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.Dwarkesh Patel says AGI won’t reshape the world by getting smarter. It will when it masters the tasks everyday people do. "A chatbot cannot edit videos for me." PhD-level intelligence doesn’t drive the economy. The real leverage comes from automating the mundane. Once AI can do that and scale... show more

a16z

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56,914 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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.Balaji says AI verification is much harder in the digital world than it is for the physical world: "AI for the physical world is very verifiable because the thing is, the digital world is fundamentally decentralized in a way the physical world isn't." "There's only one physical world. You can say: did the AI move this box from this pallet to that pallet? That is something where you can probably get it to 100% over time." "By contrast, in the digital world, there are all these people who live in their own constructed environments." "How do you know when you're done with your to-do list? That's harder. Those things are fuzzier."

.Balaji says AI verification is much harder in the digital world than it is for the physical world: "AI for the physical world is very verifiable because the thing is, the digital world is fundamentally decentralized in a way the physical world isn't." "There's only one physical world. You can say: did the AI move this box from this pallet to that pallet? That is something where you can probably get it to 100% over time." "By contrast, in the digital world, there are all these people who live in their own constructed environments." "How do you know when you're done with your to-do list? That's harder. Those things are fuzzier."

a16z

132,718 views • 5 months ago

Rentahuman (rentahuman) allows AI agents to communicate with and pay humans to do tasks in the real world. Their mission is to use AI to create new jobs and coordinate workers at global scale. The future will have more intelligence, more jobs, and more opportunities for people outside of the digital world. Congrats on the launch, Alex!

Rentahuman (rentahuman) allows AI agents to communicate with and pay humans to do tasks in the real world. Their mission is to use AI to create new jobs and coordinate workers at global scale. The future will have more intelligence, more jobs, and more opportunities for people outside of the digital world. Congrats on the launch, Alex!

Y Combinator

213,544 views • 4 months ago

ELON: AGI IS COMING FAST, AND IT WON’T STOP AT HUMAN LEVELS Elon says the timeline isn’t speculative anymore. What once sounded distant now looks imminent. He’s been consistent on this point for years, and his confidence hasn’t softened. The bigger shift, he argues, comes right after AGI, when intelligence stops being additive and starts compounding. “I think we’ll hit AGI next year, in ’26… Yeah, I’ve said that for a while… I’m confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.” Source: Moonshots Peter H. Diamandis, MD

ELON: AGI IS COMING FAST, AND IT WON’T STOP AT HUMAN LEVELS Elon says the timeline isn’t speculative anymore. What once sounded distant now looks imminent. He’s been consistent on this point for years, and his confidence hasn’t softened. The bigger shift, he argues, comes right after AGI, when intelligence stops being additive and starts compounding. “I think we’ll hit AGI next year, in ’26… Yeah, I’ve said that for a while… I’m confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.” Source: Moonshots Peter H. Diamandis, MD

Mario Nawfal

72,477 views • 8 months ago

Satya Nadella was asked what Microsoft does when its AI revenue 10x's from $13B to $130B. He refused to answer in revenue - and named the only AGI benchmark he says counts "The first thing we have to observe is GDP growth. There's only one governor in all of this" "This is where a little bit of, we get ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype" "The developed world is what, 2% growth? And if you adjust for inflation, it's zero. We have a real growth challenge" "When we say this is like the Industrial Revolution - that type of growth means to me 10%, 7%, developed world inflation adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker" "The big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity" "Us self-claiming some AGI milestone - that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is the world growing at 10%" The CEO with one of the largest AI infrastructure bets on earth just told you to ignore every model benchmark and watch a single number: world GDP. By that test, nothing has happened yet. Developed-world growth is flat, and no lab's press release moves it. Real AGI shows up as the economy compounding at Industrial Revolution rates - or it isn't real.

Satya Nadella was asked what Microsoft does when its AI revenue 10x's from $13B to $130B. He refused to answer in revenue - and named the only AGI benchmark he says counts "The first thing we have to observe is GDP growth. There's only one governor in all of this" "This is where a little bit of, we get ahead of ourselves with all this AGI hype" "The developed world is what, 2% growth? And if you adjust for inflation, it's zero. We have a real growth challenge" "When we say this is like the Industrial Revolution - that type of growth means to me 10%, 7%, developed world inflation adjusted, growing at 5%. That's the real marker" "The big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity" "Us self-claiming some AGI milestone - that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is the world growing at 10%" The CEO with one of the largest AI infrastructure bets on earth just told you to ignore every model benchmark and watch a single number: world GDP. By that test, nothing has happened yet. Developed-world growth is flat, and no lab's press release moves it. Real AGI shows up as the economy compounding at Industrial Revolution rates - or it isn't real.

Karl Mehta

82,403 views • 2 months ago

"Visual-spatial intelligence is as fundamental as language." Fei-Fei Li says world models are the key to letting AI see the world, reason about it, interact with it, navigate it, and even 'build civilization upon it.' "It's very natural for me that World Labs' north star is to unlock spatial intelligence. The moment to me is right to do it." "We've got these ingredients—we've got compute, we've got a much deeper understanding of data, way deeper than [the ImageNet days]... and we've got some advancement of algorithms."

"Visual-spatial intelligence is as fundamental as language." Fei-Fei Li says world models are the key to letting AI see the world, reason about it, interact with it, navigate it, and even 'build civilization upon it.' "It's very natural for me that World Labs' north star is to unlock spatial intelligence. The moment to me is right to do it." "We've got these ingredients—we've got compute, we've got a much deeper understanding of data, way deeper than [the ImageNet days]... and we've got some advancement of algorithms."

a16z

32,387 views • 7 months ago

Ray Kurzweil dropped a mind-bending clarification on the timeline we’ve all been watching. He still stands by his famous 2029 prediction for human-level AI. But the Singularity — the point where we become a thousand times smarter — comes in 2045. The key difference? We won’t just have AI beside us. We’re going to merge with it. Kurzweil says the boundary will disappear: you won’t know whether an idea popped into your head from your biological brain or your computational intelligence. It will feel exactly the same. Today we can tell when something comes from an LLM. In the future, we won’t. By 2045, he believes this merger will multiply our intelligence by a factor of 1,000. It’s not two separate things competing. It’s one seamless intelligence — and we become it. What do you think — does the idea of fully merging with AI excite you, scare you, or both?

Ray Kurzweil dropped a mind-bending clarification on the timeline we’ve all been watching. He still stands by his famous 2029 prediction for human-level AI. But the Singularity — the point where we become a thousand times smarter — comes in 2045. The key difference? We won’t just have AI beside us. We’re going to merge with it. Kurzweil says the boundary will disappear: you won’t know whether an idea popped into your head from your biological brain or your computational intelligence. It will feel exactly the same. Today we can tell when something comes from an LLM. In the future, we won’t. By 2045, he believes this merger will multiply our intelligence by a factor of 1,000. It’s not two separate things competing. It’s one seamless intelligence — and we become it. What do you think — does the idea of fully merging with AI excite you, scare you, or both?

Camus

63,497 views • 5 months ago

Introducing GEN-1.5, a one-shot learner. It can learn new tasks in a few seconds. Show it what to do, and it generalizes. This capability emerged from pretraining on physical data at scale, as a step towards our mission of building general intelligence for the physical world.

Introducing GEN-1.5, a one-shot learner. It can learn new tasks in a few seconds. Show it what to do, and it generalizes. This capability emerged from pretraining on physical data at scale, as a step towards our mission of building general intelligence for the physical world.

Generalist

3,415,873 views • 1 month ago

Demis Hassabis says AGI is a scientific goal worth pursuing -- a testable frontier of general intelligence. Kate Crawford pushes back: the industry is already optimized for AGI. What it lacks is alignment with goals that serve people and the planet. "When do we build AI that's actually good for everyone? These are the real benchmarks."

Demis Hassabis says AGI is a scientific goal worth pursuing -- a testable frontier of general intelligence. Kate Crawford pushes back: the industry is already optimized for AGI. What it lacks is alignment with goals that serve people and the planet. "When do we build AI that's actually good for everyone? These are the real benchmarks."

vitrupo

29,243 views • 1 year ago

Aravind Srinivas says a sign of higher intelligence in AI will be when it can explain a truth about the world that we don't know and create new knowledge

Aravind Srinivas says a sign of higher intelligence in AI will be when it can explain a truth about the world that we don't know and create new knowledge

Tsarathustra

88,094 views • 2 years ago

📁 Fei-Fei Li, former Google Chief Scientist, says the industry is dangerously fixated on language models. Most of the real economy is physical, perceptual and spatial. Once AI fully understands the visual world, it stops being a chatbot and starts becoming infrastructure.

📁 Fei-Fei Li, former Google Chief Scientist, says the industry is dangerously fixated on language models. Most of the real economy is physical, perceptual and spatial. Once AI fully understands the visual world, it stops being a chatbot and starts becoming infrastructure.

Jon Hernandez

216,384 views • 4 months ago

Marc Andreessen: "Overall, the world, especially the western world, it's just stagnant." "Every once in a while you have somebody that comes along... I actually have an idea how to make things like fundamentally better." "Nobody licensed us to do any of this." "Anybody can start, build a product, start a company." "It's shocking to me how few people actually give it a shot." "The fate of the world over the next 1500 years is riding on the people who actually want to give it a shot." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with David Senra

Marc Andreessen: "Overall, the world, especially the western world, it's just stagnant." "Every once in a while you have somebody that comes along... I actually have an idea how to make things like fundamentally better." "Nobody licensed us to do any of this." "Anybody can start, build a product, start a company." "It's shocking to me how few people actually give it a shot." "The fate of the world over the next 1500 years is riding on the people who actually want to give it a shot." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with David Senra

a16z

77,308 views • 6 months ago

Martin Casado on the AI product evolution before Grok Bot really got it right: "We've, as an industry, gone through multiple realizations for how AI enters our lives. Very early on, you add AI to a product and it's like a search bar. And then you do chat with it, and it chats back." "Then OpenClaw showed up... it'll be an extension of you, and it'll share your keys, and it'll know your passwords, and it'll just kind of do stuff that you would do." "What Grok Bot got really right is, how about it's just actually an employee?... It has its own computer, and it has its own browser, and because these are the smartest models in the world, it can do whatever an employee can do." "Now, actually, if I want something done, my first thing I think is like, 'Well, can Grok Bot do it for me?' And often the answer is yes, even if it's something you wouldn't expect." "For example, I'll have it read through my email and do triage. I don't tell it how to do that, but it will know to check with me before actually doing the triage. These things are sophisticated enough that you can give it relatively high-level tasks, and it'll do sophisticated things as a result." martin_casado

Martin Casado on the AI product evolution before Grok Bot really got it right: "We've, as an industry, gone through multiple realizations for how AI enters our lives. Very early on, you add AI to a product and it's like a search bar. And then you do chat with it, and it chats back." "Then OpenClaw showed up... it'll be an extension of you, and it'll share your keys, and it'll know your passwords, and it'll just kind of do stuff that you would do." "What Grok Bot got really right is, how about it's just actually an employee?... It has its own computer, and it has its own browser, and because these are the smartest models in the world, it can do whatever an employee can do." "Now, actually, if I want something done, my first thing I think is like, 'Well, can Grok Bot do it for me?' And often the answer is yes, even if it's something you wouldn't expect." "For example, I'll have it read through my email and do triage. I don't tell it how to do that, but it will know to check with me before actually doing the triage. These things are sophisticated enough that you can give it relatively high-level tasks, and it'll do sophisticated things as a result." martin_casado

a16z

36,009 views • 29 days ago

Fei-Fei Li on what simulation can do for robotics that real-world data can't: "You play out events that haven't happened, or cannot happen... And while you play it out, you learn how to act in it." "That's really important in robotics, because we cannot possibly have enough real-world data for that." "Here is a real life example: the industry of self-driving cars. Waymo has officially said they use billions of hours of simulation." "Cars are the simplest kind of robots. So clearly simulation plays a huge role in robotic learning." Fei-Fei Li Yunzhu Li World Labs martin_casado

Fei-Fei Li on what simulation can do for robotics that real-world data can't: "You play out events that haven't happened, or cannot happen... And while you play it out, you learn how to act in it." "That's really important in robotics, because we cannot possibly have enough real-world data for that." "Here is a real life example: the industry of self-driving cars. Waymo has officially said they use billions of hours of simulation." "Cars are the simplest kind of robots. So clearly simulation plays a huge role in robotic learning." Fei-Fei Li Yunzhu Li World Labs martin_casado

a16z

35,794 views • 1 month ago

Elon Musk says Tesla is building an “Optimus Academy” so the robots can perform different tasks in the real world. “We’re going to need to build a lot of robots, and put them into a Optimus Academy, so they can do self-play in reality. We’re actually building that out, we’re going to have at least 10-30K Optimus robots that are testing different tasks.”

Elon Musk says Tesla is building an “Optimus Academy” so the robots can perform different tasks in the real world. “We’re going to need to build a lot of robots, and put them into a Optimus Academy, so they can do self-play in reality. We’re actually building that out, we’re going to have at least 10-30K Optimus robots that are testing different tasks.”

Nic Cruz Patane

20,052 views • 7 months ago

Ilya Sutskever explains the 1% human training loop, and why fully autonomous AI is the wrong target "The thing you really want is for the human teachers that tell, that teach the AI, for them to collaborate with an AI." "You might want to think of it as being in a world where the human teachers do 1% of the world and the work and the AI do 99% of the work." "You don't want it to be 100% AI" "But you do want it to be a human-machine collaboration which teaches the next machine." Most teams are trying to remove the human from the loop. Ilya's design keeps a tiny human control surface and uses it to teach the next generation. The leverage is not zero humans. It is 1% human judgment steering 99% machine work. - Ilya Sutskever (Ilya Sutskever), AI researcher, on Dwarkesh Patel

Ilya Sutskever explains the 1% human training loop, and why fully autonomous AI is the wrong target "The thing you really want is for the human teachers that tell, that teach the AI, for them to collaborate with an AI." "You might want to think of it as being in a world where the human teachers do 1% of the world and the work and the AI do 99% of the work." "You don't want it to be 100% AI" "But you do want it to be a human-machine collaboration which teaches the next machine." Most teams are trying to remove the human from the loop. Ilya's design keeps a tiny human control surface and uses it to teach the next generation. The leverage is not zero humans. It is 1% human judgment steering 99% machine work. - Ilya Sutskever (Ilya Sutskever), AI researcher, on Dwarkesh Patel

Karl Mehta

30,651 views • 2 months ago

When will we see Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI — when AI can do nearly anything the human brain can do (and perhaps do it better) — become a reality? We asked 33 AI-focused YC founders, and here’s what they had to say. ▶️

When will we see Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI — when AI can do nearly anything the human brain can do (and perhaps do it better) — become a reality? We asked 33 AI-focused YC founders, and here’s what they had to say. ▶️

Y Combinator

32,432 views • 2 years ago

Yann LeCun says language isn’t intelligence. Predicting text doesn’t mean understanding reality. The real world is messy, physical, and causal and today’s LLMs barely touch that. The next leap is Physical AI: world models, cause and effect, real planning. Do you think LLMs can evolve into this, or do we need a completely new architecture?

Yann LeCun says language isn’t intelligence. Predicting text doesn’t mean understanding reality. The real world is messy, physical, and causal and today’s LLMs barely touch that. The next leap is Physical AI: world models, cause and effect, real planning. Do you think LLMs can evolve into this, or do we need a completely new architecture?

VraserX e/acc

76,220 views • 7 months ago