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In what could be good timing for #Guam, an eyewall replacement cycle has resulted in significant structural deterioration in Typhoon #Mawar over the past 4 hours.

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UW-Madison CIMSS

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131,331 просмотров • 3 лет назад •via X (Twitter)

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After her first eyewall replacement attempt resulted in a merger that pushed her to a 165 MPH, 913 mbar peak, Super Typhoon Bavi is finally in the throes of a true EWRC. The thick and persistent nature of her inner core is still protecting a stellar Stadium Effect in the eye, but her infrared satellite signature shows a textbook EWRC structure developing, with a pronounced moat thawing out between the colder, dueling eyewalls. Confidence for a direct or near-direct landfall over the tiny island of Rota continues to increase today; however, Guam should keep a very close eye out for any consistent southward jogs in Bavi’s motion. Even a small deviation could expose the 165,000 residents there to high-end Category 4 or 5 winds.
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After her first eyewall replacement attempt resulted in a merger that pushed her to a 165 MPH, 913 mbar peak, Super Typhoon Bavi is finally in the throes of a true EWRC. The thick and persistent nature of her inner core is still protecting a stellar Stadium Effect in the eye, but her infrared satellite signature shows a textbook EWRC structure developing, with a pronounced moat thawing out between the colder, dueling eyewalls. Confidence for a direct or near-direct landfall over the tiny island of Rota continues to increase today; however, Guam should keep a very close eye out for any consistent southward jogs in Bavi’s motion. Even a small deviation could expose the 165,000 residents there to high-end Category 4 or 5 winds.

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Almost all Major Hurricanes undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. Melissa never did. She sustained CATEGORY 5 status for 35 consecutive hours, the 8TH longest total duration of Cat 5 winds ever documented in an Atlantic Hurricane, and the longest since Hurricane Irma in 2017. Instead of initiating replacement cycles, Melissa underwent eyewall mergers, which caused only short-lived pauses in her intensification and allowed her to incrementally climb to an extreme strength as she slowly writhed towards Jamaica. It is exceptionally rare to see a high-level Hurricane eye remain so perfectly circular and clear for so many days on end.
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