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🚨DID MICROSOFT JUST BAN ITS ENGINEERS FROM USING AI? The company that poured $5 billion into Anthropic discovered that Claude Code was costing more than the humans it was supposed to replace — so they’re canceling nearly all licenses by the end of June. Uber’s CTO admitted their full-year...

19,103 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Microsoft is deceiving you by inflating its AI empire with money it handed its OWN customer first. They sold Wall Street a $37 billion AI business, then went silent the moment its own filing showed where that money came from. The line sits in the annual report for fiscal 2026: Microsoft recorded $24.1 billion of revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, including revenue sharing payments. If you run that figure against Microsoft's own AI disclosures you'll find that OpenAI made up more than half, and likely around 70%, of everything the company counts as AI sales. ONE customer. A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed the figure covers all sales and revenue share from OpenAI. The 70% comes by assuming Microsoft's AI run rate kept growing at the 123% pace the company itself reported in March, which is the company's own optimistic math turned around on it. Now follow where that money starts: Microsoft has put around $12 billion into OpenAI since 2019. OpenAI spends its cash on computing power, and Microsoft is the cloud provider selling it. So the money leaves as an investment and comes back as an Azure bill. Microsoft then books that bill as AI revenue and shows it to investors as proof the AI business is "working." Microsoft invests in OpenAI -> OpenAI buys Microsoft compute -> Microsoft records the payment as AI revenue -> the AI growth story goes to Wall Street And a chunk of it never actually arrived. The same filing shows $6 billion of accounts receivable from OpenAI as of June 30. That is $6 billion of AI revenue Microsoft booked and had not been paid when the year closed. Now here's where it gets really concerning for anyone holding the stock... Microsoft has told the public how big its total AI business is exactly twice. Once for the quarter ending December 2024, when it said the unit was on pace for more than $13 billion a year. And once for the quarter ending March 2026, when Satya Nadella put it on pace for $37 billion. That $37 billion number went everywhere. It was the headline proof that Microsoft had won the AI race. Then fourth quarter earnings arrived, and Microsoft did NOT update it. The company that had been announcing the figure as its own scoreboard stopped announcing the figure. In the same stretch, the filing landed showing where most of it came from. So what is actually left underneath? The full year AI business ran near $34 billion. Take OpenAI out and roughly $10 billion remains. Microsoft has spent about $261 billion on capital expenditure since the start of 2022. That is the scale of the bet against what the rest of the AI business currently brings in. And the one customer holding it up is walking further away every quarter. In October, Microsoft's stake in OpenAI dropped to 27% from 32.5%. In April the partnership was rewritten so OpenAI can sell its products across any cloud it likes, which is how Amazon got a seat at the table. The exclusivity that made this arrangement valuable is gone. The compute bill and the unpaid $6 billion are still on Microsoft's books. Nadella spent two years telling the market Microsoft built the largest AI business in software. The filing shows one client bought most of it, on credit, using money Microsoft partly supplied. So watch the next earnings call: If Microsoft puts a fresh total AI number back on the board, the business found customers beyond OpenAI. If you hear a lot about AI momentum and never hear what it adds up to, you already know why the number went missing. But nonetheless, how is something like this even legal?

Ricardo

24,389 次观看 • 1 个月前

Chamath said AI is not like the internet. Every new user costs real money. And the infrastructure making it possible was built by everyone. His argument was the clearest case for government ownership of AI labs I have ever heard. And it had nothing to do with Bernie Sanders. Start with the internet comparison. Google and Facebook became the most profitable companies in human history because of one number. The marginal cost of adding a new user was effectively zero. One more search query cost Google nothing. One more Facebook profile cost Meta nothing. They could serve a billion people and the incremental cost of that billion person was rounding error. That is the money printer. Infinite scale at zero marginal cost. AI breaks that model completely. Every single user taxes a GPU. Every query costs electricity. Every response requires memory and compute. The marginal cost of AI is real, significant, and does not disappear at scale. You cannot print money the same way. Then Chamath made the point that landed hardest. The infrastructure these companies depend on, the power grid, the land, the data centers, the permitting, the national security apparatus that protects their chips from being stolen, none of that was built by Anthropic or OpenAI. It was built by the public. By taxpayers. By decades of government investment in the physical and legal foundation these companies are now running on. He compared it to the interstate highway system. If the federal government built the roads and two companies transported all the goods on them, a logical question at that point would be how much of that should I own? You are riding on my rails. His conclusion was direct. If he were running a sovereign wealth fund and had the negotiating leverage of the US government, he would own 75% of these companies when he was done. The internet had zero marginal cost. That is why the founders captured almost all of the value. AI has real marginal cost and runs on public infrastructure. That changes who has a claim on what gets built. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

79,378 次观看 • 3 个月前

Jensen Huang just explained why every company cutting engineers over AI is asking the entirely wrong question. Huang: “People say, I don’t need software engineers because apparently coding is going to be automated.” That was the narrative. Here is what Huang actually did. Huang: “I’ve given AIs to every one of my software engineers and hardware engineers and engineers period. 100% of NVIDIA has AI assistants, AI coders, and they’re busier than ever.” Not fewer engineers. Not smaller teams. Busier than ever. That is the line most companies are getting completely wrong right now. They hear “AI can write code” and immediately start cutting headcount. Huang did the opposite. He armed everyone. Huang: “And so the question is, what is the task versus what is the job? No different than a financial analyst; the task is mess around with spreadsheets, but the job is to make financial advice. The job is to help a customer.” Writing code was always the task. It was never the job. The job is architecture. Knowing what to build. Why it matters. How it fits into a system that actually creates value. Code is the execution layer between the idea and the outcome. Nothing more. When you automate that layer, you don’t eliminate the engineer. You eliminate the bottleneck between what they can envision and what they can ship. The companies using AI to cut headcount are optimizing for cost. The companies using AI to multiply output are optimizing for territory. Nvidia chose territory. Every engineer at the most valuable semiconductor company on Earth now operates with an AI assistant. Not a pilot program. Not an experiment. Company-wide. Every function. Every team. And the result is not less work. It is more work. Faster. At a scale that was physically impossible twelve months ago. The companies that understand the difference between eliminating engineers and unleashing them will build what comes next. The ones that don’t will watch their best talent walk out the door to the ones that did.

Dustin

82,823 次观看 • 5 个月前

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,586 次观看 • 2 个月前