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forget prediction markets we invented Perception Markets trade mindshare momentum in real time, not binary outcomes weeks or months away public paper trading on VIBES starting to roll out today comment "vibes" below for access code via dm ↓

VIBES

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$Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.$

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

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201,911 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

Today we're excited to announce our public launch on Base 🔵, following a successful private testing phase, two security audits, and a white hat competition. At Velvet Capital, we streamline onchain portfolio management and social trading with our Intent Operating System for DeFi: - Trade any token via our smart execution engine - Access top DeFi protocols - Explore other people's portfolios We combine best-in-class trade execution with a DeFi social layer! Check it out below & keep reading to learn more about what you can do with the new app on Base

Today we're excited to announce our public launch on Base 🔵, following a successful private testing phase, two security audits, and a white hat competition. At Velvet Capital, we streamline onchain portfolio management and social trading with our Intent Operating System for DeFi: - Trade any token via our smart execution engine - Access top DeFi protocols - Explore other people's portfolios We combine best-in-class trade execution with a DeFi social layer! Check it out below & keep reading to learn more about what you can do with the new app on Base

Velvet | SocialFAI

131,235 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

🫡 Check out the latest updates in #Binance Wallet! • View real-time company news on Tokenized Securities detail page • Place Limit Order on ETH and Base with Auto-Retry • Configure a second Quick Buy preset for faster purchase • Filter Social Tracker posts by token contract address (CA) • Discover top-performing signals with the Today's Gems leaderboard • Sort Meme Rush by Market Cap or Bonding Curve Progress • Get richer Dev and Sniper on-chain insights in Meme Rush • Discover trending markets with Prediction Hot Searches • Explore prediction markets while browsing tweets with Binance Wallet Extension 👉 Try it out: 💬 Share your feedback below!

🫡 Check out the latest updates in #Binance Wallet! • View real-time company news on Tokenized Securities detail page • Place Limit Order on ETH and Base with Auto-Retry • Configure a second Quick Buy preset for faster purchase • Filter Social Tracker posts by token contract address (CA) • Discover top-performing signals with the Today's Gems leaderboard • Sort Meme Rush by Market Cap or Bonding Curve Progress • Get richer Dev and Sniper on-chain insights in Meme Rush • Discover trending markets with Prediction Hot Searches • Explore prediction markets while browsing tweets with Binance Wallet Extension 👉 Try it out: 💬 Share your feedback below!

Binance Wallet

83,549 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

Stanford student fed Claude a book with 151 trading strategies and turned $87 into $213,000 in one week His account is 0xB27 He gave him one task: -find an edge on Polymarket BTC markets Claude analyzed 550 mathematical formulas in 2 minutes and said that most of them don’t work in prediction markets and explained why what remained: → momentum on 5m/15m/1h → binary markets systematically overestimate short-term BTC volatility → there is a gap between what the market thinks and what the data shows He wrote a bot over the weekend from March 4 to today: → 3,426 trades → biggest win: $11,900 on a single position → the account is public, you can check it Profile: “I’m not a trader, I didn’t have trading education, I had a book and Claude”-he says cost of entry: one book and a few prompts The link to the book will be under the post 👇🏼 Just insert PDF files into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose this PDF If you’re interested in which 5 prompts he used to set up the bot Like, repost, comment STANFORD and I’ll send them to you in DM The main thing is to be subscribed so I can DM you

AdiiX

47,502 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten