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forget prediction markets we invented Perception Markets trade mindshare momentum in real time, not binary outcomes weeks or months away public paper trading on VIBES starting to roll out today comment "vibes" below for access code via dm ↓

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VIBES

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how to connect/set up VIBES • connect your X account at • choose your market: TRUMP or ELON • feel bullish on narrative? go long • sense the backlash coming? short it your first emotional trade in under a minute

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this is different from anything else we built perception markets → trade stories directly AI converts social signals into a live index • TRUMP narrative strength • ELON mindshare momentum trade the number itself

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prediction markets bet on future outcomes • "will trump win in 2028?" • "will tesla hit $500?" but those miss the journey VIBES trades the continuous emotional wave the feeling happening right now

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we built it, now you can use it perception markets > prediction markets real time > waiting months the future doesn't ask permission

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"I’ve signed up, I’d like to get the access code." Or a shorter version: "Vibes, for the access code."

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vibes

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Already positioned

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VIBES ths bro

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"vibes"

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Inside the mind of an ex-SIG quant trader who can't turn off the EV brain - even for his kid's school choice Andrew Courtney (Andrew Courtney) ran the International ETFs Trading Desk at Susquehanna International Group for ~15 years before leaving in 2023. He now runs Kalshionomics (Kalshinomics), a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes the Whirligig Bear, one of the sharpest prediction markets Substacks out there. "I think of everything as a bet. I kind of don't understand how you talk to normal people — they do not do that." SIG trains their junior traders with poker, spending 2hrs/day turning over cards after every hand, justifying every decision quantitatively AND qualitatively. 15 years later, Andrew views prediction markets the same way: read who's on the other side, size accordingly, fold when the whale comes back at you 10x. We cover: - Why SIG pays junior traders to play poker for 2hrs/day — & what happens after every single hand - The "one eye on the market, always" attention tax that destroys most people's careers - How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? - Why meme-heavy, overhyped markets (Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl) might be the juiciest trades - The insider trading debate in prediction markets — & why it's "socially corrosive" - Floor trading vs. upstairs quant: why the transition saved his career - 40 connections after ~15 years at one of the world's best firms — the hidden cost of prop trading - Why he doesn't have collision insurance on his car (& the EV math behind it) Thank you so much Andrew Courtney for coming on the pod! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:00 Floor trading vs. electronic trading 06:28 What makes an upstairs trader 10:16 Poker as trader training 13:00 Thinking in bets as a mental framework 15:11 Decision trees in real life 16:40 Where prediction markets actually have edge 19:00 Why the LLM forecasting layer falls short 19:40 Liquidity incentives and trading low-volume markets 22:00 Limiting downside even when the model is wrong 24:32 Executing in illiquid markets 25:44 Fair value vs. directional conviction 27:11 Bayesian updating when liquidity responds 28:40 Fading hype and crowded narratives 31:07 Longshot bias vs. fanbase bias 34:20 How to judge whether you really have edge 36:40 Building analytics tools for prediction markets 38:20 The temporary edge for smart amateurs 40:35 Where prediction markets fit best 41:20 Markets that shouldn’t exist 43:20 Why insider trading corrodes incentives 46:52 Are prediction markets a net good or bad 50:47 Minimizing degeneracy and maximizing signal 53:32 A simple EV mindset anyone can use

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28wishes sells ice cream in LA. When temps drop below 70°, sales drop about 20%. So they hedge on Kalshi weather markets to offset the loss. Navore Market uses weather markets to reduce the financial impact of heat waves in San Diego for its partner farms. When a tornado hit his town, Scott Owens’ hobby trading weather markets paid for the repairs to his damaged roof. Paul Sieczka is a meteorologist who turned weather forecasting into a profitable trading system. And Rachel, like ~70% of Kalshi users, doesn't trade at all. She just checks the markets to see what the weather is likely to be. Giving people markets on the things they care about requires scale. That's why we've gone from ~1,000 weather markets to more than 30,000. So we partnered with The Weather Company to settle Kalshi weather markets. With institutional-grade observation data from verified weather stations and rigorous, round-the-clock monitoring, Kalshi resolutions will be consistent, objective, and validated at the scale our users demand. Over time, The Weather Company will also bring Kalshi's real-time probability data into select experiences on The Weather Channel app and giving people a new way to see how markets are pricing weather risk. This is what the next generation of financial markets looks like: markets people actually use, specific enough to matter to them, built on reliable infrastructure.

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Mario Gabriele 🦊

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Congress expands its prediction market insider trading probe to Hyperliquid, Crypto[.]com and others "House Oversight Chair James Comer sent new letters to Crypto[.]com, Hyperliquid, and Aristotle Exchange, as they were already investigating Kalshi and Polymarket. That investigation began in May. The committee's already received nearly 1,000 documents and participated in five briefings with all of these companies." "This matters because they're trying to determine how much insider trading there is in prediction markets. And we know that there's a lot. All jokes aside, it's very easy to game certain prediction markets, and that's likely a problem." "We saw Trump's teleprompter guy, and the army officer who bet on the invasion of Venezuela. Obviously, you should not be able to bet on something that you have insider information on. They really want to know whether traders here are forecasting events, or whether they already know what happened." "All of the controversy around prediction markets is going to take a very long time to shake out. But this investigation is continuing, and it is expanding."

The Wolf Of All Streets

24,606 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

Hyperliquid and Polymarket dominate in the West. In Asia, there is no equivalent. TurboFlow is building it. Tony (TurboFlow) joins Stateful, hosted by Mason Nystrom. In this episode, they discuss why Asia has been missing a world-class trading platform and how TurboFlow is building it: - Asian traders operate in communities, not alone. That changes everything about product design. - Prediction markets beat perps for retail: click yes or no on anything. No margin knowledge needed. - $9 trillion in perps volume in 2025. Still only 75K to 200K daily active traders on-chain. - Bear markets are for building. Competitors go to sleep. You lay the foundation. - 18-month goal: dominate Asian prediction markets and expand to 50 assets including RWAs and FX. 00:00 Why Asia Has No Hyperliquid or Polymarket 01:56 The Perps Market Today: $9 Trillion, Only 200K Daily Traders 06:07 Why Prediction Markets Beat Perps for Retail 11:18 What Actually Matters When Building a Trading Platform 14:45 Lessons from Co-Founding Amber Group 18:46 Quick Fire: Bear Market Timing, 18-Month Roadmap
22:24

Hyperliquid and Polymarket dominate in the West. In Asia, there is no equivalent. TurboFlow is building it. Tony (TurboFlow) joins Stateful, hosted by Mason Nystrom. In this episode, they discuss why Asia has been missing a world-class trading platform and how TurboFlow is building it: - Asian traders operate in communities, not alone. That changes everything about product design. - Prediction markets beat perps for retail: click yes or no on anything. No margin knowledge needed. - $9 trillion in perps volume in 2025. Still only 75K to 200K daily active traders on-chain. - Bear markets are for building. Competitors go to sleep. You lay the foundation. - 18-month goal: dominate Asian prediction markets and expand to 50 assets including RWAs and FX. 00:00 Why Asia Has No Hyperliquid or Polymarket 01:56 The Perps Market Today: $9 Trillion, Only 200K Daily Traders 06:07 Why Prediction Markets Beat Perps for Retail 11:18 What Actually Matters When Building a Trading Platform 14:45 Lessons from Co-Founding Amber Group 18:46 Quick Fire: Bear Market Timing, 18-Month Roadmap

Pantera Capital

38,474 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto
0:49

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto

Launch with Seed | $SEED

19,303 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

some time ago i built a news website for my dad called it the alshi time it ended up getting hundreds of visitors so i decided to turn it into my first public ios app TheOddsNews its not a trading app no overwhelming wall of markets its news for boomers like my dad, with more context it brings stories from different sources together and matches them with relevant Kalshi markets a reality check alongside the headlines headlines + odds, in one place out on iOS today
0:33

some time ago i built a news website for my dad called it the alshi time it ended up getting hundreds of visitors so i decided to turn it into my first public ios app TheOddsNews its not a trading app no overwhelming wall of markets its news for boomers like my dad, with more context it brings stories from different sources together and matches them with relevant Kalshi markets a reality check alongside the headlines headlines + odds, in one place out on iOS today

0xfreddy (executor arc) 🌸

12,325 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.
0:29

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

174,137 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten