正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

Walter Isaacson explains exactly how Elon Musk uses first principles thinking to build rockets: When young Elon wanted to send people to space, he first tried buying used rockets from Russia. They jacked him around - it didn’t work So he went back to first principles. He asked: Exactly...

718,697 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

0 条评论

暂无评论

原始帖子的评论将显示在这里

相关视频

Elon Musk explains the mental model he uses to learn anything 10x faster: "The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. We're doing this because it's like something else that was done, or it's like what other people are doing. 'Me too' type ideas. Slight iterations on a theme." Elon continues: "It's mentally easier to reason by analogy rather than from first principles. But first principles is kind of a physics way of looking at the world. What that really means is you boil things down to the most fundamental truths and say, 'What are we sure is true?' and then reason up from there. That takes a lot more mental energy." He gives the example of batteries: "Somebody could say, and people do, that battery packs are really expensive and that's just the way they'll always be, because that's the way they've been in the past. Well no, that's pretty dumb. If you applied that reasoning to anything new, you'd never get to that new thing." Elon explains how first principles changes the question entirely: "They would say historically it costs $600 per kilowatt hour, so it's not going to be much better than that in the future. First principles would say: What are the material constituents of the batteries? What is the spot market value of those materials? It's got cobalt, nickel, aluminum, carbon, some polymers, and a steel can. If we bought that on the London Metal Exchange, what would it cost? It's like $80 per kilowatt hour. So clearly, you just need to think of clever ways to combine those materials into the shape of a battery cell, and you can have batteries much cheaper than anyone realizes."

Jaynit

259,142 次观看 • 5 个月前

Walter Isaacson: If you don't want Elon Musk to control so many industries, you should learn to get stuff done too. “Why is Elon successful at some of these things, like getting 5,000 satellites up? He said we used to be a nation of really great risk-takers. Even the people who ran Boeing probably were risk-takers at one point. Not safety risks, but they were going to try rockets. He said everybody who came here, whether it was on the Mayflower or across the Rio Grande, they were adventurous, they took risks. He says nowadays we have more referees than we have risk-takers. We have more regulators than we have innovators. We have more people saying you can't do it, the lawyers, the whatever. He said it's made it so that our big military contractors can't get anything done. We can't get high-speed rail. I would think that the best way to make sure he doesn't have so much clout on things is for somebody to be able to build more electric vehicles. He built a charging network and then the US Government, Ford, GM, decided to build their own, and they've surrendered because the Tesla charging network works. I'm not trying to just sing his praises, but it would be useful if you don't want him to control the charging network in America, if you don't want him to control the Internet in outer space, if you don't want him to control rocket launches, to have Boeing and Northrop Grumman and others be able to get stuff done.” The 92nd Street Y, October 13, 2023

ELON CLIPS

2,517,073 次观看 • 1 年前

Walter Isaacson: Those who don't want Elon Musk to control so many industries should learn to get stuff done too. “Why is Elon successful at some of these things, like getting 5,000 satellites up? He said we used to be a nation of really great risk-takers. Even the people who ran Boeing probably were risk-takers at one point. Not safety risks, but they were going to try rockets. He said everybody who came here, whether it was on the Mayflower or across the Rio Grande, they were adventurous, they took risks. He says nowadays we have more referees than we have risk-takers. We have more regulators than we have innovators. We have more people saying you can't do it, the lawyers, the whatever. He said it's made it so that our big military contractors can't get anything done. We can't get high-speed rail. I would think that the best way to make sure he doesn't have so much clout on things is for somebody to be able to build more electric vehicles. He built a charging network and then the US Government, Ford, GM, decided to build their own, and they've surrendered because the Tesla charging network works. I'm not trying to just sing his praises, but it would be useful if you don't want him to control the charging network in America, if you don't want him to control the Internet in outer space, if you don't want him to control rocket launches, to have Boeing and Northrop Grumman and others be able to get stuff done.” The 92nd Street Y, October 13, 2023

ELON CLIPS

1,733,553 次观看 • 1 年前

In 2002, Elon Musk tried to buy a rocket. The Russians quoted him $8 million per unit. American aerospace companies wanted over $65 million. He walked away from both. On the flight home, he opened a spreadsheet and broke down the raw materials. Aerospace-grade aluminum. Titanium. Copper. Carbon fiber. He priced each on the commodity market. The total came to roughly 2% of what the industry was charging. That gap is what first principles thinking actually looks like. Not "how do we negotiate a better deal." Not "who else sells rockets." Just: what is this thing actually made of, and why does it cost what it costs? The answer was overhead. Legacy processes. Layers of contractors and subcontractors. Margins stacked on margins. Nobody had questioned the price because nobody had questioned the structure. Musk decided to build it himself. The first Falcon 1 exploded 33 seconds after launch. The second made it further but failed to reach orbit. The third exploded too. Three rockets. Three failures. SpaceX was almost out of money. Musk put his last $35 million into the company. If the fourth launch failed, that was it. September 28, 2008. Falcon 1 Flight 4 reached orbit. First privately developed liquid fuel rocket to ever do it. Seven years later, they landed a booster back on Earth for the first time. Now they do it routinely. The cost per launch dropped from $65 million to under $3 million for a reused Falcon 9 booster. Everyone else was reasoning by analogy: rockets are expensive because rockets have always been expensive. Musk reasoned from atoms: rockets are expensive because nobody rebuilt the system from the ground up.

Peak Thinkers

160,186 次观看 • 1 个月前