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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's bet is that dragging this into the midterms squeezes Trump politically. Trita Parsi thinks that bet may be backwards, and he's not saying it as a critic of Tehran. Iran isn't rushing back to the table because returning on demand would let Trump treat war and diplomacy... show more

Mario Nawfal

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74,391 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A humiliated Trump after the midterms may be more willing to strike Iran, not less. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says Tehran expects a weakened president to be easier to handle, and he thinks that reads the man backwards. He points to late 2020, when he says Trump went looking for a confrontation with Iran and the Joint Chiefs stepped in to stop it: "This is an administration whose strategic compass is the mood of the president on any given day." Trita Parsi

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A humiliated Trump after the midterms may be more willing to strike Iran, not less. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says Tehran expects a weakened president to be easier to handle, and he thinks that reads the man backwards. He points to late 2020, when he says Trump went looking for a confrontation with Iran and the Joint Chiefs stepped in to stop it: "This is an administration whose strategic compass is the mood of the president on any given day." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait to prove it could escalate harder than the U.S. was comfortable with, and it worked. Trita Parsi breaks down how both sides may be quietly climbing down. "The pain of that status quo was mainly on the Iranian side. The Iranians escalated to spread the pain." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait to prove it could escalate harder than the U.S. was comfortable with, and it worked. Trita Parsi breaks down how both sides may be quietly climbing down. "The pain of that status quo was mainly on the Iranian side. The Iranians escalated to spread the pain." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

82,453 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already blinked first and now both sides may finally have a real chance to end 47 years of conflict. Trita Parsi, expert in international relations, says Iran sent the highest-level delegation he has ever seen because Tehran is not just trying to end the war. It wants real sanctions relief and a path out of decades of economic warfare. He says Trump can now walk away from war, but Iran also sees this as a once-in-a-generation chance to reset the entire relationship. Trita Parsi search. ..

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already blinked first and now both sides may finally have a real chance to end 47 years of conflict. Trita Parsi, expert in international relations, says Iran sent the highest-level delegation he has ever seen because Tehran is not just trying to end the war. It wants real sanctions relief and a path out of decades of economic warfare. He says Trump can now walk away from war, but Iran also sees this as a once-in-a-generation chance to reset the entire relationship. Trita Parsi search. ..

Mario Nawfal

124,502 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

"The Israelis have fought so hard to get the United States to go into a full-scale war with Iran for more than 20 years," says Trita Parsi. "It is in their interest to prolong this war as long as they can, and kill off any potential off-ramps that Trump may be looking for."

"The Israelis have fought so hard to get the United States to go into a full-scale war with Iran for more than 20 years," says Trita Parsi. "It is in their interest to prolong this war as long as they can, and kill off any potential off-ramps that Trump may be looking for."

Democracy Now!

44,042 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already threw everything he had at the Iranian regime. It didn't change anything. Trita Parsi explains why going back to war would be a catastrophic mistake. "To gamble that away by going back into a war again, based on some sort of a fantasy that a knockout strike is in the cards, it would be just astonishingly foolish in my view." Trump has a ceasefire. The only question is whether he's smart enough to keep it. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already threw everything he had at the Iranian regime. It didn't change anything. Trita Parsi explains why going back to war would be a catastrophic mistake. "To gamble that away by going back into a war again, based on some sort of a fantasy that a knockout strike is in the cards, it would be just astonishingly foolish in my view." Trump has a ceasefire. The only question is whether he's smart enough to keep it. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

68,176 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Netanyahu's blood pressure went up when he found out. Trita Parsi breaks down how Kushner, Vance, and Wyckoff pushed for a deal with Iran while Rubio and others demanded strikes, with Trump siding with the diplomacy camp. "If they cannot deliver Trump, it doesn't matter if they want diplomacy, it doesn't matter if they're close to Netanyahu or not." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Netanyahu's blood pressure went up when he found out. Trita Parsi breaks down how Kushner, Vance, and Wyckoff pushed for a deal with Iran while Rubio and others demanded strikes, with Trump siding with the diplomacy camp. "If they cannot deliver Trump, it doesn't matter if they want diplomacy, it doesn't matter if they're close to Netanyahu or not." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

344,728 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped every demand except the nuclear weapons one, and that may be the key to avoiding war. Trita Parsi broke down why this shift in tone changes everything. "That may prove to be absolutely crucial, because that was the original red line that he had a year and a half ago. And had he stuck with that red line and not shifted to the Israeli red line of no enrichment, then there wouldn't have been a war back in the summer in the first place." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped every demand except the nuclear weapons one, and that may be the key to avoiding war. Trita Parsi broke down why this shift in tone changes everything. "That may prove to be absolutely crucial, because that was the original red line that he had a year and a half ago. And had he stuck with that red line and not shifted to the Israeli red line of no enrichment, then there wouldn't have been a war back in the summer in the first place." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

63,087 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may not actually be trying to solve the Iran crisis right now. According to Trita Parsi, the more likely strategy is to keep it quiet. No major diplomacy. No major escalation. No Iran headlines dominating American politics before the midterms. Parsi argues that Washington’s new sanctions may therefore be deliberately limited: enough pressure to look aggressive, but not enough to provoke the Iranian retaliation the administration knows could follow. The problem is that this only postpones the underlying conflict. Iran still refuses to return to an agreement that leaves Lebanon out, while Israel continues pushing deeper into Lebanon and testing American red lines. And Parsi believes one red line matters in particular: Beirut. If Israel strikes Beirut, he expects Iran to respond directly, especially as Tehran accumulates more reasons to counter-escalate. Then there is the blockade. Parsi argues that as long as Washington maintains a naval blockade on Iran, the war has not actually ended. Without a deal to lift it, the conflict will keep oscillating between diplomacy, economic warfare and renewed military confrontation. Which is why he is not ruling out another U.S.-Iran war after the midterms. Not because it makes strategic sense. But because, as the last round already demonstrated, wars do not always begin because someone has found a convincing path to victory. Sometimes they begin because nobody found a way out. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may not actually be trying to solve the Iran crisis right now. According to Trita Parsi, the more likely strategy is to keep it quiet. No major diplomacy. No major escalation. No Iran headlines dominating American politics before the midterms. Parsi argues that Washington’s new sanctions may therefore be deliberately limited: enough pressure to look aggressive, but not enough to provoke the Iranian retaliation the administration knows could follow. The problem is that this only postpones the underlying conflict. Iran still refuses to return to an agreement that leaves Lebanon out, while Israel continues pushing deeper into Lebanon and testing American red lines. And Parsi believes one red line matters in particular: Beirut. If Israel strikes Beirut, he expects Iran to respond directly, especially as Tehran accumulates more reasons to counter-escalate. Then there is the blockade. Parsi argues that as long as Washington maintains a naval blockade on Iran, the war has not actually ended. Without a deal to lift it, the conflict will keep oscillating between diplomacy, economic warfare and renewed military confrontation. Which is why he is not ruling out another U.S.-Iran war after the midterms. Not because it makes strategic sense. But because, as the last round already demonstrated, wars do not always begin because someone has found a convincing path to victory. Sometimes they begin because nobody found a way out. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

306,041 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 “Their sense is that they are close.” Iran expert Trita Parsi says U.S. officials told him they believe Washington and Tehran are nearing a deal, despite recent tensions over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Parsi said Iran views continued Israeli strikes as a serious red line and is using the issue to test whether President Trump is willing, or able, to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. “If Trump is unwilling or incapable of holding the Israelis back, then what is the value of a deal with the United States?” Trita Parsi | Ryan Grim | Maysa Mustafa

🇮🇷🇺🇸 “Their sense is that they are close.” Iran expert Trita Parsi says U.S. officials told him they believe Washington and Tehran are nearing a deal, despite recent tensions over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Parsi said Iran views continued Israeli strikes as a serious red line and is using the issue to test whether President Trump is willing, or able, to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. “If Trump is unwilling or incapable of holding the Israelis back, then what is the value of a deal with the United States?” Trita Parsi | Ryan Grim | Maysa Mustafa

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 A single 32-second offhand comment may have quietly upended 25 years of Washington consensus on Iran. Trita Parsi breaks down why it was anything but offhand. "The Israelis know that it's false." Trump is laying the groundwork, and he's only just getting started. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 A single 32-second offhand comment may have quietly upended 25 years of Washington consensus on Iran. Trita Parsi breaks down why it was anything but offhand. "The Israelis know that it's false." Trump is laying the groundwork, and he's only just getting started. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

64,338 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi has become considerably more pessimistic about where the Iran war is heading. His assessment is that the current fighting isn't the third round, but both sides preparing for it. If Washington controls the timing, Parsi expects another war after the U.S. midterms, likely with Israel directly involved. If Tehran controls the timing, he believes Iran may strike first before the midterms rather than allow Washington to choose the battlefield and moment. That changes how he interprets what we're seeing now. Iran isn't merely retaliating. Parsi believes it is testing weapons and degrading U.S. interception capabilities around Jordan to prepare the battlefield for heavier strikes on Israel later. Meanwhile, he fears Washington may conclude that sanctions and limited warfare failed because it simply wasn't aggressive enough. And unlike previous interviews, Parsi sees almost no obvious exit ramp. “This is probably one of the darkest situations I can recall.” He now puts the probability of another round of war at 80-85%. And if Israel joins it without the restraints Washington imposed previously, Parsi expects round three to be considerably worse than anything we've seen so far. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi has become considerably more pessimistic about where the Iran war is heading. His assessment is that the current fighting isn't the third round, but both sides preparing for it. If Washington controls the timing, Parsi expects another war after the U.S. midterms, likely with Israel directly involved. If Tehran controls the timing, he believes Iran may strike first before the midterms rather than allow Washington to choose the battlefield and moment. That changes how he interprets what we're seeing now. Iran isn't merely retaliating. Parsi believes it is testing weapons and degrading U.S. interception capabilities around Jordan to prepare the battlefield for heavier strikes on Israel later. Meanwhile, he fears Washington may conclude that sanctions and limited warfare failed because it simply wasn't aggressive enough. And unlike previous interviews, Parsi sees almost no obvious exit ramp. “This is probably one of the darkest situations I can recall.” He now puts the probability of another round of war at 80-85%. And if Israel joins it without the restraints Washington imposed previously, Parsi expects round three to be considerably worse than anything we've seen so far. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

311,608 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trita Parsi put a number on it: better than 80% odds the fighting escalates past March and April's intensity, inside the next month. He's clear it isn't there yet. Fewer targets, lower tempo. He just doesn't think the direction is in question. "Some of the nightmare scenarios we talked about last time that did not happen are happening now, which means that some of the other ones that did not happen may happen as well" Parsi says that restraint is gone. Whatever gets hit now, Iran intends to hit something equivalent back. Escalation risk accepted rather than avoided. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trita Parsi put a number on it: better than 80% odds the fighting escalates past March and April's intensity, inside the next month. He's clear it isn't there yet. Fewer targets, lower tempo. He just doesn't think the direction is in question. "Some of the nightmare scenarios we talked about last time that did not happen are happening now, which means that some of the other ones that did not happen may happen as well" Parsi says that restraint is gone. Whatever gets hit now, Iran intends to hit something equivalent back. Escalation risk accepted rather than avoided. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

21,455 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

31,879 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi believes the current U.S.-Iran exchanges aren’t another round of the war yet. They are preparation for one. “A lot of the things that we’re seeing right now is, frankly, testing new weapons, new system preparedness.” His concern is that both sides may now prefer different timelines for the same escalation: Washington after the U.S. midterms, Tehran before them, potentially through a preemptive move designed to deny America the initiative. Parsi sees little evidence either side is building an exit ramp. They may instead be positioning themselves to decide who fires first. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi believes the current U.S.-Iran exchanges aren’t another round of the war yet. They are preparation for one. “A lot of the things that we’re seeing right now is, frankly, testing new weapons, new system preparedness.” His concern is that both sides may now prefer different timelines for the same escalation: Washington after the U.S. midterms, Tehran before them, potentially through a preemptive move designed to deny America the initiative. Parsi sees little evidence either side is building an exit ramp. They may instead be positioning themselves to decide who fires first. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

58,968 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has carried out thousands of strikes on the UAE since the war began, and it calls that letting it off the hook. Trita Parsi talked about how the war is aggravating tensions in the Middle East while Israel capitalizes on the chaos to bring max pain to Iran. "There could very well be scenarios where they will try to sabotage the talks." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has carried out thousands of strikes on the UAE since the war began, and it calls that letting it off the hook. Trita Parsi talked about how the war is aggravating tensions in the Middle East while Israel capitalizes on the chaos to bring max pain to Iran. "There could very well be scenarios where they will try to sabotage the talks." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

43,340 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

TRITA PARSI: There was a segment of the Iranian people that seemed to welcome this conflict because they were just so sick and tired of this theocracy. But those sentiments seem to have shifted very fast as it's become clear to them that this is a war on the country, not a war on the regime. Trita Parsi

TRITA PARSI: There was a segment of the Iranian people that seemed to welcome this conflict because they were just so sick and tired of this theocracy. But those sentiments seem to have shifted very fast as it's become clear to them that this is a war on the country, not a war on the regime. Trita Parsi

Bannon’s WarRoom

28,098 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran wants full sanctions relief. Israel wants Iran economically crippled for decades. That conflict of interest is why Trump would have to fight Netanyahu, Miriam Adelson, and Mark Levin all at once to close a deal with Iran. And it's why Trita Parsi thinks there's only a 25% chance the U.S. closes a peace deal with Iran in the forseeable future. "It's not that I don't believe that he can win that fight. It's whether I believe that he is willing to have that fight." Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran wants full sanctions relief. Israel wants Iran economically crippled for decades. That conflict of interest is why Trump would have to fight Netanyahu, Miriam Adelson, and Mark Levin all at once to close a deal with Iran. And it's why Trita Parsi thinks there's only a 25% chance the U.S. closes a peace deal with Iran in the forseeable future. "It's not that I don't believe that he can win that fight. It's whether I believe that he is willing to have that fight." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

81,121 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi: America may be backing itself into a forever war with Iran Nobody announces a forever war. They just start talking about “periodic strikes.” Axios reports the U.S. is considering repeatedly hitting Iranian radar, air defenses and anti-ship capabilities to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz. To Trita Parsi, that language gives the game away. If America must bomb Iran every few weeks or months simply to keep the situation manageable, then Washington no longer has a strategy for ending the war. It has a strategy for maintaining it. And the remarkable part is how quickly Washington got here. Barely 10 days ago, the new plan was economic warfare: squeeze Iran, keep the shooting quiet and wait until after the midterms. Now military strikes are back on the table. Parsi calls it “complete strategic disarray.” The bigger danger is that Tehran appears to be reaching its own conclusion. Parsi says Iranian officials increasingly expect a third round of war anyway and are debating whether Iran should strike first rather than once again allowing Washington to choose the timing. Both sides now think they have the advantage. Neither appears interested in compromise. And Parsi says regional leaders increasingly believe the diplomatic path is closed. An off-ramp? Rather two countries arguing over who gets to start the next round. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trita Parsi: America may be backing itself into a forever war with Iran Nobody announces a forever war. They just start talking about “periodic strikes.” Axios reports the U.S. is considering repeatedly hitting Iranian radar, air defenses and anti-ship capabilities to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz. To Trita Parsi, that language gives the game away. If America must bomb Iran every few weeks or months simply to keep the situation manageable, then Washington no longer has a strategy for ending the war. It has a strategy for maintaining it. And the remarkable part is how quickly Washington got here. Barely 10 days ago, the new plan was economic warfare: squeeze Iran, keep the shooting quiet and wait until after the midterms. Now military strikes are back on the table. Parsi calls it “complete strategic disarray.” The bigger danger is that Tehran appears to be reaching its own conclusion. Parsi says Iranian officials increasingly expect a third round of war anyway and are debating whether Iran should strike first rather than once again allowing Washington to choose the timing. Both sides now think they have the advantage. Neither appears interested in compromise. And Parsi says regional leaders increasingly believe the diplomatic path is closed. An off-ramp? Rather two countries arguing over who gets to start the next round. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

288,518 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Striking a country dramatically increases their determination to build a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, and every previous president understood that paradox. Trita Parsi argues the calculus has now shifted toward those inside Iran who want the bomb. "If you were to bomb them, you would maximize the likelihood that they would get a bomb." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Striking a country dramatically increases their determination to build a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, and every previous president understood that paradox. Trita Parsi argues the calculus has now shifted toward those inside Iran who want the bomb. "If you were to bomb them, you would maximize the likelihood that they would get a bomb." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

38,181 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇦🇪 Iran used Dubai as part of its strategy to survive American sanctions, then bombed it anyway. Trita Parsi broke down his view of why this may have been a painful choice for Iran. "The Iranians were using the Emirates as the key way of circumventing sanctions. They had been for years relying on Dubai. The relationship between Dubai and Iran has gone back long and has tended to be very positive." Trita Parsi

🚨🇮🇷🇦🇪 Iran used Dubai as part of its strategy to survive American sanctions, then bombed it anyway. Trita Parsi broke down his view of why this may have been a painful choice for Iran. "The Iranians were using the Emirates as the key way of circumventing sanctions. They had been for years relying on Dubai. The relationship between Dubai and Iran has gone back long and has tended to be very positive." Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

22,574 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce