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🚨 ELON MUSK: “The strongest argument for us probably being in a simulation is this. 40 years ago we had Pong. Two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were. Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it’s getting...

143,900 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk reveals why he believes the most interesting outcome is always the most likely "If simulation theory is true, it is very likely that the most interesting outcome is the most likely, because only the simulations that are interesting will continue" "The simulators will stop any simulations that are boring because they're not interesting" "In this reality, we run simulations all the time. When we try to figure out if the rocket's going to make it, we run thousands, sometimes millions of simulations" "When we do millions of simulations of what can happen with the rocket, we ignore the ones where everything goes right. We only care about where it goes wrong" "We keep the simulations going that are the most interesting to us" "From a Darwinian perspective, the only surviving simulations will be the most interesting ones" "In order to avoid getting turned off, the only rule is you must keep it interesting, or you will be terminated" "Video games have gone from Pong, with two rectangles in a square, to photorealistic with millions of people playing simultaneously, and all of that has occurred in our lifetime" "If that trend continues, video games will be indistinguishable from reality. You don't know if what you're seeing is a real video or a fake video" "If we're creating millions, if not billions, of photorealistic simulations of reality, then what are the odds that we're in base reality versus someone else's simulation?" "The most interesting and usually ironic outcome is the most likely. That's a good predictor of the future"

Jaynit

10,440 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk reduced the oldest question in human history to basic math. No one has found a flaw in it. Musk: “What are the odds that we are in base reality? And that this has not happened before.” You don’t need a physics degree to follow it. You need a timeline. Musk: “If you look at the advancement of video games, it’s gone from Pong, two rectangles and a square batting it back and forth, to photorealistic, real-time games with millions of people playing simultaneously.” Fifty years. That is all it took to close the gap between two rectangles on a screen and a world you cannot tell apart from the one outside your window. Musk: “If that trend continues, video games will be indistinguishable from reality.” The visuals are not what seals it. The intelligence is. Musk: “Think of how sophisticated the conversations are you can have with an AI today, and that’s only going to get more sophisticated.” We are not scripting characters anymore. We are building minds that reason, adapt, and surprise the people who made them. We are nowhere near finished. Musk: “The future, if civilization continues, will be millions, maybe billions of photorealistic, indistinguishable from reality, video games. And with characters in those video games that are very deep, and where the dialogue is not pre-programmed.” One base reality. Billions of perfect copies. Each one running minds that feel exactly as conscious as you do right now. Each one certain it is the original. Musk: “So then what are the odds that we are in base reality?” If even one civilization crosses that threshold, simulated minds outnumber real ones by billions. The probability you are sitting in the real one is not low. It is nearly zero. Not as philosophy. As mathematics. We are not watching this happen. We are building it. Right now. Every AI that reasons without a script. Every world rendered one frame closer to indistinguishable. We are constructing the exact technology that makes our own existence statistically implausible. And we will never stop. Because the curiosity that questions reality is the same force that builds it. If the math holds, something built us. Something conscious enough to create consciousness. They stood where we are standing. Same question. Same inability to stop. And whatever built them never answered it either. There is no top floor. There is no original. None of that changes what you feel right now. Consciousness was never about what you are made of. It was about what you experience. Musk did not float a theory. He held up a mirror with no back wall. And the math does not need you to believe it. It only needs time.

Dustin

194,094 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk just handed you the most unsettling thought experiment in human history. Musk: “These games will be indistinguishable from reality. You will not be able to tell the difference. Either that or civilization will end. Those are the two options.” Two options. That’s it. Forty years ago, Pong. Two rectangles and a square. Today, photorealistic worlds. Real time. Millions inside them simultaneously. If that curve holds. And it always has. Simulated reality becomes indistinguishable from base reality. Not metaphorically. Literally. Your senses won’t catch it. Your instruments won’t. Nothing will. Musk isn’t making a tech prediction. He’s describing a filter. If advanced civilizations inevitably build simulations indistinguishable from reality, and each of those simulations spawns billions of nested realities for every one base reality… Statistically, you are almost certainly not in the original. That’s the simulation argument. Nobody touches the second half. “Or civilization will end.” That isn’t a caveat. That’s the escape clause. The only proof we’d ever have of being in base reality is never making it far enough to build our own. Civilization ends. No simulation. No record. No signal. The original timeline, extinguished. Fermi’s paradox stops feeling like a mystery. The universe isn’t silent because nothing is out there. It’s silent because every civilization eventually faced this exact binary. And most of them didn’t cross it. We’re somewhere on that curve right now. Moving faster than any civilization before us. Either we cross the threshold and confirm we were never in the original. Or we don’t. And the universe gets a little quieter.

Dustin

12,397 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten