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CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin... show more

Fibonacci 🥷

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If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,287 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,187 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🔥SAYLOR MSTR DILUTION PANIC! DILUTION BEARS DESTROYED!🔥 Everyone is FREAKING OUT over MSTR DILUTION. What if I told you that this FUD was TOTAL RIDICULOUS NONSENSE? The BEARS are either LOSING THEIR MINDS or they cannot do SIMPLE MATH. Or they think Bitcoin is going to zero. In that case, now know how seriously we need to take these people. MSTR DILUTION FUD DESTROYED:

🔥SAYLOR MSTR DILUTION PANIC! DILUTION BEARS DESTROYED!🔥 Everyone is FREAKING OUT over MSTR DILUTION. What if I told you that this FUD was TOTAL RIDICULOUS NONSENSE? The BEARS are either LOSING THEIR MINDS or they cannot do SIMPLE MATH. Or they think Bitcoin is going to zero. In that case, now know how seriously we need to take these people. MSTR DILUTION FUD DESTROYED:

Adam Livingston

30,398 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🔥MASSIVE BULLISH MSTR NEWS - 5 NEW ANNOUNCEMENTS! 🔥 Strategy just raised $1.15 BILLION for the USD reserve in a manner that was ACCRETIVE to MSTR shareholders. They also announced a new DIGITAL CREDIT CAPITAL FRAMEWORK... with FIVE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENTS/UPDATES on how they will continue operating their Bitcoin treasury strategy. MSTR is back to trading at a premium. STRC is up 11%. THE BEARS ARE INSANE PEOPLE. FULL ANALYSIS/BREAKDOWN:

🔥MASSIVE BULLISH MSTR NEWS - 5 NEW ANNOUNCEMENTS! 🔥 Strategy just raised $1.15 BILLION for the USD reserve in a manner that was ACCRETIVE to MSTR shareholders. They also announced a new DIGITAL CREDIT CAPITAL FRAMEWORK... with FIVE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENTS/UPDATES on how they will continue operating their Bitcoin treasury strategy. MSTR is back to trading at a premium. STRC is up 11%. THE BEARS ARE INSANE PEOPLE. FULL ANALYSIS/BREAKDOWN:

Adam Livingston

39,901 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

Adam Livingston

23,786 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Kai

52,699 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Literally my whole timeline is about Michael Saylor selling 32 BTC, which leaves them with JUST 843,706. What I do find interesting is the reasoning behind selling 32 BTC. And let me tell you what I think the reason is: $MSTR is so focused on $STRC lately, and a lot of the noise comes from people thinking they won't pay their holders the dividend. Saylor posted his "Working Better" post and the next few posts were about $STRC. First about maintaining the dividend rate at 11.50%. The second post "Our goal is to make $STRC the best credit instrument in the world." Strategy isn't panic selling Bitcoin because they're about to go down. They're selling to reassure STRC holders that Strategy WILL pay you the dividend. Panic over 0.004% of holdings is peak noise. They're paying STRC holders what they promised so the capital machine keeps fueling more Bitcoin.

Literally my whole timeline is about Michael Saylor selling 32 BTC, which leaves them with JUST 843,706. What I do find interesting is the reasoning behind selling 32 BTC. And let me tell you what I think the reason is: $MSTR is so focused on $STRC lately, and a lot of the noise comes from people thinking they won't pay their holders the dividend. Saylor posted his "Working Better" post and the next few posts were about $STRC. First about maintaining the dividend rate at 11.50%. The second post "Our goal is to make $STRC the best credit instrument in the world." Strategy isn't panic selling Bitcoin because they're about to go down. They're selling to reassure STRC holders that Strategy WILL pay you the dividend. Panic over 0.004% of holdings is peak noise. They're paying STRC holders what they promised so the capital machine keeps fueling more Bitcoin.

Marc ₿

143,210 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

🔥MSTR DOMINATION - SAYLOR IS WINNING - THE BEARS ARE DESTROYED🔥 Strategy just bought back 48x the Bitcoin they sold. The clowns who called "death spiral" are still in denial. Strategy continues to raise $131 MILLION PER TRADING DAY in 2026. Their annual dividend obligation is made up in 13 TRADING DAYS OF RAISING. Strategy now only needs $94.4k Bitcoin for their Bitcoin NAV to reach an all-time high. This is because despite a huge Bitcoin bear market... Strategy is RAISING CAPITAL FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE. THE BEARS ARE IN DENIAL AND THE HATERS ARE LOSING IT. ONWARD TO THE GREAT ORANGE SINGULARITY:

Adam Livingston

19,015 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Should Strategy proactively sell Bitcoin now to protect shareholders later? Kaleo makes the case for selling, and gets pushback Kaleo: "Issuing MSTR is good here. If they were able to just unload a few billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and say the price didn't move way too much, we are being proactive. If they were able to sell that $1.25 billion of Bitcoin, that's bullish" "You're advocating for destroying shareholder value now to protect shareholder value in the future. Why would we be worried about Strategy being a forced seller if we're not worried about voluntarily selling now? That point I just don't get" Kaleo: "Where else is that 10 to 12 billion dollars coming from? They right now have talked about they are willing to sell the Bitcoin. If they sell some at a higher price, it eases a lot more of the concerns than if we get to 30k and we're in the same situation and they haven't sold any" "I can't get anyone to give me an answer on how much Bitcoin he can sell and why. You have no idea what would happen if he did that. What if he does it and Bitcoin goes to 30 and people are like we're done, he's out? You've destroyed more shareholder value than if Bitcoin just goes to 30, stays there 18 months, and he's forced to sell a couple billion. The most likely scenario is at some point in the next 12 months Bitcoin goes up enough that this isn't a problem"

Should Strategy proactively sell Bitcoin now to protect shareholders later? Kaleo makes the case for selling, and gets pushback Kaleo: "Issuing MSTR is good here. If they were able to just unload a few billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and say the price didn't move way too much, we are being proactive. If they were able to sell that $1.25 billion of Bitcoin, that's bullish" "You're advocating for destroying shareholder value now to protect shareholder value in the future. Why would we be worried about Strategy being a forced seller if we're not worried about voluntarily selling now? That point I just don't get" Kaleo: "Where else is that 10 to 12 billion dollars coming from? They right now have talked about they are willing to sell the Bitcoin. If they sell some at a higher price, it eases a lot more of the concerns than if we get to 30k and we're in the same situation and they haven't sold any" "I can't get anyone to give me an answer on how much Bitcoin he can sell and why. You have no idea what would happen if he did that. What if he does it and Bitcoin goes to 30 and people are like we're done, he's out? You've destroyed more shareholder value than if Bitcoin just goes to 30, stays there 18 months, and he's forced to sell a couple billion. The most likely scenario is at some point in the next 12 months Bitcoin goes up enough that this isn't a problem"

The Wolf Of All Streets

46,399 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

If you buy 1 bitcoin on an exchange (or buy 1 bitcoin directly to cold storage at Unchained), you're not actually buying 1 bitcoin. You're buying 100,000,000 bitcoins. Values in bitcoin are something called 64-bit integers, where 1 coin is represented within Bitcoin Core, the bitcoin software, as 100,000,000 units. Satoshi didn’t suggest we can name these smaller units something else. He suggested we call it bitcoin. Similar to a stock split. The smallest unit is still called a share of Apple, Amazon, or another company, but previous shareholders might receive 2 shares for 1, 8 shares for 1 or even more. So 1 bitcoin really equals 100,000,000 bitcoins.

If you buy 1 bitcoin on an exchange (or buy 1 bitcoin directly to cold storage at Unchained), you're not actually buying 1 bitcoin. You're buying 100,000,000 bitcoins. Values in bitcoin are something called 64-bit integers, where 1 coin is represented within Bitcoin Core, the bitcoin software, as 100,000,000 units. Satoshi didn’t suggest we can name these smaller units something else. He suggested we call it bitcoin. Similar to a stock split. The smallest unit is still called a share of Apple, Amazon, or another company, but previous shareholders might receive 2 shares for 1, 8 shares for 1 or even more. So 1 bitcoin really equals 100,000,000 bitcoins.

Joe Burnett, MSBA

291,300 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Steven Lubka ☀️

29,280 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has spent years building its 847,363 BTC balance sheet. That stack exists to create optionality. When the company’s securities become materially mispriced, Bitcoin itself becomes another capital allocation tool. $STRC shareholders don’t measure success by how many Bitcoin the company buys next week. They measure management’s ability to protect the structure, maintain confidence, and continue servicing the product over the long term. $MSTR shareholders understand something equally important. The faster Strategy can rely on $STRC as its primary capital engine, the less dependent it becomes on common equity issuance, making future Bitcoin accumulation increasingly accretive over time. These aren’t competing objectives. Protecting Digital Credit protects access to capital. Access to capital grows the Bitcoin treasury. And a larger Bitcoin treasury gives management even greater flexibility to defend the structure whenever the market misprices it. That’s the dynamic I don’t expect speculators to fully understand. That’s the dynamic that can take this company to a trillion. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has spent years building its 847,363 BTC balance sheet. That stack exists to create optionality. When the company’s securities become materially mispriced, Bitcoin itself becomes another capital allocation tool. $STRC shareholders don’t measure success by how many Bitcoin the company buys next week. They measure management’s ability to protect the structure, maintain confidence, and continue servicing the product over the long term. $MSTR shareholders understand something equally important. The faster Strategy can rely on $STRC as its primary capital engine, the less dependent it becomes on common equity issuance, making future Bitcoin accumulation increasingly accretive over time. These aren’t competing objectives. Protecting Digital Credit protects access to capital. Access to capital grows the Bitcoin treasury. And a larger Bitcoin treasury gives management even greater flexibility to defend the structure whenever the market misprices it. That’s the dynamic I don’t expect speculators to fully understand. That’s the dynamic that can take this company to a trillion. Mission Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC

Zaid 🟧

13,766 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

"There's a very major difference between no choices and no great choices. Right now in the very short term, he doesn't have great choices. But he has plenty of options" "Where people are conflating this on social media is there are people who think it's in a death spiral and it's over" "He has to slightly dilute MicroStrategy shareholders to add back to the cash reserve and buy more Bitcoin. I can see an argument for saying stop buying Bitcoin for a while, bro. That could be rational. I can see an argument that they should have not paid off the convertible note for $1.3 billion because that sparked all of this" "But they're adding back to that cash reserve every single week. I can see all the negative arguments, but he has plenty of options that are slightly dilutive in the short term to shore up the balance sheet"

"There's a very major difference between no choices and no great choices. Right now in the very short term, he doesn't have great choices. But he has plenty of options" "Where people are conflating this on social media is there are people who think it's in a death spiral and it's over" "He has to slightly dilute MicroStrategy shareholders to add back to the cash reserve and buy more Bitcoin. I can see an argument for saying stop buying Bitcoin for a while, bro. That could be rational. I can see an argument that they should have not paid off the convertible note for $1.3 billion because that sparked all of this" "But they're adding back to that cash reserve every single week. I can see all the negative arguments, but he has plenty of options that are slightly dilutive in the short term to shore up the balance sheet"

The Wolf Of All Streets

31,712 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Once again the mainstream media proving that they are either completely incompetent or totally corrupted. Either way, the signal is strong: defund them, and the governments they protect. As I said at BTC Prague: buy bitcoin for freedom go up!

Once again the mainstream media proving that they are either completely incompetent or totally corrupted. Either way, the signal is strong: defund them, and the governments they protect. As I said at BTC Prague: buy bitcoin for freedom go up!

Richard Byworth ∞/21M

24,597 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Does Size Matter? $ASST vs. $MSTR - Who is guaranteed to outperform? Selling perpetual liabilities allows for the ability to manage amplification ratios, but does not provide value in isolation. MSTR has achieved enough scale where they can influence the Bitcoin markets. It could be argued that non accretive equity issuance could be net positive as they increase Bitcoin's terminal price. Over time, cost of capital will matter. For MSTR, higher costs of capital may increase Bitcoin's long term CAGR.

Does Size Matter? $ASST vs. $MSTR - Who is guaranteed to outperform? Selling perpetual liabilities allows for the ability to manage amplification ratios, but does not provide value in isolation. MSTR has achieved enough scale where they can influence the Bitcoin markets. It could be argued that non accretive equity issuance could be net positive as they increase Bitcoin's terminal price. Over time, cost of capital will matter. For MSTR, higher costs of capital may increase Bitcoin's long term CAGR.

Dan Hillery

14,439 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,212 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

When you think Bitcoin is done, someone is still buying. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, just said that despite the recent market downturn, they are still continuously buying Bitcoin. He remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin and has said, “When you truly study Bitcoin, you naturally gravitate toward it. Entering early may come with volatility, but the rewards ultimately go to those who position themselves ahead of time. We are still in the early stages of the Bitcoin market.” Don’t wait for the perfect bottom

When you think Bitcoin is done, someone is still buying. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, just said that despite the recent market downturn, they are still continuously buying Bitcoin. He remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin and has said, “When you truly study Bitcoin, you naturally gravitate toward it. Entering early may come with volatility, but the rewards ultimately go to those who position themselves ahead of time. We are still in the early stages of the Bitcoin market.” Don’t wait for the perfect bottom

Shawn

69,931 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten