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In a dramatic shift from stratospheric warming and major early-mid December US cold waves #natgas , any chance for the #polarvortex to move south is unlikely with big time warmth into January as the AO index goes position #naturalgas. Notice the stratospheric cooling (blue) #Futures #WINTER Special updates here:

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Another polar vortex disruption is forecast for early February, linked to a developing sudden stratospheric warming event. If it couples downward, it could drive yet more cold Arctic air into the mid-latitudes. Vortex disruptions only redistribute existing cold, however. They do not adequately explain the broader signal we're currently seeing. Right now, temperatures are falling hard across the entire northern hemisphere, reflecting system-wide cooling. The vortex influences where cold air moves, but the overall cooling is separate, driven by widespread energy loss from forcings such as snow-ice feedbacks. They promised warming. Instead, the data show a prolonged, expanding hemisphere-wide ice bath.
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Another polar vortex disruption is forecast for early February, linked to a developing sudden stratospheric warming event. If it couples downward, it could drive yet more cold Arctic air into the mid-latitudes. Vortex disruptions only redistribute existing cold, however. They do not adequately explain the broader signal we're currently seeing. Right now, temperatures are falling hard across the entire northern hemisphere, reflecting system-wide cooling. The vortex influences where cold air moves, but the overall cooling is separate, driven by widespread energy loss from forcings such as snow-ice feedbacks. They promised warming. Instead, the data show a prolonged, expanding hemisphere-wide ice bath.

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January 2026 is delivering sharp cooling across the Northern Hemisphere. The US is enduring record cold and snow driving deep into the south. And conditions in Canada are equally fierce, with Toronto setting an all-time snowfall record. Likewise in Europe, Spain's Sierra Nevada is under meter-deep snow, Germany is firing up old coal power plants to cope, and across transcontinental Russia, snow totals are breaking all-time records in books dating back 147 years. South Asia is enduring rare freezes, with blizzards hitting from India through Pakistan and into Afghanistan, where 61 people died over the weekend. In Japan, Sapporo just logged its heaviest January snow on record in archives dating back to the 1800s. The media blames "global warming" for this hemisphere-wide cold. But history disagrees. Reanalysis shows nearly identical vortex disruptions in 1977, 1978 and 1985 to what's occurring now in 2026. This current cold outbreak is not new. Nor is it driven by global warming. Warming does NOT equal cooling.

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