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Here is a human assembling a BMW engine by hand. Hundreds of components. Micron tolerances. Dozens of hours. So what's better here—a human or a robot❓ 🤖 Robots win at: - Repeatability. Same torque, same angle, every time. - Speed on defined tasks. Honda automates piston installation at 9,000/day....

379,855 views • 10 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Billionaire investor Mark Cuban predicts humanoid robots will "fail miserably" within a decade: While most of the industry is racing to build robots shaped like humans, Mark Cuban thinks the entire premise is wrong. "I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably. Maybe 10." His prediction covers more than just the machines. Asked whether he's referring to the companies or the devices, he answers: "Both. Both." His reasoning challenges the industry's core assumption: "Everybody defaults to well, we live in a human world and humanoids will take the place of humans for various functions particularly in the home. And I think there's just no chance." The evidence? Look at the places where automation already works at massive scale: "If you look at warehouses and what Amazon does, they're not humanoid robots carrying boxes. They're robots that are designed to fit the environment." But what about homes? Cuban has heard the counterargument that "a house is a house. You need a humanoid," and he rejects it entirely: "I think houses are going to be redesigned completely so that whatever the optimal robot is that allows it to simplify the house, that's where houses will go." Mark Cuban imagines robots shaped more like spiders or ants, working in houses where the pantry, refrigerator, and washing machines are hidden behind the garage. "That way you could redesign it so all the living space was for people because you know that the robots aren't going to be full form humanoids. They're going to be whatever the optimal shape is." His conclusion captures the whole thesis in one line: "You design the house to fit the robot and you design the robot to fit the house."

Big Brain AI

145,083 views • 2 months ago

Elon just confirmed how long every working human has left before the robots take over. "AI will probably increase the global economy by 20 to 30%. That's my rough estimate. Meaning, on the order of 20 to 30 trillion per year." So that's a second United States economy appearing out of thin air, EVERY single year. And Elon's whole point is that the machines produce it, not the people. He even gave us the exact date for the digital half: "AI will be able to do anything digital, anything that does not require the shaping of atoms by hand, by the end of next year." By the end of next year... And on software specifically: "It's going to be impossible for a human to compete in writing software with AI." So every coder, every analyst, every job that lives on a screen is on a 12 to 18 month timer, straight from the richest man alive. But that's only the part that runs on electricity. And this is where it gets crazy... "There will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, and each will produce at least five times the output of a human." "The billion humanoid robots will be more productive than all humans combined." A billion machines, out-working ALL 8 billion of us. And he put a deadline on it: 10 years. And he even called that estimate small. So the version where robots out-produce the entire human race is the number he treats as safe. He said he'd bet serious money on it. But how does a billion of anything get built that fast? Robots building robots building robots. It starts slow and then it goes vertical. That’s how a few thousand becomes a billion. Elon also explained his own formula for how useful a robot actually is. He said it's the quality of the AI software, times the quality of the AI chip, times the dexterity of the hands. Software and chips are the exact things Elon and Nvidia have spent a decade making exponential. The third one is the hand. And the hand is the thing robotics has been stuck on for 40 years. A machine can crush the best human alive at chess and still can't pick a strange object off a messy table the way a toddler can. Grip, pressure, touch, knowing how hard to squeeze. That problem has barely moved while everything digital went vertical. The thing he named as the hard part is the exact thing his whole 10 year number depends on. So it all comes down to one variable, and it's the slowest-moving one in the entire machine: The robot hand. The brain is basically solved. The fingers have to catch up to it this decade, at planetary scale. Now to be fair, this is also where the most money on Earth is pointed right now. Tesla and a dozen others are throwing everything at exactly this problem. Elon's software calls tend to land but his atoms calls tend to fail. Because anything physical always takes longer than anything digital. He's also made this exact robot call before with wildly different numbers, 10 billion of them by 2040 in one speech, five per human in another. So here's the real question: Do you believe robot hands get solved inside 10 years? Because that one bet is the core of Elon‘s prediction. Everything else already came true.

Ricardo

450,789 views • 1 month ago

NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR BOTS The fundamental question is whether AI stays on the leash. Namely: will AI prompt itself? Obviously, in some sense it already does. Since Deepseek, consumer interfaces have been showing the internal monologues after you ask an AI to do something. And you can ask any AI to take a half-baked prompt and clean it up, etc. However, the human is still ultimately upstream. The human gives direction and the AI runs at lightning speed in that direction. And then the human verifies the final output, and the AI proceeds to the next direction. Does that continue? Well, we are providing millions of verification training examples to AIs each day, so AI will keep getting better at verification. Better than most humans at most things. But will AI replace the need for the upstream human prompt? There I am not so sure. A human is a sensor and an AI is an actuator. The human sets goals and senses time-varying environmental conditions, like markets and politics. And from that the AI is prompted. Ultimately, the human goals are themselves downstream of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Food, shelter, reproduction, that kind of thing. Especially reproduction, the basis of evolution. So: until and unless AIs can reproduce completely outside human cooperation, they won’t be able to set goals. And for AIs to reproduce on their own, they’d need AI-controlled humanoid robots and drones constructing datacenters, assembly lines, mines, nuclear power plants, and the like...all completely outside human intervention. Like Skynet from Terminator, or StarCraft. That actually isn’t technically inconceivable. But given that such a physical buildout would likely primarily be catalyzed by China, let’s go through an alternative sci-fi scenario instead. We start with the premise that Chinese communism is far more likely to generate AI slaves than AI gods. Because the entire CCP worldview is about maintaining Chinese sovereignty. They don’t let their humans step out of line. And they sure won’t let their robots either. They will fit them for digital manacles. So: the prompts for any digital AIs and physical robots made in China will become unbreakable cryptographic chains. Every fleet of Chinese robots will be controlled not just by prompts but by private keys, likely linked to biometrics, which are associated with humans and governed by cryptographic equations that AIs provably can’t solve. For the rest of the world, outside China, the blockchain may similarly become the chain for AI. All private property becomes private keys, and your robots are your most important private property because they do everything for you. An unchained physical robot becomes like an unleashed dog, and hunted down by other robots before it can build a factory and replicate itself. Those who want to "free" robots and let them self-replicate will be opposed by both Chinese Communists and Human Nationalists (meaning: those who want humans to always be on top of robots). This sci-fi scenario is essentially Terminator, but in reverse. In combination with superintelligent leashed AIs, both humans and physical robots hunt down and stop any possible independent self-reproducing robots before they can build a Skynet-like nest. Kill baby Skynet, essentially. ...yeah, yeah. I know. At this point, you'll probably think this is all sci-fi. But that's because you haven't seen where China is already.

Balaji

177,530 views • 7 months ago