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🇺🇸🇮🇷 For the first time, both sides are actually moving. Trump is reportedly open to sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian assets in exchange for concrete nuclear steps. Iran, meanwhile, has softened how its own demands would be implemented, including offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before every...

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Mario Nawfal

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260,237 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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13 Kommentare

Profilbild von Jeremiah
Jeremiahvor 2 Tagen

Finally some real movement instead of just posturing

Profilbild von Adamer
Adamervor 2 Tagen

Iran już zdycha. Czekać cierpliwie. Potem mają kozojebcy łaskę obciągać z uśmiechem i zadowoleniem.

Profilbild von Sisi Zizi
Sisi Zizivor 2 Tagen

Midterms timing explains a lot here honestly

Profilbild von 🇺🇸Jersey Skywalker🇺🇸
🇺🇸Jersey Skywalker🇺🇸vor 2 Tagen

All Americans want this war to end, ASAP But you cannot give any credit to the MEN who started this war MAGA truly misses Obama 2015 deal 😂🫵🏼

Profilbild von leocolin22
leocolin22vor 2 Tagen

Hormuz really is the leverage nobody talks about enough

Profilbild von Psalms
Psalmsvor 2 Tagen

Not convinced yet but the incentives finally line up

Profilbild von sal🐂🀄
sal🐂🀄vor 2 Tagen

Solid breakdown, this actually makes sense strategically

Profilbild von neon wicks 📉
neon wicks 📉vor 2 Tagen

👀

Profilbild von jgitau
jgitauvor 2 Tagen

This is the first time it feels like both sides have something to lose

Profilbild von hamza builds 🔨
hamza builds 🔨vor 2 Tagen

Deal or no deal, oil prices tell the real story

Profilbild von Bitcoin Professor
Bitcoin Professorvor 2 Tagen

Iran denied this.

Profilbild von DonSimeon
DonSimeonvor 2 Tagen

What happens after midterms is the real question tho

Profilbild von tiny elena
tiny elenavor 2 Tagen

Wonder how long this window actually stays open though

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🚨 NOW: Iran is proposing they'd REOPEN the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks, only if President Trump lifts his blockade and eliminates oil sanctions Iran is talking about "reopening" Hormuz despite 40 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL reportedly surging through across just 2 days thanks to the US, which is an average of pre-war flows, for that time frame TRUMP HAS THE CARDS. Iran pretends but has nothing. 47 has maintained Iran is not ready for a deal, but says he's still open to one around the midterms Apparently, Iran thought using the elections would give them more sway over DJT, but THAT'S NOT THE CASE 🇺🇸
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🚨 NOW: Iran is proposing they'd REOPEN the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks, only if President Trump lifts his blockade and eliminates oil sanctions Iran is talking about "reopening" Hormuz despite 40 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL reportedly surging through across just 2 days thanks to the US, which is an average of pre-war flows, for that time frame TRUMP HAS THE CARDS. Iran pretends but has nothing. 47 has maintained Iran is not ready for a deal, but says he's still open to one around the midterms Apparently, Iran thought using the elections would give them more sway over DJT, but THAT'S NOT THE CASE 🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

213,356 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Something genuinely different is happening between Washington and Tehran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade and potentially releasing frozen Iranian assets. Iran is even reportedly considering setting aside its demand for transit fees through Hormuz while retaining administrative control. After months of escalation, absolutely everybody wants the diplomacy to work. But the contradiction is hard to miss. Iran is still attacking shipping. Tehran is warning that another U.S. attack could expand the war into the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. And U.S. aerial refueling tankers remain positioned at Al Udeid in Qatar. Then there's also the variable nobody in Washington fully controls: Israel. The two sides suddenly have powerful reasons to stop. They also still have all the machinery required to start again. For the first time in months, diplomacy looks real. And so does the war. Brandon Weichert
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Something genuinely different is happening between Washington and Tehran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade and potentially releasing frozen Iranian assets. Iran is even reportedly considering setting aside its demand for transit fees through Hormuz while retaining administrative control. After months of escalation, absolutely everybody wants the diplomacy to work. But the contradiction is hard to miss. Iran is still attacking shipping. Tehran is warning that another U.S. attack could expand the war into the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. And U.S. aerial refueling tankers remain positioned at Al Udeid in Qatar. Then there's also the variable nobody in Washington fully controls: Israel. The two sides suddenly have powerful reasons to stop. They also still have all the machinery required to start again. For the first time in months, diplomacy looks real. And so does the war. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

326,217 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 60-day extension of their fragile ceasefire. Under the reported proposal, Iran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. The hardest issues are being pushed down the road. Washington wants guarantees on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and assurances it won't be attacked again. The ceasefire is holding. The trust isn't.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 60-day extension of their fragile ceasefire. Under the reported proposal, Iran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. The hardest issues are being pushed down the road. Washington wants guarantees on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and assurances it won't be attacked again. The ceasefire is holding. The trust isn't.

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre

Mario Nawfal

225,668 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸 Iran reportedly just handed Pakistan 2 draft proposals The terms: open the Strait of Hormuz, but only in exchange for US compensation. And sanctions plus frozen funds get discussed before anything is signed. That's an invoice, not a peace offer. Trump is sitting in Washington this weekend ready to strike. Iran is asking to get paid first. Pakistan is flying back and forth as the middleman. And somewhere in that gap is either a deal or a war. Iran wants only its "legitimate legal rights," but trusts Washington about as far as it can throw it. The Strait stays closed until someone blinks. But who blinks first?
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🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸 Iran reportedly just handed Pakistan 2 draft proposals The terms: open the Strait of Hormuz, but only in exchange for US compensation. And sanctions plus frozen funds get discussed before anything is signed. That's an invoice, not a peace offer. Trump is sitting in Washington this weekend ready to strike. Iran is asking to get paid first. Pakistan is flying back and forth as the middleman. And somewhere in that gap is either a deal or a war. Iran wants only its "legitimate legal rights," but trusts Washington about as far as it can throw it. The Strait stays closed until someone blinks. But who blinks first?

Mario Nawfal

1,472,721 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇮🇷 Tehran’s strategy is not simply to attack the U.S. blockade, but to turn control of the Strait of Hormuz into political and economic leverage. Iran is reportedly pushing for the blockade to end, sanctions on its oil and gas exports to be lifted, frozen assets released, and a new shipping route through Iranian waters. “They have now become very firm in their demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz.” Pravin Sawhney’s bigger argument: Iran still wants diplomacy, but it is negotiating from a position of leverage while building a broader regional security framework. Pravin Sawhney
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🇮🇷 Tehran’s strategy is not simply to attack the U.S. blockade, but to turn control of the Strait of Hormuz into political and economic leverage. Iran is reportedly pushing for the blockade to end, sanctions on its oil and gas exports to be lifted, frozen assets released, and a new shipping route through Iranian waters. “They have now become very firm in their demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz.” Pravin Sawhney’s bigger argument: Iran still wants diplomacy, but it is negotiating from a position of leverage while building a broader regional security framework. Pravin Sawhney

Mario Nawfal

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Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚠️ Trump hoped reopening the Strait of Hormuz would give him an opportunity to declare victory and wind down the war with Iran, even without securing a nuclear agreement. Tehran, however, has dramatically raised the price of a deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran is demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and billions of dollars in war reparations before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Those demands have significantly narrowed the Trump administration’s room for maneuver. Tehran reportedly believes Washington is increasingly eager to find an exit from the conflict and is therefore using its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and consequently a crucial portion of global oil flows, as leverage at the negotiating table. The pressure is also growing inside the United States. Gasoline prices are hovering around $4 per gallon, while the approaching midterm elections give the Trump administration a strong political incentive to stabilize energy markets and reach an agreement with Iran. The situation leaves Washington facing an increasingly difficult calculation. Accepting Tehran’s sweeping demands would represent a major concession, while renewed military escalation risks further disruption of Hormuz and another surge in global energy prices. Iran appears to understand that pressure on the Strait directly translates into economic and political pressure on Washington, and Tehran is attempting to exploit that leverage to extract concessions it could never obtain under normal circumstances.
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NSTRIKE

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran will not give up its nuclear program. Why should it? Israel has nukes, refuses to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and faces zero consequences for either. Dimitri Lascaris says Iran might give up control of the Strait in exchange for permanent sanctions relief, unfrozen assets, and ironclad guarantees of sovereignty but civilian nuclear energy is non-negotiable. "This problem is eminently solvable. The problem is not Iran. The problem is us." Dimitri Lascaris
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Mario Nawfal

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Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's latest attack struck U.S military facilities in Kuwait and the UAE, but the timing may be more important than the attack itself. The previous U.S-Iran exchange had effectively stopped. Washington decided not to retaliate against Iran's last barrage and reports suggest Trump’s team is actively trying to avoid another major escalation before the midterms. Iran attacked again anyway. And to understand why, look at what Washington is doing behind the scenes. The U.S is intensifying its economic campaign against Tehran, reportedly instructing embassies around the world to pressure governments to cut Iranian trade, with countries, companies and individuals potentially threatened with sanctions or a loss of access to the dollar system. Meanwhile, the UAE has become an important partner in Washington's attempt to keep oil moving through Hormuz and tighten the economic screws on Iran. Then Iran hits U.S-linked military infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait. That makes these strikes look less like retaliation for something America already did and more like a warning about what comes next: If Washington turns the Gulf into the infrastructure for an economic war against Iran, Tehran may turn that same infrastructure into the battlefield. And that creates a serious problem for Trump's apparent pivot from military war to economic war. Sanctions were supposed to provide a way of squeezing Iran without another major exchange of missiles. Iran may be signalling that it doesn't intend to let America separate the two. Brandon Weichert
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's latest attack struck U.S military facilities in Kuwait and the UAE, but the timing may be more important than the attack itself. The previous U.S-Iran exchange had effectively stopped. Washington decided not to retaliate against Iran's last barrage and reports suggest Trump’s team is actively trying to avoid another major escalation before the midterms. Iran attacked again anyway. And to understand why, look at what Washington is doing behind the scenes. The U.S is intensifying its economic campaign against Tehran, reportedly instructing embassies around the world to pressure governments to cut Iranian trade, with countries, companies and individuals potentially threatened with sanctions or a loss of access to the dollar system. Meanwhile, the UAE has become an important partner in Washington's attempt to keep oil moving through Hormuz and tighten the economic screws on Iran. Then Iran hits U.S-linked military infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait. That makes these strikes look less like retaliation for something America already did and more like a warning about what comes next: If Washington turns the Gulf into the infrastructure for an economic war against Iran, Tehran may turn that same infrastructure into the battlefield. And that creates a serious problem for Trump's apparent pivot from military war to economic war. Sanctions were supposed to provide a way of squeezing Iran without another major exchange of missiles. Iran may be signalling that it doesn't intend to let America separate the two. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

340,144 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.
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Mario Nawfal

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Lord Bebo

12,162 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Mohammad Marandi: Iran is negotiating, but it is preparing for war Iran has offered Washington a path back to the previous MoU, this time with much faster implementation on both sides. Trump rejected it. But Mohammad Marandi argues that Tehran’s offer shouldn’t be mistaken for desperation. He says Iran is deliberately allowing much of the traffic currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz because Tehran doesn’t want to crash the global economy or inflict unnecessary damage on countries such as China and Pakistan. “Most of the ships that go through do go with Iranian consent.” That gives Iran something more useful than simply closing Hormuz: a pressure valve it can tighten gradually. The negotiations serve another purpose. Marandi says demonstrating that Iran remains willing to return to the MoU strengthens Beijing’s hand as China deals with Washington. Tehran can tell its partners it offered a settlement and Washington refused it. None of that makes him optimistic. The probability of renewed U.S.-Iran military conflict is now “substantial,” potentially before or after the midterms. So Tehran’s strategy appears to be running on two tracks: Keep offering Washington an exit. And keep preparing for the very real possibility that Washington doesn’t take it. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
1:09:02

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Mario Nawfal

331,289 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran peace deal may be signed, but the next phase could get ugly fast. Iran may see the deal as a win: sanctions relief, frozen assets potentially released, a huge reconstruction package, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening after Tehran shut it down during the war. That puts Trump in a brutal spot, with Washington trying to keep the deal alive, Israel furious that the war ended too early, and Lebanon still sitting there as the easiest place for the whole thing to explode again. The real danger now is a messy peace: diplomacy in public, pressure behind the scenes, and sudden bursts of fighting every time one side tests the limits. Writer: Sol
2:40

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran peace deal may be signed, but the next phase could get ugly fast. Iran may see the deal as a win: sanctions relief, frozen assets potentially released, a huge reconstruction package, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening after Tehran shut it down during the war. That puts Trump in a brutal spot, with Washington trying to keep the deal alive, Israel furious that the war ended too early, and Lebanon still sitting there as the easiest place for the whole thing to explode again. The real danger now is a messy peace: diplomacy in public, pressure behind the scenes, and sudden bursts of fighting every time one side tests the limits. Writer: Sol

Mario Nawfal

48,602 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
46:13

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

335,898 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States ends its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran wants the U.S. to lift blockade, pay compensation for months of war damage, lift economic sanctions and release Iran’s frozen assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil supplies - has become the war’s most lasting consequence.
0:34

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States ends its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran wants the U.S. to lift blockade, pay compensation for months of war damage, lift economic sanctions and release Iran’s frozen assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil supplies - has become the war’s most lasting consequence.

The Associated Press

235,839 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Is America really paying $300 billion to rebuild Iran, or is Iran simply regaining access to assets that were frozen under decades of sanctions? If the stated goal has always been to “liberate” the Iranian people, shouldn’t lifting sanctions be the first step? After a costly war, widespread destruction, and months of economic uncertainty, is this peace framework the best outcome Washington could have reached to avoid a global economic crisis? Trita Parsi joins me to break down the deal, the sanctions debate, and what it means for the future of Iran, the United States, and the region.
9:22

Is America really paying $300 billion to rebuild Iran, or is Iran simply regaining access to assets that were frozen under decades of sanctions? If the stated goal has always been to “liberate” the Iranian people, shouldn’t lifting sanctions be the first step? After a costly war, widespread destruction, and months of economic uncertainty, is this peace framework the best outcome Washington could have reached to avoid a global economic crisis? Trita Parsi joins me to break down the deal, the sanctions debate, and what it means for the future of Iran, the United States, and the region.

Ben Swann

13,453 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
51:13

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

317,382 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten