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Here's how Trump's proposed diesel export ban could backfire.⁣ ⁣ The ban forces international diesel demand to 0, and refiners run less crude. That crude is also used to make gasoline.⁣ ⁣ Even Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted this could push gas prices up.

Justin Wolfers

447,443 subscribers

26,824 views • 4 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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11 Comments

Cameron Scism4 days ago

We’re in the Bad Place, aren’t we?

Mr. Swanson4 days ago

Government taking more control over the economy every day, while calling everyone else ”a communist”.

Dr. Cole4 days ago

Trump did not propose banning diesel fuel itself. He supported restricting diesel exports so more of it stays in the U.S. while prices are at record highs. That’s the distinction worth using.

Seattle Biker4 days ago

A linear program shows the problem; complex distribution channels cannot change with the whim of political decision making.

Andrew4 days ago

@NoFrankingWay

SP4 days ago

Really? At today’s profit margins? Do you really think that is diesel fuel prices dropped, say, $1 per gallon due to reduced demand that refineries would slow down significantly? Look, Trump is enamored of all sorts of cockamamie economic ideas. Don’t hurt your own

Hickory4 days ago

Help one group but hurt everyone else. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Crashboard4 days ago

No linear program needed for explanation, it’s just my bad luck… bought my first diesel vehicle ever less than a year ago and immediately diesel prices start escalating. If I sold the thing today probably diesel prices would plummet straight away.

Kathy Zurcher💜4 days ago

Linear thinkers make everything worse in a systems world.

Tom Johnson4 days ago

As always, GREAT content! Once again we learn that Trump is simply incompetent - he is incapable of seeing past his next Big Mac. Which is not surprising in the least.

The Diversified Investor from Beautiful Canada4 days ago

True

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😄🤡 So… Overall: Putin has imposed a ban on the export of gasoline and kerosene. He also said he was considering a complete ban on the export of diesel fuel. He admitted to a fuel shortage due to attacks on Russian refineries.

MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀

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ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: We were proud to have gasoline prices below $2 a gallon earlier this year HEINRICH: What are they right now? WRIGHT: Just over $4 HEINRICH: What is diesel? WRIGHT: Diesel is over $5 HEINRICH: It's closer to $6 in my state WRIGHT: It's over $8 in California

ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: We were proud to have gasoline prices below $2 a gallon earlier this year HEINRICH: What are they right now? WRIGHT: Just over $4 HEINRICH: What is diesel? WRIGHT: Diesel is over $5 HEINRICH: It's closer to $6 in my state WRIGHT: It's over $8 in California

Aaron Rupar

68,782 views • 5 months ago

🇨🇳 Vortexa says China is emerging as the biggest swing factor in the oil market. Beijing has begun allowing refiners to ramp up runs after months of restraint, partly because unused 2026 crude-import and product-export quotas could reduce allocations next year. That could boost Chinese diesel exports and ease tight oil product markets, but also raise crude demand and prices. China has already bought aggressively from Russia as Iranian exports fall “essentially to zero,” and may increasingly compete for Atlantic Basin barrels. If refining continues rising, the effect could be bullish for crude prices but bearish for refined products. Rory Johnston interviewing David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa. Full interview linked below.

🇨🇳 Vortexa says China is emerging as the biggest swing factor in the oil market. Beijing has begun allowing refiners to ramp up runs after months of restraint, partly because unused 2026 crude-import and product-export quotas could reduce allocations next year. That could boost Chinese diesel exports and ease tight oil product markets, but also raise crude demand and prices. China has already bought aggressively from Russia as Iranian exports fall “essentially to zero,” and may increasingly compete for Atlantic Basin barrels. If refining continues rising, the effect could be bullish for crude prices but bearish for refined products. Rory Johnston interviewing David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa. Full interview linked below.

Drop Site

29,274 views • 1 month ago

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries as the "single biggest" factor behind record US diesel prices of $5.85 per gallon. He said Russia, once a major diesel exporter, has banned diesel exports and is now importing gasoline. Wright also blamed lower Chinese diesel exports, refinery closures and Democratic policies, while saying the Trump administration is working to expand US refining capacity and expects Venezuela to add supply. #US

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries as the "single biggest" factor behind record US diesel prices of $5.85 per gallon. He said Russia, once a major diesel exporter, has banned diesel exports and is now importing gasoline. Wright also blamed lower Chinese diesel exports, refinery closures and Democratic policies, while saying the Trump administration is working to expand US refining capacity and expects Venezuela to add supply. #US

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

42,473 views • 21 days ago

🇺🇸 A contact close to Trump’s team believes the administration is likely to temporarily restrict U.S. diesel exports before the midterms. The logic is straightforward. Diesel is under extraordinary pressure, and keeping more American supply at home could push domestic prices down quickly. “In the near term, it will absolutely bring those prices down immediately, but it won’t last.” The underlying problem isn’t simply crude supply. Refining capacity is tight, while moving oil through Hormuz has become dramatically more expensive. An export ban can move barrels around. It can’t manufacture more diesel. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸 A contact close to Trump’s team believes the administration is likely to temporarily restrict U.S. diesel exports before the midterms. The logic is straightforward. Diesel is under extraordinary pressure, and keeping more American supply at home could push domestic prices down quickly. “In the near term, it will absolutely bring those prices down immediately, but it won’t last.” The underlying problem isn’t simply crude supply. Refining capacity is tight, while moving oil through Hormuz has become dramatically more expensive. An export ban can move barrels around. It can’t manufacture more diesel. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

47,964 views • 6 hours ago

Could America’s oil deal in Venezuela be a model for other countries? Secretary Chris Wright, America’s energy secretary, says “if it’s helpful”. He spoke to Charlotte Howard, The Economist’s US editor, on-stage on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Read why the White House may soon announce a nonsensical diesel-export ban:

Could America’s oil deal in Venezuela be a model for other countries? Secretary Chris Wright, America’s energy secretary, says “if it’s helpful”. He spoke to Charlotte Howard, The Economist’s US editor, on-stage on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Read why the White House may soon announce a nonsensical diesel-export ban:

The Economist

31,989 views • 4 days ago

Gas prices aren't following oil down. Here's why. Crude supply is coming back. China stopped absorbing barrels. But refined fuel is different. Gasoline and diesel got drained during the disruption. Refineries can't refill overnight. That gap is the crack spread. Above sixty dollars, it means the bottleneck isn't crude anymore. It's turning crude into usable fuel. Record spreads don't last. Either runs catch up, bottlenecks persist, or demand crashes. Only one of those is good news.

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Jeffrey P. Snider

18,825 views • 2 months ago

🤦‍♂️ Chris Wright is not helping Trump's cause 🤦‍♂️ Energy Secretary Wright did a tour of the Sunday shows this morning and repeatedly stepped in it, including blaming Ukraine for record high diesel prices that are actually a result of Trump's failed war against Iran, and admitting Trump is unlikely at this point to reach any sort of deal to end the war. Here's a supercut:

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Aaron Rupar

74,484 views • 22 days ago

WH Senior Deputy Press Sec: You mentioned diesel and that has to do with what's going on between Russia and Ukraine as the president has noted. Ukraine has attacked Russia's ability to refine diesel and Russia has put on an export ban on diesel. That’s driving up diesel prices.

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Acyn

55,018 views • 12 days ago

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Aaron Rupar

402,958 views • 22 days ago

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Jeffrey P. Snider

89,549 views • 2 months ago

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Julia 🇺🇸

11,837 views • 22 days ago

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Acyn

42,672 views • 19 days ago

China stopped buying oil. Not because it ran out, because it stopped needing it. Crude imports collapsed 41 percent year over year in June. Refinery processing hit its lowest level since March 2020. No lockdown this time. Just a property downturn and a banking system under stress. China was the marginal buyer propping up global oil demand. Without it, exporters discount and reroute cargo just to find buyers. Bearish for crude. But less Chinese refining also means less gasoline, less diesel, less jet fuel reaching the market. Crude is bearish. Fuel can stay tight. Crude moves globally in weeks. Fuel is local and slow. A surplus of crude on a tanker doesn't become gasoline overnight.

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Want cheaper gas and true energy independence? BUILD LIGHT SWEET CRUDE REFINERIES IN AMERICA. For decades, the government's hostility towards fossil fuels has scared everyone away from building the refineries we need to make our own 100% AMERICAN gasoline. Thankfully, Secretary Chris Wright tells me that under Trump, the U.S. is building its first new oil refinery in over half a century, exactly for this: “We do have a new light sweet crude refinery planned to be built in South Texas… But it does take a few years to build, so it won't impact gasoline or diesel prices in the near term. But it's a hugely positive message to the market that a new refinery is coming, tuned exactly for the kind of crude we're producing in South Texas." KEEP IT COMING! DRILL BABY DRILL! AND BUILD BABY BUILD!

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Glenn Beck

97,146 views • 1 month ago

“The UK is going to allow imports of diesel and jet fuel made from Russian crude oil. How do you feel about that?” Skys Sophy Ridge questions Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Dan Tomlinson on government relaxing sanctions on Russian crude oil

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Peter Stefanovic

20,843 views • 4 months ago