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Daulton Varsho: Catch Probability 25%... he now has an MLB-leading 11 "non-routine" outfield outs this season (oh, and the jump was absolutely elite too)

Chris Black

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326,705 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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Daulton Varsho: *3rd 5% catch probability catch of his career *6th 5% catch probability catch by a Jay in the Statcast era (Varsho only guy with more than 1) *14th 5% catch probability catch in MLB this season (Varsho 1 of 2 players with more than 1) #PlatinumGlove

Daulton Varsho: 3rd 5% catch probability catch of his career 6th 5% catch probability catch by a Jay in the Statcast era (Varsho only guy with more than 1) *14th 5% catch probability catch in MLB this season (Varsho 1 of 2 players with more than 1) #PlatinumGlove

Chris Black

39,940 views • 2 years ago

Is this THE PLAY?! Daulton Varsho makes an amazing catch to keep Dylan Cease's no-hitter intact 👏

Is this THE PLAY?! Daulton Varsho makes an amazing catch to keep Dylan Cease's no-hitter intact 👏

MLB

344,096 views • 20 days ago

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

The WARmonger

324,242 views • 1 year ago

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

The WARmonger

958,386 views • 1 year ago

Another PCA Classic yesterday, the difficult play he makes look routine. Just 40% catch prob. What is the eye test missing? Great jump, elite speed, and he was positioned well into right-center.

Another PCA Classic yesterday, the difficult play he makes look routine. Just 40% catch prob. What is the eye test missing? Great jump, elite speed, and he was positioned well into right-center.

The WARmonger

163,335 views • 3 months ago

Pretty routine catch by Cam Smith, no? No. Only 60% of MLB outfielders catch this ball, and most make it look much tougher, many even diving. Why? It's what happens before the camera is on the play. The jump, and then the route. Jump: +5.6 feet above average Route: 99% route efficiency (Oh, and he homered twice as well, let the kids play!)

Pretty routine catch by Cam Smith, no? No. Only 60% of MLB outfielders catch this ball, and most make it look much tougher, many even diving. Why? It's what happens before the camera is on the play. The jump, and then the route. Jump: +5.6 feet above average Route: 99% route efficiency (Oh, and he homered twice as well, let the kids play!)

The WARmonger

318,530 views • 1 year ago

I've probably watched this play 25 times. 75% probability. Crow-Armstrong only needs to get to 25 ft/sec, he has 30+ ft/sec at his disposal. As somebody who watches A LOT of outfield plays, there are dozens of guys who turn this into a Catch of the Year nominee...

I've probably watched this play 25 times. 75% probability. Crow-Armstrong only needs to get to 25 ft/sec, he has 30+ ft/sec at his disposal. As somebody who watches A LOT of outfield plays, there are dozens of guys who turn this into a Catch of the Year nominee...

The WARmonger

539,422 views • 1 year ago

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

The WARmonger

237,660 views • 28 days ago

You didn't notice this play, did you? Not a single request. Makes sense, he didn't even need to dive. 35% catch probability. Isaac Collins is #1 in the league in jumps, leading PCA and Rafaela by nearly two feet. His jump on this ball was +11.7 feet above average, just astounding. Collins had to cover 115 feet. He makes it look incredibly easy, all due to that jump.

You didn't notice this play, did you? Not a single request. Makes sense, he didn't even need to dive. 35% catch probability. Isaac Collins is #1 in the league in jumps, leading PCA and Rafaela by nearly two feet. His jump on this ball was +11.7 feet above average, just astounding. Collins had to cover 115 feet. He makes it look incredibly easy, all due to that jump.

The WARmonger

356,852 views • 1 year ago

🚨WEIRD SCORING RULE ALERT🚨 This is from today’s SFGiants at Colorado Rockies game. This was ruled a pop out and an RBI, but not a sacrifice fly. The rule in MLB is a sacrifice fly must be caught by an outfielder, or an infielder running into the outfield. I believe this will get appealed and changed as Devers is running into the outfield, and the fact that he stopped running to catch it doesn’t negate that. The scorer might be ruling this not a sacrifice fly because it was caught by an infielder, missing the “infielder running into the outfield” caveat. In college, this is a sacrifice fly because college doesn’t have the infielder rule.

🚨WEIRD SCORING RULE ALERT🚨 This is from today’s SFGiants at Colorado Rockies game. This was ruled a pop out and an RBI, but not a sacrifice fly. The rule in MLB is a sacrifice fly must be caught by an outfielder, or an infielder running into the outfield. I believe this will get appealed and changed as Devers is running into the outfield, and the fact that he stopped running to catch it doesn’t negate that. The scorer might be ruling this not a sacrifice fly because it was caught by an infielder, missing the “infielder running into the outfield” caveat. In college, this is a sacrifice fly because college doesn’t have the infielder rule.

MLB Scoring Changes

79,746 views • 1 month ago

This ball had a 85% catch probability for jASSon Dominguez and he was the furthest one from it 😭😭😭

This ball had a 85% catch probability for jASSon Dominguez and he was the furthest one from it 😭😭😭

KutterIsKing

327,191 views • 11 months ago

Not to be a hater right now but this play had an 85% catch probability. Freeman has picked it up with the bat and its great to see but I do not think he is a centerfielder at all.

Not to be a hater right now but this play had an 85% catch probability. Freeman has picked it up with the bat and its great to see but I do not think he is a centerfielder at all.

mlbfeeelit

1,452,125 views • 2 years ago

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

The WARmonger

344,836 views • 1 year ago

Statcast gave Leody Taveras a 60% catch probability on this two-out double from Jesús Sánchez. Taveras' jump was negative 9.6 feet, per Statcast. This double drove in one run and the Blue Jays scored another later in the inning.

Statcast gave Leody Taveras a 60% catch probability on this two-out double from Jesús Sánchez. Taveras' jump was negative 9.6 feet, per Statcast. This double drove in one run and the Blue Jays scored another later in the inning.

Jacob Calvin Meyer

26,052 views • 1 month ago

Nico Hoerner’s elite defense has flown under the radar this season. Heres how he ranks among all MLB second basemen: 9 DRS (1st) 8 OAA (1st) 6 FRV (1st) 6.6 Def (1st)

Nico Hoerner’s elite defense has flown under the radar this season. Heres how he ranks among all MLB second basemen: 9 DRS (1st) 8 OAA (1st) 6 FRV (1st) 6.6 Def (1st)

The Wrigley Wire

26,470 views • 1 year ago

This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

The WARmonger

437,897 views • 1 year ago

CJ Abrams has a HR and a triple in the last three innings. The first tied the game. The second gave the Nats a lead in extras. Abrams is leading MLB in RBI. He’s on pace for an astounding 142 RBI this season.

CJ Abrams has a HR and a triple in the last three innings. The first tied the game. The second gave the Nats a lead in extras. Abrams is leading MLB in RBI. He’s on pace for an astounding 142 RBI this season.

Grant Paulsen

17,133 views • 2 months ago

Get your "glazing Pete Crow-Armstrong" pitchforks out, because here's another one! And he actually caught it this time... Just a 20% catch probability, but he makes it look so easy. Most MLB outfielders aren't catching this at all, and certainly not with a casual slide. Why? Per usual for him, the jump and route efficiency. +8.3 feet above average (43 feet total, another top 10 of these), and a 97.3% route efficiency.

Get your "glazing Pete Crow-Armstrong" pitchforks out, because here's another one! And he actually caught it this time... Just a 20% catch probability, but he makes it look so easy. Most MLB outfielders aren't catching this at all, and certainly not with a casual slide. Why? Per usual for him, the jump and route efficiency. +8.3 feet above average (43 feet total, another top 10 of these), and a 97.3% route efficiency.

The WARmonger

277,528 views • 1 year ago

I just noticed that Andy Pages has a new "best catch of the year" according to catch probability, and it's a great example of how watching the advanced stats can tell you things you won't get from watching on TV. This was the last play of the game last Wednesday. Bogaerts hit the ball 102.3 MPH at a 15° launch angle, and Pages covered 45 feet in 2.9 seconds and did it so efficiently he didn't even have to leave his feet. Statcast has it at just a 5% catch probability.

I just noticed that Andy Pages has a new "best catch of the year" according to catch probability, and it's a great example of how watching the advanced stats can tell you things you won't get from watching on TV. This was the last play of the game last Wednesday. Bogaerts hit the ball 102.3 MPH at a 15° launch angle, and Pages covered 45 feet in 2.9 seconds and did it so efficiently he didn't even have to leave his feet. Statcast has it at just a 5% catch probability.

Jeff J. Snider

121,230 views • 2 months ago

CharMar Brown has been underrated all season. Was the best FR RB in the FCS last season at NDSU. Had over 1,100 rushing yards. Been solid this season two big TDs last two games just nature of the game he is RB2 to an elite RB in Mark Fletcher Jr.

CharMar Brown has been underrated all season. Was the best FR RB in the FCS last season at NDSU. Had over 1,100 rushing yards. Been solid this season two big TDs last two games just nature of the game he is RB2 to an elite RB in Mark Fletcher Jr.

Garrett Armbrust

22,439 views • 6 months ago