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🚨 Elon Musk explained why Tesla cannot yet scale Cybercab deployments despite billions of FSD miles. • New vehicle chassis requires its own driving data • Temporary steering wheels and pedals used for validation • Software must be calibrated to Cybercab dynamics • Generalization across cities is progressing •...

288,602 views • 4 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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CYBERCAB & THE AUTONOMOUS FUTURE: TESLA’S VISION FOR A WORLD WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS – ELON MUSK ON THE END OF HUMAN DRIVING Cybercab is more than a robotaxi—it’s the physical manifestation of Tesla’s bet that full autonomy will make human-driven cars obsolete. No steering wheel, no pedals, no driver—just summon, ride, and arrive cheaper, safer, and greener than any alternative. With production targeted for in Q2’26, Cybercab paves the way for a transportation revolution where personal car ownership becomes optional and roads become dramatically safer. “The future is autonomous. Once you have unsupervised FSD that’s safer than human drivers, owning a car becomes optional for most people. Cybercab will cost so little per mile that it will be cheaper to use a robotaxi than to own and maintain a vehicle.” This shift changes everything: • Cost collapse — ~$0.20–$0.30 per mile vs. today’s $1+ for rideshares or $0.60–$1.00 for personal car ownership (including depreciation, insurance, fuel/charging, maintenance). • Safety leap — Unsupervised FSD eliminates the ~94% of crashes caused by human error—potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives annually once scaled. • Abundance of mobility — Fleets of Cybercabs run 24/7 at high utilization, turning idle time into revenue and freeing up parking space for parks, housing, and commerce. • Environmental win — Electric, efficient, and shared—massive reduction in emissions compared to today’s car-centric infrastructure. • New economy — Owners can add their Cybercabs (or future autonomous Teslas) to the network for passive income; cities rethink zoning, traffic, and public transit. Cybercab isn’t the endgame—it’s the beginning of an era where transportation becomes a utility like electricity or internet: always available, incredibly cheap, and far safer than today. From Model S proving EVs could be desirable to Cybercab proving autonomy can be ubiquitous, Tesla is rewriting mobility.

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley

18,653 views • 6 months ago

The Cybercab is aiming to produce 2 million units per year. Let this sink in. Today, Tesla produces about ~1.7 million vehicles per year total, across its entire lineup. And now Tesla is preparing to outproduce that with one single vehicle, a fully autonomous one. This is Elon and Tesla going ALL-IN on autonomy. Production is scheduled to start April 2026 at Giga Texas, with volume ramping throughout the year. And as of early 2026, Cybercab prototypes are already being tested around the U.S. The Tesla Cybercab is built from the ground up for unsupervised autonomy. There is no steering wheel and no pedals, just cameras, AI, and Tesla’s custom inference computers. No lidar and radar like other companies, just pure vision and software. Elon put it best on the Q3 2024 earnings call: “It’s not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab.” That quote matters a lot bc that means the entire way a vehicle is manufactured is changing with the Cybercab. Tesla is designing what Elon calls “the machine that builds the machine.” The Cybercab uses Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing process, where major sections are built in parallel instead of one long assembly line. There are fewer parts, less steps & cost, and faster scale. That’s how you make 2 million Cybercabs per year possible. FYI, this is not going to be easy though. Elon has been brutally honest about production for many years: • “Prototypes are easy, production is hard.” • “The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is poorly understood. It’s 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes.” • “For cars, it’s maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself.” He reinforced this again in January 2026 when talking about Cybercab and Optimus on 𝕏: “Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow - but eventually end up being insanely fast.” This is the key thing most people miss about Tesla manufacturing. Early output will be slow by design. Almost everything is new like the vehicle architecture, factory layout, AI hardware, and manufacturing flow. But once it works and clicks, it begins to scale hard. Tesla already proved they can do this. They survived Model 3 production hell. They turned Model Y into the BEST selling car in the world, of any kind. They ramped Cybertruck, which has over 30,000+ unique parts, to meaningful volume. Elon summed it up perfectly in 2024: “Compared to the insane pain of reaching high volume, positive margin production, prototypes are a piece of cake.” That’s why Tesla makes manufacturing look easy bc they already earned the scars from the last vehicle lineups. The Cybercab is aiming to be: 1/ Under $30,000 price 2/ ~$0.20 per mile operating cost 3/ 200+ mile range 4/ Up to 5x utilization vs personal cars 5/ Designed to run nearly nonstop 24/7 This is what you call manufacturing + AI + autonomy converging at scale. The competitors are still showing prototypes and demos, while Tesla is building new production lines, expanding factories, and actually building the product. I remember when Elon told me in the past that one of Tesla’s key advantage long term was going to be manufacturing technology. I get it now.

Teslaconomics

31,985 views • 6 months ago

A new 30-minute presentation from Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, has been released, where he talks about FSD, AI and the team’s latest progress. Highlight from the presentation: • Tesla's vehicle fleet can provide 500 years of driving data every single day. Curse of Dimensionality: • 8 cameras at high frame rate = billions of tokens per 30 seconds of driving context. • Tesla must compress and extract the right correlations between sensory input and control actions. Data Advantage: • Tesla has access to a “Niagara Falls of data” — hundreds of years’ worth of collective fleet driving. • Uses smart data triggers to capture rare corner cases (e.g., complex intersections, unpredictable behavior). Quality and Efficiency: • Extracts only the essential data needed to train models efficiently. Debugging and Interpretability: • Even though the system is end-to-end, Tesla can still prompt the model to output interpretable data: 3D occupancy, road boundaries, objects, signs, traffic lights, etc. • Natural language querying: ask the model why it made a certain decision. • These auxiliary predictions don’t drive the car but help engineers debug and ensure safety. Tesla’s Advanced Gaussian Splatting (3D Scene Modeling): • Tesla developed a custom, ultra-fast Gaussian splatting system to reconstruct 3D scenes from limited camera views. • Produces crisp, accurate 3D renderings even from few camera angles — far better than standard NeRF/splatting approaches. • Enables rapid visual debugging of the driving environment in 3D. Evaluation & World Models: • Evaluation is the hardest challenge: models may perform well offline but fail in real-world conditions. • Tesla builds balanced, diverse evaluation datasets focusing on edge cases — not just easy highway driving. Introduced a learned world simulator (neural network-generated video engine): • Can simulate 8 Tesla camera feeds simultaneously — fully synthetic. • Used for testing, training, and reinforcement learning. • Allows adversarial event injection (e.g., adding a pedestrian or vehicle cutting in). • Enables replaying past failures to verify new model improvements. • Can run in near real-time, letting testers “drive” inside a simulated world. What’s Next: • Scale robotaxi service globally. • Unlock full autonomy across the entire Tesla fleet. • Cybercab: next-gen 2-seat vehicle designed specifically for robotaxi use, targeting lowest transportation cost (cheaper than public transit). • Same neural networks will power Optimus humanoid robot. • The same video generation system is now being applied to Optimus. • The system can simulate and plan movement for robots, adapting easily to new forms. via the International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV). Full presentation:

Sawyer Merritt

1,287,003 views • 9 months ago

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

112,667 views • 6 months ago

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

140,963 views • 6 months ago