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Strategy doesn’t have to die, but they do have to make some difficult decisions. The sooner they make them, the better off things will be for $MSTR and $STRC holders, as well as Bitcoin.

K A L E O

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58,452 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Literally my whole timeline is about Michael Saylor selling 32 BTC, which leaves them with JUST 843,706. What I do find interesting is the reasoning behind selling 32 BTC. And let me tell you what I think the reason is: $MSTR is so focused on $STRC lately, and a lot of the noise comes from people thinking they won't pay their holders the dividend. Saylor posted his "Working Better" post and the next few posts were about $STRC. First about maintaining the dividend rate at 11.50%. The second post "Our goal is to make $STRC the best credit instrument in the world." Strategy isn't panic selling Bitcoin because they're about to go down. They're selling to reassure STRC holders that Strategy WILL pay you the dividend. Panic over 0.004% of holdings is peak noise. They're paying STRC holders what they promised so the capital machine keeps fueling more Bitcoin.

Literally my whole timeline is about Michael Saylor selling 32 BTC, which leaves them with JUST 843,706. What I do find interesting is the reasoning behind selling 32 BTC. And let me tell you what I think the reason is: $MSTR is so focused on $STRC lately, and a lot of the noise comes from people thinking they won't pay their holders the dividend. Saylor posted his "Working Better" post and the next few posts were about $STRC. First about maintaining the dividend rate at 11.50%. The second post "Our goal is to make $STRC the best credit instrument in the world." Strategy isn't panic selling Bitcoin because they're about to go down. They're selling to reassure STRC holders that Strategy WILL pay you the dividend. Panic over 0.004% of holdings is peak noise. They're paying STRC holders what they promised so the capital machine keeps fueling more Bitcoin.

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If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

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$MSTR With the current weakness across Strategy’s securities and Bitcoin itself, now might be a good time to revisit how management is likely thinking through the coming weeks. A few things stand out. • The June 30th $STRC dividend obligation is coming up. • While $STRC remains well below the $100 mark, management will likely be working on ways to strengthen the instrument while building on the USD reserve, as they’ve discussed. • With $MSTR currently trading at roughly 0.98x mNAV and $STRC unavailable as a capital raising tool, management has an important set of decisions to make around the BTC reserves. What’s most interesting to me isn’t necessarily which lever gets pulled. It’s how those decisions are prioritized. Operationally, certain actions may make perfect sense while simultaneously creating a very different reaction from the market. The sale of the 32 BTC was enough to trigger widespread discussion and panic. That’s the reality of being one of the largest holders of the hardest asset on the planet. Every capital allocation decision becomes part of the broader market conversation. Some very interesting weeks lie ahead. Let’s see what the Strategy is. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

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