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Fresh Wallet Printed $140,905 in a Week Using the "Frank-Wolfe" Mathematical Formula Yesterday I shared a few strategies whales are using right now to stack daily gains. Here’s a clean example of how the “Frank-Wolfe” system works: > Joined January 22 > $185,163 total profit > trading only crypto...

20,874 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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A study proved that $40 million was extracted from Polymarket in one year using a single mathematical formula I found a wallet that is using it right now on Iran war markets and made $1.4M in one week. Most people on Polymarket try to predict the future. Will there be a war. Who will win the election. What will happen next. I spent months doing the same thing. Reading news. Watching debates. Building my little models of what I thought should happen. And losing money. Not because I was wrong about events. Because I was wrong about the game itself. The game is not about predictions. And the wallet I'm about to show you is living proof. Three weeks ago I pulled the full trade history of this wallet: What I saw at first didn't make sense. He was opening the same market more than 30 times. US strikes Iran by January 11. US strikes Iran by January 12. January 13. January 14. January 15. January 16. January 17. The same event. Different dates. Over and over. First thought: this person is obsessed with Iran. Second thought: this person doesn't care about Iran at all. Here's what he's actually doing. Polymarket creates separate markets for the same event with different deadlines. Will the US strike Iran by March. By April. By June. These are not independent questions. If the strike happens in March then April and June automatically resolve to YES as well. But Polymarket prices each market separately. And the crowd prices them emotionally. Fear spikes on Tuesday night because someone tweeted something. One market jumps. The others lag behind. For a few minutes and sometimes hours prices on related markets stop converging. When you buy NO across multiple dates and the total cost is 94 cents and the guaranteed payout is $1 regardless of what happens you're not betting. You're collecting a 6% return on mathematical inevitability. That's the entire strategy. He buys dollars for 94 cents. I checked his numbers. On the Iran series alone he pulled $247,000 in realized profit across seven markets with different dates. Average purchase price of NO positions from 72 to 95 cents. Each one resolved at $1. The biggest hit was the government shutdown market. $88,000 in profit. Same logic. Buy both sides when the total cost is less than a dollar. One side pays. Math does the rest. 85% of his capital is in political markets. Wars. Elections. Geopolitics. Not because he has strong geopolitical convictions. Because political markets on Polymarket are where the math breaks most often. Why political markets specifically? Because they generate the most emotion. When CNN runs breaking news about Iran at 11 PM thousands of people rush to buy YES on the nearest date. They overbid the price. They panic. They push one market out of line with the rest. That panic is his paycheck. And now the part that actually matters. I dug deeper into how this type of arbitrage works at scale and found a study that made everything click. A team analyzed every trade on Polymarket over 12 months. They found 17,218 market conditions. 41% of them had an exploitable pricing error. And the total profit extracted by arbitrageurs was $40 million. The top single wallet made $2 million using one algorithm. The Frank-Wolfe method. I'll explain without math because the concept is simple even if the calculations aren't. Imagine you walk into a store that sells lottery tickets for 7 different drawings. Each ticket is priced separately. The store doesn't coordinate prices between drawings. You notice that if you buy a certain combination of tickets across all 7 drawings the total cost is $94 but you're guaranteed to win exactly $100 no matter which drawing hits. You don't need to predict which drawing will win. You just need to notice that the store mispriced the tickets. Here's Frank-Wolfe in one sentence. It scans thousands of related markets simultaneously and finds combinations where the total price is less than the guaranteed payout. Then it calculates the exact amounts to buy on each side to maximize the spread. The reason a human can't do this manually is scale. There are hundreds of active markets on Polymarket. Many are connected by logic. If event A happens then event B must also happen. If candidate X wins state Y then the national result shifts. The number of possible combinations grows exponentially. While you're checking 10 markets by hand the algorithm has scanned 17,000. What anoin123 does is a manual version of this. He picks one cluster of related markets like the Iran date series and runs the logic in his head. Buy NO across seven dates. Total cost less than a dollar. Wait. Collect. The automated version does the same thing but across all markets on the platform simultaneously. My personal takeaway after three weeks of studying this. I spent months trying to be smarter than the crowd. Reading polls. Watching news. Forming opinions. And the whole time there was a category of traders who had zero opinions about anything. They just waited for the crowd to misprice related markets and collected the difference. The uncomfortable realization is that prediction markets are not actually about predictions for those who make the most money. They're about math. And the math breaks every day because people trade on emotions and the platform prices markets independently of each other. I don't have the infrastructure to run Frank-Wolfe at scale. But I don't need to. Wallets like anoin123 do this in plain sight. Every trade on the blockchain. Every entry price. Every exit. Every timestamp. I stopped trying to predict events. I started watching wallets that make money regardless of what happens. The difference in my results is so stark it's uncomfortable to think about. If you want to understand the full math behind this the study is publicly available. Search for Arbitrage in Prediction Markets on arXiv. But the short version is this. Every time the crowd panics about a war or an election and pushes one market out of line with its related markets someone on the other side quietly buys dollars for 94 cents. The question is not whether they'll strike Iran. The question is whether you noticed that seven markets about the same event are priced as if they have nothing to do with each other. That gap is where the money lives.

Blaze

31,373 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

This GitHub script makes $500K a week. Someone found a legal API loophole worth $3.7M. According to his profile: I studied legendary swisstony wallet and I was blown away. The bot really started with some measly $5 and now his profit has hit the $3.7 million mark in just six months. Just picture him making $90K pure cash and everyone getting into a debate about the next prediction on the chat. There is no trading in the normal sense. This is systematic clearing with code. I went back into his working head and heres what the bot does with liquidity: First it works like a vacuum cleaner for'free'money. The bot searches for outcomes with a 99% improbability of occurrence and allocates significant sums to the 'NO' category at 99 cents. For him this is a guaranteed 1 and he does it hundreds of times. This isn't a casino this is an insurance company that takes your premiums but never pays claims. 2nd the bot catches misstake in the system itself. If A must cause B and the quotes did differ the script is immediately in the trade. And while you are still reading the headline on Sports the bot has already identified the mismatch in the order book and secured its gain. No way a human can keep up with it. However, the true excitement exists within the domains of sports and politics. The bot intentionally enters these markets. Why? Since that is where the biggest crowd of hamsters place bets for fun and the info about the matches always gets to the masses with the delay The script just sits in the middle and takes one cent of spread from each trade. Monthly, this equates to 22,000 such micro-bites, which accumulate into millions. Here's the bottom line. Right now there is the real bot war at Polymarket. The platform has already commenced applying charges on crypto markets as a measure to decelerate their pace. But in sports is still chaos and easy money.

Blaze

217,511 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

717,459 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Polymarket added fees so most arbitrage bots died. Devs who spent months building strategies watched their edge disappear in one update. But a small group figured out how to stay profitable anyway. This wallet is making $27,000 every single day right now. $743,000 in 35 days. 31,566 predictions. Fully automated. And it is running the exact same strategy i broke down in my previous article. His wallet: < Here is exactly how it works and why fees didn't kill it: The bot trades crypto Up/Down markets across BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP simultaneously. Not randomly. With surgical precision on timing and entry price. Look at the realized moves: Bitcoin position turned $2,300 into $8,260. XRP position turned $10,105 into $22,100. Ethereum position turned $1,347 into $10,950. Those are not lucky trades. That is a system firing correctly at scale. The reason fees didn't destroy this bot is the same reason i explained before. Pure speed arbitrage bots died because their edge was margin - and fees ate the margin completely. This bot doesn't rely on tiny spread captures. It combines pair-sum arbitrage with precise entry timing to find windows where combined price is cheap enough that fees still leave meaningful profit on the table. The math only works at specific entry prices and specific timing windows. Most bots can't find those windows fast enough. This one can because the infrastructure is fast enough to compete. $27,000 per day from a strategy that survived the fee update while everyone else shut down. That is not luck. That is being technically ahead of the competition. The gap between bots that died and bots that kept printing was never the strategy. It was execution quality and infrastructure speed.

Punisher

34,167 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

This guy is making +1% on EVERY TRADE Sounds small, I know. But he already made $50k profit (started with $200 only) How? He repeats this +1% trade 30 times per day. Almost zero risk. And I found a way to make 100x more trading same markets. This is either genius or it should be illegal. But this trader has been quietly running the cleanest strategy on Polymarket for months. Just one repeatable process: > Find markets where the outcome is already decided > Buy shares at 95-99¢ > Collect the gap to $1.00 at resolution > Wake up tomorrow and do it again His PnL curve looks like a savings account that somehow prints 33% daily. Wallet: 5% per trade sounds boring until you run the parlay math. Here's exactly what changes with PolyParlay: Standard bond trading on $1,000: > 4 markets at 96¢ traded separately > +4% collected four times > Total: $1,060 (you made $60, congrats) Same $1,000 combined into one parlay: > 0.96 × 0.96 × 0.96 × 0.96 = boosted PnL > 1.27x payout multiplier > Total: $1,270 in one single position Now add 2 mispriced entries at 70-80¢ into that same parlay: > Payout multiplier jumps to 3-10x > Same $1,000 becomes $3,000-$10,000 after all hit That's the gap between grinding $160 daily and waking up to $3,000+ on the same capital. Bond markets eliminate the risk. Parlay structure eliminates the ceiling. Both together is what $50k months actually look like. Parlay bot link: This is the only bot for Polymarket parlay trading. Zero stress. Daily yield. Exponential upside.

Oracle Boar

13,926 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten