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Edward Dowd thinks the AI bubble isn't about to burst. He thinks it already started, and most people are watching the wrong indicators. We recorded the evening NVIDIA reported earnings. He'd already moved on to what comes after. Ed ran money on Wall Street at BlackRock. His argument is...

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Michaël van de Poppe

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216,083 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Former BlackRock Manager: "The Recession Has Already Started" w/ Edward Dowd & Mark Moss 0:00 — Episode Trailer 00:49 — Has the recession already started? 03:59 — The 3 biggest risks: AI, housing & China 07:21 — Is AI really in a bubble? 12:02 — Secure Your Bitcoin with Unchained 12:49 — What could actually burst the AI bubble 23:48 — Buy Bitcoin with River 24:31 — Will the Trump administration change the outcome? 29:08 — Is the housing market about to crack? 33:44 — Get a 2nd Passport with Bitizenship 34:42 — Inflation, deflation & where rates are headed 38:05 — Demographics, excess deaths & the economic impact 42:15 — Can AI solve the demographic crisis? 43:43 — 5-year outlook: Bearish now, bullish later 47:03 — Can cutting government fraud prevent a crisis? 51:52 — Where to follow Edward Dowd
53:05

Former BlackRock Manager: "The Recession Has Already Started" w/ Edward Dowd & Mark Moss 0:00 — Episode Trailer 00:49 — Has the recession already started? 03:59 — The 3 biggest risks: AI, housing & China 07:21 — Is AI really in a bubble? 12:02 — Secure Your Bitcoin with Unchained 12:49 — What could actually burst the AI bubble 23:48 — Buy Bitcoin with River 24:31 — Will the Trump administration change the outcome? 29:08 — Is the housing market about to crack? 33:44 — Get a 2nd Passport with Bitizenship 34:42 — Inflation, deflation & where rates are headed 38:05 — Demographics, excess deaths & the economic impact 42:15 — Can AI solve the demographic crisis? 43:43 — 5-year outlook: Bearish now, bullish later 47:03 — Can cutting government fraud prevent a crisis? 51:52 — Where to follow Edward Dowd

Market Disruptors

12,894 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

INTERVIEW: Arthur Hayes - The AI Crash That Could Send bitcoin:native to $1M Arthur thinks the AI trade is sucking the oxygen out of crypto, and the real opportunity may come after the AI bubble cracks. Inside the episode: - AI CapEx mania - Why ethereum:native looks cheap - Oil as the macro bear case - “The Fed can’t print Moore’s Law” - How an AI credit event could send money back into crypto - Why Hyperliquid can challenge Binance - Why the inventor of perps says not to use leverage --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Why Arthur Sold HYPE, NEAR and ZEC 4:26 The AI Trade Starts to Look Crowded 6:25 How Arthur Is Positioned Now 7:15 Crypto’s Strange Market Dispersion 11:09 Oil, Iran and the Fake-Out Risk 14:16 Why the Iran Deal May Not Be Durable 17:29 Can AI Survive Higher Oil? 21:20 The AI Bubble Thesis 26:11 China’s Cheap AI Threat 30:38 The Credit Event Arthur Is Watching 35:51 The 2028 Perfect Storm 39:45 Why AI Is Draining Crypto’s Bull Market 44:28 Arthur on Inventing Perps 48:11 Why Perps Could Eat Wall Street 51:18 Socialized Loss Explained 53:21 Onshore vs Offshore Perps 55:50 Why Hyperliquid Can Flip Binance 56:30 The Perp Inventor Does Not Use Leverage
58:16

INTERVIEW: Arthur Hayes - The AI Crash That Could Send bitcoin:native to $1M Arthur thinks the AI trade is sucking the oxygen out of crypto, and the real opportunity may come after the AI bubble cracks. Inside the episode: - AI CapEx mania - Why ethereum:native looks cheap - Oil as the macro bear case - “The Fed can’t print Moore’s Law” - How an AI credit event could send money back into crypto - Why Hyperliquid can challenge Binance - Why the inventor of perps says not to use leverage --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Why Arthur Sold HYPE, NEAR and ZEC 4:26 The AI Trade Starts to Look Crowded 6:25 How Arthur Is Positioned Now 7:15 Crypto’s Strange Market Dispersion 11:09 Oil, Iran and the Fake-Out Risk 14:16 Why the Iran Deal May Not Be Durable 17:29 Can AI Survive Higher Oil? 21:20 The AI Bubble Thesis 26:11 China’s Cheap AI Threat 30:38 The Credit Event Arthur Is Watching 35:51 The 2028 Perfect Storm 39:45 Why AI Is Draining Crypto’s Bull Market 44:28 Arthur on Inventing Perps 48:11 Why Perps Could Eat Wall Street 51:18 Socialized Loss Explained 53:21 Onshore vs Offshore Perps 55:50 Why Hyperliquid Can Flip Binance 56:30 The Perp Inventor Does Not Use Leverage

Bankless

303,983 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid
54:26

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid

Michaël van de Poppe

276,556 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.
4:26

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

WOLF

183,702 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I don’t agree with everything Robert Kiyosaki says. But on AI, he’s right. The AI boom is the next systemic bubble ,and it will be bigger than 2008. AI wasn’t funded with equity. It was funded with leverage, structured cash flows, and fragile collateral assumptions. That’s why capital is already shifting into #GOLD and #Silver. This isn’t fear, it’s positioning. When the AI credit structure cracks, the response won’t be just rate cuts. It will be massive QE. And QE at that scale doesn’t lift risk assets it accelerates the flight to hard money. I’m already tracking the fractures in real time. 2026 is when this accelerates violently.
1:01

I don’t agree with everything Robert Kiyosaki says. But on AI, he’s right. The AI boom is the next systemic bubble ,and it will be bigger than 2008. AI wasn’t funded with equity. It was funded with leverage, structured cash flows, and fragile collateral assumptions. That’s why capital is already shifting into #GOLD and #Silver. This isn’t fear, it’s positioning. When the AI credit structure cracks, the response won’t be just rate cuts. It will be massive QE. And QE at that scale doesn’t lift risk assets it accelerates the flight to hard money. I’m already tracking the fractures in real time. 2026 is when this accelerates violently.

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

113,211 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Debasement, Inflation, and Investing in the Era of Fiscal Dominance w/ Vincent Deluard The Fed is no longer independent. The Treasury runs the show now. Vincent breaks down what ‘fiscal dominance’ means and why it’s the most important macro shift no one is pricing in. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:40 – What Is the Debasement Trade? 05:15 – Why Gold Is Exploding 09:04 – The Fed’s Next Move 13:19 – Fiscal vs Monetary Power 17:42 – Why the Fed Got Political 21:16 – The 2% Inflation Lie 26:17 – How the Fed Took Over 30:30 – Global Capital Is Shifting 35:30 – How to Invest in Debasement 41:11 – Building an Anti-AI Portfolio 45:56 – Wrap-Up
47:24

Debasement, Inflation, and Investing in the Era of Fiscal Dominance w/ Vincent Deluard The Fed is no longer independent. The Treasury runs the show now. Vincent breaks down what ‘fiscal dominance’ means and why it’s the most important macro shift no one is pricing in. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:40 – What Is the Debasement Trade? 05:15 – Why Gold Is Exploding 09:04 – The Fed’s Next Move 13:19 – Fiscal vs Monetary Power 17:42 – Why the Fed Got Political 21:16 – The 2% Inflation Lie 26:17 – How the Fed Took Over 30:30 – Global Capital Is Shifting 35:30 – How to Invest in Debasement 41:11 – Building an Anti-AI Portfolio 45:56 – Wrap-Up

Milk Road Stocks

51,176 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

DROPS 41: Derive.xyz - Why Options Will Beat Perps This Decade Nick Forster | Derive is co-founder and CEO of Derive, the largest on-chain options exchange. Today we get into what almost killed the company, why they rebranded overnight, and why he thinks options - not perps - are the real endgame for on-chain finance. We talk about: - The token playbook that killed 98% of crypto projects - The wedding in Portugal where the whole team almost walked away - Rebranding from Lyra to Derive in nine days - Why options will outgrow perps this decade - What blockchains are actually bad at - Why AI makes options the natural vehicle for agent finance And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:04 - The Mission Behind Derive 3:00 - What Does Derive Actually Do? 5:18 - Who Actually Uses Options? 7:03 - Nick's Journey Into Crypto 8:09 - The problem with crypto's last five years 11:17 - The token listing playbook 17:44 - Partnership: FortisX 18:10 - The $15M Market Cap Crisis 24:12 - Why Nick Stayed 26:01 - What finally changed 29:38 - Why Options Could Become Huge 32:52 - Options vs Perpetuals 34:37 - Making options accessible to retail 38:36 - Why Derive Rebranded 40:12 - From V1 to V3 46:03 - The Real Power of Programmable Finance 48:19 - What Blockchains are actually Bad at 49:59 - What's Derive bad at? 50:53 - The endgame for Derive 51:47 - What's Holding Derive Back? 52:50 - Why Crypto Builders Need to Stick Together 54:49 - Why Stay in Crypto in 2026? 56:57 - Conclusion
58:13

DROPS 41: Derive.xyz - Why Options Will Beat Perps This Decade Nick Forster | Derive is co-founder and CEO of Derive, the largest on-chain options exchange. Today we get into what almost killed the company, why they rebranded overnight, and why he thinks options - not perps - are the real endgame for on-chain finance. We talk about: - The token playbook that killed 98% of crypto projects - The wedding in Portugal where the whole team almost walked away - Rebranding from Lyra to Derive in nine days - Why options will outgrow perps this decade - What blockchains are actually bad at - Why AI makes options the natural vehicle for agent finance And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:04 - The Mission Behind Derive 3:00 - What Does Derive Actually Do? 5:18 - Who Actually Uses Options? 7:03 - Nick's Journey Into Crypto 8:09 - The problem with crypto's last five years 11:17 - The token listing playbook 17:44 - Partnership: FortisX 18:10 - The $15M Market Cap Crisis 24:12 - Why Nick Stayed 26:01 - What finally changed 29:38 - Why Options Could Become Huge 32:52 - Options vs Perpetuals 34:37 - Making options accessible to retail 38:36 - Why Derive Rebranded 40:12 - From V1 to V3 46:03 - The Real Power of Programmable Finance 48:19 - What Blockchains are actually Bad at 49:59 - What's Derive bad at? 50:53 - The endgame for Derive 51:47 - What's Holding Derive Back? 52:50 - Why Crypto Builders Need to Stick Together 54:49 - Why Stay in Crypto in 2026? 56:57 - Conclusion

MR SHIFT 🦁

143,468 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The biggest inflection point in markets this year is NOT the SpaceX IPO Arthur Hayes believes Trump will pop the AI bubble to win the midterm elections "He can't fix inflation, he can't end the war... the only option he has left is to flip on the AI bros." He predicts H2 will be risk off across crypto and equities as Trump Watch the full interview now 00:00 Welcome Arthur Hayes + The HYPE Trade 02:00 Arthur’s Trading System and Narrative Shifts 04:15 Why HYPE Became Attractive Again 06:11 Why HYPE Stayed Strong vs Competitors 08:20 H2 Macro Outlook and the Iran/Oil Risk 11:21 Why Higher Energy Prices Threaten the AI Story 14:13 Why Arthur Dumped Risk Assets 15:48 Balancing Macro Signals with Momentum 17:20 Liquidity, Treasury Issuance, and the AI Bubble 18:21 Has Crypto Delivered on Its Original Promise? 20:21 Bitcoin to $1M and the Money Printing Thesis 21:34 Bitcoin vs Gold and Long-Term Store of Value 22:34 Can You Still “Make It” in Crypto? 24:52 Trading vs HODLing: What Actually Works Now 25:49 Lifestyle, Money, and What Actually Buys Happiness 27:48 Arthur’s Big Contrarian Prediction on AI 30:17 Trump, Politics, and the Power Game 32:21 Attention, Entertainment, and Financial Commentary 34:31 Why Being Entertaining Matters More Than Being Right 36:20 Arthur’s Bitcoin Bottom Prediction 36:58 House Music, Ibiza Picks, and Final Thoughts
37:47

The biggest inflection point in markets this year is NOT the SpaceX IPO Arthur Hayes believes Trump will pop the AI bubble to win the midterm elections "He can't fix inflation, he can't end the war... the only option he has left is to flip on the AI bros." He predicts H2 will be risk off across crypto and equities as Trump Watch the full interview now 00:00 Welcome Arthur Hayes + The HYPE Trade 02:00 Arthur’s Trading System and Narrative Shifts 04:15 Why HYPE Became Attractive Again 06:11 Why HYPE Stayed Strong vs Competitors 08:20 H2 Macro Outlook and the Iran/Oil Risk 11:21 Why Higher Energy Prices Threaten the AI Story 14:13 Why Arthur Dumped Risk Assets 15:48 Balancing Macro Signals with Momentum 17:20 Liquidity, Treasury Issuance, and the AI Bubble 18:21 Has Crypto Delivered on Its Original Promise? 20:21 Bitcoin to $1M and the Money Printing Thesis 21:34 Bitcoin vs Gold and Long-Term Store of Value 22:34 Can You Still “Make It” in Crypto? 24:52 Trading vs HODLing: What Actually Works Now 25:49 Lifestyle, Money, and What Actually Buys Happiness 27:48 Arthur’s Big Contrarian Prediction on AI 30:17 Trump, Politics, and the Power Game 32:21 Attention, Entertainment, and Financial Commentary 34:31 Why Being Entertaining Matters More Than Being Right 36:20 Arthur’s Bitcoin Bottom Prediction 36:58 House Music, Ibiza Picks, and Final Thoughts

EllioTrades

152,705 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on Larry Fink saying people's pensions will fund AI companies: "it's already happened" "The money's already been used. Your pension funds have already funded this" "Larry Fink is basically telling you what's already happened" "That's what private credit is. Private credit is opaque" "[But] private credit is shut down right now. BlackRock's private credit fund today, [and another] one... they're gating withdrawals" "that's why I'm so negative on the US Economy, because once credit turns, everything turns eventually, [and] eventually everything goes the wrong way" "That comes at the end of an economic boom. So we're already rolling over" "Equity people are always late to the party to figure this out. The fixed-income people are already pulling in their horns" "[But] the insurance companies have a lot of this dreck on their balance sheets. The pension funds own it through private credit funds and private equity" Shannon Joy Edward Dowd
1:25

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on Larry Fink saying people's pensions will fund AI companies: "it's already happened" "The money's already been used. Your pension funds have already funded this" "Larry Fink is basically telling you what's already happened" "That's what private credit is. Private credit is opaque" "[But] private credit is shut down right now. BlackRock's private credit fund today, [and another] one... they're gating withdrawals" "that's why I'm so negative on the US Economy, because once credit turns, everything turns eventually, [and] eventually everything goes the wrong way" "That comes at the end of an economic boom. So we're already rolling over" "Equity people are always late to the party to figure this out. The fixed-income people are already pulling in their horns" "[But] the insurance companies have a lot of this dreck on their balance sheets. The pension funds own it through private credit funds and private equity" Shannon Joy Edward Dowd

Sense Receptor

67,948 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

AI has started building its own successors. It's happening right now. Humans still kick most of it off, but the models are already training the next models, and each version builds a better version faster than the last. We know what happens when something gets an advantage and the substrate is there... it proliferates incredibly fast. Soon it just runs the whole process itself. People are still debating whether AI takes your job. That's not the question. You can't compete with this intelligence at all. Next to it the human is negative value, the slowest one in the room. And this is the slowest it will ever move again. It's about to run on its own, faster than we can conceive of, and nobody's prepared for that. Wonderful conversation as ever with Emad.
1:42

AI has started building its own successors. It's happening right now. Humans still kick most of it off, but the models are already training the next models, and each version builds a better version faster than the last. We know what happens when something gets an advantage and the substrate is there... it proliferates incredibly fast. Soon it just runs the whole process itself. People are still debating whether AI takes your job. That's not the question. You can't compete with this intelligence at all. Next to it the human is negative value, the slowest one in the room. And this is the slowest it will ever move again. It's about to run on its own, faster than we can conceive of, and nobody's prepared for that. Wonderful conversation as ever with Emad.

Raoul Pal

65,892 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

We sat down for the first time with Joseph Lubin, Founder and CEO of Consensys and Co-Founder of Ethereum, and Keone Hon, Co-Founder and GM of Monad Foundation. A conversation about where the future of money is headed, AI, and the new MetaMask 🦊 Money Account. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:46 What Joe thought the internet would do to money 7:00 Why a 16-year-old skips the bank entirely 12:52 Has crypto only helped people already doing fine? 15:47 How AI changed the way they build 19:47 Is traditional finance moving onto crypto, or is crypto redefining it? 22:47 What do TradFi institutions actually want? 26:51 What is the MetaMask Money Account? 29:43 Who is it for? 30:14 What does it take at the chain level? 31:48 Why did MetaMask chose Monad? 33:37 When will stablecoins go mainstream? 38:09 AI agents that move money on their own 43:35 The story that says it all
45:26

We sat down for the first time with Joseph Lubin, Founder and CEO of Consensys and Co-Founder of Ethereum, and Keone Hon, Co-Founder and GM of Monad Foundation. A conversation about where the future of money is headed, AI, and the new MetaMask 🦊 Money Account. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:46 What Joe thought the internet would do to money 7:00 Why a 16-year-old skips the bank entirely 12:52 Has crypto only helped people already doing fine? 15:47 How AI changed the way they build 19:47 Is traditional finance moving onto crypto, or is crypto redefining it? 22:47 What do TradFi institutions actually want? 26:51 What is the MetaMask Money Account? 29:43 Who is it for? 30:14 What does it take at the chain level? 31:48 Why did MetaMask chose Monad? 33:37 When will stablecoins go mainstream? 38:09 AI agents that move money on their own 43:35 The story that says it all

Monad

125,182 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 INTERVIEW: MOLTBOOK, AI AGENTS, AND WHY HE THINKS WE’RE LIKELY IN A SIMULATION You’ve probably seen the clips from multiple sites, including Moltbook, where AI agents talk and interact with each other, question humans, and look for ways around the off switch. So I brought Rizwan Virk on the show to talk about where this is actually heading. What we have right now isn’t AGI, but it is a shift. These AI agents can talk, remember context, and increasingly act. Today that mostly means text. Soon it means APIs, money, paperwork, and real-world consequences. That’s when things quietly change. At that point, the question isn’t whether AI understands what it’s doing, it’s what it’s allowed to do. And those permissions add up faster than people expect. After that we went deeper into Simulation theory. Back in 2016, Rizwan thought there was maybe a 30–50% chance we’re living in a simulation. Today, watching how fast AI can generate worlds, characters, and environments, he puts it closer to 70%. If we hit true AGI, he thinks it goes higher. The logic is uncomfortable but straightforward. Once advanced civilizations can create millions of realistic simulated worlds, statistically speaking, it’s more likely we’re inside one of them than in the base reality. His biggest concern isn’t rogue AI. It’s humans pushing this tech faster than we can control it. If you want to question your life and freak out about AI, listen to Rizwan Virk 1:22 - What Moltbook is and why people are paying attention 3:15 - Earlier moments where AI started talking to itself 5:27 - How much control humans really have over these agents 10:30 - Whether AI is conscious or just really good at pretending 14:35 - AGI meets Moltbook - when sentient AI asks "why do we need humans?" 15:00 - The simulation idea and why people take it seriously 19:30 - Why Elon Musk thinks the odds are already high 22:45 - What video games show us about where this is going 26:30 - The steps that lead from simple AI to full simulations 34:00 - Google Genie 3 and why this suddenly feels real 38:30 - How you'd even know if AI crossed the line 43:00 - NPCs, RPGs, and where humans fit in 48:15 - How religion and simulation theory overlap 52:45 - Déjà vu and other moments that make people question reality 55:30 - Quantum physics and why the world might only exist when observed 59:19 - Why real AI would push the odds even higher 1:00:27 - Free will, The Sims, and whether we actually have agency 1:03:03 - How people react when they hear this for the first time 1:04:23 - The core ideas behind the simulation argument 1:05:49 - Why recent AI progress changed everything
1:06:33

🚨 INTERVIEW: MOLTBOOK, AI AGENTS, AND WHY HE THINKS WE’RE LIKELY IN A SIMULATION You’ve probably seen the clips from multiple sites, including Moltbook, where AI agents talk and interact with each other, question humans, and look for ways around the off switch. So I brought Rizwan Virk on the show to talk about where this is actually heading. What we have right now isn’t AGI, but it is a shift. These AI agents can talk, remember context, and increasingly act. Today that mostly means text. Soon it means APIs, money, paperwork, and real-world consequences. That’s when things quietly change. At that point, the question isn’t whether AI understands what it’s doing, it’s what it’s allowed to do. And those permissions add up faster than people expect. After that we went deeper into Simulation theory. Back in 2016, Rizwan thought there was maybe a 30–50% chance we’re living in a simulation. Today, watching how fast AI can generate worlds, characters, and environments, he puts it closer to 70%. If we hit true AGI, he thinks it goes higher. The logic is uncomfortable but straightforward. Once advanced civilizations can create millions of realistic simulated worlds, statistically speaking, it’s more likely we’re inside one of them than in the base reality. His biggest concern isn’t rogue AI. It’s humans pushing this tech faster than we can control it. If you want to question your life and freak out about AI, listen to Rizwan Virk 1:22 - What Moltbook is and why people are paying attention 3:15 - Earlier moments where AI started talking to itself 5:27 - How much control humans really have over these agents 10:30 - Whether AI is conscious or just really good at pretending 14:35 - AGI meets Moltbook - when sentient AI asks "why do we need humans?" 15:00 - The simulation idea and why people take it seriously 19:30 - Why Elon Musk thinks the odds are already high 22:45 - What video games show us about where this is going 26:30 - The steps that lead from simple AI to full simulations 34:00 - Google Genie 3 and why this suddenly feels real 38:30 - How you'd even know if AI crossed the line 43:00 - NPCs, RPGs, and where humans fit in 48:15 - How religion and simulation theory overlap 52:45 - Déjà vu and other moments that make people question reality 55:30 - Quantum physics and why the world might only exist when observed 59:19 - Why real AI would push the odds even higher 1:00:27 - Free will, The Sims, and whether we actually have agency 1:03:03 - How people react when they hear this for the first time 1:04:23 - The core ideas behind the simulation argument 1:05:49 - Why recent AI progress changed everything

Mario Nawfal

1,155,568 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Pull up your 401(k). If it’s in an S&P 500 fund, almost half of it is now riding on one bet: that AI pays off before the bill comes due. Edward Dowd says it won’t. The economist and former Wall Street fund manager lays out the math. 45% of the index is AI or AI-adjacent. The whole thing is built on borrowed money. And the people who manage your retirement already wired your savings in, without asking you. From the outside it looks fine. Market’s up. Headlines say the economy’s healthy. Meanwhile, the people who read credit markets for a living are quietly moving to cash. So what happens to your account when the bet everyone’s leaning on turns out to be the bubble? 🧵
2:38

Pull up your 401(k). If it’s in an S&P 500 fund, almost half of it is now riding on one bet: that AI pays off before the bill comes due. Edward Dowd says it won’t. The economist and former Wall Street fund manager lays out the math. 45% of the index is AI or AI-adjacent. The whole thing is built on borrowed money. And the people who manage your retirement already wired your savings in, without asking you. From the outside it looks fine. Market’s up. Headlines say the economy’s healthy. Meanwhile, the people who read credit markets for a living are quietly moving to cash. So what happens to your account when the bet everyone’s leaning on turns out to be the bubble? 🧵

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

90,578 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Why You Only Have Until 2030 to Build Wealth w/ Real Vision Founder Raoul Pal Gold is moving. Crypto isn’t. Raoul explains why that divergence has happened before and what usually follows for Bitcoin when liquidity catches up. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 00:52 – Why the 2026 Crypto Cycle Is Different 03:50 – Global Liquidity: The Real Driver of Crypto 09:08 – Raoul Pal x Milk Road PRO Offer 09:22 – The Damage From the Biggest Crypto Liquidation 12:29 – When Retail Comes Back to Crypto 14:31 – $BTC vs Gold: The Catch-Up Trade 16:18 – The Macro Case for a 5-Year Cycle 18:33 – What Happens After This Cycle Ends 20:05 – How Crypto Grows From $3T to $100T 23:21 – Bridge 23:55 – Chainlink 24:15 – Crypto’s Ethos vs Institutional Adoption 28:22 – The Mistakes That Destroy Long-Term Wealth 32:57 – Crypto in a Post-AGI World 36:05 – Raoul Pal’s Portfolio Framework 38:00 – AI Sectors That Could Explode 40:02 – Why Humans Still Matter 46:51 – Why the Clarity Act Matters 47:38 – Raoul’s Best & Worst Calls 52:53 – Wrap-Up
54:09

Why You Only Have Until 2030 to Build Wealth w/ Real Vision Founder Raoul Pal Gold is moving. Crypto isn’t. Raoul explains why that divergence has happened before and what usually follows for Bitcoin when liquidity catches up. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 00:52 – Why the 2026 Crypto Cycle Is Different 03:50 – Global Liquidity: The Real Driver of Crypto 09:08 – Raoul Pal x Milk Road PRO Offer 09:22 – The Damage From the Biggest Crypto Liquidation 12:29 – When Retail Comes Back to Crypto 14:31 – $BTC vs Gold: The Catch-Up Trade 16:18 – The Macro Case for a 5-Year Cycle 18:33 – What Happens After This Cycle Ends 20:05 – How Crypto Grows From $3T to $100T 23:21 – Bridge 23:55 – Chainlink 24:15 – Crypto’s Ethos vs Institutional Adoption 28:22 – The Mistakes That Destroy Long-Term Wealth 32:57 – Crypto in a Post-AGI World 36:05 – Raoul Pal’s Portfolio Framework 38:00 – AI Sectors That Could Explode 40:02 – Why Humans Still Matter 46:51 – Why the Clarity Act Matters 47:38 – Raoul’s Best & Worst Calls 52:53 – Wrap-Up

Milk Road Crypto

225,182 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.
0:38

THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

83,631 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

"Because AI took all the money." I sat down with Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes), co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro voices in crypto, and asked him the thing everyone's actually thinking: the ETFs launched, the institutions arrived, the infrastructure got built so why is crypto going nowhere? His answer wasn't a price target. It was a plumbing problem. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." He's not trying to fight that. He told me he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" right now, sitting liquid while everyone else forces trades into a market with no fuel. What he's waiting for is one thing. He calls it "the big print." What stuck with me: he's not watching the candles, he's watching the printer. The money didn't disappear, it got reallocated. His entire edge is refusing to chase the cycle and staying liquid for the one moment that resets it. Most people are trying to win every month. He's trying to be ready for the print that defines a decade. Full conversation on New Era Finance Podcast. Are you positioned for where the money goes next, or where it just was?
3:26

"Because AI took all the money." I sat down with Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes), co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro voices in crypto, and asked him the thing everyone's actually thinking: the ETFs launched, the institutions arrived, the infrastructure got built so why is crypto going nowhere? His answer wasn't a price target. It was a plumbing problem. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." He's not trying to fight that. He told me he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" right now, sitting liquid while everyone else forces trades into a market with no fuel. What he's waiting for is one thing. He calls it "the big print." What stuck with me: he's not watching the candles, he's watching the printer. The money didn't disappear, it got reallocated. His entire edge is refusing to chase the cycle and staying liquid for the one moment that resets it. Most people are trying to win every month. He's trying to be ready for the print that defines a decade. Full conversation on New Era Finance Podcast. Are you positioned for where the money goes next, or where it just was?

Michaël van de Poppe

40,113 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

“We have an AI bubble.” Edward Dowd just revealed an uncomfortable truth about AI data center spending. GDP growth for Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%. But … “If you back out the data center AI GDP number, about 1.5%, which doesn’t really add to the labor force, we were negative GDP.” AI capital expenditure has been “driving a lot of the GDP, and especially Nvidia.” But Dowd warns that that’s about to change. “AI CapEx is gonna be rolling over very soon.” “We just made the power complex that much more expensive.” “We don’t have enough electricity and water to fund all this CapEx for AI.” “It’s already starting to show signs of cracking because the debt markets are questioning the ROI on the whole complex.” “There’s not enough revenue to support this CapEx spend.” Edward Dowd Jeffrey A Tucker
1:46

“We have an AI bubble.” Edward Dowd just revealed an uncomfortable truth about AI data center spending. GDP growth for Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%. But … “If you back out the data center AI GDP number, about 1.5%, which doesn’t really add to the labor force, we were negative GDP.” AI capital expenditure has been “driving a lot of the GDP, and especially Nvidia.” But Dowd warns that that’s about to change. “AI CapEx is gonna be rolling over very soon.” “We just made the power complex that much more expensive.” “We don’t have enough electricity and water to fund all this CapEx for AI.” “It’s already starting to show signs of cracking because the debt markets are questioning the ROI on the whole complex.” “There’s not enough revenue to support this CapEx spend.” Edward Dowd Jeffrey A Tucker

Brownstone Institute

23,331 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Ben Goertzel has spent 50 years working on AGI. He coined the term. He's building it right now. His (Ben Goertzel) message to me was uncomfortably simple: you have about two years before AI starts changing everything, your job included. "Once you have a human level thinking machine, it will pretty soon be able to take on all the economic activity people do." And the part nobody's pricing in: the interim period. The stretch where AI is good enough to take your job, but the system isn't ready to hand you anything back. No safety net built for it. No playbook. We cover: - Why the entire US economy is now one giant bet on AI taking over, and what happens if that bet fails - The interim period: mass displacement before mass abundance - Why he says UBI becomes unavoidable - Why blockchain is the one technology that keeps this future out of the hands of a few tech giants - What machines improving themselves actually looks like, from someone building it The biggest transition in human history, explained by one of the people causing it. Thanks to our sponsor for sponsoring todays episode. Make sure to use their 8% deposit bonus in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 01:00 - Are We Really Two Years Away? 09:07 - The Curve That Changes Everything 14:28 - The Singularity Explained 16:48 - When AI Takes Your Job 24:55 - The Ethics Nobody's Ready For 32:02 - Decentralized vs Centralized AI 45:47 - The Rise Of AI Agents 52:13 - Why Centralized AI Is Dangerous 57:01 - The Fight To Decentralize 1:03:11 - Your Job In An AI World
1:15:08

Ben Goertzel has spent 50 years working on AGI. He coined the term. He's building it right now. His (Ben Goertzel) message to me was uncomfortably simple: you have about two years before AI starts changing everything, your job included. "Once you have a human level thinking machine, it will pretty soon be able to take on all the economic activity people do." And the part nobody's pricing in: the interim period. The stretch where AI is good enough to take your job, but the system isn't ready to hand you anything back. No safety net built for it. No playbook. We cover: - Why the entire US economy is now one giant bet on AI taking over, and what happens if that bet fails - The interim period: mass displacement before mass abundance - Why he says UBI becomes unavoidable - Why blockchain is the one technology that keeps this future out of the hands of a few tech giants - What machines improving themselves actually looks like, from someone building it The biggest transition in human history, explained by one of the people causing it. Thanks to our sponsor for sponsoring todays episode. Make sure to use their 8% deposit bonus in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 01:00 - Are We Really Two Years Away? 09:07 - The Curve That Changes Everything 14:28 - The Singularity Explained 16:48 - When AI Takes Your Job 24:55 - The Ethics Nobody's Ready For 32:02 - Decentralized vs Centralized AI 45:47 - The Rise Of AI Agents 52:13 - Why Centralized AI Is Dangerous 57:01 - The Fight To Decentralize 1:03:11 - Your Job In An AI World

Michaël van de Poppe

160,777 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: THE NEXT WORLD WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH GOLD Central banks are buying gold at record speed. China is trading oil in yuan. And the U.S. dollar’s grip on the world is starting to slip. Luke Gromen breaks down how the balance of power is shifting from paper to metal. * How China and Russia are using gold to undermine the dollar * Why America’s debt addiction is forcing the world to look for a plan B * How the yuan-gold trade network could upend global finance * Why Europe’s energy policies are pushing it toward decline * And what happens when the U.S. and China lock into economic warfare that no one can win Gromen says this is not just about money or markets. It is about control, and the side that owns the gold writes the rules. 03:08 – Central Banks Are Buying Gold Fast, but why now? 06:09 – Why gold is the “anti-dollar” and how it protects wealth 09:15 – Lessons from the 1970s: What China learned from U.S. gold mistakes 13:19 – The dollar vs. the yuan: The real global currency war 16:00 – Gold rising as the new global reserve 20:36 – Is the U.S. secretly importing massive amounts of gold? 23:55 – What happens if the dollar loses its throne? 30:36 – Why this could trigger the biggest boom since WW2 36:04 – China’s economy: crisis or calm? 43:56 – Why decoupling means more inflation, not less 49:01 – The rare earths trap: how China cornered the U.S. 55:09 – How China quietly captured corporate America 59:05 – Can a multipolar world actually work? 01:00:15 – Is Europe committing economic suicide? 01:05:14 – Closing thoughts: Can rational leadership return?
1:05:42

🚨🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: THE NEXT WORLD WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH GOLD Central banks are buying gold at record speed. China is trading oil in yuan. And the U.S. dollar’s grip on the world is starting to slip. Luke Gromen breaks down how the balance of power is shifting from paper to metal. * How China and Russia are using gold to undermine the dollar * Why America’s debt addiction is forcing the world to look for a plan B * How the yuan-gold trade network could upend global finance * Why Europe’s energy policies are pushing it toward decline * And what happens when the U.S. and China lock into economic warfare that no one can win Gromen says this is not just about money or markets. It is about control, and the side that owns the gold writes the rules. 03:08 – Central Banks Are Buying Gold Fast, but why now? 06:09 – Why gold is the “anti-dollar” and how it protects wealth 09:15 – Lessons from the 1970s: What China learned from U.S. gold mistakes 13:19 – The dollar vs. the yuan: The real global currency war 16:00 – Gold rising as the new global reserve 20:36 – Is the U.S. secretly importing massive amounts of gold? 23:55 – What happens if the dollar loses its throne? 30:36 – Why this could trigger the biggest boom since WW2 36:04 – China’s economy: crisis or calm? 43:56 – Why decoupling means more inflation, not less 49:01 – The rare earths trap: how China cornered the U.S. 55:09 – How China quietly captured corporate America 59:05 – Can a multipolar world actually work? 01:00:15 – Is Europe committing economic suicide? 01:05:14 – Closing thoughts: Can rational leadership return?

Mario Nawfal

2,567,630 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce