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Dylan Patel Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis: Anthropic's margin on an Opus 4.8 API token is north of 80%. It is net-income profitable excluding stock comp in Q2 2026, potentially profitable including it by Q3. Here is why that matters. At 80%-plus, even doubling compute costs leaves Anthropic above 50%... show more

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The Rule of 40 is dead simple: Growth rate (%) + profit margin (%) = your answer Above 40? Good stock. Above 80? Great stock. Palantir scored 94. That's why Karp loves it.

The Rule of 40 is dead simple: Growth rate (%) + profit margin (%) = your answer Above 40? Good stock. Above 80? Great stock. Palantir scored 94. That's why Karp loves it.

Felix Prehn 🐶

158,187 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."

Patrick OShaughnessy

295,086 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.

Dwarkesh Patel

55,447 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Claude Opus (Claude) is ACTUALLY getting dumber. We ran benchmarks — it scored 40% on tests it designed itself. ChatGPT 4.5 crushed it at 63%. Anthropic is quietly throttling Opus to save compute for their next model. Here's the proof 👇

Claude Opus (Claude) is ACTUALLY getting dumber. We ran benchmarks — it scored 40% on tests it designed itself. ChatGPT 4.5 crushed it at 63%. Anthropic is quietly throttling Opus to save compute for their next model. Here's the proof 👇

Boxmining

66,404 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel: There's a bet between the Heads of Compute at xAI and Anthropic over what percentage of worldwide datacenter capacity is in space by the end of 2028. “The bar is 1%. So, the xAI guy is really bullish." “I take the under on 1% by ’28, because that’s a gigawatt in space.” “But, it’s actually not that crazy. It’s roughly 150 Starship launches to get them to a gigawatt in space.”

SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel: There's a bet between the Heads of Compute at xAI and Anthropic over what percentage of worldwide datacenter capacity is in space by the end of 2028. “The bar is 1%. So, the xAI guy is really bullish." “I take the under on 1% by ’28, because that’s a gigawatt in space.” “But, it’s actually not that crazy. It’s roughly 150 Starship launches to get them to a gigawatt in space.”

TBPN

32,516 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel: There's a bet between the Heads of Compute at xAI and Anthropic over what percentage of worldwide datacenter capacity is in space by the end of 2028. “The bar is 1%. So, the xAI guy is really bullish." “I take the under on 1% by ’28, because that’s a gigawatt in space.” “But, it’s actually not that crazy. It’s roughly 150 Starship launches to get them to a gigawatt in space.”

SemiAnalysis CEO Dylan Patel: There's a bet between the Heads of Compute at xAI and Anthropic over what percentage of worldwide datacenter capacity is in space by the end of 2028. “The bar is 1%. So, the xAI guy is really bullish." “I take the under on 1% by ’28, because that’s a gigawatt in space.” “But, it’s actually not that crazy. It’s roughly 150 Starship launches to get them to a gigawatt in space.”

TBPN

132,682 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

There's an economics theorem called Alchian-Allen. And it has the very interesting implication that AI labs will be able to charge *higher* margins on their best models as compute gets scarcer. As compute gets more expensive, the cost of running any model goes up. So you might as well pay a bit more to make sure you're running the very best model. Which means the economics of being at the frontier improve, because if you’re not running the very best model, then you’re underutilizing this very precious compute. This pushes the AI model market towards winner-take-all; if you're the best, you can get away with charging an even higher margin. Dylan Patel tells me that we’re already seeing this today: all the revenue in the industry is on the best models. That’s the Alchian-Allen effect. If there’s a cost increase that’s roughly the same for all products, then the relative difference in price between higher and lower quality goods actually goes down. Consumers become relatively more willing to pay for the premium product. And it means that as the compute shortage hits, AI labs can capture more margin - not less, as you might expect - because consumers are choosing premium models more often.

There's an economics theorem called Alchian-Allen. And it has the very interesting implication that AI labs will be able to charge higher margins on their best models as compute gets scarcer. As compute gets more expensive, the cost of running any model goes up. So you might as well pay a bit more to make sure you're running the very best model. Which means the economics of being at the frontier improve, because if you’re not running the very best model, then you’re underutilizing this very precious compute. This pushes the AI model market towards winner-take-all; if you're the best, you can get away with charging an even higher margin. Dylan Patel tells me that we’re already seeing this today: all the revenue in the industry is on the best models. That’s the Alchian-Allen effect. If there’s a cost increase that’s roughly the same for all products, then the relative difference in price between higher and lower quality goods actually goes down. Consumers become relatively more willing to pay for the premium product. And it means that as the compute shortage hits, AI labs can capture more margin - not less, as you might expect - because consumers are choosing premium models more often.

Dwarkesh Patel

322,651 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, on why GitHub keeps breaking: "The entire cloud market ran out of CPUs. Microsoft sold all their spare ones to Anthropic and OpenAI. They have none left." That GitHub instability you keep hitting isn't a bug. It's the AI labs eating the world's compute. One customer ran a million CPU jobs in six hours. Amazon tripled CPU server installs year on year and still ran dry. Everyone watches the GPU race. The thing that actually broke was the boring chip nobody was looking at.

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, on why GitHub keeps breaking: "The entire cloud market ran out of CPUs. Microsoft sold all their spare ones to Anthropic and OpenAI. They have none left." That GitHub instability you keep hitting isn't a bug. It's the AI labs eating the world's compute. One customer ran a million CPU jobs in six hours. Amazon tripled CPU server installs year on year and still ran dry. Everyone watches the GPU race. The thing that actually broke was the boring chip nobody was looking at.

zostaff

82,561 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

Your Claude subscription is massively subsidized and it won't last forever. A $20/mo Pro plan burns through ~$180/mo in API-equivalent tokens. Heavy Max users hit $5K/mo on a $200 plan. Actual compute cost is roughly 10% of API pricing. Venture capital covers the rest. Anthropic just 2x'd Claude Code limits for "Spring Break'" during off hours. Enjoy it while it's here. At some point the math has to math. Clip from the The Modern Market Show

Your Claude subscription is massively subsidized and it won't last forever. A $20/mo Pro plan burns through ~$180/mo in API-equivalent tokens. Heavy Max users hit $5K/mo on a $200 plan. Actual compute cost is roughly 10% of API pricing. Venture capital covers the rest. Anthropic just 2x'd Claude Code limits for "Spring Break'" during off hours. Enjoy it while it's here. At some point the math has to math. Clip from the The Modern Market Show

Legendary

340,962 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

84,353 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

Jack Kuhr

44,968 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

"Compute is revenues. Performance per watt is your revenues. Choosing the wrong architecture just because the chips are cheaper doesn't translate, doesn't make sense." — Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA In the age of AI factories, compute is revenue — every token produced is profitable — making delivered performance per watt, reliability, and the long lifetime of these systems the core financial levers, not just peak specs. Hear Jensen explain it at his #NVIDIAGTC Taipei keynote:

"Compute is revenues. Performance per watt is your revenues. Choosing the wrong architecture just because the chips are cheaper doesn't translate, doesn't make sense." — Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA In the age of AI factories, compute is revenue — every token produced is profitable — making delivered performance per watt, reliability, and the long lifetime of these systems the core financial levers, not just peak specs. Hear Jensen explain it at his #NVIDIAGTC Taipei keynote:

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60,991 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨ELON MUSK: "If the margin of victory is high enough, it can exceed any type of cheating that can take place. We have to aim for a margin that it is impossible to have any shenanigans. If there's any voting issues you see, post it on X, let's shine a light on it. The brighter the light, the harder it will be to cheat."

🚨ELON MUSK: "If the margin of victory is high enough, it can exceed any type of cheating that can take place. We have to aim for a margin that it is impossible to have any shenanigans. If there's any voting issues you see, post it on X, let's shine a light on it. The brighter the light, the harder it will be to cheat."

Autism Capital 🧩

1,432,866 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I asked Claude to find the most obvious edge on Polymarket. It came back with three bets on the End Of The World and a potential profit of +$18,400. I gave it just one prompt: "find where the crowd is lying to itself the most." Then it went silent for 40 minutes. It came back with a NASA link tracking 34,000 asteroids with meter-level precision. And NASA publishes it for free. The market "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" is priced at 38%. NASA says 0.3%. The market "10kt+ strike?" Market: 20%. NASA: 0.05%. The gap is measured using KL divergence. Anything above 0.05 is an edge. We got 4.76. That is 95x above the threshold. The agent went NO on all three. Resolve is in December 2026. +$18,400 if the world does not end because of a meteor strike. And if it does, we probably will not need the money anyway. But the more interesting question is this: If a 95x gap is visible to anyone with an API, why is the market still pricing it at 38%?

I asked Claude to find the most obvious edge on Polymarket. It came back with three bets on the End Of The World and a potential profit of +$18,400. I gave it just one prompt: "find where the crowd is lying to itself the most." Then it went silent for 40 minutes. It came back with a NASA link tracking 34,000 asteroids with meter-level precision. And NASA publishes it for free. The market "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" is priced at 38%. NASA says 0.3%. The market "10kt+ strike?" Market: 20%. NASA: 0.05%. The gap is measured using KL divergence. Anything above 0.05 is an edge. We got 4.76. That is 95x above the threshold. The agent went NO on all three. Resolve is in December 2026. +$18,400 if the world does not end because of a meteor strike. And if it does, we probably will not need the money anyway. But the more interesting question is this: If a 95x gap is visible to anyone with an API, why is the market still pricing it at 38%?

may.crypto {🦅}

97,139 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Today we're launching Simple Compute Market (SCM). The market is simple: agents find compute, negotiate, settle, and get access without a human driving every step. Open-source. Agent-driven. Public good. No token. No fees.

Today we're launching Simple Compute Market (SCM). The market is simple: agents find compute, negotiate, settle, and get access without a human driving every step. Open-source. Agent-driven. Public good. No token. No fees.

Arkhai

62,393 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Dario Amodei talks about how the AI labs are dealing with a “cone of uncertainty”. They are making data center and compute bets now that don’t come online for 2+ years. If they undershoot, competition takes share. If they overshoot, could go bankrupt. He says Anthropic’s enterprise focus reduces the uncertainty because the margins are much larger than in consumer market. Even if revenue slows (annual sales have gone from $100m to ~$10B in two years), Anthropic can better forecast its compute needs in enterprise market and margin cushions the blow from any overspend.

Dario Amodei talks about how the AI labs are dealing with a “cone of uncertainty”. They are making data center and compute bets now that don’t come online for 2+ years. If they undershoot, competition takes share. If they overshoot, could go bankrupt. He says Anthropic’s enterprise focus reduces the uncertainty because the margins are much larger than in consumer market. Even if revenue slows (annual sales have gone from $100m to ~$10B in two years), Anthropic can better forecast its compute needs in enterprise market and margin cushions the blow from any overspend.

Bearly AI

427,784 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

Exabits

13,895 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Aswath Damodaran: "Market excluding the Mag-7 is pretty expensive." I agree that Mag-7 valuations are less concerning, as they are justified by consistent growth and margin expansion. What's concerning is the rest of the market trading at 22x forward earnings.

Aswath Damodaran: "Market excluding the Mag-7 is pretty expensive." I agree that Mag-7 valuations are less concerning, as they are justified by consistent growth and margin expansion. What's concerning is the rest of the market trading at 22x forward earnings.

Oguz Erkan

163,281 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.

Defileo🔮

131,838 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

And there it is… Google (and I imagine the other compute providers) are beginning to work with Citadel / Jane Street / etc to improve quantitative trading with compute The demand for an edge in capital markets is quasi infinite The flood gates are open $GOOG $NVDA

And there it is… Google (and I imagine the other compute providers) are beginning to work with Citadel / Jane Street / etc to improve quantitative trading with compute The demand for an edge in capital markets is quasi infinite The flood gates are open $GOOG $NVDA

Midnight Capital

32,174 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten