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#CRISTOBAL is likely to form in the Atlantic this week. However, powerful wind shear is forecast to rip it apart as it enters the Caribbean this weekend. Regardless of development much needed rain is coming for the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. #tropicalupdate 🌀🌀🌀

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Dylan Federico

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15,717 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

Наука и технологииНовости и политика#CRISTOBAL#tropicalupdate
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#CRISTOBAL is likely to form in the Atlantic this week. It could bring impacts to the Caribbean Islands this weekend -- including much needed rain to drought stricken places like Puerto Rico. #tropicalupdate 🌀⛈️💦
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#CRISTOBAL is likely to form in the Atlantic this week. It could bring impacts to the Caribbean Islands this weekend -- including much needed rain to drought stricken places like Puerto Rico. #tropicalupdate 🌀⛈️💦

Dylan Federico

126,487 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The record warm Gulf along with relatively light shear will allow Tropical Depression Two to strengthen into Tropical Storm #BERTHA later today. However, strong northerly wind shear will blow Bertha out like a candle as it approaches the Gulf Coast midweek. #tropicalupdate 🌀
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The record warm Gulf along with relatively light shear will allow Tropical Depression Two to strengthen into Tropical Storm #BERTHA later today. However, strong northerly wind shear will blow Bertha out like a candle as it approaches the Gulf Coast midweek. #tropicalupdate 🌀

Dylan Federico

49,892 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

100 MPH Hurricane Killing Peak Wind Shear forecast in the #Caribbean . Unreal for summer, but this is no ordinary summer. The strongest El Niño on record is flexing its muscle 💪 and overpowering the Atlantic. Anything that tries to develop would be torn to pieces. If this continues, it would be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. #hurricane #elnino
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100 MPH Hurricane Killing Peak Wind Shear forecast in the #Caribbean . Unreal for summer, but this is no ordinary summer. The strongest El Niño on record is flexing its muscle 💪 and overpowering the Atlantic. Anything that tries to develop would be torn to pieces. If this continues, it would be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. #hurricane #elnino

Jeff Berardelli

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Another big burst of #Saharan dust is once again building across the main development region of the tropical #Atlantic. Amazing seeing this all #Summer long. Also plenty of wind shear across the #Caribbean. No development this week. #weshwx
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Another big burst of #Saharan dust is once again building across the main development region of the tropical #Atlantic. Amazing seeing this all #Summer long. Also plenty of wind shear across the #Caribbean. No development this week. #weshwx

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🌀 A series of powerful tropical cyclones has developed in the Pacific: Lowell, Karina and Marie. ⛈️ El Niño inhibits hurricane formation in the Atlantic (stronger tropical winds and greater wind shear) whilst intensifying them in the Pacific. 🗺️
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🌀 A series of powerful tropical cyclones has developed in the Pacific: Lowell, Karina and Marie. ⛈️ El Niño inhibits hurricane formation in the Atlantic (stronger tropical winds and greater wind shear) whilst intensifying them in the Pacific. 🗺️

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As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic. We can't guarantee no Atlantic storms in July, especially with the always-present risk of so-called "home grown" development along old cold fronts that drape across the SW Atlantic and Gulf region. But things seem likely to stay in check for a while.
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As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal. By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic. We can't guarantee no Atlantic storms in July, especially with the always-present risk of so-called "home grown" development along old cold fronts that drape across the SW Atlantic and Gulf region. But things seem likely to stay in check for a while.

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The signal for tropical development is getting stronger. This is the Euro AI ensemble. It develops two strong waves exiting the African Coast in 1-2 weeks. The chance of formation of at least one of these is pretty decent. But the trip across the Atlantic won’t be easy, with dusty air in the deep tropics and #elnino fueled strong wind shear in the Caribbean. So if the storm/s form they will struggle for success. Thanks Weather Nerds for the ensemble! #hurricaneseason #hurricane
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The signal for tropical development is getting stronger. This is the Euro AI ensemble. It develops two strong waves exiting the African Coast in 1-2 weeks. The chance of formation of at least one of these is pretty decent. But the trip across the Atlantic won’t be easy, with dusty air in the deep tropics and #elnino fueled strong wind shear in the Caribbean. So if the storm/s form they will struggle for success. Thanks Weather Nerds for the ensemble! #hurricaneseason #hurricane

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Three hurricanes are spinning across the Pacific, with major threats developing for Hawaii and Mexico. 🌀 Hurricane Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3 storm as it nears Hawaii’s Big Island, bringing the potential for a long-lasting, life-threatening rain event. Widespread rainfall of 24-36 inches is expected on the eastern slopes of the Big Island, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 55 inches. Hurricane Polo regained Category 5 strength early Friday with 180-mph winds. The powerful hurricane is expected to turn toward Mexico this weekend, bringing damaging winds, flooding rain and dangerous seas before making landfall in northwestern Mexico early next week.
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Three hurricanes are spinning across the Pacific, with major threats developing for Hawaii and Mexico. 🌀 Hurricane Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a Category 3 storm as it nears Hawaii’s Big Island, bringing the potential for a long-lasting, life-threatening rain event. Widespread rainfall of 24-36 inches is expected on the eastern slopes of the Big Island, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 55 inches. Hurricane Polo regained Category 5 strength early Friday with 180-mph winds. The powerful hurricane is expected to turn toward Mexico this weekend, bringing damaging winds, flooding rain and dangerous seas before making landfall in northwestern Mexico early next week.

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MAJOR NOR'EASTER 🌀: A major fall nor’easter is charging toward the Northeast right now. From the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England, expect power outages, travel disruptions, and dangerous beach erosion as the storm ramps up this weekend.

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HURRICANE GRAVEYARD - Record strong wind shear has been screaming across the Caribbean all season which is a hallmark of El Nino. We love wind shear because it tears hurricanes apart and protects us from storms. I don't see any tropical trouble for at least the next seven days.
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HURRICANE GRAVEYARD - Record strong wind shear has been screaming across the Caribbean all season which is a hallmark of El Nino. We love wind shear because it tears hurricanes apart and protects us from storms. I don't see any tropical trouble for at least the next seven days.

Dylan Federico

115,477 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Gulf Tropical Development? Hmmmm maybe. Models are 50/50. It is possible, but the window of opportunity is narrow in time and space. To be clear: I certainly think a system may form, but I am skeptical of a strong system. Still am. Let’s discuss why. That’s because wind shear is generally overwhelming, with one small exception over the Central and SW #Gulf. In about a week a short window will open where there will be a corridor of low wind shear, just favorable enough for development- most likely in the S-Central Gulf or SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche. BUT the “bubble” where this can organize and strengthen is tight. So it will face uphill odds thanks to #ElNino strong shear. Still, you never know for certain, sometimes divergence aloft ahead of the strong shear can enhance, so there’s an off chance it over performs. I’ll keep you updated. Perhaps more importantly, with tons of Gulf moisture, the Gulf Coast & #Florida should be ready for an extended period of enhanced rain. #hurricane #hurricaneseason
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Gulf Tropical Development? Hmmmm maybe. Models are 50/50. It is possible, but the window of opportunity is narrow in time and space. To be clear: I certainly think a system may form, but I am skeptical of a strong system. Still am. Let’s discuss why. That’s because wind shear is generally overwhelming, with one small exception over the Central and SW #Gulf. In about a week a short window will open where there will be a corridor of low wind shear, just favorable enough for development- most likely in the S-Central Gulf or SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche. BUT the “bubble” where this can organize and strengthen is tight. So it will face uphill odds thanks to #ElNino strong shear. Still, you never know for certain, sometimes divergence aloft ahead of the strong shear can enhance, so there’s an off chance it over performs. I’ll keep you updated. Perhaps more importantly, with tons of Gulf moisture, the Gulf Coast & #Florida should be ready for an extended period of enhanced rain. #hurricane #hurricaneseason

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🌀🌀 DOUBLE TROUBLE: It’s a coast-to-coast tropical double threat! The U.S. is facing a dual storm setup as Isaias charges into the Gulf Coast from the East, while Rachel whips around the Pacific to target the Southwest—leaving both coasts bracing for heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds.

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CYCLONE VAIANU ⚠️🌀🚨 Cyclone Vaianu is likely to move across the North Island on Sunday, 12 April. If it does, it will bring damaging, potentially life-threatening winds. However, uncertainty remains in the cyclone's exact track, so the locations of the most severe winds are not yet certain. As confidence in the track increases, parts of this Watch will be upgraded to Orange or possibly Red Warnings. 🟠🔴 Vaianu will also bring heavy rain, with Heavy Rain Watches and/or Warnings likely to be issued on Thursday for some areas. High chance of upgrading to a Warning. 📢 More information: National Emergency Management Agency

MetService NZ

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The week ahead is set to be very wet, especially in the west. Flooding is likely in places, so stay up to date with the forecast and leave extra time for your journeys ⚠️ Here's how much rain you can expect by the end of Friday 👇
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The week ahead is set to be very wet, especially in the west. Flooding is likely in places, so stay up to date with the forecast and leave extra time for your journeys ⚠️ Here's how much rain you can expect by the end of Friday 👇

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