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🚨 Elon Musk explained why Tesla cannot yet scale Cybercab deployments despite billions of FSD miles. • New vehicle chassis requires its own driving data • Temporary steering wheels and pedals used for validation • Software must be calibrated to Cybercab dynamics • Generalization across cities is progressing •...

301,792 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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CYBERCAB & THE AUTONOMOUS FUTURE: TESLA’S VISION FOR A WORLD WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS – ELON MUSK ON THE END OF HUMAN DRIVING Cybercab is more than a robotaxi—it’s the physical manifestation of Tesla’s bet that full autonomy will make human-driven cars obsolete. No steering wheel, no pedals, no driver—just summon, ride, and arrive cheaper, safer, and greener than any alternative. With production targeted for in Q2’26, Cybercab paves the way for a transportation revolution where personal car ownership becomes optional and roads become dramatically safer. “The future is autonomous. Once you have unsupervised FSD that’s safer than human drivers, owning a car becomes optional for most people. Cybercab will cost so little per mile that it will be cheaper to use a robotaxi than to own and maintain a vehicle.” This shift changes everything: • Cost collapse — ~$0.20–$0.30 per mile vs. today’s $1+ for rideshares or $0.60–$1.00 for personal car ownership (including depreciation, insurance, fuel/charging, maintenance). • Safety leap — Unsupervised FSD eliminates the ~94% of crashes caused by human error—potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives annually once scaled. • Abundance of mobility — Fleets of Cybercabs run 24/7 at high utilization, turning idle time into revenue and freeing up parking space for parks, housing, and commerce. • Environmental win — Electric, efficient, and shared—massive reduction in emissions compared to today’s car-centric infrastructure. • New economy — Owners can add their Cybercabs (or future autonomous Teslas) to the network for passive income; cities rethink zoning, traffic, and public transit. Cybercab isn’t the endgame—it’s the beginning of an era where transportation becomes a utility like electricity or internet: always available, incredibly cheap, and far safer than today. From Model S proving EVs could be desirable to Cybercab proving autonomy can be ubiquitous, Tesla is rewriting mobility.

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley

18,653 次观看 • 7 个月前

Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Teslaconomics

34,223 次观看 • 13 天前

The Cybercab is aiming to produce 2 million units per year. Let this sink in. Today, Tesla produces about ~1.7 million vehicles per year total, across its entire lineup. And now Tesla is preparing to outproduce that with one single vehicle, a fully autonomous one. This is Elon and Tesla going ALL-IN on autonomy. Production is scheduled to start April 2026 at Giga Texas, with volume ramping throughout the year. And as of early 2026, Cybercab prototypes are already being tested around the U.S. The Tesla Cybercab is built from the ground up for unsupervised autonomy. There is no steering wheel and no pedals, just cameras, AI, and Tesla’s custom inference computers. No lidar and radar like other companies, just pure vision and software. Elon put it best on the Q3 2024 earnings call: “It’s not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab.” That quote matters a lot bc that means the entire way a vehicle is manufactured is changing with the Cybercab. Tesla is designing what Elon calls “the machine that builds the machine.” The Cybercab uses Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing process, where major sections are built in parallel instead of one long assembly line. There are fewer parts, less steps & cost, and faster scale. That’s how you make 2 million Cybercabs per year possible. FYI, this is not going to be easy though. Elon has been brutally honest about production for many years: • “Prototypes are easy, production is hard.” • “The extreme difficulty of scaling production of new technology is poorly understood. It’s 1000% to 10,000% harder than making a few prototypes.” • “For cars, it’s maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself.” He reinforced this again in January 2026 when talking about Cybercab and Optimus on 𝕏: “Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow - but eventually end up being insanely fast.” This is the key thing most people miss about Tesla manufacturing. Early output will be slow by design. Almost everything is new like the vehicle architecture, factory layout, AI hardware, and manufacturing flow. But once it works and clicks, it begins to scale hard. Tesla already proved they can do this. They survived Model 3 production hell. They turned Model Y into the BEST selling car in the world, of any kind. They ramped Cybertruck, which has over 30,000+ unique parts, to meaningful volume. Elon summed it up perfectly in 2024: “Compared to the insane pain of reaching high volume, positive margin production, prototypes are a piece of cake.” That’s why Tesla makes manufacturing look easy bc they already earned the scars from the last vehicle lineups. The Cybercab is aiming to be: 1/ Under $30,000 price 2/ ~$0.20 per mile operating cost 3/ 200+ mile range 4/ Up to 5x utilization vs personal cars 5/ Designed to run nearly nonstop 24/7 This is what you call manufacturing + AI + autonomy converging at scale. The competitors are still showing prototypes and demos, while Tesla is building new production lines, expanding factories, and actually building the product. I remember when Elon told me in the past that one of Tesla’s key advantage long term was going to be manufacturing technology. I get it now.

Teslaconomics

31,985 次观看 • 8 个月前

I got in a Tesla Cybercab in Austin, hit record, and ate boba and popcorn chicken while the car handled the road.That’s the whole point. I did not have to watch traffic. I did not have to keep my hands free. I did not have to stay alert for the next light, lane change, or random driver. The Cybercab has no steering wheel and no pedals. There is no driver. There is no stranger sitting up front. So I could actually eat and just be in the car.This video is that ride. Doors close themselves. The cabin is already set how I like it. I slurp the boba, eat the popcorn chicken, look around, talk, film, and never once have to snap back to the road. That is the difference. In a normal car, eating is a split-attention thing. In this, the road is not my job.Once that clicks, the rest of it makes sense. You can open a laptop and work. You can take a call without saying “sorry, I’m driving.” You can recline and close your eyes. You can treat the cabin like a private room that happens to be moving. Productivity is not a pitch deck idea here. It is what happens when you stop spending the whole trip managing the street. If you have been waiting for a real Austin Cybercab ride instead of a staged walkaround, this is it. Messy food. No driver. No road stress.Riding a Cybercab without worrying about the road. Eating in a robotaxi like it is actually your space. No driver, no strangers, no performance. Using the cabin as a working station. Falling asleep in an AV in a way you cannot in a normal ride. Filmed in Austin, Texas in a Tesla Cybercab / Robotaxi. Subscribe if you want more of these. Video shot on ⁨Insta360⁩ Luna Ultra Thanks Kim Java for filming! Elon Musk Tesla Tesla_AI

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley

40,093 次观看 • 16 天前

I think people are seriously underestimating what Cybercab means for Tesla’s future. For the past few years, everyone has been waiting for a smaller, cheaper Tesla to restart growth. And as that car failed to arrive, the assumption became that Tesla had lost its way or abandoned its high-volume ambitions. I think Tesla is laying the foundation for something much bigger. My read is that Elon made a deliberate decision to give up the obvious next product—a cheaper car with a steering wheel—and concentrate the company’s engineering talent on Cybercab and FSD. That takes conviction. You’re walking away from a product people already want, accepting slower growth, and putting enormous pressure on your teams to deliver. But I think Elon understands something that gets overlooked: a large company can have all the talent and resources in the world and still produce mediocre products because its attention is scattered. Remove the backup plan, and suddenly the entire company has to make this work. That kind of urgency can produce extraordinary innovation. And here’s where I think this gets really interesting. Once Tesla proves Cybercab’s software, manufacturing, and vehicle architecture, it can build an entire lineup on that foundation. Small cars. Larger cars. SUVs. All designed around the passenger. All benefiting from simpler systems, fewer parts, and a fundamentally different way of manufacturing. That’s the path I see back to millions more vehicles a year. Cybercab is the first step in that future. The work going into it today could make the vehicles that follow dramatically better and more affordable. Yes, Tesla is paying a price for this decision right now. But I think the focus it creates gives Tesla a much stronger shot at leading the next era of transportation. Five or ten years from now, I suspect we’ll look back at this period and realize how much of Tesla’s future was being built while people were declaring its growth story over. I break down the reasoning and the path ahead in my new video.

Dave Lee

367,988 次观看 • 16 天前