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Fresh Wallet Printed $140,905 in a Week Using the "Frank-Wolfe" Mathematical Formula Yesterday I shared a few strategies whales are using right now to stack daily gains. Here’s a clean example of how the “Frank-Wolfe” system works: > Joined January 22 > $185,163 total profit > trading only crypto...

20,857 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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A study proved that $40 million was extracted from Polymarket in one year using a single mathematical formula I found a wallet that is using it right now on Iran war markets and made $1.4M in one week. Most people on Polymarket try to predict the future. Will there be a war. Who will win the election. What will happen next. I spent months doing the same thing. Reading news. Watching debates. Building my little models of what I thought should happen. And losing money. Not because I was wrong about events. Because I was wrong about the game itself. The game is not about predictions. And the wallet I'm about to show you is living proof. Three weeks ago I pulled the full trade history of this wallet: What I saw at first didn't make sense. He was opening the same market more than 30 times. US strikes Iran by January 11. US strikes Iran by January 12. January 13. January 14. January 15. January 16. January 17. The same event. Different dates. Over and over. First thought: this person is obsessed with Iran. Second thought: this person doesn't care about Iran at all. Here's what he's actually doing. Polymarket creates separate markets for the same event with different deadlines. Will the US strike Iran by March. By April. By June. These are not independent questions. If the strike happens in March then April and June automatically resolve to YES as well. But Polymarket prices each market separately. And the crowd prices them emotionally. Fear spikes on Tuesday night because someone tweeted something. One market jumps. The others lag behind. For a few minutes and sometimes hours prices on related markets stop converging. When you buy NO across multiple dates and the total cost is 94 cents and the guaranteed payout is $1 regardless of what happens you're not betting. You're collecting a 6% return on mathematical inevitability. That's the entire strategy. He buys dollars for 94 cents. I checked his numbers. On the Iran series alone he pulled $247,000 in realized profit across seven markets with different dates. Average purchase price of NO positions from 72 to 95 cents. Each one resolved at $1. The biggest hit was the government shutdown market. $88,000 in profit. Same logic. Buy both sides when the total cost is less than a dollar. One side pays. Math does the rest. 85% of his capital is in political markets. Wars. Elections. Geopolitics. Not because he has strong geopolitical convictions. Because political markets on Polymarket are where the math breaks most often. Why political markets specifically? Because they generate the most emotion. When CNN runs breaking news about Iran at 11 PM thousands of people rush to buy YES on the nearest date. They overbid the price. They panic. They push one market out of line with the rest. That panic is his paycheck. And now the part that actually matters. I dug deeper into how this type of arbitrage works at scale and found a study that made everything click. A team analyzed every trade on Polymarket over 12 months. They found 17,218 market conditions. 41% of them had an exploitable pricing error. And the total profit extracted by arbitrageurs was $40 million. The top single wallet made $2 million using one algorithm. The Frank-Wolfe method. I'll explain without math because the concept is simple even if the calculations aren't. Imagine you walk into a store that sells lottery tickets for 7 different drawings. Each ticket is priced separately. The store doesn't coordinate prices between drawings. You notice that if you buy a certain combination of tickets across all 7 drawings the total cost is $94 but you're guaranteed to win exactly $100 no matter which drawing hits. You don't need to predict which drawing will win. You just need to notice that the store mispriced the tickets. Here's Frank-Wolfe in one sentence. It scans thousands of related markets simultaneously and finds combinations where the total price is less than the guaranteed payout. Then it calculates the exact amounts to buy on each side to maximize the spread. The reason a human can't do this manually is scale. There are hundreds of active markets on Polymarket. Many are connected by logic. If event A happens then event B must also happen. If candidate X wins state Y then the national result shifts. The number of possible combinations grows exponentially. While you're checking 10 markets by hand the algorithm has scanned 17,000. What anoin123 does is a manual version of this. He picks one cluster of related markets like the Iran date series and runs the logic in his head. Buy NO across seven dates. Total cost less than a dollar. Wait. Collect. The automated version does the same thing but across all markets on the platform simultaneously. My personal takeaway after three weeks of studying this. I spent months trying to be smarter than the crowd. Reading polls. Watching news. Forming opinions. And the whole time there was a category of traders who had zero opinions about anything. They just waited for the crowd to misprice related markets and collected the difference. The uncomfortable realization is that prediction markets are not actually about predictions for those who make the most money. They're about math. And the math breaks every day because people trade on emotions and the platform prices markets independently of each other. I don't have the infrastructure to run Frank-Wolfe at scale. But I don't need to. Wallets like anoin123 do this in plain sight. Every trade on the blockchain. Every entry price. Every exit. Every timestamp. I stopped trying to predict events. I started watching wallets that make money regardless of what happens. The difference in my results is so stark it's uncomfortable to think about. If you want to understand the full math behind this the study is publicly available. Search for Arbitrage in Prediction Markets on arXiv. But the short version is this. Every time the crowd panics about a war or an election and pushes one market out of line with its related markets someone on the other side quietly buys dollars for 94 cents. The question is not whether they'll strike Iran. The question is whether you noticed that seven markets about the same event are priced as if they have nothing to do with each other. That gap is where the money lives.

Blaze

31,373 次观看 • 4 个月前