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Warren Buffett was asked if anyone could turn $10,000 into $15 million using Ben Graham's principles: "yes, if they didn't try and do too much the first week, it requires patience which a lot of people don't have" "why doesn't everybody do it?" he answered - "because people would...

110,205 次观看 • 9 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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.Rob Miles is spitting fire: “People are starting from a prior in which ‘[AIs] are safe until you give me an airtight case for why they're dangerous.’ This framing is exhausting. You explain one of the 10,000 ways that AIs could be dangerous, then they explain why they don't think that specific thing would happen. Then you have to change tack, and then they say, 'your story keeps changing'... "If you're building an AGI, it's like building a Saturn V rocket [but with every human on it]. It's a complex, difficult engineering task, and you're going to try and make it aligned, which means it's going to deliver people to the moon and home again. People ask “why assume they won't just land on the Moon and return home safely?" And I'm like, because you don't know what you're doing! If you try to send people to the moon and you don't know what you're doing, your astronauts will die. [Unlike the telephone, or electricity, where you can assume it’s probably going to work out okay] I contend that ASI is more like the moon rocket. "The moon is small compared with the rest of the sky, so you don't get to the moon by default - you hit some part of the sky that isn't the moon. So, show me the plan by which you predict to specifically hit the moon." And then people say, “how do you predict that [AIs] will want bad things?” There's more bad things than good things! It's not actually a complicated argument... I'm not going to predict specifically where it off into random space your astronauts are going, but you're not going to hit the moon unless you have a really good, technically clear plan for how you do it. And if you ask these people for their plan, they don't have one. What's Yann Lecun’s plan?” "I think that if you're building an enormously powerful technology and you have a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen, this is bad. Like, this is default unsafe. If you've got something that's going to do enormously influential things in the world, and you don't know what enormously influential things it's going to do, this thing is unsafe until you can convince me that it's safe." HOST: “That’s a good way of thinking about it - with some technologies you can assume that the default will be good or at least neutral, or that the capacity of a person to use this in a very bad way is bounded somehow. There's just only so many people you could electrocute one by one."

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️

77,361 次观看 • 3 年前

Peter Lynch, the man who turned $20 million into $14 billion running Fidelity's Magellan Fund, averaging 29.2% annual returns for 13 straight years (Save this). And his most famous lesson is the simplest one: "Know what you own, and know why you own it." He's talking about something that happens every day, people spend hours researching which refrigerator to buy. They'll spend days hunting for the best airfare deal to save $50 then they'll hear a stock tip on the bus and drop $10,000 on it without a second thought. "The reason I own this is the sucker is going up" Lynch said that's the actual answer he gets when he presses most investors on why they own a stock and that, he says, is not a reason. His test is brutal and simple, if you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock, you shouldn't own it because if you don't understand the business, you have no idea when to hold, when to add, or when to sell. You're just riding price movement blind. This is why most retail investors lose money not because they pick bad stocks but because they panic out of good ones during normal volatility. When you don't understand why you own something, every 10% dip feels like a reason to sell. Lynch built his entire career on the opposite approach, find simple businesses, understand exactly what they do, know why they'll be worth more in five years, and hold with conviction while everyone else panics. The most important thing isn't your stock screener or your price target but rather being able to look at what you own and say, I understand this, I know why it goes up, and I can handle it going down 30% without losing my mind.

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170,341 次观看 • 3 个月前

Jordan Peterson: "If you're competent and silent you will be ignored." "You might think well people should reward you because you're competent. And yes of course they should. But if you're competent and silent then you're just part of the background that's keeping everything functioning" On why you cannot negotiate from a position of weakness: "If you want to push your career forward you have to push it forward. You have to be competent and you have to be strategic" "To be strategic when you negotiate for a new position or a new salary you have to be able to say if you don't give me what I want then something you don't like will happen to you" "It's not a physical threat. It's that you have an option" "You have your CV in order. You're educated and competent and desirable to people outside of your immediate job. You're willing to instantly put yourself on the job market" "So that when you go talk to the person you're negotiating with you're credible" On the one thing most people completely miss about negotiation: "It's very seldom that you're talking to the person who's at the top of the pecking order. What you need to do is tell them a story that they can tell to their boss to make you not a problem" "A good story is look we really need this person because they're hyper competent and they have a better offer" "If you go in there with no power you're going to lose. Obviously" He concludes with the one thing every competent person needs to hear: "The first thing you need to know if you're going to negotiate is that you have to be able to say no. And what no means is that you're not going to do it"

Brad

34,992 次观看 • 14 天前

Mark Zuckerberg explains why he has never believed in delegation (and why founders shouldn't either): Most CEOs believe their job is to hire great people and get out of the way, but Mark disagrees. "I basically don't believe in delegation." He explains his thinking: "There's so much going on across the company that I can't possibly get involved in all of it. So all these people are going to have a ton of stuff that they're going to do." But that's not a reason to step back. It's a reason to be selective and then go deep. "Fundamentally, if there is a decision that I want to be involved with, I'm going to be involved in it." His argument is simple: if you're the one accountable for everything, why would you ever accept being locked out of something important? "If you're running the company and you're on the hook for everything and there's something that's important at whatever level of detail in the organization, I don't get the logic of saying I'm not going to be involved in that." He's not calling for micromanagement, and he acknowledges he can't be everywhere. What he's rejecting is the idea that hierarchy should be a barrier. That founders should stay in their lane. That diving into the details is somehow a sign of poor leadership. Mark Zuckerberg does add one caveat: "You want to have humility and know that if you're diving into some decision, you may not have the most context immediately." But humility about context is different from staying out entirely. His conclusion is a cultural one: "You want to have the cultural expectation that things are not going to be so hierarchical and you're just going to dive into whatever you want."

Big Brain Business

20,055 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jordan Peterson: "If you can't fix your room, you can't fix your life" "Why should you even bother improving yourself? The answer is something like: so you don't suffer anymore stupidly than you have to. And maybe so others don't have to either. It's not some casual self-help doctrine. If you don't organize yourself properly, you'll pay for it. In a big way. And so will the people around you." Peterson continues: "You can say, 'Well, I don't care about that.' But that's actually not true, you do care about it. Because if you're in pain, you will care about it. It's very rare that you can find someone in excruciating pain who would say, 'Well, it would be no better if I was out of this.' Pain brings the idea that it would be better if it didn't exist along with it. It's incontrovertible." On how to start: "Look around for something that bothers you and see if you can fix it. You can do this in a room. Sit in your bedroom and think: 'If I wanted to spend ten minutes making this room better, what would I have to do?' You have to ask yourself that, it's a genuine question. And things will pop out. There's a stack of papers bugging you. Some rubbish behind your computer monitor you haven't attended to for six months. Cables tangled up." He explains why this matters: "If you were coming to see me for psychotherapy, the easiest thing would be to get you to organize your room. You think, is that psychotherapy? It depends on how you conceive the limits of your being. Start where you can start. If something announces itself as in need of repair that you could repair, fix it. Fix a hundred things like that, your life will be a lot different." On fixing what you repeat every day: "People tend to think of their daily routines as trivial. You get up, brush your teeth, have breakfast. Those probably constitute 50% of your life. People think, they're mundane, I don't need to pay attention to them. No, that's exactly wrong. The things you do every day are the most important things you do. Hands down. Just do the arithmetic." On staying within your competence: "Sometimes you don't know how to fix something. Imagine you're walking down the street and there's a guy who's alcoholic and schizophrenic and has been homeless for ten years. That's a problem. It would be good if you could fix it, but you haven't got a clue. You walk around that and go find something you could fix. Just because something announces itself as in need of repair doesn't mean it's you, right then and there, who should repair it. You have to have some humility. You don't walk up to a helicopter that isn't working and just start tinkering away." Peterson shares the key insight: "As soon as you give your mind a genuine aim, it'll reconfigure the world in keeping with that aim. That's actually how you see to begin with. You've all seen the video where you watch basketballs being tossed back and forth, and while you're doing that, a gorilla walks into the middle of the video and you don't see it. If you thought about that experiment for five years, that would be about the right amount of time to spend thinking about it." He explains what it reveals: "What it shows you is that you see what you aim at. If you can get one thing through your head, that would be a good one. You see what you aim at. One inference you might draw from that is: be careful what you aim at. What you aim at determines the way the world manifests itself to you. So if the world is manifesting itself in a very negative way, one thing to ask is: are you aiming at the right thing?"

Jaynit

68,799 次观看 • 4 个月前

Google co-founder Larry Page on why aiming bigger is often easier than playing it safe: He shares a philosophy he picked up early on that shaped how he thinks about ambition and goal-setting: "I went to a leadership seminar once in Michigan where I came from and they have this great slogan which is have a healthy disregard for the impossible." He explains what that actually means in practice: "You should set really stretched goals that you're not sure you can achieve but are sort of reasonable. You don't want completely outlandish goals." Then he shares the counterintuitive insight that took him by surprise when he was building Google: "One thing that I didn't quite realize when I was starting Google is that it's often easier to have aggressive goals." Most people assume the opposite. They pick smaller, safer targets because they seem more attainable. But Larry argues that approach actually works against you: "A lot of times people pick very specific things they want to do because they think they'll be easier to attain. And what happens if you're being more specific, smaller markets, that kind of thing, you also get less resources." The real question isn't how much you need to get started. It's whether your idea holds up: "The question is, can you make a really good case for what you're doing? Does it make sense? Do you have a really big advantage?" He gives a concrete example: "If you're building robots that are 10 times less complicated than your competitors, that's probably a good business, right? And maybe it takes a lot of money to get started up, maybe it's easier than doing something simpler." Larry's closing point reframes the entire premise: "It's okay to solve a hard problem. That's why you get paid if you're a company."

Big Brain Business

11,961 次观看 • 3 个月前

Warren Buffett on the single best thing an investor could have done in 1942: At a recent shareholder meeting, Buffett explains that he normally goes straight into questions and answers. But this time he opened differently, because he felt the usual format was teaching the wrong lesson. As he puts it, "all the questions would naturally tend toward current events." So he went back to 1942, the year he bought his first stock, to make a point about everything that has happened since. "We've had 14 presidents, seven Republicans, seven Democrats. We've had world wars. We had 911. We had the Cuban missile crisis. We have all kinds of things." His lesson? None of it should have changed what you did with your money. "The best single thing you could have done on March 11th, 1942 when I bought my first stock was just buy an index fund and never look at a headline, never think about stocks anymore. Just like you would do if you bought a farm. You just buy the farm and let the tenant farmer run it for you." Then he gives the number. Buffett describes putting $10,000 into an index fund that reinvested dividends, and he pauses to let the audience guess what it would be worth. The answer: "it would come to $51 million now." The only belief required back then was simple: "The only thing you had to really believe in then is that America would win the war and that America would progress as it has ever since 1776. And that American business, if America moved forward, American business would move forward." Notice what he says you did NOT need: "You didn't have to worry about what stock to buy. You didn't have to worry what day to get in and out. You didn't know the Federal Reserve would exist."

Black Edge

16,436 次观看 • 3 个月前