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GRAF now goes out through 1pm Monday, so here is its initial solution for the upcoming system. A lot of mixing at first around DC, when it goes over to snow in DC it's probably "white rain" for a little bit prior to rates overcoming ground warmth for accumulation...

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Mike Thomas

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126,722 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!
0:15

Early GRAF projections out far enough to capture the Sunday system. Starts as a bit of mix Saturday night then goes over to snow. It develops a nice band across DC and along the I-95 corridor in Maryland, putting down 1-3"+ by Sunday morning. Razors edge though! Pretty thin band!

Mike Thomas

78,885 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Hot off the presses, brand new high-resolution GRAF fresh into the weather center. Trying to pick up on some of the colder temperatures tonight around the region. Gets the first flakes into DC between 3-4am, with the worst of snow/mix around the Beltway between 4-7am before a change over to all rain. Northwest holds onto snow/mix into the 9-10am window for the most part. Model did go up with totals a bit! Check tweet below! (1/2)
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Hot off the presses, brand new high-resolution GRAF fresh into the weather center. Trying to pick up on some of the colder temperatures tonight around the region. Gets the first flakes into DC between 3-4am, with the worst of snow/mix around the Beltway between 4-7am before a change over to all rain. Northwest holds onto snow/mix into the 9-10am window for the most part. Model did go up with totals a bit! Check tweet below! (1/2)

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Really quick severe weather risk thread...⛈️ Still officially under a marginal risk for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, including a 2% tornado risk. Latest GRAF run shown below. Around the DC area though, I think storms are probably going to struggle a bit....
0:16

Really quick severe weather risk thread...⛈️ Still officially under a marginal risk for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, including a 2% tornado risk. Latest GRAF run shown below. Around the DC area though, I think storms are probably going to struggle a bit....

Mike Thomas

18,536 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!
0:12

Sorry for the delay! Here is the new 0z EURO model. Still a good "thumping" snow for most in the morning, with the sleet/freezing rain line fighting during the afternoon of Sunday. I'll put totals out from this run right below this. Heaviest northwest, less southeast!

Mike Thomas

505,976 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Changed it over to the high-resolution (3km) GRAF simulations for the remainder of the night here. Here is how much more snow the model os showing for the remainder of the night (through 6am Monday). Based on ground reports certainly seems like those outside the banding are coming in on the lower end. So far 0.56" of liquid reported at DCA today, that would have been 5.6" of snow under ideal conditions today had this been all snow!
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Changed it over to the high-resolution (3km) GRAF simulations for the remainder of the night here. Here is how much more snow the model os showing for the remainder of the night (through 6am Monday). Based on ground reports certainly seems like those outside the banding are coming in on the lower end. So far 0.56" of liquid reported at DCA today, that would have been 5.6" of snow under ideal conditions today had this been all snow!

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Alright I've never seen this model handle a storm of this size, so not sure how well it will do...but for any who want an idea here is what the "Fox Model" is showing though 1pm Sunday (as far out as it goes). It does give you an idea of the scale of this system. Big time storm.
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