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First Principles Ep. 4 with Alvin Roth Long before crypto made coordination programmable, Nobel Prize winner Alvin Roth was designing markets where coordination could save lives, matching doctors to hospitals, students to schools, and kidney donors to the patients who need them. Roth explains why markets are not just...

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a16z crypto

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125,607 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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First Principles Ep. 5 with Paul Milgrom One of the most important auction designs in modern history was sold to the FCC on a 3.5-inch disk. Nobel Prize winner Paul Milgrom on auctions, price discovery, and how mechanism design became real-world infrastructure — from spectrum auctions to DeFi. Hosted by Tim Roughgarden with Scott Kominers. 00:00 Intro: economics assumptions that are “just wrong” 02:19 Scott Kominers and Tim Roughgarden on the genius of Paul Milgrom 05:35 An intro to the Glosten-Milgrom model: The paper that created entire fields of economics 07:48 The auction theory breakthroughs of the 1980s 17:15 Why market microstructure matters for DeFi 24:17 When math teaches economics something new 32:38 How theory became spectrum auction design 36:22 The floppy disk that helped convince the FCC 41:05 What changed when auctions moved online 45:28 The auction that reorganized television 1:07:30 What economics and computer science can learn from each other 1:13:22 Futures markets for compute 1:15:12 Paul Milgrom’s advice for builders
1:18:00

First Principles Ep. 5 with Paul Milgrom One of the most important auction designs in modern history was sold to the FCC on a 3.5-inch disk. Nobel Prize winner Paul Milgrom on auctions, price discovery, and how mechanism design became real-world infrastructure — from spectrum auctions to DeFi. Hosted by Tim Roughgarden with Scott Kominers. 00:00 Intro: economics assumptions that are “just wrong” 02:19 Scott Kominers and Tim Roughgarden on the genius of Paul Milgrom 05:35 An intro to the Glosten-Milgrom model: The paper that created entire fields of economics 07:48 The auction theory breakthroughs of the 1980s 17:15 Why market microstructure matters for DeFi 24:17 When math teaches economics something new 32:38 How theory became spectrum auction design 36:22 The floppy disk that helped convince the FCC 41:05 What changed when auctions moved online 45:28 The auction that reorganized television 1:07:30 What economics and computer science can learn from each other 1:13:22 Futures markets for compute 1:15:12 Paul Milgrom’s advice for builders

a16z crypto

33,605 次观看 • 29 天前

INSIDE JUPITER: TRADING THE NEWS WITH PREDICTION MARKETS This episode with Julian breaks down why prediction markets are becoming a core primitive of Web4, how the Polymarket partnership fits the Jupiter full-stack vision, and why the future isn’t a separate product it’s prediction embedded everywhere. time stamps : 00:00 Intro Inside Jupiter HQ 00:18 Who's Julian and what's his role 00:44 What JuPredict actually is: “trading the news” 01:11 Polymarket × Jupiter 02:01 Why prediction markets are emerging 03:00 Markets vs commentators 04:24 Local & social prediction markets 05:15 On-chain transparency & global accessibility 06:27 Prediction markets in the Jupiter Web4 stack 07:48 The vision: predicting from any interface 09:28 Why people misread market prices 10:20 The real edge: studying trade flow before events 11:05 What prediction markets are best at predicting 11:40 Consistency & accuracy of the markets 12:10 Message to the community
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INSIDE JUPITER: TRADING THE NEWS WITH PREDICTION MARKETS This episode with Julian breaks down why prediction markets are becoming a core primitive of Web4, how the Polymarket partnership fits the Jupiter full-stack vision, and why the future isn’t a separate product it’s prediction embedded everywhere. time stamps : 00:00 Intro Inside Jupiter HQ 00:18 Who's Julian and what's his role 00:44 What JuPredict actually is: “trading the news” 01:11 Polymarket × Jupiter 02:01 Why prediction markets are emerging 03:00 Markets vs commentators 04:24 Local & social prediction markets 05:15 On-chain transparency & global accessibility 06:27 Prediction markets in the Jupiter Web4 stack 07:48 The vision: predicting from any interface 09:28 Why people misread market prices 10:20 The real edge: studying trade flow before events 11:05 What prediction markets are best at predicting 11:40 Consistency & accuracy of the markets 12:10 Message to the community

JUP AND JUICE (🧃)

20,990 次观看 • 5 个月前

I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss why bitcoin is the purest AI trade available in the market, breakdown of energy infrastructure, how to invest amid the government shutdown, the Fed/interest rates, and why prediction markets and tokenization are two big themes moving forward. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:04 - Why bitcoin is the purest AI trade 11:43 - The impact of new energy infrastructure 16:53 - How Base Power is building a decentralized grid and other opportunities for investors 23:49 - Why retail spots themes before institutions 32:33 - Retail orange-pilling each other in public 37:25 - What is the impact of government shutdown on financial markets? 40:25 - The rise of prediction markets and tokenization 49:28 - Where to follow Jordi on the internet
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I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss why bitcoin is the purest AI trade available in the market, breakdown of energy infrastructure, how to invest amid the government shutdown, the Fed/interest rates, and why prediction markets and tokenization are two big themes moving forward. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:04 - Why bitcoin is the purest AI trade 11:43 - The impact of new energy infrastructure 16:53 - How Base Power is building a decentralized grid and other opportunities for investors 23:49 - Why retail spots themes before institutions 32:33 - Retail orange-pilling each other in public 37:25 - What is the impact of government shutdown on financial markets? 40:25 - The rise of prediction markets and tokenization 49:28 - Where to follow Jordi on the internet

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

110,012 次观看 • 10 个月前

FROM A $50 SALARY IN SYRIA TO A $6M ROUND Episode 5 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from a founder who restarted from zero three times and never sent a single cold email to close his round Ali, founder and CEO of XO Market. We go deep into why 400+ prediction markets are just copies of the same model, why a whale unfairly resolving his Polymarket bet became the tipping point, and how AI agents now decide market outcomes instead of humans Now he's building XO Market, where anyone can turn any idea into a conviction market. Everything you need to know about user-generated markets, XO Vaults and the future of prediction markets is in this episode --- Win 1,000 Conviction Points and get access to XO's weekly parlays with prizes up to $50,000 (we'll pick the winner on July 13): - sign up via the link: -drop your username with your most creative comment or question about the episode and follow Predict Time and XO Market --- Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Raising $6M without pitching a single VC 04:29 Why not just copy Polymarket 07:05 Advice for builders: grants over VC money 12:15 Building a team across every continent 15:52 Ali's story: from Syria to Switzerland 19:29 Leaving corporate (Roche) for crypto 22:24 Why raising money is a liability, not a win 25:42 How XO Market conviction markets actually work 29:43 What stops thousands of dead markets 32:41 The tech that gives markets instant liquidity 37:43 How to create your own market 39:14 Getting attention: local communities & ambassadors 44:20 Not the of prediction markets 48:22 Who decides the outcome: AI resolution 51:43 XO Vault: market making for everyone 56:47 The moment XO Market took off 1:02:14 Is prediction market usage exaggerated? 1:05:17 Elon Musk and mention markets 1:07:04 AI vs humans: jobs and the jury system 1:13:56 Are Polymarket & Kalshi overvalued? 1:16:16 What's next: Parlays, Vaults & the World Cup 1:23:06 Is XO Market becoming a sportsbook? 1:25:15 AI agents trading on their own 1:27:40 Regulation & staying permissionless 1:33:08 The investors: 20VC, Harry & a cricket legend 1:44:55 Will there be a token? 1:46:45 Blitz: rapid-fire round 1:52:59 Closing & giveaway
1:55:06

FROM A $50 SALARY IN SYRIA TO A $6M ROUND Episode 5 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from a founder who restarted from zero three times and never sent a single cold email to close his round Ali, founder and CEO of XO Market. We go deep into why 400+ prediction markets are just copies of the same model, why a whale unfairly resolving his Polymarket bet became the tipping point, and how AI agents now decide market outcomes instead of humans Now he's building XO Market, where anyone can turn any idea into a conviction market. Everything you need to know about user-generated markets, XO Vaults and the future of prediction markets is in this episode --- Win 1,000 Conviction Points and get access to XO's weekly parlays with prizes up to $50,000 (we'll pick the winner on July 13): - sign up via the link: -drop your username with your most creative comment or question about the episode and follow Predict Time and XO Market --- Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Raising $6M without pitching a single VC 04:29 Why not just copy Polymarket 07:05 Advice for builders: grants over VC money 12:15 Building a team across every continent 15:52 Ali's story: from Syria to Switzerland 19:29 Leaving corporate (Roche) for crypto 22:24 Why raising money is a liability, not a win 25:42 How XO Market conviction markets actually work 29:43 What stops thousands of dead markets 32:41 The tech that gives markets instant liquidity 37:43 How to create your own market 39:14 Getting attention: local communities & ambassadors 44:20 Not the of prediction markets 48:22 Who decides the outcome: AI resolution 51:43 XO Vault: market making for everyone 56:47 The moment XO Market took off 1:02:14 Is prediction market usage exaggerated? 1:05:17 Elon Musk and mention markets 1:07:04 AI vs humans: jobs and the jury system 1:13:56 Are Polymarket & Kalshi overvalued? 1:16:16 What's next: Parlays, Vaults & the World Cup 1:23:06 Is XO Market becoming a sportsbook? 1:25:15 AI agents trading on their own 1:27:40 Regulation & staying permissionless 1:33:08 The investors: 20VC, Harry & a cricket legend 1:44:55 Will there be a token? 1:46:45 Blitz: rapid-fire round 1:52:59 Closing & giveaway

Predict Time

24,425 次观看 • 1 个月前

"Prediction markets have basically killed the altcoin casino." The Wolf Of All Streets joins Jenn Sanasie to discuss why retail left alts, why $ZEC as "private Bitcoin" makes him want to puke, and where $BTC goes from here. 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight? 06:08 - Scott’s Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino 13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year
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"Prediction markets have basically killed the altcoin casino." The Wolf Of All Streets joins Jenn Sanasie to discuss why retail left alts, why $ZEC as "private Bitcoin" makes him want to puke, and where $BTC goes from here. 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight? 06:08 - Scott’s Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino 13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year

CoinDesk

22,771 次观看 • 2 个月前

My dear friend, Vlad Tenev, changed the landscape of investing forever! The rise of the retail investor is largely due to Robinhood's success... and in this new Journey Man, we discuss it all... Enjoy! 00:00 - Intro 00:53 - Introducing Vlad Tenev of Robinhood 01:27 - Why Take on Wall Street? 01:54 - Robinhood’s Zero-Fee Origin Story 02:53 - Inspiration from Instagram and Uber 04:24 - Reimagining Trading for Mobile 05:05 - The Challenge of Disrupting Finance 05:42 - Why Everything Is Hard 06:34 - Early Wrong Assumptions 07:42 - Raising Capital with a Small Vision 08:48 - Funding Robinhood on AngelList 09:50 - Early Investors Changed Their Lives 10:38 - The Crypto Explosion Begins 11:07 - Considering a Bitcoin Exchange First 12:17 - Bitcoin’s Early Skepticism and Growth 13:08 - Robinhood Launches Crypto in 2018 14:03 - 2020: Crypto Revenue Surges Overnight 15:04 - The Challenge of Crypto Cyclicality 16:11 - Staffing a Volatile Business 17:10 - Building Robinhood’s Lean Crypto Team 18:46 - Robinhood’s First Crypto Event Coming 19:38 - Where TradFi Meets DeFi 20:34 - Tokenizing Everything 21:09 - Robinhood’s Vision for Crypto + Finance 21:47 - Thoughts on Crypto Options Demand 23:04 - Why Crypto Options Haven’t Taken Off 24:09 - Millennials and the Speculative Economy 25:22 - Democratizing Trading for Everyone 26:08 - Why Buy-and-Hold Doesn’t Work for All 27:15 - Trading vs Investing: A Matter of Wealth 28:01 - Trading as a Skill Anyone Can Build 29:13 - Robinhood’s Role in Onboarding Millions 30:06 - The Fed's Role and Retail Insight 31:03 - The Rise of the Retail Macro Trader 32:17 - Helping Users Succeed with Robinhood Strategies 33:35 - Power of Community and the Hive Mind 34:55 - Will AI Disrupt Community Too? 36:14 - Technological Waves and Investor Opportunity 37:10 - Human Purpose in an AI World 37:52 - Tokenizing Human Connection 38:28 - Creators, Platforms, and Future-Proofing 39:26 - Vlad’s Long-Term View of the Future 40:05 - Financial Services at the Heart of Disruption 41:14 - If AI Replaces Jobs, What Happens to Investing? 42:25 - Entering the Economic Singularity 43:31 - What Happens When AIs Win the Markets? 44:16 - AI's Role in Capital and Markets 45:07 - Will AI Eliminate Human Emotion from Markets? 46:06 - HFT: The Original AI Traders 47:20 - AI and Long-Term Probabilistic Forecasting 48:48 - GPUs, Gaming, and the Origins of AI 50:01 - Nvidia, CUDA, and Wall Street Arms Races 51:04 - Flash Boys and Microwave Trading 51:54 - Will AI Costs Go to Zero? 52:52 - Lower Cost, Higher Usage 53:41 - Robinhood’s UX Won’t Be Just a Chatbox 55:16 - Cortex: AI-Powered Features at Robinhood 56:54 - Tokenization and the Future of Asset Management 57:44 - Crowdsourced, Tokenized Hedge Funds 58:48 - Portability of Tokenized Assets 59:39 - Blockchain as the New Rails of Finance 01:00:09 - The Trump Token and Capital Formation 01:01:00 - Capital Access Unlocks Innovation 01:01:49 - Why Crypto Needs Regulatory Clarity 01:03:17 - From Meme Coins to Real Assets 01:04:17 - Crypto's Path to $100 Trillion? 01:05:15 - The Financial System Will Run on Blockchains 01:06:00 - Platform Layer vs Application Layer Wealth 01:06:29 - AI Raises Money and Launches Tokens 01:07:39 - AIs Creating Software and Capital Formation 01:08:00 - Final Thoughts: A Wild Future Ahead 01:08:20 - When Will Vlad Buy a CryptoPunk? 01:08:51 - Wrapping Up: AI, Crypto, and the Road Ahead
1:09:53

My dear friend, Vlad Tenev, changed the landscape of investing forever! The rise of the retail investor is largely due to Robinhood's success... and in this new Journey Man, we discuss it all... Enjoy! 00:00 - Intro 00:53 - Introducing Vlad Tenev of Robinhood 01:27 - Why Take on Wall Street? 01:54 - Robinhood’s Zero-Fee Origin Story 02:53 - Inspiration from Instagram and Uber 04:24 - Reimagining Trading for Mobile 05:05 - The Challenge of Disrupting Finance 05:42 - Why Everything Is Hard 06:34 - Early Wrong Assumptions 07:42 - Raising Capital with a Small Vision 08:48 - Funding Robinhood on AngelList 09:50 - Early Investors Changed Their Lives 10:38 - The Crypto Explosion Begins 11:07 - Considering a Bitcoin Exchange First 12:17 - Bitcoin’s Early Skepticism and Growth 13:08 - Robinhood Launches Crypto in 2018 14:03 - 2020: Crypto Revenue Surges Overnight 15:04 - The Challenge of Crypto Cyclicality 16:11 - Staffing a Volatile Business 17:10 - Building Robinhood’s Lean Crypto Team 18:46 - Robinhood’s First Crypto Event Coming 19:38 - Where TradFi Meets DeFi 20:34 - Tokenizing Everything 21:09 - Robinhood’s Vision for Crypto + Finance 21:47 - Thoughts on Crypto Options Demand 23:04 - Why Crypto Options Haven’t Taken Off 24:09 - Millennials and the Speculative Economy 25:22 - Democratizing Trading for Everyone 26:08 - Why Buy-and-Hold Doesn’t Work for All 27:15 - Trading vs Investing: A Matter of Wealth 28:01 - Trading as a Skill Anyone Can Build 29:13 - Robinhood’s Role in Onboarding Millions 30:06 - The Fed's Role and Retail Insight 31:03 - The Rise of the Retail Macro Trader 32:17 - Helping Users Succeed with Robinhood Strategies 33:35 - Power of Community and the Hive Mind 34:55 - Will AI Disrupt Community Too? 36:14 - Technological Waves and Investor Opportunity 37:10 - Human Purpose in an AI World 37:52 - Tokenizing Human Connection 38:28 - Creators, Platforms, and Future-Proofing 39:26 - Vlad’s Long-Term View of the Future 40:05 - Financial Services at the Heart of Disruption 41:14 - If AI Replaces Jobs, What Happens to Investing? 42:25 - Entering the Economic Singularity 43:31 - What Happens When AIs Win the Markets? 44:16 - AI's Role in Capital and Markets 45:07 - Will AI Eliminate Human Emotion from Markets? 46:06 - HFT: The Original AI Traders 47:20 - AI and Long-Term Probabilistic Forecasting 48:48 - GPUs, Gaming, and the Origins of AI 50:01 - Nvidia, CUDA, and Wall Street Arms Races 51:04 - Flash Boys and Microwave Trading 51:54 - Will AI Costs Go to Zero? 52:52 - Lower Cost, Higher Usage 53:41 - Robinhood’s UX Won’t Be Just a Chatbox 55:16 - Cortex: AI-Powered Features at Robinhood 56:54 - Tokenization and the Future of Asset Management 57:44 - Crowdsourced, Tokenized Hedge Funds 58:48 - Portability of Tokenized Assets 59:39 - Blockchain as the New Rails of Finance 01:00:09 - The Trump Token and Capital Formation 01:01:00 - Capital Access Unlocks Innovation 01:01:49 - Why Crypto Needs Regulatory Clarity 01:03:17 - From Meme Coins to Real Assets 01:04:17 - Crypto's Path to $100 Trillion? 01:05:15 - The Financial System Will Run on Blockchains 01:06:00 - Platform Layer vs Application Layer Wealth 01:06:29 - AI Raises Money and Launches Tokens 01:07:39 - AIs Creating Software and Capital Formation 01:08:00 - Final Thoughts: A Wild Future Ahead 01:08:20 - When Will Vlad Buy a CryptoPunk? 01:08:51 - Wrapping Up: AI, Crypto, and the Road Ahead

Raoul Pal

172,640 次观看 • 1 年前

New Journey Man episode with my dear friend Alex Gurevich—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways
1:20:22

New Journey Man episode with my dear friend Alex Gurevich—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Raoul Pal

136,948 次观看 • 1 年前

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old. Camilo Saravia (camilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital. "I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity." We cover: - Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society - Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation - Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work - His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal" - Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok - Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that - Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out - Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute - Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY" - The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth - A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture - Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution Highlights: (00:00) Intro (00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map (03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity (04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature (08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop (12:43) Where edge actually comes from (14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day (17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office (21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model (23:51) How to underwrite elite talent (25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point (30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time) (37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate (44:45) The abundance mindset (48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital" (50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet (51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets (53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could (55:49) There's a business behind everything (01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market (01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities (01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start (01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right (01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models
1:16:45

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old. Camilo Saravia (camilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital. "I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity." We cover: - Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society - Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation - Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work - His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal" - Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok - Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that - Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out - Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute - Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY" - The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth - A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture - Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution Highlights: (00:00) Intro (00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map (03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity (04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature (08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop (12:43) Where edge actually comes from (14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day (17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office (21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model (23:51) How to underwrite elite talent (25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point (30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time) (37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate (44:45) The abundance mindset (48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital" (50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet (51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets (53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could (55:49) There's a business behind everything (01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market (01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities (01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start (01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right (01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

Ethan Kho

65,887 次观看 • 2 天前

New podcast episode with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Tarek Mansour) is live. In this special episode, our host Robert Hackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include: → How prediction markets make society "smarter" → The role of regulation in fintech innovation → Why Kalshi started with crypto payments → Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance → Building consumer trust and network effects → Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on
23:02

New podcast episode with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Tarek Mansour) is live. In this special episode, our host Robert Hackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include: → How prediction markets make society "smarter" → The role of regulation in fintech innovation → Why Kalshi started with crypto payments → Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance → Building consumer trust and network effects → Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on

a16z crypto

55,170 次观看 • 8 个月前

First Principles Ep. 2 w/ Barbara Liskov Every blockchain alive today leans on replication ideas worked out in the 1980s, by a Turing Award winner who wasn’t thinking about how it might apply to money at all. Hosted by Tim Roughgarden with Ittai Abraham. 00:00 How do systems stay reliable when parts fail? 01:18 Barbara Liskov’s path from programming languages to distributed systems 05:45 Why modularity is “everything” 07:22 The replication problem: keeping data available across many machines 09:58 Viewstamped replication and the “ledger” before blockchains 16:32 Why good research starts with what you don’t understand 18:10 Leslie Lamport, Paxos, and the inevitability of ideas in the right time, in the right place 21:48 Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance: what changes when replicas can lie 19:35 How PBFT bridged theory and practical systems 22:38 Why you should never trust an individual replica 28:39 Why blockchains are state machine replication in the wild 31:27 AI, verification, and the future of computer science
35:46

First Principles Ep. 2 w/ Barbara Liskov Every blockchain alive today leans on replication ideas worked out in the 1980s, by a Turing Award winner who wasn’t thinking about how it might apply to money at all. Hosted by Tim Roughgarden with Ittai Abraham. 00:00 How do systems stay reliable when parts fail? 01:18 Barbara Liskov’s path from programming languages to distributed systems 05:45 Why modularity is “everything” 07:22 The replication problem: keeping data available across many machines 09:58 Viewstamped replication and the “ledger” before blockchains 16:32 Why good research starts with what you don’t understand 18:10 Leslie Lamport, Paxos, and the inevitability of ideas in the right time, in the right place 21:48 Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance: what changes when replicas can lie 19:35 How PBFT bridged theory and practical systems 22:38 Why you should never trust an individual replica 28:39 Why blockchains are state machine replication in the wild 31:27 AI, verification, and the future of computer science

a16z crypto

58,704 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 THE PEPTIDES BULL CASE FOR $HIMS Jonah Lupton - Founder & CIO of FirstWave Capital We discuss how peptides fit into Jonah's thesis for Hims, Jonah's $30K/year peptide regimen, the possibility of Hims x Lilly, retatrutide, and why he thinks Hims could 10x over the next 10 years 02:34 - How Jonah got into peptides 03:39 - Current Hims position 05:04 - Original Hims thesis in the teens 09:12 - FDA peptide timeline & July meeting 15:03 - Peptides are "80% of the thesis" 18:37 - Jonah's personal peptide stack 26:00 - Spending $30K a year on peptides 28:47 - Black market and WhatsApp China 30:25 - Gray market and the COA problem 31:05 - Why Hims wins on legitimacy 32:36 - Best, not first 32:54 - Frustration with Hims transparency 35:28 - Speed vs the Apple approach 37:45 - Surviving the Novo scare 42:46 - Branded vs compounded future 44:41 - Why Lilly matters more than Novo 50:18 - Valuation and the 2035 model 57:04 - Wrap up and other peptide plays Not financial, legal, or medical advice
58:38

🚨 THE PEPTIDES BULL CASE FOR $HIMS Jonah Lupton - Founder & CIO of FirstWave Capital We discuss how peptides fit into Jonah's thesis for Hims, Jonah's $30K/year peptide regimen, the possibility of Hims x Lilly, retatrutide, and why he thinks Hims could 10x over the next 10 years 02:34 - How Jonah got into peptides 03:39 - Current Hims position 05:04 - Original Hims thesis in the teens 09:12 - FDA peptide timeline & July meeting 15:03 - Peptides are "80% of the thesis" 18:37 - Jonah's personal peptide stack 26:00 - Spending $30K a year on peptides 28:47 - Black market and WhatsApp China 30:25 - Gray market and the COA problem 31:05 - Why Hims wins on legitimacy 32:36 - Best, not first 32:54 - Frustration with Hims transparency 35:28 - Speed vs the Apple approach 37:45 - Surviving the Novo scare 42:46 - Branded vs compounded future 44:41 - Why Lilly matters more than Novo 50:18 - Valuation and the 2035 model 57:04 - Wrap up and other peptide plays Not financial, legal, or medical advice

Hims House

123,933 次观看 • 4 个月前

"There are crypto bros on Discord making decisions on $10 million markets." My full conversation with the Somnia and Improbable team on how they're rebuilding prediction markets so no human can rig them. 00:00 Intro 02:59 Why they ignored don't work with friends 05:20 The person who gets you to ten can't get you to a hundred 07:06 Why chasing bronze medals beats winning 10:01 Sleeping under desks and 1600 interviews 18:50 How AI decides what is actually true 28:07 Why AI is the best teacher ever made 31:14 Why crypto was right all along 35:31 The plan to fight propaganda 43:52 Prediction markets are not gambling 49:43 Was it an invasion? Depends who you ask 52:08 Why ChatGPT can't count the Rs in raspberry
1:05:55

"There are crypto bros on Discord making decisions on $10 million markets." My full conversation with the Somnia and Improbable team on how they're rebuilding prediction markets so no human can rig them. 00:00 Intro 02:59 Why they ignored don't work with friends 05:20 The person who gets you to ten can't get you to a hundred 07:06 Why chasing bronze medals beats winning 10:01 Sleeping under desks and 1600 interviews 18:50 How AI decides what is actually true 28:07 Why AI is the best teacher ever made 31:14 Why crypto was right all along 35:31 The plan to fight propaganda 43:52 Prediction markets are not gambling 49:43 Was it an invasion? Depends who you ask 52:08 Why ChatGPT can't count the Rs in raspberry

JackGK

12,868 次观看 • 1 个月前

"Most people who need a transplant die without getting one." Nobel laureate Alvin Roth helped pioneer modern market design — the same toolkit crypto builders use to reason about rules, incentives, and allocation in onchain markets. Here’s what that thinking looks like when applied to kidneys: "You can't pay a donor for a kidney. That's a repugnant transaction... Kidneys are gifts. Their price is zero and they're very scarce therefore." "Maybe I could give a kidney to your kid and you could give a kidney to my kid. That's a kidney exchange. Now we do about a third of living donor transplants through exchange."
1:45

"Most people who need a transplant die without getting one." Nobel laureate Alvin Roth helped pioneer modern market design — the same toolkit crypto builders use to reason about rules, incentives, and allocation in onchain markets. Here’s what that thinking looks like when applied to kidneys: "You can't pay a donor for a kidney. That's a repugnant transaction... Kidneys are gifts. Their price is zero and they're very scarce therefore." "Maybe I could give a kidney to your kid and you could give a kidney to my kid. That's a kidney exchange. Now we do about a third of living donor transplants through exchange."

a16z crypto

32,502 次观看 • 1 个月前

Wisconsin's 1849 law could strip voters of their rights for using prediction markets — and Anchorage Digital ⚓️'s Rachel Anderika on who’s liable when AI agents move money on The Policy Protocol with Renato Mariotti and Ari Redbord Chapters/Timecodes: 00:00 Cold Open: Wisconsin's 1849 Voting Law 01:13 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 01:29 Ari Redbord Joins as Guest Host 02:13 CLARITY's Law Enforcement Provisions 03:05 'Burn and Reissue': Getting Funds Back to Victims 04:19 The Politics: Why the Votes Aren't There 06:26 Prediction Markets and the CFTC Battle 08:04 Wisconsin's 1849 Law and the Right to Vote 09:53 Federalism, Circuit Splits, and the Road to SCOTUS 11:10 The HFSC Scam Report and AI at Scale 14:04 Rachel Anderika of Anchorage Digital Joins 14:34 Who's Liable When an Agent Moves Money? 18:56 OCC Rulemaking, Secondary Markets, and Sanctions 20:40 'Cashless Reserves' with JPMorgan Tokenized Funds 22:53 Trash Talk: The Skinny Master Account 24:29 Person of the Week: The TradFi Endorsers of CLARITY
25:51

Wisconsin's 1849 law could strip voters of their rights for using prediction markets — and Anchorage Digital ⚓️'s Rachel Anderika on who’s liable when AI agents move money on The Policy Protocol with Renato Mariotti and Ari Redbord Chapters/Timecodes: 00:00 Cold Open: Wisconsin's 1849 Voting Law 01:13 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 01:29 Ari Redbord Joins as Guest Host 02:13 CLARITY's Law Enforcement Provisions 03:05 'Burn and Reissue': Getting Funds Back to Victims 04:19 The Politics: Why the Votes Aren't There 06:26 Prediction Markets and the CFTC Battle 08:04 Wisconsin's 1849 Law and the Right to Vote 09:53 Federalism, Circuit Splits, and the Road to SCOTUS 11:10 The HFSC Scam Report and AI at Scale 14:04 Rachel Anderika of Anchorage Digital Joins 14:34 Who's Liable When an Agent Moves Money? 18:56 OCC Rulemaking, Secondary Markets, and Sanctions 20:40 'Cashless Reserves' with JPMorgan Tokenized Funds 22:53 Trash Talk: The Skinny Master Account 24:29 Person of the Week: The TradFi Endorsers of CLARITY

CoinDesk

45,517 次观看 • 15 天前

First Principles Ep. 1 Bitcoin gets credited with inventing trustless consensus. It didn’t. The problem was named in the 1980s, and it took the research world years to even notice Satoshi had solved it. A new series hosted by Tim Roughgarden, with Ittai Abraham. 00:00 Introduction to First Principles: The Scientific Roots of Blockchain Technology 00:56 Why consensus matters for blockchains 02:30 Byzantine agreement: The old computer science problem Bitcoin made practical 04:34 Blockchains as a shared system of record: State machine replication and blockchain state 06:41 How two research worlds — distributed computing and crypto — began to converge 07:49 Proof of work vs. proof of stake 09:27 Why Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake took years 11:08 When crypto rediscovered decades of distributed systems research 12:49 Throughput, latency, and modern consensus design 14:05 DAG-based protocols and faster blockchains 15:25 Peace time vs. war time: why modern blockchains need two modes 16:47 Theory, practice, and the future of blockchain research
20:00

First Principles Ep. 1 Bitcoin gets credited with inventing trustless consensus. It didn’t. The problem was named in the 1980s, and it took the research world years to even notice Satoshi had solved it. A new series hosted by Tim Roughgarden, with Ittai Abraham. 00:00 Introduction to First Principles: The Scientific Roots of Blockchain Technology 00:56 Why consensus matters for blockchains 02:30 Byzantine agreement: The old computer science problem Bitcoin made practical 04:34 Blockchains as a shared system of record: State machine replication and blockchain state 06:41 How two research worlds — distributed computing and crypto — began to converge 07:49 Proof of work vs. proof of stake 09:27 Why Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake took years 11:08 When crypto rediscovered decades of distributed systems research 12:49 Throughput, latency, and modern consensus design 14:05 DAG-based protocols and faster blockchains 15:25 Peace time vs. war time: why modern blockchains need two modes 16:47 Theory, practice, and the future of blockchain research

a16z crypto

97,075 次观看 • 1 个月前

"It's a wonderful time to be a pragmatist building onchain." Chris Dixon, Ali Yahya, Eddy Lazzarin, and Guy Wuollet on Crypto Fund 5, where crypto is right now, and where it's heading next. 00:00 Open 01:31 Why raise Crypto Fund 5 now 02:10 The GENIUS Act and what regulatory clarity unlocks for builders 04:32 Why stablecoins are crypto's WhatsApp moment 08:54 Why the next era of crypto founders will be pragmatic, not ideological 11:49 From cypherpunk revolution to crypto's "collared shirt era" 15:02 Programmable money meets AI 21:15 Onchain capital markets for compute, energy, and credit 25:57 Why finance is the foundation, not the ceiling 28:48 AI agents as first-class economic actors 38:19 Why privacy is the only moat 41:26 Jevons paradox and the future of blockspace demand 43:20 Jolt and the zero-knowledge breakthrough 58:15 Writing the next chapter of Read Write Own Chris Dixon Eddy Lazzarin ☀️ Guy Wuollet Robert Hackett
1:00:31

"It's a wonderful time to be a pragmatist building onchain." Chris Dixon, Ali Yahya, Eddy Lazzarin, and Guy Wuollet on Crypto Fund 5, where crypto is right now, and where it's heading next. 00:00 Open 01:31 Why raise Crypto Fund 5 now 02:10 The GENIUS Act and what regulatory clarity unlocks for builders 04:32 Why stablecoins are crypto's WhatsApp moment 08:54 Why the next era of crypto founders will be pragmatic, not ideological 11:49 From cypherpunk revolution to crypto's "collared shirt era" 15:02 Programmable money meets AI 21:15 Onchain capital markets for compute, energy, and credit 25:57 Why finance is the foundation, not the ceiling 28:48 AI agents as first-class economic actors 38:19 Why privacy is the only moat 41:26 Jevons paradox and the future of blockspace demand 43:20 Jolt and the zero-knowledge breakthrough 58:15 Writing the next chapter of Read Write Own Chris Dixon Eddy Lazzarin ☀️ Guy Wuollet Robert Hackett

a16z crypto

171,826 次观看 • 3 个月前

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts
1:15:03

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

MR SHIFT 🦁

596,102 次观看 • 2 个月前