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.Ilya Sutskever on why OpenAI gave up on robotics: "Progress comes from the combination of compute and data. There was no path to data from robotics. I'd say that now it is possible to create a path forward, but one needs to really commit. You could imagine a gradual... show more

Dwarkesh Patel

253,436 subscribers

325,893 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Richard

Richardvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut Sounds like the path being created by Tesla autopilot. The cars are essentially robots on wheel. Now, they’re creating humanoid robots.

Profilbild von Bilal

Bilalvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut Good chance he moves to Tesla

Profilbild von wannabe futurist

wannabe futuristvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut @elonmusk - all the more reason you got to bring Ilya to @Tesla

Profilbild von Soon Yeow Lee

Soon Yeow Leevor 2 Jahren

@WholeMarsBlog @ilyasut Ilya’s comment was really eye-opening! OpenAI can only handle LLMs (like ChatGPT), practical AIs (like FSD) are really tough, especially robots (like Optimus). Yet, ironically, these toughest parts are where Elon's projects excel the most. Tesla is truly the big brother of AI.

Profilbild von Tim

Timvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut Talking about @Tesla without talking about Tesla.

Profilbild von Pawel Pachniewski

Pawel Pachniewskivor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut With some paradigm shifts and insights into say, why Moravec's Paradox was ever an issue, we could have made more progress.

Profilbild von Cache Money

Cache Moneyvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut always so insightful whenever Ilya speaks

Profilbild von joswiseman

joswisemanvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut This is naive from people who define robotics as transformed movie or terminators. Robots should be any devices.....phones, cars, buses, laptops, planes...trains...if only you can imagine.

Profilbild von Nodir

Nodirvor 2 Jahren

@ilyasut Maybe you need a really good physics engine to generate synthetic data

Profilbild von Triyansha

Triyanshavor 2 Jahren

the logistical challenges of building even a low cost robotics startup are truly a nightmare. a mentor once told me that while algorithms win software, business model innovation will win hardware wars. if anyone is writing more about this, would love to read more on the topic...DM

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a16z

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wild! Sam Altman said OpenAI are trying to figure out robotics: “If you could pick one thing to make the US competitive at manufacturing, you would say we need robots that can build a lot more robots”

wild! Sam Altman said OpenAI are trying to figure out robotics: “If you could pick one thing to make the US competitive at manufacturing, you would say we need robots that can build a lot more robots”

Damian Player

162,161 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

So many robotics companies trying to solve everything at once… Last year I talked to Nima Gard, Director of AI at Path Robotics about this… Doing one thing really really well. They went after welding. Today they’re introducing Rove™, which embodies Obsidian™ (Path's physical AI model for manufacturing) on a legged mobile platform. The result is the intelligence to autonomously weld with the mobility to bring the worker to the work. Path Robotics (Columbus, Ohio) has raised more than $300 million in venture capital to build autonomous AI-powered welding cells. I think the tech is pretty impressive and video really cool. Congrats guys! Credit: Path Robotics

So many robotics companies trying to solve everything at once… Last year I talked to Nima Gard, Director of AI at Path Robotics about this… Doing one thing really really well. They went after welding. Today they’re introducing Rove™, which embodies Obsidian™ (Path's physical AI model for manufacturing) on a legged mobile platform. The result is the intelligence to autonomously weld with the mobility to bring the worker to the work. Path Robotics (Columbus, Ohio) has raised more than $300 million in venture capital to build autonomous AI-powered welding cells. I think the tech is pretty impressive and video really cool. Congrats guys! Credit: Path Robotics

Ilir Aliu

23,524 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

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We asked Angus about the future of robotics and AI training. “I built an industrial-grade kinematic solver for 6 degrees of freedom motion, with full path planning and joint control." "You can stream AI model outputs into it, or run it like a traditional industrial robot." "The benefit of that is all of that information you can stream and record from those joints… you can use that as the training data." "Frankly, moving a robot with a lever is really crap data for training robots. But this gives you smooth, high-quality motion, without needing two robots.”

TBPN

18,811 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

“There are more companies than ideas by quite a bit. Compute is large enough such that it's not obvious that you need that much more compute to prove some idea. AlexNet was built on 2 GPUs. The transformer was built on 8 to 64 GPUs. Which would be, what, 2 GPUs of today? You could argue that o1 reasoning was not the most compute heavy thing in the world. For research, you definitely need some amount of compute, but it's far from obvious that you need the absolutely largest amount of compute. If everyone is within the same paradigm, then compute becomes one of the big differentiators.” Ilya Sutskever

“There are more companies than ideas by quite a bit. Compute is large enough such that it's not obvious that you need that much more compute to prove some idea. AlexNet was built on 2 GPUs. The transformer was built on 8 to 64 GPUs. Which would be, what, 2 GPUs of today? You could argue that o1 reasoning was not the most compute heavy thing in the world. For research, you definitely need some amount of compute, but it's far from obvious that you need the absolutely largest amount of compute. If everyone is within the same paradigm, then compute becomes one of the big differentiators.” Ilya Sutskever

Dwarkesh Patel

203,605 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

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MTS

17,404 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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Molly O’Shea

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Solana

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ELON MUSK: "With Robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say people often talk about solving global poverty, essentially, how do we make give everyone a very high standard of living? I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics. I mean this, we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. We don't want to be a Terminator, obviously. But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy and expansion the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent."

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Q: "What made you say, 'I want to be a member of Congress now...'?" A: "Because I felt I wasn't doing enough. ... It's sort of unfair to be saying to Democratic office holders, 'You need to do more! You need to do more!,' It's easy to lob stuff in from the sidelines. And so, I'm putting it all on the line."

Q: "What made you say, 'I want to be a member of Congress now...'?" A: "Because I felt I wasn't doing enough. ... It's sort of unfair to be saying to Democratic office holders, 'You need to do more! You need to do more!,' It's easy to lob stuff in from the sidelines. And so, I'm putting it all on the line."

George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸

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_victorad

18,903 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

#WATCH | Chicago, US: Chairman of Indian Overseas Congress, Sam Pitroda says, "...This is a policy issue. Congress party would frame a policy through which the wealth distribution would be better...We don't have a minimum wage (in India)...If we come up with a minimum wage in the country saying you must pay so much money to the poor, that's the distribution of wealth. Today, rich people don't pay their peons, servants, and home help enough but they spend that money on vacation in Dubai and London...When you talk about the distribution of wealth, it is not that you sit on a chair and say I have this much money and I'll be distributing it to everybody. It's naive to think like that. The PM of a country thinks like that, that means I got some concerns about his brain...You are really dealing with the policy issues to redistribute wealth and when you ask for the data, you are really trying to understand what is the distribution today. We don't have good data on all this. I think we need data to decide on policy issues. We don't need data to distribute wealth. We need data to decide on policy issues going forward..."

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ANI

244,501 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

.Anish Acharya says the future of AI isn’t one model to rule them all—and explains why platforms that integrate multiple models will benefit the most: "I think we're going to need and rely on all of the models." "It's sort of like if you have a team of people... if you have five people, they could all do a basic set of things pretty capably." "But then they all have their specializations. Maybe one of them is really good at closing a customer who doesn't want to sign the deal, and one of them is really good at culture and getting the best out of the team." "There are some areas in which they are going to build apps, and that will be a threat to app companies. But there are many areas in which app companies are advantaged. Cursor and Krea are great examples of this—products where you benefit from being multi-model." "When you actually use a creative tool, you don't want to just use Nano Banana, you want to have access to OpenAI, Nano Banana, Kling—all of them—Qwen, you name it. So using a single interface to access all the models is powerful." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

.Anish Acharya says the future of AI isn’t one model to rule them all—and explains why platforms that integrate multiple models will benefit the most: "I think we're going to need and rely on all of the models." "It's sort of like if you have a team of people... if you have five people, they could all do a basic set of things pretty capably." "But then they all have their specializations. Maybe one of them is really good at closing a customer who doesn't want to sign the deal, and one of them is really good at culture and getting the best out of the team." "There are some areas in which they are going to build apps, and that will be a threat to app companies. But there are many areas in which app companies are advantaged. Cursor and Krea are great examples of this—products where you benefit from being multi-model." "When you actually use a creative tool, you don't want to just use Nano Banana, you want to have access to OpenAI, Nano Banana, Kling—all of them—Qwen, you name it. So using a single interface to access all the models is powerful." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

a16z

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jiwoong is officially debuting in zerobaseone, its been a really long journey for you , but you never gave up trying to chase your dream , and now you make it after years of tying , i hope you'll always walk on the flowery path from now on , lets shine more idol jiwoong

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Axis Robotics

22,634 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen on why the shift from software AI to physical AI will create the biggest industry in human history: AI today is software. You open ChatGPT on your phone, and there's no manufacturing component, no real generator of middle-class jobs. But Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 argues that a second, far more consequential turn is coming: the shift to embodied physical AI. "There's another turn on AI that's coming, which is the turn to embodied physical AI, which is robotics." This transition, he points out, has already begun. Drones went from human-piloted to fully autonomous. Cars went from purely physical products to rolling computers that drive themselves. "If you ever have the misfortune of finding yourself in San Francisco, take a Waymo. It's amazing to live in a cyberpunk future reality where you're in literally a state-of-the-art self-driving car that's literally out of the Jetsons." He makes clear: this isn't science fiction anymore. The self-driving car really works, and it's only the beginning. The next frontier is humanoid robots. "The general purpose robotics thing is going to happen. And it's going to happen in the next decade and it's going to happen at giant scale." Andreessen shares Elon Musk's view that robotics could become the single biggest industry in the history of the planet: "There's going to be billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of robots of all shapes, sizes, descriptions running around doing all kinds of things." And all of those robots need to be designed and built. Which brings Andreessen to his core argument: the real opportunity isn't in trying to recover what was lost. It's in leaning forward into what's coming. "We don't try to get the old manufacturing jobs back. What we should do is lean hard into the manufacturing jobs of the future."

a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen on why the shift from software AI to physical AI will create the biggest industry in human history: AI today is software. You open ChatGPT on your phone, and there's no manufacturing component, no real generator of middle-class jobs. But Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 argues that a second, far more consequential turn is coming: the shift to embodied physical AI. "There's another turn on AI that's coming, which is the turn to embodied physical AI, which is robotics." This transition, he points out, has already begun. Drones went from human-piloted to fully autonomous. Cars went from purely physical products to rolling computers that drive themselves. "If you ever have the misfortune of finding yourself in San Francisco, take a Waymo. It's amazing to live in a cyberpunk future reality where you're in literally a state-of-the-art self-driving car that's literally out of the Jetsons." He makes clear: this isn't science fiction anymore. The self-driving car really works, and it's only the beginning. The next frontier is humanoid robots. "The general purpose robotics thing is going to happen. And it's going to happen in the next decade and it's going to happen at giant scale." Andreessen shares Elon Musk's view that robotics could become the single biggest industry in the history of the planet: "There's going to be billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of robots of all shapes, sizes, descriptions running around doing all kinds of things." And all of those robots need to be designed and built. Which brings Andreessen to his core argument: the real opportunity isn't in trying to recover what was lost. It's in leaning forward into what's coming. "We don't try to get the old manufacturing jobs back. What we should do is lean hard into the manufacturing jobs of the future."

Big Brain AI

35,113 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Greg Brockman talks about when OpenAI first realized that AGI can't be achieved with "Non-Profit" status and the decided to abandon its Non-Profit roots. "In 2017, we started to think very hard about, first of all, how do we really achieve the mission? How do we actually build an AGI? What will that look like? And we started to do the math on compute. You start to realize that it is going to take a big computer. We came across a company called Cerebras, which was building a unique piece of computing hardware. The kind of computer that they were promising, we realized, was going to be far advanced from where our compute calculations looked. As you start to realize, if we could buy a lot of those computers, we could actually probably succeed at building an AGI. If we could get exclusive access to Cerebras, that could give us an overwhelming advantage. If we could buy very large data centers, that could be something unique as well. The thing about nonprofit fundraising is that I think there is essentially a cap to what is possible there. And so Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed that the only path forward for OpenAI, and the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI in some form. And so, we were committed to that direction. That is something that we knew was the only way to achieve the mission." --- From "The Knowledge Project Podcast" YT Channel (link in comment)

Greg Brockman talks about when OpenAI first realized that AGI can't be achieved with "Non-Profit" status and the decided to abandon its Non-Profit roots. "In 2017, we started to think very hard about, first of all, how do we really achieve the mission? How do we actually build an AGI? What will that look like? And we started to do the math on compute. You start to realize that it is going to take a big computer. We came across a company called Cerebras, which was building a unique piece of computing hardware. The kind of computer that they were promising, we realized, was going to be far advanced from where our compute calculations looked. As you start to realize, if we could buy a lot of those computers, we could actually probably succeed at building an AGI. If we could get exclusive access to Cerebras, that could give us an overwhelming advantage. If we could buy very large data centers, that could be something unique as well. The thing about nonprofit fundraising is that I think there is essentially a cap to what is possible there. And so Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed that the only path forward for OpenAI, and the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI in some form. And so, we were committed to that direction. That is something that we knew was the only way to achieve the mission." --- From "The Knowledge Project Podcast" YT Channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

10,311 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Saying "NO AI data centers" won't end in victory. They'll just build them anyways. If you truly want to make a difference, you need to say, "No data centers, UNLESS..." Turn it into a negotiation instead of a war, so we can fight over what really matters. No data centers UNLESS they're not draining our energy. In fact, you could say, "you want 10 gigawatts of power? Ok, YOU pay for it. And because we’re allowing you to do it, you have to produce 15 gigawatts of power and give the excess to the grid." It's a win-win and YOU control the terms.

Saying "NO AI data centers" won't end in victory. They'll just build them anyways. If you truly want to make a difference, you need to say, "No data centers, UNLESS..." Turn it into a negotiation instead of a war, so we can fight over what really matters. No data centers UNLESS they're not draining our energy. In fact, you could say, "you want 10 gigawatts of power? Ok, YOU pay for it. And because we’re allowing you to do it, you have to produce 15 gigawatts of power and give the excess to the grid." It's a win-win and YOU control the terms.

Glenn Beck

70,769 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten