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Duke Professor Campbell Harvey explains why a 51% Bitcoin attack has become profitable and feasible today "Why would you spend billions investing in mining equipment, take over the network, but then the price of Bitcoin collapses to zero, so you spend all this money to get nothing? The only...

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"I used to be a bitcoiner. The transition to a new store of value only happens once every 3,000 years. That's the main prize -- just focus on that. But [security] is the criteria that ultimately convinced me to flip from Bitcoin to ETH." "I have a higher degree of certainty that Ethereum will be around longer [than Bitcoin]. The reason for that is because Bitcoin relies on proof-of-work, which is less efficient than proof-of-stake and doesn't scale with the value of the network. And as the block subsidy of Bitcoin halves every four years, it is increasingly becoming more and more reliant on transaction fees to fund the security budget paid to miners." "If you look at [Bitcoin's] security budget right now, about 0.6% of revenue to miners is transaction fees... The problem with that is if Bitcoin becomes 'digital gold', flips gold, and becomes a $30 trillion asset, but it only costs $10-20 billion to attack it, that's too asymmetric." "You want the security budget to scale with the market cap, similar to how countries spend a % of their GDP on defense. The more valuable something is, the more you need to spend to protect it." "Ethereum, with the Merge, migrated to proof-of-stake, which is fundamentally more secure because it's less reliant on transaction fees and it scales with the value of the network. If 1/3rd of ETH is staked and then you need 1/3rd of those ETH to censor the network, you're looking at roughly 10% of the total market cap as the cost to attack the network." "So if Ethereum flips Bitcoin and gold and becomes a $30 trillion asset, it'll cost ~$3 trillion to attack the Ethereum network versus Bitcoin at like $10 billion." "The other aspect here is that as AI hyperscalers invest more and more in AI, proof-of-work becomes increasingly vulnerable because the cost to attack the Bitcoin network is starting to look close to the quarterly CapEx these hyperscalers are spending on their data centers." Full interview on Bankless with Vivek Raman discussing the new Etherealize "Productive Money" report below.

Michael McGuiness

120,328 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Ed Dowd: "What we're learning from the Epstein files is that it's an operating system...[and] let's not forget Epstein was involved in money laundering... [and now] Bitcoin has been tied to... Epstein, and he's been involved in taking over the network and funding it... If you wanted to set up your own dark-money blackmail operation and launder money, Bitcoin would be the perfect way to do it, I guess." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Jesse Day (Jesse Day) posted to the Commodity Culture YouTube channel on February 28, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "What we're learning from the Epstein files is that it's an operating system. So we have the public-facing institutions, but we find out there's a layer of people above them that know how to manipulate that whole thing to their benefit through Kompromat and blackmail, and money laundering. "Let's not forget Epstein was involved in money laundering. That's how a lot of this stuff was. It's all dark money. And the other thing that surprised me, that I didn't. This angle I didn't think of. And again, we'll find out more, but Bitcoin has been tied to Jeffrey Epstein, and he's been involved in taking over the network and funding it. I don't know what to think of that and intuitively makes sense. "If you wanted to set up your own dark money blackmail operation and launder money, Bitcoin would be the perfect way to do it. I guess. So, you know, there's a lot that's being revealed, and I don't, you know, I don't know what that means for Bitcoin long term, but, it certainly kind of disrupts the narrative that bitcoin is freedom. "I mean, that was kind of one of the narratives that we were hearing. And I've never been a bitcoin, bear or bull. I've always said it's a. It's a proxy for NASDAQ and liquidity trade, you know. You know, buyer beware. It's not a store of wealth. It's very volatile. So that's what it's always been to me is a volatile, you know, 95% correlated asset to the NASDAQ."

Sense Receptor

21,167 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."

Sense Receptor

136,648 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The $250,000 ETH Productive Money Price Target Explained "You just have to look at the monetary premium that currently exists in gold and Bitcoin. If ETH is better money than gold and Bitcoin, it should capture the monetary premium of those two assets. Today gold has a market cap of ~$30 trillion and Bitcoin has a market cap of ~$1.5 trillion. If you divide that by 121 million ETH, you get a price somewhere between $250,000 and $300,000." Michael McGuiness continues: "I view Bitcoin and gold as the rough TAMs for scarce assets without counterparty risk. That's what gold is and that's what Bitcoin is... and I actually think that could end up being low because it doesn't include other TAMs like the broader money supply -- M2 is ~$22 trillion. There's a monetary premium in asset classes like luxury real estate -- you're not buying an apartment in NYC for the cap rate; it's more of a store of value. If the world converged on ETH as its store of value, it might win that monetary premium as well." Vivek Raman adds: "It sounds audacious but Ethereum is audacious. It's a new technology and people need to start thinking in exponentials... Institutional investors are starting to realize too that it's not just a discounted cash flow model -- Ethereum is not a software company. It's going for money. The repricing from an asset that's not well-understood yet to a productive money that's the global reserve asset is not something that's going to stop at a 10x... And that's what the opportunity is. There aren't many assets out there that have an intrinsic value floor with actual fundamental value plus a monetary premium -- and you have the ability to capture the growth of an entire network that's kind of like owning a piece of the Internet early on. That's what ETH is. It's one of the greatest assets I've ever seen." Mike adds: "I know the number can sound crazy on the surface, but one sanity check I like to do is: there's ~60 million millionaires and there's ~121 million ETH. If every millionaire globally tried to buy some ETH, they'd each be able to own ~2. Obviously there are people out there who own a lot more than 2 ETH, so it'd be less than that. So that's another way of thinking about these few-hundred-thousand-dollar price targets. I used to think about Bitcoin the same way. It's just a nice sanity check: If this is the global reserve asset and the world converges on it, and everyone tries to buy it, how much is left to go around?" Read the full report and watch the full The Edge Podcast interview with Vivek Raman and Michael McGuiness in the links below.

Etherealize

169,258 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

So, does it matter that Bitcoin seems to be moving away from its cypherpunk roots? Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Treasuries have taken BTC mainstream. So I asked Saifedean Ammous this very question. His answer might surprise you... 👀👇 "If you have very strong feelings about how people should and shouldn't use Bitcoin, you're in for a rough time." "To be honest, a lot of people project too much onto Bitcoin. Ultimately, it's just a bunch of software and anybody can use it in any way they want. Initially, it's a small subset of people that use it and then they start projecting their values onto it. And then over time, they expect it to continue to abide by that," Ammous said. "If it's a successful technology, it's going to be used by everybody. It's going to be used by small businesses, large businesses, governments, individuals. It's money. Everybody uses money. There are 8.5 billion people on Earth, they all use money and they're all going to continue to use money. And Bitcoin is just the best money." Ultimately, the protocol itself is immune to the financial instruments that TradFi has concocted. If people want to lend against their BTC or create complex financial products, that does not actually impact the underlying network. "The way that the protocol works is that it's completely blind to what you're doing with your coins on the Bitcoin blockchain there is no paper Bitcoin there's no such thing as paper Bitcoin there's only 21 million Bitcoin and every node makes sure of that every 10 minutes and then if somebody who has some of these Bitcoin on their private key decides to sell obligations or financial liabilities referring to that Bitcoin under any condition, that's their choice. It's outside of Bitcoin and it's outside of the realm of other Bitcoin users being able to say this is right or wrong and this should happen or shouldn't happen. People are going to do whatever they want with the Bitcoin, including selling access to it or exposure to it in all kinds of different ways. And if you don't like it, you don't buy it, you can stack your own Bitcoin." You can find the full interview for Cointelegraph in the 🧵. If you enjoyed this content, please like 🧡, retweet 🔁 and follow me 👋!

Gareth Jenkinson

34,417 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

💥💥💥 “If we look at #Bitcoin and model it as digital gold, you know the market cap goes to between $10 and $20 trillion, but remember gold is defective property. Gold is dead money. You have a billion dollars of gold that sits in a vault for a decade. It's very hard to mortgage the gold. It's also very hard to rent the gold. You can't loan the gold. No one's going to create a business with your gold, so gold it doesn't generate much of a yield, so for that reason most people wouldn't store a billion dollars for a decade in Gold. They would buy a billion dollars of commercial real estate property and the reason why is because I can rent it and generate a yield on it that's in excess of the maintenance cost. So if you consider digital property, that's a $100 to $200 trillion addressable market, so I would think it goes from $10 trillion to $100 trillion as people start to think of it as is digital property. What does that mean in terms of price per coin? At $500,000 that's a $10 trillion asset, at $5 million that's a $100 trillion dollar asset. So you think it crosses a million, it can go even higher? Yeah. I think it keeps going up forever. I mean there's no reason we couldn't go to $10 million a coin because digital property isn't the highest form right. Gold was that low frequency money. Property is a mid frequency money but when I start to program it faster it starts to look like digital energy and then it doesn't just replace property, then you're starting to replace bonds. It's $100 trillion in bonds, there's $50 to $100 trillion in other currency derivatives and these are all conventional use cases right. I think that there's $350 trillion to $500 trillion worth of currency derivatives in the world and when I say that I mean things that are valued based upon Fiat cash flows. Any commercial real estate, any bond, any sovereign debt, any currency itself, any derivatives to those things, they're all derivatives and they're all defective and they're all defective because of this persistent 7% to 14% lapse in which we call inflation.”- Michael Saylor

Bitcoin News Alerts OG 📢🔥

177,359 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten