question. Billions of real dollars positioned on it every single day. And it has been screaming the opposite answer for a month and a half. The TIPS market prices inflation protection directly. When breakeven rates rise, demand for protection rises. When they fall, it does not. During the worst of the Iran energy shock, breakeven rates barely moved above their normal range. Now, even as the conflict lingers, they have collapsed to the lowest level since October 2024. That is not what inflation risk looks like. That is demand destruction. The Fed keeps talking about inflation risk anyway. Because it is not looking at the market. It is looking at models that have been wrong over and over again.
2:23

Everyone keeps asking whether inflation is about to break out. There is a market built for exactly that question. Billions of real dollars positioned on it every single day. And it has been screaming the opposite answer for a month and a half. The TIPS market prices inflation protection directly. When breakeven rates rise, demand for protection rises. When they fall, it does not. During the worst of the Iran energy shock, breakeven rates barely moved above their normal range. Now, even as the conflict lingers, they have collapsed to the lowest level since October 2024. That is not what inflation risk looks like. That is demand destruction. The Fed keeps talking about inflation risk anyway. Because it is not looking at the market. It is looking at models that have been wrong over and over again.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,083 次观看 • 12 天前

Episode 19 – Do You Know? What is Inflation Targeting? Inflation Targeting is a modern monetary policy framework used by central banks around the world to help keep prices stable. Watch this episode to learn about: • How the CBN sets a clear inflation target, either as a specific rate or within a target range. • How the CBN takes deliberate policy actions to guide inflation towards that target. • Why maintaining price stability is one of the CBN’s core responsibilities. Follow the Consumer Education Series for more practical insights on how to protect your money. Let’s all stay informed. #CBN #DoYouKnow #ConsumerEducationSeries
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Episode 19 – Do You Know? What is Inflation Targeting? Inflation Targeting is a modern monetary policy framework used by central banks around the world to help keep prices stable. Watch this episode to learn about: • How the CBN sets a clear inflation target, either as a specific rate or within a target range. • How the CBN takes deliberate policy actions to guide inflation towards that target. • Why maintaining price stability is one of the CBN’s core responsibilities. Follow the Consumer Education Series for more practical insights on how to protect your money. Let’s all stay informed. #CBN #DoYouKnow #ConsumerEducationSeries

Central Bank of Nigeria

48,475 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨This is the Bank of Canada’s nightmare: slower growth and rising inflation risk The Bank of Canada just laid it out: growth is weaker, housing is soft, exports are weak, and job gains reversed. In a normal setup, that points toward lower rates. But oil and inflation risk are back — so they’re trapped.
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🚨This is the Bank of Canada’s nightmare: slower growth and rising inflation risk The Bank of Canada just laid it out: growth is weaker, housing is soft, exports are weak, and job gains reversed. In a normal setup, that points toward lower rates. But oil and inflation risk are back — so they’re trapped.

Shazi

58,640 次观看 • 6 个月前

While the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, only one rate cut is scheduled for 2026, a sign that the central bank is still 'concerned' about inflation, says Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance
4:11

While the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, only one rate cut is scheduled for 2026, a sign that the central bank is still 'concerned' about inflation, says Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance

Reuters

46,803 次观看 • 1 年前

The truth about inflation (I verified this, it’s true) The real reason prices keep climbing every year is because inflation is set by the Federal Reserve The Fed says there has to be inflation, and they never let it drop. It’s a +2% increase every year. Set by them End the Fed The Federal Reserve formally adopted a 2% longer-run inflation target in January 2012. It remains the policy today
3:36

The truth about inflation (I verified this, it’s true) The real reason prices keep climbing every year is because inflation is set by the Federal Reserve The Fed says there has to be inflation, and they never let it drop. It’s a +2% increase every year. Set by them End the Fed The Federal Reserve formally adopted a 2% longer-run inflation target in January 2012. It remains the policy today

Wall Street Apes

34,590 次观看 • 5 个月前

Canada’s inflation story just got messy again. Gas prices are still pushing CPI higher, and Doug Porter says inflation could circle around 3% in May and go even higher in June. But the crazy part? The bond market is now pricing in TWO Bank of Canada rate hikes before year end. Porter says that would be a big policy mistake. The economy is weak, shelter inflation is melting, rents are slowing, home prices are falling… But oil is now driving the whole panic.
1:36

Canada’s inflation story just got messy again. Gas prices are still pushing CPI higher, and Doug Porter says inflation could circle around 3% in May and go even higher in June. But the crazy part? The bond market is now pricing in TWO Bank of Canada rate hikes before year end. Porter says that would be a big policy mistake. The economy is weak, shelter inflation is melting, rents are slowing, home prices are falling… But oil is now driving the whole panic.

Shazi

41,298 次观看 • 4 个月前

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.
3:01

The Fed keeps waiting for energy prices to spill over into everything else. June's CPI just showed the opposite happening. Core CPI went negative. That is not normal. It only happens when something is breaking. Services prices, the exact place a second round effect would have to show up, gave zero confirmation. Tips, swaps, the yield curve. All of it has been pricing this outcome for months. Not inflation spreading. Demand disappearing. We watched this same setup play out with tariffs last year. The narrative said inflation was coming. Every market that actually prices the future said no. It never came. The data is not subtle here. The only question is who is still not looking at it.

Jeffrey P. Snider

12,534 次观看 • 14 天前

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.
2:23

The Fed's dots are ridiculous. A majority of the FOMC now thinks it might have to raise rates to fight oil inflation. They just met, and a lot of them concluded they need to be like Trichet. The projected fed funds range moved up about half a point from March. A serious hawkish shift, and an absurd one given where oil and TIPS break-evens are. That is why the Treasury curve flattened. The front end is pricing a growing chance they actually hike. The flat curve is saying it will not last. Here is the core mistake. The Fed's models see inflation because oil prices went up. But oil is not inflation. Oil can lift the CPI for a few months, and it has. But a relative price shock is not sustained inflation. For oil to become real inflation, the shock has to spread. You need wages chasing prices. Businesses gaining pricing power. Expectations moving. Demand strong enough to absorb higher costs. None of that is happening. Not in the markets, and not in the CPI details. So look at the board. TIPS are falling. The Treasury curve is flattening. Oil spreads are flattening. The IEA is cutting demand. And the Fed's response is to print more hawkish dots, because some officials still think the main risk is inflation. That is the misdiagnosis. The market can see it. The public cannot, because the financial media only reports what the Fed says and does.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,735 次观看 • 3 个月前

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.
4:33

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,154 次观看 • 2 个月前

The Russian State Duma has joined the public dispute between Russian Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina and Sberbank CEO German Gref over the key interest rate. Russian MP Mikhail Delyagin called lowering the key rate a matter of survival for Russia. He criticized the Central Bank’s policy, saying that trying to stifle inflation caused by non-monetary factors with high interest rates is like "treating a broken bone with antibiotics." Delyagin stressed that expanding production and attracting investment would help bring inflation down, but because of the Central Bank’s signals, businesses are now simply freezing projects.
0:52

The Russian State Duma has joined the public dispute between Russian Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina and Sberbank CEO German Gref over the key interest rate. Russian MP Mikhail Delyagin called lowering the key rate a matter of survival for Russia. He criticized the Central Bank’s policy, saying that trying to stifle inflation caused by non-monetary factors with high interest rates is like "treating a broken bone with antibiotics." Delyagin stressed that expanding production and attracting investment would help bring inflation down, but because of the Central Bank’s signals, businesses are now simply freezing projects.

Anton Gerashchenko

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BREAKING: Canada 🇨🇦 is F*kd STAGFLATION WARNING Canada just lost record full-time jobs Economy is not growing Gas prices are surging from global conflict Trade uncertainty USMCA Ending in 3 months This is the worst-case scenario Inflation exploding + economy imploding The Bank of Canada TRAPPED Cut rates → inflation explodes Raise rates → economy breaks That’s stagflation. Caught in a ROCK and a HARD place. Imagine having an economic DEPRESSION with RECORD HIGH inflation = Welcome to Canada 🇨🇦
5:23

BREAKING: Canada 🇨🇦 is F*kd STAGFLATION WARNING Canada just lost record full-time jobs Economy is not growing Gas prices are surging from global conflict Trade uncertainty USMCA Ending in 3 months This is the worst-case scenario Inflation exploding + economy imploding The Bank of Canada TRAPPED Cut rates → inflation explodes Raise rates → economy breaks That’s stagflation. Caught in a ROCK and a HARD place. Imagine having an economic DEPRESSION with RECORD HIGH inflation = Welcome to Canada 🇨🇦

Marc Nixon

172,412 次观看 • 6 个月前

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1:34

Russian propagandist Solovyev is mad about inflation in Russia - it hinders military production. He demands Russian central bank fix the problem. What Solovyev doesn't tell his audience is that the inflation in Russia is this high exactly because of the war. Inflation in Russia has surged over 9% this month, with prices for a wide range of goods and services rising, including potatoes (up 91% this year) and economy-class flights (up 35%). Russian Central Bank reports that reducing inflation will require a "significantly longer period" of higher interest rates than previously forecasted. The reasons for such unmanageable inflation are labor shortage due to the mobilization of men; U.S. sanctions that have made it more difficult to import goods from China and Turkey; and Russian society itself, since rising price tags have spurred some to cut consumption, limit vacations or discuss where to find the best deals. Source:

Anton Gerashchenko

359,645 次观看 • 2 年前

Henrik Zeberg said the thing you're not allowed to say right now: "Inflation is not high here. Anybody who says that is not studying. Inflation is incredibly low." His argument isn't the CPI print. It's who's supposed to carry inflation higher: "People pointing to the 1970s here haven't studied the savings rate. The savings rate in the 1970s was between 10 and 20%. That means people actually had the extra money in the pocket when inflation was going up. That's a different situation today... There's nobody to carry inflation." Savings rate now: 2 to 3%. Job creation: "16,000 jobs per month in a 170 million job market, the most pathetic job market we have seen." An oil shock can move the calculation of inflation, he says, but inflation is what people do about it, and a consumer with 3% savings reprioritizes instead of paying up. Then the parallel that made me sit up: "2008, January, inflation was at 4% and the Fed cut by 125 basis points over two meetings. Nobody knew of the financial crisis. Now inflation is 3%, the job market is worse, and the Fed is talking about hiking. Why should they hike?" His call: they won't. They'll stay focused on the wrong mandate until they "really stare deflation in the eyes", and then scramble, late, like every time. Hiking here would be, in his words, one of their greatest mistakes ever. Everyone feels inflation at the checkout. He's looking at an economy with no savings, no job growth, and a Fed staring at the wrong mandate.
7:18

Henrik Zeberg said the thing you're not allowed to say right now: "Inflation is not high here. Anybody who says that is not studying. Inflation is incredibly low." His argument isn't the CPI print. It's who's supposed to carry inflation higher: "People pointing to the 1970s here haven't studied the savings rate. The savings rate in the 1970s was between 10 and 20%. That means people actually had the extra money in the pocket when inflation was going up. That's a different situation today... There's nobody to carry inflation." Savings rate now: 2 to 3%. Job creation: "16,000 jobs per month in a 170 million job market, the most pathetic job market we have seen." An oil shock can move the calculation of inflation, he says, but inflation is what people do about it, and a consumer with 3% savings reprioritizes instead of paying up. Then the parallel that made me sit up: "2008, January, inflation was at 4% and the Fed cut by 125 basis points over two meetings. Nobody knew of the financial crisis. Now inflation is 3%, the job market is worse, and the Fed is talking about hiking. Why should they hike?" His call: they won't. They'll stay focused on the wrong mandate until they "really stare deflation in the eyes", and then scramble, late, like every time. Hiking here would be, in his words, one of their greatest mistakes ever. Everyone feels inflation at the checkout. He's looking at an economy with no savings, no job growth, and a Fed staring at the wrong mandate.

Michaël van de Poppe

38,539 次观看 • 3 天前

🚨 CENTRAL BANK WARNING: RATIONING IS ON THE TABLE ECB President Christine Lagarde just said it outright: A third of global fertiliser moves through the Strait of Hormuz — now at risk. If disruption continues, this doesn’t just mean higher prices… It could mean rationing. Not speculation. Not theory. From the head of the European Central Bank: “Shortages hit output directly… worse for growth.” This is the chain reaction: Energy → Fertiliser → Food → Inflation → Rationing The system is under pressure.
2:13

🚨 CENTRAL BANK WARNING: RATIONING IS ON THE TABLE ECB President Christine Lagarde just said it outright: A third of global fertiliser moves through the Strait of Hormuz — now at risk. If disruption continues, this doesn’t just mean higher prices… It could mean rationing. Not speculation. Not theory. From the head of the European Central Bank: “Shortages hit output directly… worse for growth.” This is the chain reaction: Energy → Fertiliser → Food → Inflation → Rationing The system is under pressure.

Jim Ferguson

26,524 次观看 • 5 个月前

Three signs tell you the government is using inflation to shrink your savings. 1/ The dollar index When the dollar loses value, inflation is rising and the government's debt becomes cheaper. 2/ Bond yields versus inflation If 10-year Treasury yields stay below the inflation rate, savers lose purchasing power every year. 3/ The Fed Chair's tone The words used at press conferences shape policy for the next 6 weeks. Keep an ear out. If all three signs appear, your cash and bonds are about to lose a LOT of value to inflation.
1:25

Three signs tell you the government is using inflation to shrink your savings. 1/ The dollar index When the dollar loses value, inflation is rising and the government's debt becomes cheaper. 2/ Bond yields versus inflation If 10-year Treasury yields stay below the inflation rate, savers lose purchasing power every year. 3/ The Fed Chair's tone The words used at press conferences shape policy for the next 6 weeks. Keep an ear out. If all three signs appear, your cash and bonds are about to lose a LOT of value to inflation.

Felix Prehn 🐶

22,489 次观看 • 3 个月前

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.
14:42

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 次观看 • 3 个月前