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Gulf Tropical Development? Hmmmm maybe. Models are 50/50. It is possible, but the window of opportunity is narrow in time and space. To be clear: I certainly think a system may form, but I am skeptical of a strong system. Still am. Let’s discuss why. That’s because wind shear...

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Jeff Berardelli

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16,104 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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The signal for tropical development is getting stronger. This is the Euro AI ensemble. It develops two strong waves exiting the African Coast in 1-2 weeks. The chance of formation of at least one of these is pretty decent. But the trip across the Atlantic won’t be easy, with dusty air in the deep tropics and #elnino fueled strong wind shear in the Caribbean. So if the storm/s form they will struggle for success. Thanks Weather Nerds for the ensemble! #hurricaneseason #hurricane
0:17

The signal for tropical development is getting stronger. This is the Euro AI ensemble. It develops two strong waves exiting the African Coast in 1-2 weeks. The chance of formation of at least one of these is pretty decent. But the trip across the Atlantic won’t be easy, with dusty air in the deep tropics and #elnino fueled strong wind shear in the Caribbean. So if the storm/s form they will struggle for success. Thanks Weather Nerds for the ensemble! #hurricaneseason #hurricane

Jeff Berardelli

25,782 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropical
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Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropical

Jeff Berardelli

37,147 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest #97L in the northern Gulf flaring up pretty impressive storms this morning. If trends continue, might get a bump to orange or a medium chance of development later today. It has a tight window to try and form before pushing into TX / LA on Tuesday. It's certainly possible to squeak out a quick Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm #Edouard. Water temps are warmer than average for most of the Gulf + low wind shear along its track. What could hurt development is dry air. We'll see, stay tuned...
0:18

TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest #97L in the northern Gulf flaring up pretty impressive storms this morning. If trends continue, might get a bump to orange or a medium chance of development later today. It has a tight window to try and form before pushing into TX / LA on Tuesday. It's certainly possible to squeak out a quick Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm #Edouard. Water temps are warmer than average for most of the Gulf + low wind shear along its track. What could hurt development is dry air. We'll see, stay tuned...

Matt Devitt

47,370 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.
0:15

TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.

Matt Devitt

219,869 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Sunday September 6, 2026. 10:00 AM: Rain is intensifying in Los Angeles County thanks to Marie’s axis directly over Los Angeles County. It may not be a hurricane, but it is bringing much more tropical moisture that is coming into the region thanks to a Gulf of Alaskan low axis and the peripheral edges of Marie, which has perfect incoming impulses to the region for a wet Sunday on this Labor Day weekend. #CAwx #LArain #hurricaneseason #Marie
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Sunday September 6, 2026. 10:00 AM: Rain is intensifying in Los Angeles County thanks to Marie’s axis directly over Los Angeles County. It may not be a hurricane, but it is bringing much more tropical moisture that is coming into the region thanks to a Gulf of Alaskan low axis and the peripheral edges of Marie, which has perfect incoming impulses to the region for a wet Sunday on this Labor Day weekend. #CAwx #LArain #hurricaneseason #Marie

Jason D Farhang

22,453 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Powering our very unusual pattern - with early season Gulf cold fronts and strong wind shear - is an extremely amplified jet stream for September. It has thrown the whole Northern Hemisphere weather off-kilter. That means cool-dry weather this weekend for North-Central Florida about a month early! It also means hurricane killing wind shear across the Atlantic Basin! Here's the science: Warm air is being forced all the way up to the Arctic circle by an elongated jet stream. That will cause an "Omega block" to form this weekend over Central Canada - you can see the Greek Omega shape with cold air on either side. These "blocking" patterns are very tough to dislodge. Because what goes up, must come down, cool air is being forced south along the Eastern Sea Board bringing Faux Fall to Florida. Faux or not, we will take it! WFLA NEWS
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Powering our very unusual pattern - with early season Gulf cold fronts and strong wind shear - is an extremely amplified jet stream for September. It has thrown the whole Northern Hemisphere weather off-kilter. That means cool-dry weather this weekend for North-Central Florida about a month early! It also means hurricane killing wind shear across the Atlantic Basin! Here's the science: Warm air is being forced all the way up to the Arctic circle by an elongated jet stream. That will cause an "Omega block" to form this weekend over Central Canada - you can see the Greek Omega shape with cold air on either side. These "blocking" patterns are very tough to dislodge. Because what goes up, must come down, cool air is being forced south along the Eastern Sea Board bringing Faux Fall to Florida. Faux or not, we will take it! WFLA NEWS

Jeff Berardelli

63,623 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Here is a look at the rain that will move across Alabama after midnight tonight and during the day tomorrow (3km NAM model). Thankfully the air will be stable and severe storms are generally not expected. We will need to watch storms along the Gulf Coast, where a small amount of instability will be available, but even there lapse rates will be poor and the threat is low. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected for most places.
0:13

Here is a look at the rain that will move across Alabama after midnight tonight and during the day tomorrow (3km NAM model). Thankfully the air will be stable and severe storms are generally not expected. We will need to watch storms along the Gulf Coast, where a small amount of instability will be available, but even there lapse rates will be poor and the threat is low. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected for most places.

James Spann

15,549 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

As Tropical Storm Bertha’s almost nonexistent center moves through Louisiana, an intense, convective lightning storm in association with her broader circulation is now crackling above the Houston skyline. SE Texas will soon host the final landfall location for Bertha once she swims out of the swamp and back into the Gulf, and this is where any freshwater flooding risk should be greatest tonight and tomorrow. Thus far, besides some coastal tidal surge in the Florida panhandle and Mississippi, Bertha’s impacts have fortunately been minimal thanks to strong wind shear.
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As Tropical Storm Bertha’s almost nonexistent center moves through Louisiana, an intense, convective lightning storm in association with her broader circulation is now crackling above the Houston skyline. SE Texas will soon host the final landfall location for Bertha once she swims out of the swamp and back into the Gulf, and this is where any freshwater flooding risk should be greatest tonight and tomorrow. Thus far, besides some coastal tidal surge in the Florida panhandle and Mississippi, Bertha’s impacts have fortunately been minimal thanks to strong wind shear.

Backpirch Weather

13,426 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Invest 92L in the Gulf of Buc-ee’s is expected to develop into a postpartum depression within the next 48 hours. The NHC places odds at 90%. Thunderstorms are becoming organized. I think we get another tropical storm outta this, but no hurricane. Look for a Gulf Coast landfall Saturday night or Sunday, probably between Cajun Country and the Florida panhandle. I will update if things change.
0:11

Invest 92L in the Gulf of Buc-ee’s is expected to develop into a postpartum depression within the next 48 hours. The NHC places odds at 90%. Thunderstorms are becoming organized. I think we get another tropical storm outta this, but no hurricane. Look for a Gulf Coast landfall Saturday night or Sunday, probably between Cajun Country and the Florida panhandle. I will update if things change.

Chris Martz

22,439 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

The amount of convective available potential energy over the Middle East on Thursday is enough for a textbook hatchery of supercell thunderstorms. Where this unstable mass of nearly 5,000 J/kg of CAPE intersects with the dip in the jet stream will determine the greatest threat area for desert tornadoes (most likely in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) and/or strong marine waterspouts over the Persian Gulf.
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The amount of convective available potential energy over the Middle East on Thursday is enough for a textbook hatchery of supercell thunderstorms. Where this unstable mass of nearly 5,000 J/kg of CAPE intersects with the dip in the jet stream will determine the greatest threat area for desert tornadoes (most likely in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) and/or strong marine waterspouts over the Persian Gulf.

Backpirch Weather

962,391 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

One thing we are watching now is potential ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) beginning. Pressure / wind may have temporarily peaked. Some of the hurricane models have suggested multiple eyewall replacement cycles through Tuesday. For tonight, it is possible this eyewall replacement is quick then we see another dip even stronger overnight with lower pressure and even higher winds. These eyewall replacement cycles will have impacts on how the storm comes into FL Wednesday night. Eventually these should grow the eye and core with time. If the cycles are finished before it hits the wind shear, that could make it a little more resilient to the wind shear. A smaller eye and core probably gets bothered more by the dry air intrusion/wind shear that should be meeting up with #Milton late Wednesday off the Tampa coast. So, these cycles are important in the eventual core structure as it nears the coast late WED.
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One thing we are watching now is potential ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) beginning. Pressure / wind may have temporarily peaked. Some of the hurricane models have suggested multiple eyewall replacement cycles through Tuesday. For tonight, it is possible this eyewall replacement is quick then we see another dip even stronger overnight with lower pressure and even higher winds. These eyewall replacement cycles will have impacts on how the storm comes into FL Wednesday night. Eventually these should grow the eye and core with time. If the cycles are finished before it hits the wind shear, that could make it a little more resilient to the wind shear. A smaller eye and core probably gets bothered more by the dry air intrusion/wind shear that should be meeting up with #Milton late Wednesday off the Tampa coast. So, these cycles are important in the eventual core structure as it nears the coast late WED.

Noah Bergren

111,635 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

We have an unusually High #Tornado Threat from #Hurricane Isaias This movie uses real data, to help educate on why this storm poses an enhanced risk. Notice the yellow vs blue arrows. Yellow are the winds just below the clouds, it’s the low level wind flow (jet) around and feeding into the storm. Blue are the mid-level winds associated with the jet stream. You’ll notice that as Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast the blue arrows increase and the low-level vs mid-levels winds vigorously cross (X) each other. That’s the jet stream (blue arrows) being infused into the tropical system. That will create more cross winds/ shear, weaken #Isaias, but embolden spin in the outer bands. This injection of energy will power strong #tornadoes on the storm’s east side at landfall in the #Florida Panhandle and beyond into the Southeast. Not all storms have this, but it’s more common in fall as the mid-latitude jet stream increases. And it gives the transitioning tropical storm system a different character. It causes the wind field at the core to expand, making the storm larger, empowering the outer bands with more wind, at the expense of the core winds which weaken. (Although all set ups are different, Milton and Sandy come to mind) *This animation does use real wind data, but the tornadoes are added to illustrate where the greatest risk is. They are not meant to forecast exactly where the tornadoes will be.
0:15

We have an unusually High #Tornado Threat from #Hurricane Isaias This movie uses real data, to help educate on why this storm poses an enhanced risk. Notice the yellow vs blue arrows. Yellow are the winds just below the clouds, it’s the low level wind flow (jet) around and feeding into the storm. Blue are the mid-level winds associated with the jet stream. You’ll notice that as Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast the blue arrows increase and the low-level vs mid-levels winds vigorously cross (X) each other. That’s the jet stream (blue arrows) being infused into the tropical system. That will create more cross winds/ shear, weaken #Isaias, but embolden spin in the outer bands. This injection of energy will power strong #tornadoes on the storm’s east side at landfall in the #Florida Panhandle and beyond into the Southeast. Not all storms have this, but it’s more common in fall as the mid-latitude jet stream increases. And it gives the transitioning tropical storm system a different character. It causes the wind field at the core to expand, making the storm larger, empowering the outer bands with more wind, at the expense of the core winds which weaken. (Although all set ups are different, Milton and Sandy come to mind) *This animation does use real wind data, but the tornadoes are added to illustrate where the greatest risk is. They are not meant to forecast exactly where the tornadoes will be.

Jeff Berardelli

71,343 Aufrufe • vor 20 Stunden

UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!
0:17

UPDATE: A LOT of tropical moisture on the way across Florida the next 5-10 days. For example, those moisture levels will be 50%-75% above average, which will aid in developing numerous rounds of storms across the state. Values shown are PWATS or precipitable water levels. Around 1.6" is typical this time of the year for Florida, which you'll notice we'll be above the next 7-10 days. Some online chatter about tropical development. Not impossible, but current odds are low. Physics-based models show the potential, AI models largely don't. Rainmaker regardless if it tries to form into a weak tropical/subtropical system or not. We need the rain!

Matt Devitt

36,299 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.
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⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.

Windy.com

11,854 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

12 hours in with 4 to go. The sun will be up in an hour when they cut the corner over Cairo and cross the vast desert of Saudi Arabia before entering the gulf and descending into AUH. At this point we get a second wind and usually all tough it out in the cockpit for the last bit. #OMD275
0:12

12 hours in with 4 to go. The sun will be up in an hour when they cut the corner over Cairo and cross the vast desert of Saudi Arabia before entering the gulf and descending into AUH. At this point we get a second wind and usually all tough it out in the cockpit for the last bit. #OMD275

Steve Giordano

474,765 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Trump has been busy renaming things America. Gulf of America, Lake America, presumably soon the America Ocean. And yes, before the pedants arrive, America does sit in the country's official name, so the shorthand is technically his to use. But it is shorthand shared with an entire hemisphere, because the Americas stretch from Nunavut to Patagonia and contain thirty-four other nations who are every bit as American as Ohio. So this is rather like the President of France renaming the Mediterranean "the Gulf of Europe" and then strutting around Paris convinced he has planted a flag for France, while a Belgian quietly points out that he has just done everyone else a favour. If precision were the goal, we would be sailing on the Gulf of the United States, which admittedly sounds like a failed insurance company. But this is a man whose grasp of geography is on nodding terms with his grasp of tariffs, so we should not expect miracles.
0:10

Trump has been busy renaming things America. Gulf of America, Lake America, presumably soon the America Ocean. And yes, before the pedants arrive, America does sit in the country's official name, so the shorthand is technically his to use. But it is shorthand shared with an entire hemisphere, because the Americas stretch from Nunavut to Patagonia and contain thirty-four other nations who are every bit as American as Ohio. So this is rather like the President of France renaming the Mediterranean "the Gulf of Europe" and then strutting around Paris convinced he has planted a flag for France, while a Belgian quietly points out that he has just done everyone else a favour. If precision were the goal, we would be sailing on the Gulf of the United States, which admittedly sounds like a failed insurance company. But this is a man whose grasp of geography is on nodding terms with his grasp of tariffs, so we should not expect miracles.

Gandalv

39,703 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

It wasn’t about the trade but it’s about the confidence and mind set There are a lot of stories behind this account and it make the best of my trades of the year so far. A lot of nonsense happen this month after a long wait for something it came and you crashed it But as a resilience trader you ask for the last $6k that your client has and his response was Greatmann I believe in you and I am funding it now now … Most client lost trust in you because of loss they will call you names and insult you as if they gave birth to you. But you know o have never gotten a client that so much encourage me like Mr Dan He funded the $6k usd yesterday and as at today I made over $62,212 as profit Yes you hear me right 💪 It’s one of my best trade for a very long time in size it’s small compare to other account I am trading but this became the best because I was so careful that I pick losses in some places despite I know it will profit me but I just don’t want to take chances but all I want to say is any thing is posible in forex and so many of this type of account has been crashed by me but this one survived. So don’t because of this think I am a guru no But I am a resilience trading that will keep funding until I got it right like this 😂 🦁 I am the fxLion Your mind go dey Don’t try this as it is very dangerous Why am I sharing this ? Because I want you all to know that we have dofrent type of people in the world and we have different risk appetite and ways of handling losses Mehn I don over loose in this forex oo but we move Be encouraged that one day God will deliver gold into Your hand like this 😂 Another happy part is that I just hit over $50 billion trading volume with Exness therefore, it qualifies me to receive a gift of luxury watch worth $20,000 thanks Exness as I wait for the watch Make I flex it for December lol Forex no easy oo You can retweet to encourage someone but don’t risk more than your blood lol
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It wasn’t about the trade but it’s about the confidence and mind set There are a lot of stories behind this account and it make the best of my trades of the year so far. A lot of nonsense happen this month after a long wait for something it came and you crashed it But as a resilience trader you ask for the last $6k that your client has and his response was Greatmann I believe in you and I am funding it now now … Most client lost trust in you because of loss they will call you names and insult you as if they gave birth to you. But you know o have never gotten a client that so much encourage me like Mr Dan He funded the $6k usd yesterday and as at today I made over $62,212 as profit Yes you hear me right 💪 It’s one of my best trade for a very long time in size it’s small compare to other account I am trading but this became the best because I was so careful that I pick losses in some places despite I know it will profit me but I just don’t want to take chances but all I want to say is any thing is posible in forex and so many of this type of account has been crashed by me but this one survived. So don’t because of this think I am a guru no But I am a resilience trading that will keep funding until I got it right like this 😂 🦁 I am the fxLion Your mind go dey Don’t try this as it is very dangerous Why am I sharing this ? Because I want you all to know that we have dofrent type of people in the world and we have different risk appetite and ways of handling losses Mehn I don over loose in this forex oo but we move Be encouraged that one day God will deliver gold into Your hand like this 😂 Another happy part is that I just hit over $50 billion trading volume with Exness therefore, it qualifies me to receive a gift of luxury watch worth $20,000 thanks Exness as I wait for the watch Make I flex it for December lol Forex no easy oo You can retweet to encourage someone but don’t risk more than your blood lol

FxLion

18,135 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Moist Conveyer Belt Builds over Florida! And a big shift too. The models are coming into much better agreement on a significant, but not deluge, rain event for West-Central Florida this weekend through next week. Heaviest totals will be along the coast. Emphasis “coast”. Expect on and off downpours - not always a washout - with the worst weather Sunday & Monday. Models show a widespread 2-4” Sanibel to Tampa to Crystal River to Panama City, but obviously with tropical bands/ downpours some spots will see much more with some localized flooding too. *BUT there’s been a noticeable shift “West” into the #Gulf next week with the moisture blob pulling away. So the spigot shuts down more quickly from Tampa southward by Tuesday. #florida #storm
0:15

Moist Conveyer Belt Builds over Florida! And a big shift too. The models are coming into much better agreement on a significant, but not deluge, rain event for West-Central Florida this weekend through next week. Heaviest totals will be along the coast. Emphasis “coast”. Expect on and off downpours - not always a washout - with the worst weather Sunday & Monday. Models show a widespread 2-4” Sanibel to Tampa to Crystal River to Panama City, but obviously with tropical bands/ downpours some spots will see much more with some localized flooding too. *BUT there’s been a noticeable shift “West” into the #Gulf next week with the moisture blob pulling away. So the spigot shuts down more quickly from Tampa southward by Tuesday. #florida #storm

Jeff Berardelli

32,095 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten