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David Einhorn says the hedge fund industry is only about $2.5-3 trillion while mutual funds are more than 10x larger - and as trillions moved from active managers into passive funds, he thinks value investing got effectively wiped out: “the value investing industry... is defeated, so to speak” this...

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ludoonchart

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171,751 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 24

Фото профиля Alex
Alex1 месяц назад

Pretty incredible cope from David here. He doesn’t underpeform because of indexing. He’s just a mediocre investor.

Фото профиля Skyler Weinand
Skyler Weinand1 месяц назад

Sounds like he is relying on greater fool theory to profit. How is that different than Bitcoin?

Фото профиля Reygesa
Reygesa1 месяц назад

He should probably focus outside of the US. There are plenty of inefficient markets where he could make a killing.

Фото профиля HFL
HFL1 месяц назад

At 4&5x aren’t they effectively buyout candidates. At that level you should be able to buy them and pay for them with cash flow

Фото профиля Flash Capital
Flash Capital1 месяц назад

there are no excuses. trade the market in front of you

Фото профиля Will Sheehan
Will Sheehan1 месяц назад

The retail investor can now rerate, 30% of the market is now retail investors following COVID. Sitting at home people start to look at who, why, and where their money was invested… and said I can do better.

Фото профиля WOODY
WOODY1 месяц назад

Doesn't make sense to me. If they are 10-11x and good value they should return 10%+ annually to shareholders. If management isn't willing or able to do that, then it deserves a shitty multiple.

Фото профиля Rich Goldman
Rich Goldman1 месяц назад

According to these guidelines, Einhorn should logically be long precious metals miners big time. What other group has this kind of earnings growth and free cash flow?

Фото профиля Alex
Alex1 месяц назад

I would make an educated guess that what's happening here is that Einhorn's strategy relies on 1. a higher degree of modeling precision 2. shorter timeframes 3. and more positions than most value investors' portfolios.

Фото профиля Atenov int.
Atenov int.1 месяц назад

The thing I would push back on is the idea that value got wiped out

Фото профиля Convexity Cowboy
Convexity Cowboy1 месяц назад

They used to buy and then pump the stock to sell side strats, so they could then flip the stock to the active value mutual funds. Now they have nobody to dump it on.

Фото профиля Seixas
Seixas26 дней назад

Passive didn't kill value investing. It just made the edge quieter. When trillions chase the same index, mispricing hangs around longer for whoever still reads the filings.

Фото профиля Cave Man
Cave Man1 месяц назад

A big risk in this strategy is private equity taking over for a small 20-30% premium, yet 100% downside potential. Doing a Buffett style rescue capital loan (8-10% preferred with a warrant attached) could help.

Фото профиля ✝️ Faith Notes 🇻🇦
✝️ Faith Notes 🇻🇦1 месяц назад

Very insightful, thanks for sharing.

Фото профиля Insider Stock Picks
Insider Stock Picks1 месяц назад

Passive flows changed the valuation game.

Фото профиля Sophie
Sophie1 месяц назад

Wait, so value investing is basically dead because everyone moved to passive funds? That's wild - cheap stocks just stay cheap forever now? How does

Фото профиля yikes!
yikes!1 месяц назад

All looks different when market retraces 30 percent

Фото профиля Ismael Navarrina Martinez
Ismael Navarrina Martinez1 месяц назад

Qué piensas @foso_defensivo ….?

Фото профиля john rhenyxz lim
john rhenyxz lim1 месяц назад

Einhorn's blaming passivity, but the real killer was mega-cap tech concentration in the very indices that money chases. Passive just delivered whatever the index served, and the index served one flavor. Also, value ripped from 2020 to 2022, so the obituary reads a little early.

Фото профиля itamar tsror
itamar tsror1 месяц назад

Who does price discovery then?

Фото профиля alphabrody
alphabrody1 месяц назад

the buyback becomes the catalyst when the market won’t rerate you

Фото профиля 華爾街分析猿
華爾街分析猿1 месяц назад

Yes. Prices have to move if the stock pays dividends.

Фото профиля Hachiware
Hachiware1 месяц назад

He should anchor my fund

Фото профиля Capitano Jacko
Capitano Jacko1 месяц назад

Is the The People’s Court? Waiting for Wapner to make an entrance

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David Einhorn started Greenlight with just $900,000 in 1996 - and nearly 30 years later he says the industry that taught him how to invest has basically been wiped out: “the value investing industry... is defeated, so to speak” this is him explaining why trillions moving into passive funds killed off entire research teams, why most trading today has “nothing to do with value,” and why that actually leaves more mispriced stocks for the few investors still willing to figure out what a business is worth Einhorn says even if Greenlight does a really good job, they’ll still be wrong roughly 30-35% of the time: “the best advice I’ve ever received in managing a portfolio is: as soon as you know that you’re wrong, change your mind” bookmark and watch the full interview below
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Warren Buffett was asked if anyone could turn $10,000 into $15 million using Ben Graham's principles: "yes, if they didn't try and do too much the first week, it requires patience which a lot of people don't have" "why doesn't everybody do it?" he answered - "because people would much rather be promised that they're going to win a lottery ticket next week than that they're going to get rich slowly" this is him explaining why he doesn't care if the stock exchange closes for two years, why he refuses to buy high-tech companies he can't predict, and what he says is the single biggest trap for investors in volatile markets "if your stock goes down 10% and that upsets you, it means you think the market knows more about the business than you do, and in that case, you're the patsy" "if you're in a poker game for 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy" bookmark & watch this video below
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Warren Buffett was asked if anyone could turn $10,000 into $15 million using Ben Graham's principles: "yes, if they didn't try and do too much the first week, it requires patience which a lot of people don't have" "why doesn't everybody do it?" he answered - "because people would much rather be promised that they're going to win a lottery ticket next week than that they're going to get rich slowly" this is him explaining why he doesn't care if the stock exchange closes for two years, why he refuses to buy high-tech companies he can't predict, and what he says is the single biggest trap for investors in volatile markets "if your stock goes down 10% and that upsets you, it means you think the market knows more about the business than you do, and in that case, you're the patsy" "if you're in a poker game for 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy" bookmark & watch this video below

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"If I get to be 85 and you came to me on my deathbed and said, you know what, you could have made 50 basis points more or 25 basis points more a year by investing in index funds instead of doing what you did, value companies and buy cheap companies. And he asked me, are you okay with that? My answer is yes. I'm okay with not beating the market. And that I think is critical, because if you keep telling yourself, I did the right thing, therefore I should beat the market. Therein lie the seeds for being righteous, for being indignant, for getting angry. I mean, when you get angry at markets, nothing good comes out of that." Full episiode:
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"If I get to be 85 and you came to me on my deathbed and said, you know what, you could have made 50 basis points more or 25 basis points more a year by investing in index funds instead of doing what you did, value companies and buy cheap companies. And he asked me, are you okay with that? My answer is yes. I'm okay with not beating the market. And that I think is critical, because if you keep telling yourself, I did the right thing, therefore I should beat the market. Therein lie the seeds for being righteous, for being indignant, for getting angry. I mean, when you get angry at markets, nothing good comes out of that." Full episiode:

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211,860 просмотров • 2 лет назад

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2:11

"Constipated." That is the word now being used for the private credit market. And it is exactly what this looks like. The private credit story is changing. For months it was framed as a liquidity problem. Investors trying to pull their money out. That is still a huge problem. BlackRock just had a couple of funds suffering big runs. But there is a bigger one. It is no longer just the investors who want out. It is the investors outside who no longer want in. And that is the much bigger story. Because the private credit boom was built on flows. Constant inflows from wealth managers, pensions, insurance companies, and the general public. That is how big it got. The machine has to keep moving. Money comes in. Loans get made. Funds grow. Redemptions get handled. Managers collect their fees. Everyone pretends it is calm because the marks are smooth and the exits are limited. Now the machine is reversing. Reuters reported US direct lending issuance in the three months ending May was down roughly 40% from the first quarter. Issuance to private-equity-backed borrowers dropped nearly 37%. Volume tied to leveraged buyouts fell about 34%. So this is no longer just a redemption story. The exits are clogged. New money is hesitant. Sellers will not cut prices, and buyers will not pay yesterday's valuations. Credit funds are handling redemptions. Leveraged loans are showing strain. And publicly traded BDCs are not rebounding, even as the broader market soars. So the question is no longer whether investors are still withdrawing. They are, and it is accelerating. It is not about the people inside who want out. It is about the people outside who no longer want in. That is the bigger problem. It pushes us deeper into stage two, and the odds of stage three go up from here.

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24,551 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.
1:24

One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.

Pankaj Tibrewal

28,465 просмотров • 1 год назад

PULTE: "Fannie and Freddie have WAY more liquidity than we know what to do with. They've mortgage markets are very sound. The mortgages we're underwriting are not like they were in 2008... the companies are making more money than ever." PULTE: "We are looking at everything and anything that can bring down the cost of homes. That includes portable mortgages... Davos is going to be very exciting for housing." Reporter: "How does this bond plan impact the conversation on privatization?" PULTE: "I think that the IPO can still very much happen and in some cases, people say it will actually be better because the earnings of the companies will go up... we've been investing in cash and we've been investing in US Treasuries and those have a lower yield than the mortgage bonds do, so I think you're going to see at least several hundred million dollars of incremental earnings at Fannie and Freddie from these MBS purchases. So it has a double effect. It's great for the American people and it's also potentially good for a prospective IPO if the President decides that he wants to take it [public] with an IPO." Pulte #davos2026 $FNMA $FMCC
0:52

PULTE: "Fannie and Freddie have WAY more liquidity than we know what to do with. They've mortgage markets are very sound. The mortgages we're underwriting are not like they were in 2008... the companies are making more money than ever." PULTE: "We are looking at everything and anything that can bring down the cost of homes. That includes portable mortgages... Davos is going to be very exciting for housing." Reporter: "How does this bond plan impact the conversation on privatization?" PULTE: "I think that the IPO can still very much happen and in some cases, people say it will actually be better because the earnings of the companies will go up... we've been investing in cash and we've been investing in US Treasuries and those have a lower yield than the mortgage bonds do, so I think you're going to see at least several hundred million dollars of incremental earnings at Fannie and Freddie from these MBS purchases. So it has a double effect. It's great for the American people and it's also potentially good for a prospective IPO if the President decides that he wants to take it [public] with an IPO." Pulte #davos2026 $FNMA $FMCC

Hand of God

21,375 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch
46:25

If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch

Daniel Mahncke

493,303 просмотров • 3 лет назад

Ron Baron just dropped the exact secret that has kept his $40 billion fund insanely profitable for 40 years straight "most traders stare at spreadsheets trying to predict a 5% earnings beat next quarter - we throw away the short-term models, we only care if the founder is absolutely obsessed" "the crowd buys 20 random stocks because some analyst upgraded them on tv - we will spend 3 years studying a single ceo and their factory floor before we invest a single dollar" "average investors try to guess where the economy is going next month - we find one generational genius, give them $1 billion, and completely get out of their way for 15 years" Baron didn't make his money by timing the market or using complex trading algorithms. he made it by finding the smartest, most ruthless founders on earth and riding their coattails for decades. watch his full keynote where he breaks down this exact strategy
32:35

Ron Baron just dropped the exact secret that has kept his $40 billion fund insanely profitable for 40 years straight "most traders stare at spreadsheets trying to predict a 5% earnings beat next quarter - we throw away the short-term models, we only care if the founder is absolutely obsessed" "the crowd buys 20 random stocks because some analyst upgraded them on tv - we will spend 3 years studying a single ceo and their factory floor before we invest a single dollar" "average investors try to guess where the economy is going next month - we find one generational genius, give them $1 billion, and completely get out of their way for 15 years" Baron didn't make his money by timing the market or using complex trading algorithms. he made it by finding the smartest, most ruthless founders on earth and riding their coattails for decades. watch his full keynote where he breaks down this exact strategy

ludoonchart

139,716 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

#WATCH | Mumbai, MH: On broad market valuations, Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President and Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, says, "...Whenever we faced any crisis in the last 20 to 25 years, such as crude oil reaching $120 to $130, the market typically corrected by more than 30% to 35%. However, this time, the market has corrected by only 15% to 20%... About two years ago, the Nifty was trading at 20 times its forward earnings, whereas now it is quoting at 17 times its one-year forward earnings. So broadly, the market is available at decent valuations. Yes, there is a possibility that we may see a further correction of around 5%. The Nifty could drop from 17 times to 16 times forward earnings if conditions deteriorate..." On foreign capital flows, he adds, "...If we look at global macros over the last two years, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen significantly. It went from around 0.35% during the COVID-19 pandemic to around 3%, and now stands at 4.5% to 4.7%, offering attractive returns. That is why Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are currently more interested in bonds... Additionally, our markets lack a strong presence of AI-driven companies, which may also explain why FIIs are not investing heavily in Indian markets right now. However, looking at the long term, given the rally in AI-driven stocks and the potential limits to their further gains, we can expect capital flows to return to our markets because India offers a more diversified market..."
4:25

#WATCH | Mumbai, MH: On broad market valuations, Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President and Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, says, "...Whenever we faced any crisis in the last 20 to 25 years, such as crude oil reaching $120 to $130, the market typically corrected by more than 30% to 35%. However, this time, the market has corrected by only 15% to 20%... About two years ago, the Nifty was trading at 20 times its forward earnings, whereas now it is quoting at 17 times its one-year forward earnings. So broadly, the market is available at decent valuations. Yes, there is a possibility that we may see a further correction of around 5%. The Nifty could drop from 17 times to 16 times forward earnings if conditions deteriorate..." On foreign capital flows, he adds, "...If we look at global macros over the last two years, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen significantly. It went from around 0.35% during the COVID-19 pandemic to around 3%, and now stands at 4.5% to 4.7%, offering attractive returns. That is why Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are currently more interested in bonds... Additionally, our markets lack a strong presence of AI-driven companies, which may also explain why FIIs are not investing heavily in Indian markets right now. However, looking at the long term, given the rally in AI-driven stocks and the potential limits to their further gains, we can expect capital flows to return to our markets because India offers a more diversified market..."

ANI

15,308 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

In a 1992 address to the Omaha Press Club, Warren Buffett explained why 90% of successful investing is simply assigning yourself the right reporting story: "investors and journalists are in the exact same business, you assign yourself a story, do the research, and figure out what a company is actually worth" "why don't journalists buy the stocks they cover?" - "because their brains aren't connected to their eyeballs, they do all the research to figure out what a business is worth and then just move on to the next assignment" this is him explaining why he treats dealing with the media like making love to a porcupine, why there is zero correlation between a newspaper's quality and its profitability, and why he avoids giving individual stock interviews to reporters who are just quotation shopping "in 1973, the entire Washington Post was selling for $80 million while its assets were worth $400 million, any reporter who assigned themselves that story for one hour a day could have made a fortune" "the big stories in the world happen one inch at a time over decades, but news organizations ignore them because there is no dramatic daily news peg" bookmark this masterclass & watch below
53:52

In a 1992 address to the Omaha Press Club, Warren Buffett explained why 90% of successful investing is simply assigning yourself the right reporting story: "investors and journalists are in the exact same business, you assign yourself a story, do the research, and figure out what a company is actually worth" "why don't journalists buy the stocks they cover?" - "because their brains aren't connected to their eyeballs, they do all the research to figure out what a business is worth and then just move on to the next assignment" this is him explaining why he treats dealing with the media like making love to a porcupine, why there is zero correlation between a newspaper's quality and its profitability, and why he avoids giving individual stock interviews to reporters who are just quotation shopping "in 1973, the entire Washington Post was selling for $80 million while its assets were worth $400 million, any reporter who assigned themselves that story for one hour a day could have made a fortune" "the big stories in the world happen one inch at a time over decades, but news organizations ignore them because there is no dramatic daily news peg" bookmark this masterclass & watch below

ludoonchart

23,984 просмотров • 1 месяц назад