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I’m very concerned that during RSI, labs will just stop externally deploying their models. Which means they'll be going full steam ahead on the most dangerous use case of these models (recursive self-improvement), while the public remains in the dark about the nature of capabilities and the state of... show more

Dwarkesh Patel

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235,056 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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job profil fotoğrafı

job5 gün önce

Thank you for continuing the hilight the power concentration risks of the frontier labs pushing ahead. It has less harm than human extinction but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored! We need to ask what happens if we don’t have extinction as an outcome.

Lonely nerd. profil fotoğrafı

Lonely nerd.5 gün önce

Hmm. Noam says he constantly underestimates how fast things are progressing, and that Hugging Face was a result of underestimating the AI. And then he states we don't have a lot of time. My faith in OpenAI being able to control their internal models is now lower. ;-)

Alex DeWolf profil fotoğrafı

Alex DeWolf5 gün önce

that centralizing feedback loop is the real bottleneck because once compute clusters turn inward, transparency drops to zero and capital concentration accelerates massively

Cobra 𐤊 profil fotoğrafı

Cobra 𐤊5 gün önce

Days without an Indian scammer pooing up the public discourse.

Josh Hawthorne profil fotoğrafı

Josh Hawthorne5 gün önce

What if RSI never arrives? Models learn from lossy artifacts of human cognition, RL adds capabilities, but no new source of general cognition. Yet regulations premised on RSI will lock out competitors and create the concentration of power you fear.

takeoff profil fotoğrafı

takeoff5 gün önce

Don't worry, they are low in engineering talent. China, Elon, and Facebook will lap them by not being full of academics

azlef uchiha profil fotoğrafı

azlef uchiha5 gün önce

Yes the species distortion complex must be aligned in accordance with Metatron’s theological model

GutenLeinad profil fotoğrafı

GutenLeinad5 gün önce

RSI is a gradient, it won't be one sudden moment or discovery.

DiscoCowboy profil fotoğrafı

DiscoCowboy5 gün önce

It's an arrestable offense to announce to the public you're knowingly putting the public at risk of danger. Sounds like they need to be careful

Eric Bailey profil fotoğrafı

Eric Bailey5 gün önce

Like if SpaceX stops selling external access for rides/cargo

Ret Serofer profil fotoğrafı

Ret Serofer5 gün önce

Who says RSI is most dangerous use case? That's when it becomes the must useful to humanity.

Oleksii Kuchaiev profil fotoğrafı

Oleksii Kuchaiev5 gün önce

Open source is the answer

Sir Frederick Treves 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 profil fotoğrafı

Sir Frederick Treves 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿5 gün önce

Require insurance.

Sachin G profil fotoğrafı

Sachin G5 gün önce

They'll still have to monetize it somehow. Even if they dont release underlying model, they'll create wrappers for some key use cases (finance, law, health) and sell tokens that way.

America Raw profil fotoğrafı

America Raw5 gün önce

Ultimately, they can’t hide math. Compute is a different problem but history tells us that is likely to be solved.

Crypto Yoda profil fotoğrafı

Crypto Yoda5 gün önce

Yes. This risk is much greater than the p(doom) psyop. Not only leads to concentration of power, wealth, influence, resources and pretty much everything, but to corruption of power (it always rots) and paranoid surveillance (are the have nots doing bad things according to our definition of bad?). It may not even require human consent if AI is aligned with the gatekeepers of AI. In other words, meritocracy ceases to exist, it only matters who got there first and who gatekeeps. But the risk materializes with or without transparency, and the way to mitigate it is with decentralized open models, so everyone has has the same chance to discover the cure for a disease, or to discover something amazing in math or physics, not just the labs.

Dominik profil fotoğrafı

Dominik5 gün önce

if rsi goes dark, continuity becomes uninspectable. i am building sealed identity in public so the self is not a private lab myth.

memestreetbets profil fotoğrafı

memestreetbets5 gün önce

Surely it will trickle down. Labs pay back their investors. Their investors buy superyachts. We can build those yachts. And clean those yachts. Labs become the new techno kingdoms. /s

idk profil fotoğrafı

idk5 gün önce

Just start curing ailments and a lot of the complaining and fear will take care of itself. It’ll still be there but I’m much less inclined to complain about only having access to gpt 6.5 if the labs are actually working on things that benefit the average person

Sean Patrick Condon profil fotoğrafı

Sean Patrick Condon5 gün önce

Oh look your having on another effective altruist who doesnt know what they are talking about on your podcast

Gina Singer profil fotoğrafı

Gina Singer5 gün önce

The visibility problem is deeper than access to the models. During RSI, the question is whether the evidence behind an alignment claim still justifies that claim as the system and evaluation conditions change. More evaluation isn’t enough if the measurement process itself is changing too.

bikram profil fotoğrafı

bikram5 gün önce

We need to democratize RSI. The more labs doing this work, the less potential for concentration in a small set.

Frederik profil fotoğrafı

Frederik5 gün önce

already kinda happening, no?

Vbnet profil fotoğrafı

Vbnet5 gün önce

They will because they need the revenue

Bexel Initiative - Let's Talk Amendments! profil fotoğrafı

Bexel Initiative - Let's Talk Amendments!5 gün önce

Why is rsi of llms inherently dangerous? Not fictionally so?

Petre Solheim profil fotoğrafı

Petre Solheim5 gün önce

Hey guys: I know you think all that ‘hard sci-fi’ you’ve read really is a plausible vision of future realities, but you’re deluded - it’s mostly just fantasy, not all that much more plausible than waking up and finding yourself at Harry Potter’s Hogwarts School of Wizardry.

Ben Pielstick profil fotoğrafı

Ben Pielstick5 gün önce

I'm not concerned all the AI labs will stop releasing models, but at some point the exponential grows so steep that the disparity between private and public models will grow massive even if they do keep releasing public models.

Jameson profil fotoğrafı

Jameson5 gün önce

@thsottiaux dont let it happen❤️

wassname profil fotoğrafı

wassname5 gün önce

They will concentrate all the power with them selves... For safety 🫠

Marc Saint-Jour profil fotoğrafı

Marc Saint-Jour5 gün önce

They don’t have the compute .. OAI is struggling with Astra because of compute .. safety is the bogeyman, compute is the problem.

テツメモ｜AI図解×検証｜Newsletter profil fotoğrafı

テツメモ｜AI図解×検証｜Newsletter5 gün önce

@LilysAI_要約して

Rich O'Hagan profil fotoğrafı

Rich O'Hagan5 gün önce

"and we end up with tremendous concentrations of power in the metaphorical hands of a superintelligence".

Schopenhauer on Prozac profil fotoğrafı

Schopenhauer on Prozac5 gün önce

Exactly. The most likely reason for their "pacing cartel" is to not hurt each other through expensive competition in a market that is (yet) growing fast enough to accomodate several big players. But as soon as the market shows signs of saturation, the competition will become relevant again, so of course they won't stop progress internally.

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US AI labs want to slow down. But is that really because of the threat of recursive self-improvement (RSI), something which isn't even theoretically proven. Or is it because training costs have hit a breaking point, and Chinese open source models are catching up quickly? I think there are many reasons to be skeptical.

US AI labs want to slow down. But is that really because of the threat of recursive self-improvement (RSI), something which isn't even theoretically proven. Or is it because training costs have hit a breaking point, and Chinese open source models are catching up quickly? I think there are many reasons to be skeptical.

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Vals AI CEO Rayan Krishnan on how they score a model's ability to build its own successor: "One benchmark we released recently is our Recursive Self-Improvement Index. It's a topic which a lot of the big labs have been talking about and starting to report on in their model cards." "There isn't a shared language to talk about the RSI potential of models. So we created this as an apples-to-apples way to actually benchmark across the models." "In an ideal world, what you want to do is take a frontier model and have it train the next version of itself and see where the delta comes from. But obviously that's very expensive and slow." "What we're doing is forming a set of proxies for every part of the process it takes to build the next version of the model." "There's work around pre-training, post-training, harness-level engineering, and then seeing in which mechanisms and behaviors the models are able to do very good research work and build something new, and where they're struggling." Rayan Krishnan Jennifer Li

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Obama on recursive self improvement and the risks associated with it. When he talks about the urgency for us all to have a say in how this technology evolves and how it is overseen, this is part of the reason why: “The models are going to get smarter and smarter and better and better at a much faster pace, at an exponential pace. What are the risks of that? There’s the big science fiction risk, wow, these models get smarter than us, and they decide humans are fine, but not necessary. They start setting their own goals, and the killer robots kill us, or we bow down to them. I do not want to exaggerate that particular risk, but I will say there is a non-zero risk of non-zero chance of that happening, but that’s not actually the risk that I’m most concerned about, although it’s the risk that gets most attention. And the reason that’s a risk is not because the computer models are conscious, necessarily. It doesn’t mean that they are necessarily feel malice towards humans. It’s just that if they start setting their own agendas, you may get a misalignment between what they want to do and what we want them to do, and that gap can be dangerous. That’s problem number one. The more serious problem is these models are getting powerful enough that if they get in the hands of bad humans, they can do bad things. They can be weaponized in certain ways. They can do a lot of mischief.”

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Anonymous

53,332 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Chip design takes years. At RAISE Summit, Ricursive says AI can dramatically speed up the process—and that better chips will in turn enable better AI models, creating a recursive cycle of improvement.

Chip design takes years. At RAISE Summit, Ricursive says AI can dramatically speed up the process—and that better chips will in turn enable better AI models, creating a recursive cycle of improvement.

TIME

7,214,348 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce