Common pushback from Rob Hadick ＞|＜ @26x14eth Stephen McBride is that this has also been a concern in previous technological revolutions but has never played out because of new sectors that emerge from those technologies. Imo this is lazy reasoning by analogy and can be distilled down to "It's... always been like this in previous instances in the past so it will be like this in the future" which is a common reasoning technique that lacks nuance and thus doesn't always work. Similar to how people use heuristics from past market cycles expecting them to work in future ones such as stock to flow model, bitcoin never having a double top, bitcoin never going below previous ATHs in subsequent cycles, etc. Note that in the AI revolution, you will have unprecedented factors such as: - Breadth/percentage of jobs affected (Probably >95% of jobs) - Speed of technological adoption - Lack of obvious new industries/jobs created compared to previous tech revolutions ie. there were infinite ideas of new internet enabled companies 20-30+ years ago and subsequently many of them became reality while this is not as obvious on the AI side Even if these new industries/companies existed why wouldn't their labor force be predominantly powered by AI? Previous tech revolutions didn't result in massive job displacement because there were always things humans could do that machines couldn't but this revolution is unique in that we are literally creating machines that can do everything humans can do and do it bettershow more

No. It's empirical, and far more so then you taking the consensus view, waving your hand and saying "we will have mass unemployment because technology will get a lot better" - there is no real counterfactual to that point, which is parroted broadly, because its simply a science fiction novel level of prediction. History doesn't repeat, but it informs. Here is what we do know, for a fact. 1/ We've had continued technological advancement that has reshaped first to third world economies many times over, and each time has resulted in the advancement of new labor (60% of US jobs today did not exist in 1950) and the decrease of unemployment. 2/ That low skilled jobs, which have been affected by automation, have continually shrunk (because of tech advancement) but unemployment has not grown - in fact a Spanish study in 2021 showed that robotic automation in factories INCREASED jobs by 10%. Almost all forms of automation of the last decade have resulted in net new jobs, in fact. 3/ We know that productivity gains and economic growth are highly correlated to low unemployment and that AI will significantly increase both of those things. Economies are not zero sum, they are an ever expanding pie. 4/ The proliferation of AI and Robotics increases the complexity at the margins and of the subjective, things which its entirely unclear that AI will ever be able to do 5/ Significant amounts of new data and analytics will be unlocked, allowing more and more workers to make greater and higher level decisions, reshaping the way human expertise is applied in a greater number of instances Broadly, I agree with David Autor - and the reasoning isn't lazy, it's empirical - next time i'd appreciate some engagement/back and forth vs. just tagging me and calling me lazy without even understanding my perspective. Recent paper from Autor:

@26x14eth @DisruptionHedge You are still pointing to the past. What are examples of new jobs that will be created by AI advancement? Will they in aggregate replace the income lost by workers whomst jobs will be replace by AI (trillions per year)?

1/ This is inane - do you think in 1950 anyone could have predicted the 60% of jobs that exist today that didn't then? Of course not. BofA asked a large number of macro strategists and company runners, about half thought that AI was a net new job creator and half thought the opposite. 2/ Half my post doesn't point to the past, it points to facts that are forward looking about the growth of complexity, increase in subjectivity, increase in labor productivity, and economic growth and how those things all point to human labor opportunity 3/ There are already a large list of underserved jobs that exist today that didn't before AI/ML which will need millions of new workers. AI and ML Engineers. Skill Prompt Engineer. AI Ethicist. Autonomous engineer. Robotics Process Automation. Data labeling. NLP. Chatbot technical copywriter (yes real job). Data curators. This list goes on - it's more technical in nature, implying the need to upskill workers (which ironically AI allows us to do!) 4/ There is also a large list of jobs that have seen significant growth because of AI and automation (despite existing before hand) which will also need millions of new workers. Data analytics. Cloud architects. Database and network architects. Nurse Practictioners. Content moderators. Drone operators. Medical research practitioners. Quants. Software engineers (yes, they've grown, not shrunk, since AI has begun to supplement work). 5/ What else might exist? Well anything that AI helps enable or support and the things required to support them. How about a hybrid robotic/biotechnical engineer and literally anything that might result from new forms of research here? New forms of auditors/moderators/refiners/trainers/etc for AI systems and outputs? Large scale VR experience designers? Literally anything that might happen in space. Any job related to new types of energy formation and harnessing. This list is as long as your imagination and, like your pretext, is impossible to prove or disprove.

1/ People in the 1990s/200s could give you tens of thousands+ examples of new companies enabled by the internet. Pretty informational that you can't say the same here, but even for new companies you can create, the vast majority of the workforce can be still driven by AI 2/ Historical examples around productivity, employment ,etc are irrelevant because the AI revolution is fundamentally different from previous tech revolutions since humans could previously always move to jobs that required increasingly higher levels of cognitive ability. Artificial intelligence will match and eventually surpass human cognitive ability. Whatever new jobs you could train a human to do, an AI will learn and be trained to do it better and faster 3-5/ Your points here point to a lack of understanding of the capabilities of what tech organizations are developing as "AI". All of them are working towards supra-human intelligence. This means that AI will be able to do all of the jobs you listed. Including AI engineer/researcher. Previous OpenAI employees have publicly estimated us to get there by 2026. More recent chatter from insiders and AI twitter speculate that high level human reasoning capability has already been achieved and access to models will be publicly released in the next quarter.

1/ To be clear what just happened across these 4 posts, you asked for what jobs are being enabled, enhanced, or created by AI of which I gave you dozens of examples and now you are saying that "I can't give examples of new companies that can be created by AI". Of course I can, we all can, that's the point - that's why we have all of these AI entrepreneurs getting funded. Are you arguing in bad faith or simply unable to stay on the topic (jobs) that you posited? 2/ It will surpass human cognitive ability *in some ways* and not in other ways and will be not a replacement for all work but an unlock of other types of work. We can agree to disagree here, for sure, but even many of the most famous and successful AI researchers believe AI is an unlock for the things humans do better (eg. dealing with subjectivity, creativity, etc) 3/ My points 3-5 are facts. They aren't debatable. You can decide you think they will all go away eventually, which is just the same as the previous point which is not provable, but it is a fact that today AI is creating millions of net new skilled jobs.

Very easy to think about jobs which will be replaced. Much harder to imagine to future as it’s unknowable @Rewkang True that tech adoption cycles are speeding up but things still take a long time to play out (see cloud and e commerce adoption) Fact remains no technology in history has ever caused mass unemployment. Of the 270 jobs listed in the 1950 US Census, only one was eliminated by automation: elevator operator. New technologies almost always createmore jobs than they destroy. A study by economist David Autor found 60% of workers today are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940… implying that over 85% of employment growth over the last 80 years is explained by the technology-driven creation of new positions.

You are again using by reasoning by analogy and referencing historical examples. Hard to imagine which jobs will be created is true but also a cop out answer. Also hard to imagine how AR/VR would take over the world when it only offers marginal utility improvements but it doesn’t mean it actually happened or will happen even though similarly hyped technologies have in the past

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge How many people that think they’re the smartest in person in the room are going to admit AI takes over their function

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge The biggest question is how AI will affect the labor costs of basic consumption products such as food, gas/transportation, cleaning etc. Would basic consumption costs go considerably down, in parallel to blue collar jobs displacement? If so, consumer spending would stay strong

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge So basically we are all doomed ?

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge Valid point. While it's true that new sectors have historically emerged, assuming this will always happen without addressing current nuances might be short-sighted. Each technological wave has unique challenges. #### #nuanced

I think it's possible this is true but almost certainly wrong on timing and as we say being early is the same as being wrong Or something I like to say "the problem for those who can see the future is it always seems closer than it is" AI probably ultimately is deflationary but not particularly in the next 12-24 months There's a few issues 1. Making the tech functional to actually replacing jobs is more of a challenge than advertised. We can see this is FSD where Elon has been calling for it since 2016, it turns out it's a harder problem to solve than expected but we don't know that because it's never been done. Generative AI is another example where you see pretty quickly if you're working in a professional production environment that it's too inconsistent, doesn't develop into a workable form and is riddled with hallucinations. There are some areas such as generating audio that seem pretty useful but more than displacing the existing in the next 12 months it simply magnifies the output for example turning all text dialogue into voice in games. So not yet deflationary 2. Regulatory capture - this has been a huge weakness in the Ark thesis. They assume productivity gains accrue to the market or innovators but often it accrues to regulatory participants and rent seekers. You should be worried about a recession in the next 12 months but not driven by deflationary AI because so far AI isn't particularly deflationary and we aren't even remotely close to AGI.

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge Lazy reasoning by extrapolation is no better than reasoning by analogy

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge Actually employment will increase and at higher salaries since it will become much cheaper to try new ideas, some of which will work and create a lot of wealth for those involved. Huge positive impact for poorer nations too, as their people will be able to do so much more!

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge Slerf dead or still accumulating

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge What kind of mental.odels do you use to overcome heuristics or any decision makinv?

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge The Industrial Revolution overcame the limits of human physical labor, unlocking mass production In the AI age, humanity must discover new markets that emerge as the productivity and cost barriers of human intellect are overcome

@HadickM @26x14eth @DisruptionHedge 일자리를 잃을까봐 무서워요

Let's cut the bullshit and get straight to the point. This AI revolution isn't just another blip on the technological radar - it's a fucking seismic shift that's going to restructure the entire global economy First off, we're talking about potentially 95% of jobs being affected. Jesus Christ, that's not just change - that's economic Armageddon. During the Great Depression, unemployment hit 25% and the system nearly collapsed. At 95%? We're looking at a full-blown economic apocalypse Secondly, this isn't like previous tech revolutions. AI isn't creating new industries - it's optimizing existing ones. It's not about job creation, it's about job replacement. And it's happening at a pace that makes the industrial revolution look like a fucking snail race. So what's the play here? Two scenarios: One, Universal Basic Income (UBI). If AI skyrockets productivity, the benefits need to be shared. This means more government spending, which means more money printing. Inflation is coming, and it's going to make the 1970s look like a picnic Two, a complete overhaul of our education system. We need people who can collaborate with AI, who can manage it, who can direct it. These skills will command a massive premium Both scenarios point to one thing: a widening wealth gap. The divide between the AI haves and have-nots is going to make our current inequality look like a rounding error So what's the move? Simple. Buy Bitcoin Why Bitcoin? As governments print money to fund UBI or new education systems, fiat currencies will inevitably devalue. But Bitcoin? It's got a hard cap at 21 million. No matter how smart AI gets, it can't change that. In fact, AI will likely make the Bitcoin network even more efficient Moreover, Bitcoin is the ultimate tool for wealth preservation. When the AI winners look to protect their wealth, where are they going to put it? In fiat currencies that governments can manipulate at will? Or in a decentralized, supply-capped asset like Bitcoin? The AI revolution is coming, and it's going to bring economic chaos. In this environment, Bitcoin isn't just an investment - it's a fucking life raft So here's my advice: Stack sats and HODL. AI might take your job, but at least it won't take your wealth Remember, in the world of finance, it's not about being right or wrong. It's about positioning yourself to profit regardless of the outcome. And in the face of the AI revolution, Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge